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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening on Sunday. A brief tornado or two is also possible along a portion of the coastal central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...FL Peninsula... Guidance trends have shifted towards a bimodal setup for severe potential on Sunday. An MCS is expected to be ongoing over parts of the eastern Gulf, within a corridor of strongly forced large-scale ascent ahead of an intense mid-level jet impinging from the central Gulf. Given the presence of 50s surface dew points currently across the FL Peninsula, substantial moistening will be required and should generally be coincident with the remnants of the MCS overspreading the peninsula through midday. The southern portion of the MCS across the Keys and south FL will have access to greater moistening. This should be coupled with an enlarged low-level hodograph translating east in the warm conveyor, supporting potential for a couple tornadoes. Timing of the MCS with relation to the diurnal cycle, and how much richer moisture can surge ahead of it, will both be critical for the tornado threat. Farther north over central to north FL, in the wake of the decaying morning MCS remnants, intrusion of the mid-level dry slot, accompanied by steep lapse rates shifting east from northeast Gulf, should result in a favorable coupling with peak heating boundary-layer destabilization. With the well-advertised secondary cyclogenesis occurring across the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle, the effective warm front across north-central FL should focus afternoon severe thunderstorm potential. The deep-layer shear and lapse rates would conditionally favor potential for a few supercells capable of isolated large hail. The tornado threat should be favored close to the warm front, prior to warm sector low-level flow becoming veered. Storm motions should yield convection tending to spread away from the surface-based instability plume over central FL. A mesoscale corridor of greater hail/tornado probabilities may become highlighted in later outlooks. ..Coastal central CA... Within the left-exit region of an intense upper jet over the eastern Pacific, an approaching shortwave trough will aid in cyclogenesis late Saturday into Sunday off the central CA coast. In the wake of the heavy-rain swath, within a pronounced low-level warm conveyor, meager surface-based destabilization should occur along the immediate central CA coast. With greater consistency across guidance, a brief tornado and/or a severe gust attendant to low-topped, lightning-producing convection may develop in the afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening on Sunday. A brief tornado or two is also possible along a portion of the coastal central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...FL Peninsula... Guidance trends have shifted towards a bimodal setup for severe potential on Sunday. An MCS is expected to be ongoing over parts of the eastern Gulf, within a corridor of strongly forced large-scale ascent ahead of an intense mid-level jet impinging from the central Gulf. Given the presence of 50s surface dew points currently across the FL Peninsula, substantial moistening will be required and should generally be coincident with the remnants of the MCS overspreading the peninsula through midday. The southern portion of the MCS across the Keys and south FL will have access to greater moistening. This should be coupled with an enlarged low-level hodograph translating east in the warm conveyor, supporting potential for a couple tornadoes. Timing of the MCS with relation to the diurnal cycle, and how much richer moisture can surge ahead of it, will both be critical for the tornado threat. Farther north over central to north FL, in the wake of the decaying morning MCS remnants, intrusion of the mid-level dry slot, accompanied by steep lapse rates shifting east from northeast Gulf, should result in a favorable coupling with peak heating boundary-layer destabilization. With the well-advertised secondary cyclogenesis occurring across the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle, the effective warm front across north-central FL should focus afternoon severe thunderstorm potential. The deep-layer shear and lapse rates would conditionally favor potential for a few supercells capable of isolated large hail. The tornado threat should be favored close to the warm front, prior to warm sector low-level flow becoming veered. Storm motions should yield convection tending to spread away from the surface-based instability plume over central FL. A mesoscale corridor of greater hail/tornado probabilities may become highlighted in later outlooks. ..Coastal central CA... Within the left-exit region of an intense upper jet over the eastern Pacific, an approaching shortwave trough will aid in cyclogenesis late Saturday into Sunday off the central CA coast. In the wake of the heavy-rain swath, within a pronounced low-level warm conveyor, meager surface-based destabilization should occur along the immediate central CA coast. With greater consistency across guidance, a brief tornado and/or a severe gust attendant to low-topped, lightning-producing convection may develop in the afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening on Sunday. A brief tornado or two is also possible along a portion of the coastal central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...FL Peninsula... Guidance trends have shifted towards a bimodal setup for severe potential on Sunday. An MCS is expected to be ongoing over parts of the eastern Gulf, within a corridor of strongly forced large-scale ascent ahead of an intense mid-level jet impinging from the central Gulf. Given the presence of 50s surface dew points currently across the FL Peninsula, substantial moistening will be required and should generally be coincident with the remnants of the MCS overspreading the peninsula through midday. The southern portion of the MCS across the Keys and south FL will have access to greater moistening. This should be coupled with an enlarged