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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. No updates were required at 20Z. See previous discussion. ..Jewell.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity. RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts. ...Elsewhere... The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for additional lightning appears minimal. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly from Lower Michigan eastward across Lake Erie on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A broad area of west/southwest flow aloft will extend from the Southwest across the Plains and into the Great Lakes on Wednesday, with cooling aloft from the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves into western Ontario late. Meanwhile, weak ridging will occur from the Southeast into the Mid Atlantic as an upper trough exits the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move quickly from northern MO toward the lower Great Lakes with a cold front extending from OH into central TX by 12Z Thursday. Low-level moisture will increase across the lower to middle MS Valley as south winds increase ahead of the cold front, with a narrow plume of near-60 F dewpoints as far northeast as OH. The combination of sufficient moisture and lift may yield weak elevated instability near and north of the cold front, with sporadic non-severe thunderstorms anticipated. ...Lower MI eastward across Lake Erie... Strengthening west/southwesterly winds will help transport moisture northeastward ahead of the cold front on Wednesday, but low-level lapse rates/heating look to be poor, resulting in a capped air mass. With time, persistent 30-40 kt winds around 850 mb and the approaching upper low will lead to weak elevated instability sufficient for scattered convection. The most likely area will be from Lake MI and Lower MI during the day, with bands of showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms expanding eastward across Lake Erie late. Elsewhere, southern parts of the front from eastern OK into AR could result in showers mainly north of the boundary after 03Z, but will maintain less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities as flash density should remain quite low given weak lift with only an undercutting front. ..Jewell.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly from Lower Michigan eastward across Lake Erie on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A broad area of west/southwest flow aloft will extend from the Southwest across the Plains and into the Great Lakes on Wednesday, with cooling aloft from the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves into western Ontario late. Meanwhile, weak ridging will occur from the Southeast into the Mid Atlantic as an upper trough exits the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move quickly from northern MO toward the lower Great Lakes with a cold front extending from OH into central TX by 12Z Thursday. Low-level moisture will increase across the lower to middle MS Valley as south winds increase ahead of the cold front, with a narrow plume of near-60 F dewpoints as far northeast as OH. The combination of sufficient moisture and lift may yield weak elevated instability near and north of the cold front, with sporadic non-severe thunderstorms anticipated. ...Lower MI eastward across Lake Erie... Strengthening west/southwesterly winds will help transport moisture northeastward ahead of the cold front on Wednesday, but low-level lapse rates/heating look to be poor, resulting in a capped air mass. With time, persistent 30-40 kt winds around 850 mb and the approaching upper low will lead to weak elevated instability sufficient for scattered convection. The most likely area will be from Lake MI and Lower MI during the day, with bands of showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms expanding eastward across Lake Erie late. Elsewhere, southern parts of the front from eastern OK into AR could result in showers mainly north of the boundary after 03Z, but will maintain less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities as flash density should remain quite low given weak lift with only an undercutting front. ..Jewell.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly from Lower Michigan eastward across Lake Erie on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A broad area of west/southwest flow aloft will extend from the Southwest across the Plains and into the Great Lakes on Wednesday, with cooling aloft from the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves into western Ontario late. Meanwhile, weak ridging will occur from the Southeast into the Mid Atlantic as an upper trough exits the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move quickly from northern MO toward the lower Great Lakes with a cold front extending from OH into central TX by 12Z Thursday. Low-level moisture will increase across the lower to middle MS Valley as south winds increase ahead of the cold front, with a narrow plume of near-60 F dewpoints as far northeast as OH. The combination of sufficient moisture and lift may yield weak elevated instability near and north of the cold front, with sporadic non-severe thunderstorms anticipated. ...Lower MI eastward across Lake Erie... Strengthening west/southwesterly winds will help transport moisture northeastward ahead of the cold front on Wednesday, but low-level lapse rates/heating look to be poor, resulting in a capped air mass. With time, persistent 30-40 kt winds around 850 mb and the approaching upper low will lead to weak elevated instability sufficient for scattered convection. The most likely area will be from Lake MI and Lower MI during the day, with bands of showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms expanding eastward across Lake Erie late. Elsewhere, southern parts of the front from eastern OK into AR could result in showers mainly north of the boundary after 03Z, but will maintain less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities as flash density should remain quite low given weak lift with only an undercutting front. ..Jewell.