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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move from the middle Rio Grande Valley on Monday to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and to the eastern Gulf Coast states by Wednesday. A moist airmass is forecast to advect northward into the central Gulf Coast ahead of the approaching trough. Increasing low-level flow across the western Gulf of Mexico Monday will make conditions favorable for MCS development. The MCS will likely move eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Surface dewpoints could reach the lower to mid 60s F across the central Gulf Coast just ahead of the trough during the day. The northern part of the MCS could first affect southeastern Louisiana on Tuesday, and then move across far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Tuesday night. Wednesday, thunderstorms may develop across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Although a severe weather threat can not be ruled out, the models have some variance concerning the quality of low-level moisture ahead of the system. If the more aggressive solutions pan out, then a marginal tornado threat would be possible on Tuesday across the central Gulf Coast. The current thinking is that the higher quality low-level moisture and more significant part of the MCS will remain offshore, keeping any severe threat over the water. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... An upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central U.S. on Thursday, and move into the eastern U.S. on Friday. The shortwave trough in the Southeast is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic. In the wake of this system, instability is forecast to be limited across the Gulf Coast states and along the Atlantic Seaboard, minimizing any potential for thunderstorm development. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move from the middle Rio Grande Valley on Monday to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and to the eastern Gulf Coast states by Wednesday. A moist airmass is forecast to advect northward into the central Gulf Coast ahead of the approaching trough. Increasing low-level flow across the western Gulf of Mexico Monday will make conditions favorable for MCS development. The MCS will likely move eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Surface dewpoints could reach the lower to mid 60s F across the central Gulf Coast just ahead of the trough during the day. The northern part of the MCS could first affect southeastern Louisiana on Tuesday, and then move across far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Tuesday night. Wednesday, thunderstorms may develop across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Although a severe weather threat can not be ruled out, the models have some variance concerning the quality of low-level moisture ahead of the system. If the more aggressive solutions pan out, then a marginal tornado threat would be possible on Tuesday across the central Gulf Coast. The current thinking is that the higher quality low-level moisture and more significant part of the MCS will remain offshore, keeping any severe threat over the water. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... An upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central U.S. on Thursday, and move into the eastern U.S. on Friday. The shortwave trough in the Southeast is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic. In the wake of this system, instability is forecast to be limited across the Gulf Coast states and along the Atlantic Seaboard, minimizing any potential for thunderstorm development. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move from the middle Rio Grande Valley on Monday to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and to the eastern Gulf Coast states by Wednesday. A moist airmass is forecast to advect northward into the central Gulf Coast ahead of the approaching trough. Increasing low-level flow across the western Gulf of Mexico Monday will make conditions favorable for MCS development. The MCS will likely move eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Surface dewpoints could reach the lower to mid 60s F across the central Gulf Coast just ahead of the trough during the day. The northern part of the MCS could first affect southeastern Louisiana on Tuesday, and then move across far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Tuesday night. Wednesday, thunderstorms may develop across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Although a severe weather threat can not be ruled out, the models have some variance concerning the quality of low-level moisture ahead of the system. If the more aggressive solutions pan out, then a marginal tornado threat would be possible on Tuesday across the central Gulf Coast. The current thinking is that the higher quality low-level moisture and more significant part of the MCS will remain offshore, keeping any severe threat over the water. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... An upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central U.S. on Thursday, and move into the eastern U.S. on Friday. The shortwave trough in the Southeast is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic. In the wake of this system, instability is forecast to be limited across the Gulf Coast states and along the Atlantic Seaboard, minimizing any potential for thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast on Sunday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move into the Rockies on Sunday as northwest flow remains over much for the central U.S. A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf of Mexico. At the western edge of the moist airmass, isolated weakly-forced thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Sunday and Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast on Sunday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move into the Rockies on Sunday as northwest flow remains over much for the central U.S. A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf of Mexico. At the western edge of the moist airmass, isolated weakly-forced thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Sunday and Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast on Sunday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move into the Rockies on Sunday as northwest flow remains over much for the central U.S. A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf of Mexico. At the western edge of the moist airmass, isolated weakly-forced thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Sunday and Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast on Sunday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move into the Rockies on Sunday as northwest flow remains over much for the central U.S. A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf of Mexico. At the western edge of the moist airmass, isolated weakly-forced thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Sunday and Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast on Sunday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move into the Rockies on Sunday as northwest flow remains over much for the central U.S. A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf of Mexico. At the western edge of the moist airmass, isolated weakly-forced thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Sunday and Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast on Sunday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move into the Rockies on Sunday as northwest flow remains over much for the central U.S. A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf of Mexico. At the western edge of the moist airmass, isolated weakly-forced thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Sunday and Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0841 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf coast, far west Texas/southwest New Mexico, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving front along the northwest/north central Gulf coast may focus isolated thunderstorm development through the period. Any convection will be generally along and to the cool side of the surface front, where weak buoyancy aloft may be sufficient for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms have been observed early this morning across southwest NM and far west TX. Weak elevated CAPE and ascent downstream from a southern stream shortwave trough could support a few additional thunderstorms the first half of the day, before the threat ends during the afternoon. Otherwise, isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible the last few hours of the forecast period across the Olympic Peninsula as a pronounced shortwave trough approaches coastal WA and Vancouver by 08-12z. Isolated lightning flashes earlier this morning near the WV/VA border have ended and no additional thunderstorm development is expected today. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0841 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf coast, far west Texas/southwest New Mexico, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving front along the northwest/north central Gulf coast may focus isolated thunderstorm development through the period. Any convection will be generally along and to the cool side of the surface front, where weak buoyancy aloft may be sufficient for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms have been observed early this morning across southwest NM and far west TX. Weak elevated CAPE and ascent downstream from a southern stream shortwave trough could support a few additional thunderstorms the first half of the day, before the threat ends during the afternoon. Otherwise, isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible the last few hours of the forecast period across the Olympic Peninsula as a pronounced shortwave trough approaches coastal WA and Vancouver by 08-12z. Isolated lightning flashes earlier this morning near the WV/VA border have ended and no additional thunderstorm development is expected today. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0841 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf coast, far west Texas/southwest New Mexico, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving front along the northwest/north central Gulf coast may focus isolated thunderstorm development through the period. Any convection will be generally along and to the cool side of the surface front, where weak buoyancy aloft may be sufficient for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms have been observed early this morning across southwest NM and far west TX. Weak elevated CAPE and ascent downstream from a southern stream shortwave trough could support a few additional thunderstorms the first half of the day, before the threat ends during the afternoon. Otherwise, isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible the last few hours of the forecast period across the Olympic Peninsula as a pronounced shortwave trough approaches coastal WA and Vancouver by 08-12z. Isolated lightning flashes earlier this morning near the WV/VA border have ended and no additional thunderstorm development is expected today. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0841 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf coast, far west Texas/southwest New Mexico, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving front along the northwest/north central Gulf coast may focus isolated thunderstorm development through the period. Any convection will be generally along and to the cool side of the surface front, where weak buoyancy aloft may be sufficient for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms have been observed early this morning across southwest NM and far west TX. Weak elevated CAPE and ascent downstream from a southern stream shortwave trough could support a few additional thunderstorms the first half of the day, before the threat ends during the afternoon. Otherwise, isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible the last few hours of the forecast period across the Olympic Peninsula as a pronounced shortwave trough approaches coastal WA and Vancouver by 08-12z. Isolated lightning flashes earlier this morning near the WV/VA border have ended and no additional thunderstorm development is expected today. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0841 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf coast, far west Texas/southwest New Mexico, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving front along the northwest/north central Gulf coast may focus isolated thunderstorm development through the period. Any convection will be generally along and to the cool side of the surface front, where weak buoyancy aloft may be sufficient for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms have been observed early this morning across southwest NM and far west TX. Weak elevated CAPE and ascent downstream from a southern stream shortwave trough could support a few additional thunderstorms the first half of the day, before the threat ends during the afternoon. Otherwise, isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible the last few hours of the forecast period across the Olympic Peninsula as a pronounced shortwave trough approaches coastal WA and Vancouver by 08-12z. Isolated lightning flashes earlier this morning near the WV/VA border have ended and no additional thunderstorm development is expected today. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0841 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf coast, far west Texas/southwest New Mexico, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving front along the northwest/north central Gulf coast may focus isolated thunderstorm development through the period. Any convection will be generally along and to the cool side of the surface front, where weak buoyancy aloft may be sufficient for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms have been observed early this morning across southwest NM and far west TX. Weak elevated CAPE and ascent downstream from a southern stream shortwave trough could support a few additional thunderstorms the first half of the day, before the threat ends during the afternoon. Otherwise, isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible the last few hours of the forecast period across the Olympic Peninsula as a pronounced shortwave trough approaches coastal WA and Vancouver by 08-12z. Isolated lightning flashes earlier this morning near the WV/VA border have ended and no additional thunderstorm development is expected today. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the U.S. on Saturday across far northwest Washington, the lower and middle Texas coast, and along the eastern coast of Florida. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level shortwave trough will move inland across the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. A few lightning strikes will be possible in northwest Washington near the trough, as it moves inland during the day. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast near the western edge of a moist airmass in the Gulf of Mexico. No severe threat is expected across the U.S. on Saturday or Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk of lightning will be noted with convection along portions of the western and central Gulf Coast, and over a small area of southern New Mexico and far west Texas. ...Discussion... The vast majority of the CONUS will remain lightning-free Friday as meager moisture/buoyancy will reside across most regions. A few exceptions are along the western/central Gulf Coast, and across portions of southern NM and far west TX. Broad southwesterly flow will continue at midlevels from the southern Rockies into the middle Atlantic. Downstream confluent flow will encourage surface pressure rises and high pressure across most areas east of the Rockies. As a result, pronounced surface front will advance off the south TX Coast very early in the period and northeasterly low-level flow should strengthen over the central Gulf Coast. While weak convection is expected to develop near this frontal zone, many updrafts will remain too shallow/weak to produce lightning. Even so, a few thunderstorms are expected, primarily off the south TX Coast early in the period. Upstream across southern NM/west TX, cooling midlevel temperatures in association with an ejecting short-wave trough will steepen lapse rates through mid day, then instability should wane as the trough shifts east. A few flashes of lighting may be noted with weak elevated convection early in the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk of lightning will be noted with convection along portions of the western and central Gulf Coast, and over a small area of southern New Mexico and far west Texas. ...Discussion... The vast majority of the CONUS will remain lightning-free Friday as meager moisture/buoyancy will reside across most regions. A few exceptions are along the western/central Gulf Coast, and across portions of southern NM and far west TX. Broad southwesterly flow will continue at midlevels from the southern Rockies into the middle Atlantic. Downstream confluent flow will encourage surface pressure rises and high pressure across most areas east of the Rockies. As a result, pronounced surface front will advance off the south TX Coast very early in the period and northeasterly low-level flow should strengthen over the central Gulf Coast. While weak convection is expected to develop near this frontal zone, many updrafts will remain too shallow/weak to produce lightning. Even so, a few thunderstorms are expected, primarily off the south TX Coast early in the period. Upstream across southern NM/west TX, cooling midlevel temperatures in association with an ejecting short-wave trough will steepen lapse rates through mid day, then instability should wane as the trough shifts east. A few flashes of lighting may be noted with weak elevated convection early in the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk of lightning will be noted with convection along portions of the western and central Gulf Coast, and over a small area of southern New Mexico and far west Texas. ...Discussion... The vast majority of the CONUS will remain lightning-free Friday as meager moisture/buoyancy will reside across most regions. A few exceptions are along the western/central Gulf Coast, and across portions of southern NM and far west TX. Broad southwesterly flow will continue at midlevels from the southern Rockies into the middle Atlantic. Downstream confluent flow will encourage surface pressure rises and high pressure across most areas east of the Rockies. As a result, pronounced surface front will advance off the south TX Coast very early in the period and northeasterly low-level flow should strengthen over the central Gulf Coast. While weak convection is expected to develop near this frontal zone, many updrafts will remain too shallow/weak to produce lightning. Even so, a few thunderstorms are expected, primarily off the south TX Coast early in the period. Upstream across southern NM/west TX, cooling midlevel temperatures in association with an ejecting short-wave trough will steepen lapse rates through mid day, then instability should wane as the trough shifts east. A few flashes of lighting may be noted with weak elevated convection early in the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible tonight across south Texas, and over portions of southwest and south-central New Mexico. ...01z Update... Surface front is forecast to advance into deep South TX by 06z, then into the lower Rio Grande Valley by the end of the period. Broad southwesterly flow atop this frontal surge will continue to encourage weak elevated convection along the cool side of the boundary, but lightning should be fairly sparse. However, greater buoyancy currently exists across the TX Coastal Plain, especially southern areas. 00z sounding from CRP exhibits modest buoyancy, but weak lapse rates due to a moist profile (PW around 2 inches). Latest lightning data suggests isolated thunderstorms are concentrated in this higher-instability air mass, just southwest of CRP. Current thinking is most lightning flashes will be noted across deep South TX the rest of the period. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms have weakened over southwest NM into northern Mexico. Even so, a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out across this region tonight with weak convection that evolves ahead of the approaching short-wave trough. ..Darrow.. 11/10/2023 Read more