low-level hodograph translating east in the warm conveyor, supporting potential for a couple tornadoes. Timing of the MCS with relation to the diurnal cycle, and how much richer moisture can surge ahead of it, will both be critical for the tornado threat. Farther north over central to north FL, in the wake of the decaying morning MCS remnants, intrusion of the mid-level dry slot, accompanied by steep lapse rates shifting east from northeast Gulf, should result in a favorable coupling with peak heating boundary-layer destabilization. With the well-advertised secondary cyclogenesis occurring across the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle, the effective warm front across north-central FL should focus afternoon severe thunderstorm potential. The deep-layer shear and lapse rates would conditionally favor potential for a few supercells capable of isolated large hail. The tornado threat should be favored close to the warm front, prior to warm sector low-level flow becoming veered. Storm motions should yield convection tending to spread away from the surface-based instability plume over central FL. A mesoscale corridor of greater hail/tornado probabilities may become highlighted in later outlooks. ..Coastal central CA... Within the left-exit region of an intense upper jet over the eastern Pacific, an approaching shortwave trough will aid in cyclogenesis late Saturday into Sunday off the central CA coast. In the wake of the heavy-rain swath, within a pronounced low-level warm conveyor, meager surface-based destabilization should occur along the immediate central CA coast. With greater consistency across guidance, a brief tornado and/or a severe gust attendant to low-topped, lightning-producing convection may develop in the afternoon to early evening. ..Grams.. 02/03/2024 Read more

Cheney Lake, Wichita’s water source, was 5 ½ feet below normal for this time of year. The low water level has discouraged recreationists who typically book all of the campsites for the holidays as soon as it is possible to reserve them. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), Feb 1, 2024

Hay prices have risen sharply after drought, heavy snow and bitterly cold temperatures in January. At auction in Dyersville, hay has sold for $250 to $300 per ton, topping 2013 records. RFD TV (Nashville, Tenn.), Feb 2, 2024

Drought in northeast Missouri in 2023 has kept the feed inventory low. An intense January snowstorm and bitterly cold temperatures have strained the feed inventory as livestock need additional feed to keep warm. KTVO-TV ABC 3 Kirksville (Mo.), Feb 1, 2024

MD 0103 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0103 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Areas affected...southeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 030547Z - 030715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A line of storms may produce strong to locally severe gusts over southeast Texas over the next couple hours. DISCUSSION...A line of storms is quickly surging east across southeast TX, with widespread rain ahead of the system. Surface temperatures are relatively cool with a saturated boundary layer, but lower 60 F dewpoints are contributing to weak buoyancy. Given the longevity of the outflow surge, this may be sufficient to support a continuation toward the upper TX Coast later tonight. Overall storm trends appear down over the last half hour, and as such, a watch is not anticipated. However, a few strong winds gusts, perhaps locally damaging, may occur with the passage of this system. ..Jewell.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP... LAT...LON 28889717 29149664 29489648 29869662 30179640 30149613 30029537 29769506 29479468 29299462 28859517 28629575 28659632 28759702 28889717 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EARLY TODAY NEAR MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development posing some risk for severe hail and wind might still impact portions of mid and upper Texas coastal areas into mid morning, before generally becoming confined to the northwestern through central Gulf of Mexico later today through tonight. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an anomalous, blocking mid/upper high, centered over the Upper Midwest, will generally be maintained through this period. Downstream of this feature, one cyclone appears likely to move little, offshore of the northern Atlantic coast. Upstream, a deepening surface cyclone may approach the central California coast today through tonight, coincident with at least some further amplification of mid/upper flow across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific into southwestern North America. This likely will include building ridging inland of the California coast, and across the Baja California vicinity, into the U.S. Great Basin and northwestern Mexican Plateau. In response to these developments, a mid-level low, still in the process of evolving to the east of the southern Rockies, is forecast to elongate southeastward across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity today through early Sunday. As this occurs, it appears that the ongoing southerly return flow, off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf of Mexico, into southern Great Plains, will become cut off, probably by mid to late morning. ...Northwestern Gulf Coast... Forcing for ascent, in the exit region of a strong digging mid/upper jet, may maintain vigorous thunderstorm development near mid/upper Texas coastal areas into the 12-15Z time frame this morning. However, based on latest model output, it is appearing increasingly probable that this will be rooted above at least a shallow stable surface-based layer, in an environment otherwise only perhaps marginally supportive of severe hail and/or wind gusts. By late morning, if not earlier, through the remainder of the period, the high resolution ensemble output (among other guidance) suggests that potential for strong thunderstorm development will generally become confined to the northwestern into central Gulf of Mexico. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EARLY TODAY NEAR MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development posing some risk for severe hail and wind might still impact portions of mid and upper Texas coastal areas into mid morning, before generally becoming confined to the northwestern through central Gulf of Mexico later today through tonight. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an anomalous, blocking mid/upper high, centered over the Upper Midwest, will generally be maintained through this period. Downstream of this feature, one cyclone appears likely to move little, offshore of the northern Atlantic coast. Upstream, a deepening surface cyclone may approach the central California coast today through tonight, coincident with at least some further amplification of mid/upper flow across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific into southwestern North America. This likely will include building ridging inland of the California coast, and across the Baja California vicinity, into the U.S. Great Basin and northwestern Mexican Plateau. In response to these developments, a mid-level low, still in the process of evolving to the east of the southern Rockies, is forecast to elongate southeastward across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity today through early Sunday. As this occurs, it appears that the ongoing southerly return flow, off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf of Mexico, into southern Great Plains, will become cut off, probably by mid to late morning. ...Northwestern Gulf Coast... Forcing for ascent, in the exit region of a strong digging mid/upper jet, may maintain vigorous thunderstorm development near mid/upper Texas coastal areas into the 12-15Z time frame this morning. However, based on latest model output, it is appearing increasingly probable that this will be rooted above at least a shallow stable surface-based layer, in an environment otherwise only perhaps marginally supportive of severe hail and/or wind gusts. By late morning, if not earlier, through the remainder of the period, the high resolution ensemble output (among other guidance) suggests that potential for strong thunderstorm development will generally become confined to the northwestern into central Gulf of Mexico. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EARLY TODAY NEAR MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development posing some risk for severe hail and wind might still impact portions of mid and upper Texas coastal areas into mid morning, before generally becoming confined to the northwestern through central Gulf of Mexico later today through tonight. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an anomalous, blocking mid/upper high, centered over the Upper Midwest, will generally be maintained through this period. Downstream of this feature, one cyclone appears likely to move little, offshore of the northern Atlantic coast. Upstream, a deepening surface cyclone may approach the central California coast today through tonight, coincident with at least some further amplification of mid/upper flow across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific into southwestern North America. This likely will include building ridging inland of the California coast, and across the Baja California vicinity, into the U.S. Great Basin and northwestern Mexican Plateau. In response to these developments, a mid-level low, still in the process of evolving to the east of the southern Rockies, is forecast to elongate southeastward across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity today through early Sunday. As this occurs, it appears that the ongoing southerly return flow, off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf of Mexico, into southern Great Plains, will become cut off, probably by mid to late morning. ...Northwestern Gulf Coast... Forcing for ascent, in the exit region of a strong digging mid/upper jet, may maintain vigorous thunderstorm development near mid/upper Texas coastal areas into the 12-15Z time frame this morning. However, based on latest model output, it is appearing increasingly probable that this will be rooted above at least a shallow stable surface-based layer, in an environment otherwise only perhaps marginally supportive of severe hail and/or wind gusts. By late morning, if not earlier, through the remainder of the period, the high resolution ensemble output (among other guidance) suggests that potential for strong thunderstorm development will generally become confined to the northwestern into central Gulf of Mexico. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EARLY TODAY NEAR MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development posing some risk for severe hail and wind might still impact portions of mid and upper Texas coastal areas into mid morning, before generally becoming confined to the northwestern through central Gulf of Mexico later today through tonight. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an anomalous, blocking mid/upper high, centered over the Upper Midwest, will generally be maintained through this period. Downstream of this feature, one cyclone appears likely to move little, offshore of the northern Atlantic coast. Upstream, a deepening surface cyclone may approach the central California coast today through tonight, coincident with at least some further amplification of mid/upper flow across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific into southwestern North America. This likely will include building ridging inland of the California coast, and across the Baja California vicinity, into the U.S. Great Basin and northwestern Mexican Plateau. In response to these developments, a mid-level low, still in the process of evolving to the east of the southern Rockies, is forecast to elongate southeastward across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity today through early Sunday. As this occurs, it appears that the ongoing southerly return flow, off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf of Mexico, into southern Great Plains, will become cut off, probably by mid to late morning. ...Northwestern Gulf Coast... Forcing for ascent, in the exit region of a strong digging mid/upper jet, may maintain vigorous thunderstorm development near mid/upper Texas coastal areas into the 12-15Z time frame this morning. However, based on latest model output, it is appearing increasingly probable that this will be rooted above at least a shallow stable surface-based layer, in an environment otherwise only perhaps marginally supportive of severe hail and/or wind gusts. By late morning, if not earlier, through the remainder of the period, the high resolution ensemble output (among other guidance) suggests that potential for strong thunderstorm development will generally become confined to the northwestern into central Gulf of Mexico. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EARLY TODAY NEAR MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development posing some risk for severe hail and wind might still impact portions of mid and upper Texas coastal areas into mid morning, before generally becoming confined to the northwestern through central Gulf of Mexico later today through tonight. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an anomalous, blocking mid/upper high, centered over the Upper Midwest, will generally be maintained through this period. Downstream of this feature, one cyclone appears likely to move little, offshore of the northern Atlantic coast. Upstream, a deepening surface cyclone may approach the central California coast today through tonight, coincident with at least some further amplification of mid/upper flow across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific into southwestern North America. This likely will include building ridging inland of the California coast, and across the Baja California vicinity, into the U.S. Great Basin and northwestern Mexican Plateau. In response to these developments, a mid-level low, still in the process of evolving to the east of the southern Rockies, is forecast to elongate southeastward across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity today through early Sunday. As this occurs, it appears that the ongoing southerly return flow, off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf of Mexico, into southern Great Plains, will become cut off, probably by mid to late morning. ...Northwestern Gulf Coast... Forcing for ascent, in the exit region of a strong digging mid/upper jet, may maintain vigorous thunderstorm development near mid/upper Texas coastal areas into the 12-15Z time frame this morning. However, based on latest model output, it is appearing increasingly probable that this will be rooted above at least a shallow stable surface-based layer, in an environment otherwise only perhaps marginally supportive of severe hail and/or wind gusts. By late morning, if not earlier, through the remainder of the period, the high resolution ensemble output (among other guidance) suggests that potential for strong thunderstorm development will generally become confined to the northwestern into central Gulf of Mexico. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EARLY TODAY NEAR MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development posing some risk for severe hail and wind might still impact portions of mid and upper Texas coastal areas into mid morning, before generally becoming confined to the northwestern through central Gulf of Mexico later today through tonight. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an anomalous, blocking mid/upper high, centered over the Upper Midwest, will generally be maintained through this period. Downstream of this feature, one cyclone appears likely to move little, offshore of the northern Atlantic coast. Upstream, a deepening surface cyclone may approach the central California coast today through tonight, coincident with at least some further amplification of mid/upper flow across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific into southwestern North America. This likely will include building ridging inland of the California coast, and across the Baja California vicinity, into the U.S. Great Basin and northwestern Mexican Plateau. In response to these developments, a mid-level low, still in the process of evolving to the east of the southern Rockies, is forecast to elongate southeastward across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity today through early Sunday. As this occurs, it appears that the ongoing southerly return flow, off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf of Mexico, into southern Great Plains, will become cut off, probably by mid to late morning. ...Northwestern Gulf Coast... Forcing for ascent, in the exit region of a strong digging mid/upper jet, may maintain vigorous thunderstorm development near mid/upper Texas coastal areas into the 12-15Z time frame this morning. However, based on latest model output, it is appearing increasingly probable that this will be rooted above at least a shallow stable surface-based layer, in an environment otherwise only perhaps marginally supportive of severe hail and/or wind gusts. By late morning, if not earlier, through the remainder of the period, the high resolution ensemble output (among other guidance) suggests that potential for strong thunderstorm development will generally become confined to the northwestern into central Gulf of Mexico. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 Read more