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly from Lower Michigan eastward across Lake Erie on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A broad area of west/southwest flow aloft will extend from the Southwest across the Plains and into the Great Lakes on Wednesday, with cooling aloft from the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves into western Ontario late. Meanwhile, weak ridging will occur from the Southeast into the Mid Atlantic as an upper trough exits the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move quickly from northern MO toward the lower Great Lakes with a cold front extending from OH into central TX by 12Z Thursday. Low-level moisture will increase across the lower to middle MS Valley as south winds increase ahead of the cold front, with a narrow plume of near-60 F dewpoints as far northeast as OH. The combination of sufficient moisture and lift may yield weak elevated instability near and north of the cold front, with sporadic non-severe thunderstorms anticipated. ...Lower MI eastward across Lake Erie... Strengthening west/southwesterly winds will help transport moisture northeastward ahead of the cold front on Wednesday, but low-level lapse rates/heating look to be poor, resulting in a capped air mass. With time, persistent 30-40 kt winds around 850 mb and the approaching upper low will lead to weak elevated instability sufficient for scattered convection. The most likely area will be from Lake MI and Lower MI during the day, with bands of showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms expanding eastward across Lake Erie late. Elsewhere, southern parts of the front from eastern OK into AR could result in showers mainly north of the boundary after 03Z, but will maintain less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities as flash density should remain quite low given weak lift with only an undercutting front. ..Jewell.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly from Lower Michigan eastward across Lake Erie on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A broad area of west/southwest flow aloft will extend from the Southwest across the Plains and into the Great Lakes on Wednesday, with cooling aloft from the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves into western Ontario late. Meanwhile, weak ridging will occur from the Southeast into the Mid Atlantic as an upper trough exits the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move quickly from northern MO toward the lower Great Lakes with a cold front extending from OH into central TX by 12Z Thursday. Low-level moisture will increase across the lower to middle MS Valley as south winds increase ahead of the cold front, with a narrow plume of near-60 F dewpoints as far northeast as OH. The combination of sufficient moisture and lift may yield weak elevated instability near and north of the cold front, with sporadic non-severe thunderstorms anticipated. ...Lower MI eastward across Lake Erie... Strengthening west/southwesterly winds will help transport moisture northeastward ahead of the cold front on Wednesday, but low-level lapse rates/heating look to be poor, resulting in a capped air mass. With time, persistent 30-40 kt winds around 850 mb and the approaching upper low will lead to weak elevated instability sufficient for scattered convection. The most likely area will be from Lake MI and Lower MI during the day, with bands of showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms expanding eastward across Lake Erie late. Elsewhere, southern parts of the front from eastern OK into AR could result in showers mainly north of the boundary after 03Z, but will maintain less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities as flash density should remain quite low given weak lift with only an undercutting front. ..Jewell.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly from Lower Michigan eastward across Lake Erie on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A broad area of west/southwest flow aloft will extend from the Southwest across the Plains and into the Great Lakes on Wednesday, with cooling aloft from the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves into western Ontario late. Meanwhile, weak ridging will occur from the Southeast into the Mid Atlantic as an upper trough exits the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move quickly from northern MO toward the lower Great Lakes with a cold front extending from OH into central TX by 12Z Thursday. Low-level moisture will increase across the lower to middle MS Valley as south winds increase ahead of the cold front, with a narrow plume of near-60 F dewpoints as far northeast as OH. The combination of sufficient moisture and lift may yield weak elevated instability near and north of the cold front, with sporadic non-severe thunderstorms anticipated. ...Lower MI eastward across Lake Erie... Strengthening west/southwesterly winds will help transport moisture northeastward ahead of the cold front on Wednesday, but low-level lapse rates/heating look to be poor, resulting in a capped air mass. With time, persistent 30-40 kt winds around 850 mb and the approaching upper low will lead to weak elevated instability sufficient for scattered convection. The most likely area will be from Lake MI and Lower MI during the day, with bands of showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms expanding eastward across Lake Erie late. Elsewhere, southern parts of the front from eastern OK into AR could result in showers mainly north of the boundary after 03Z, but will maintain less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities as flash density should remain quite low given weak lift with only an undercutting front. ..Jewell.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will continue to move south and east across the Southwest and southern Rockies today and overspread a dry surface airmass with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent. These stronger mid-level winds are expected to mix to the surface across the Southwest from northern Arizona into northern New Mexico and far southern Utah and Colorado. A tightening pressure gradient in response to a developing surface low in the Plains will result in additional acceleration of wind speeds across eastern New Mexico. In this region, fuels are mostly grasses which have recently cured due to cooler temperatures at the end of October. Therefore, since there has not been any precipitation in over a week, fuels should support the potential for large wildfire spread. Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. These dry conditions may support some increase in initial attack and continued drying of fuels which may help support the spread of ongoing fires in the region. However, winds are expected to remain very light, and therefore, no Elevated or Critical fire weather areas are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will continue to move south and east across the Southwest and southern Rockies today and overspread a dry surface airmass with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent. These stronger mid-level winds are expected to mix to the surface across the Southwest from northern Arizona into northern New Mexico and far southern Utah and Colorado. A tightening pressure gradient in response to a developing surface low in the Plains will result in additional acceleration of wind speeds across eastern New Mexico. In this region, fuels are mostly grasses which have recently cured due to cooler temperatures at the end of October. Therefore, since there has not been any precipitation in over a week, fuels should support the potential for large wildfire spread. Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. These dry conditions may support some increase in initial attack and continued drying of fuels which may help support the spread of ongoing fires in the region. However, winds are expected to remain very light, and therefore, no Elevated or Critical fire weather areas are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will continue to move south and east across the Southwest and southern Rockies today and overspread a dry surface airmass with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent. These stronger mid-level winds are expected to mix to the surface across the Southwest from northern Arizona into northern New Mexico and far southern Utah and Colorado. A tightening pressure gradient in response to a developing surface low in the Plains will result in additional acceleration of wind speeds across eastern New Mexico. In this region, fuels are mostly grasses which have recently cured due to cooler temperatures at the end of October. Therefore, since there has not been any precipitation in over a week, fuels should support the potential for large wildfire spread. Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. These dry conditions may support some increase in initial attack and continued drying of fuels which may help support the spread of ongoing fires in the region. However, winds are expected to remain very light, and therefore, no Elevated or Critical fire weather areas are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will continue to move south and east across the Southwest and southern Rockies today and overspread a dry surface airmass with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent. These stronger mid-level winds are expected to mix to the surface across the Southwest from northern Arizona into northern New Mexico and far southern Utah and Colorado. A tightening pressure gradient in response to a developing surface low in the Plains will result in additional acceleration of wind speeds across eastern New Mexico. In this region, fuels are mostly grasses which have recently cured due to cooler temperatures at the end of October. Therefore, since there has not been any precipitation in over a week, fuels should support the potential for large wildfire spread. Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. These dry conditions may support some increase in initial attack and continued drying of fuels which may help support the spread of ongoing fires in the region. However, winds are expected to remain very light, and therefore, no Elevated or Critical fire weather areas are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will continue to move south and east across the Southwest and southern Rockies today and overspread a dry surface airmass with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent. These stronger mid-level winds are expected to mix to the surface across the Southwest from northern Arizona into northern New Mexico and far southern Utah and Colorado. A tightening pressure gradient in response to a developing surface low in the Plains will result in additional acceleration of wind speeds across eastern New Mexico. In this region, fuels are mostly grasses which have recently cured due to cooler temperatures at the end of October. Therefore, since there has not been any precipitation in over a week, fuels should support the potential for large wildfire spread. Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. These dry conditions may support some increase in initial attack and continued drying of fuels which may help support the spread of ongoing fires in the region. However, winds are expected to remain very light, and therefore, no Elevated or Critical fire weather areas are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 11/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will continue to move south and east across the Southwest and southern Rockies today and overspread a dry surface airmass with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent. These stronger mid-level winds are expected to mix to the surface across the Southwest from northern Arizona into northern New Mexico and far southern Utah and Colorado. A tightening pressure gradient in response to a developing surface low in the Plains will result in additional acceleration of wind speeds across eastern New Mexico. In this region, fuels are mostly grasses which have recently cured due to cooler temperatures at the end of October. Therefore, since there has not been any precipitation in over a week, fuels should support the potential for large wildfire spread. Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. These dry conditions may support some increase in initial attack and continued drying of fuels which may help support the spread of ongoing fires in the region. However, winds are expected to remain very light, and therefore, no Elevated or Critical fire weather areas are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity. RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts. ...Elsewhere... The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for additional lightning appears minimal. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity. RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts. ...Elsewhere... The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for additional lightning appears minimal. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity. RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts. ...Elsewhere... The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for additional lightning appears minimal. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity. RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts. ...Elsewhere... The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for additional lightning appears minimal. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity. RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts. ...Elsewhere... The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for additional lightning appears minimal. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity. RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts. ...Elsewhere... The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for additional lightning appears minimal. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS through tonight. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a deep-layer cyclone near the ND/Canadian border by this evening, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Great Basin. A warm front is forecast to develop northward across the mid MS Valley and southwest Great Lakes this evening into the overnight. A strengthening low-level warm-air advection regime overnight may result in a few weak thunderstorms developing in the area centered over southern WI. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes are possible near the immediate OR/northern CA coast early this morning before this activity wanes as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. ..Smith.. 11/07/2023 Read more