WW 0013 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW LRD TO 10 NW COT TO 20 NE COT TO 50 NW NIR TO 40 S BAZ TO 30 E BAZ TO 15 SE AUS TO 15 NE AUS TO 35 W CLL. WW 13 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 030600Z. ..JEWELL..02/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC021-123-177-255-030600- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BASTROP DEWITT GONZALES KARNES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0013 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW LRD TO 10 NW COT TO 20 NE COT TO 50 NW NIR TO 40 S BAZ TO 30 E BAZ TO 15 SE AUS TO 15 NE AUS TO 35 W CLL. WW 13 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 030600Z. ..JEWELL..02/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC021-123-177-255-030600- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BASTROP DEWITT GONZALES KARNES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 13 SEVERE TSTM TX 022330Z - 030600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 13 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-central and western North Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon from 530 PM until Midnight CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will initially be focused across western north Texas, with a further increase in storm coverage and intensity across the Big Country and Edwards Plateau vicinities this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles south southwest of Hondo TX to 100 miles north of Abilene TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0101 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 13... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0101 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Areas affected...central and southern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13... Valid 030212Z - 030415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered storms may continue to pose a damaging wind and marginal hail threat as they move across remaining parts of WW 13. The threat area may include a few adjacent counties east of the existing watch. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms ahead of the primary cold front have consolidated into two main clusters, both showing signs of either damaging wind gusts or hail near 1.00". Surface analysis shows a diffuse theta-e gradient north of CRP and extending northwestward toward the Frio/La Salle County cluster, while farther north across the San Antonio area, surface conditions are cooler but still unstable. Given the ongoing substantial storm clusters, damaging gusts will be possible as the air mass remains sufficiently unstable to sustain the ongoing convection, especially near the theta-e gradient. Expected coverage of severe outside the watch is not forecast to necessitate a new watch, though a few severe reports will be possible. ..Jewell.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 27799985 28319954 28729955 29559916 29919907 30119918 30319890 30379835 30479764 30189711 28849702 28099722 27859757 27599950 27679969 27799985 Read more

WW 0013 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW DRT TO 50 NE DRT TO 40 NE JCT TO 15 ENE BWD TO 25 WSW MWL TO 10 SSE SPS TO 25 WSW FSI. ..JEWELL..02/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-077-091-093-099-123-127-137-143- 163-171-177-187-193-209-237-255-259-265-267-271-281-299-319-323- 325-333-363-385-411-453-463-491-493-507-030440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP BEXAR BLANCO BURNET CALDWELL CLAY COMAL COMANCHE CORYELL DEWITT DIMMIT EDWARDS ERATH FRIO GILLESPIE GONZALES GUADALUPE HAMILTON HAYS JACK KARNES KENDALL KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LAMPASAS LLANO MASON MAVERICK MEDINA MILLS PALO PINTO REAL SAN SABA TRAVIS UVALDE WILLIAMSON WILSON ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 0102 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 13... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0102 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0820 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern into central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13... Valid 030220Z - 030345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across northern parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13, over central into northern TX. Damaging gusts appear to be the main threat with a squall-line moving across the region. DISCUSSION...A squall line has become established from Wichita to Kimple Counties in TX and is progressing eastward amid a marginally sheared and buoyant airmass (i.e. 30+ kts of effective bulk shear and 500+ J/kg MLCAPE). Surface temperatures have cooled into the lower 60s F. However, the 00Z FWS observed sounding suggests convective inhibition is negligible (despite a thin CAPE profile), with a hodograph characterized by enlarged low-level curvature and some elongation. As such, isolated damaging gusts may still accompany the squall line for at least a few more hours. A brief QLCS tornado also cannot be ruled out with any embedded mesovortices that can become established within the squall line. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30799921 31049919 31669894 32759860 33619835 33889790 33219746 32139771 31199815 30949841 30729909 30799921 Read more

MD 0100 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 13... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0100 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern into central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13... Valid 030033Z - 030200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across northern portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13 over northern to central Texas. Damaging gusts and large hail remain the primary concerns, though a tornado cannot be ruled out, especially with stronger QLCS circulations. DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms are merging into a singular squall line across portions of northern into central TX as large-scale ascent continues to overspread the southern Plains. MRMS mosaic radar imagery had displayed possible severe hail with the earlier discrete storm modes, with a tornado also reported in southwestern Haskell County, TX in the past hour. While a couple instances of severe hail could still occur with the stronger storm cores, damaging gusts may become a relatively greater threat this evening given the transition to more linear storm modes. KDYX radar data has also shown brief instances of strong low-level rotation embedded within the maturing QLCS. Deep-layer is modest (i.e. 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear per 00Z mesoanalysis). However the mesoanalysis also shows 200 m2/s2 of effective SRH, and the FWS VAD shows over 300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH with enlarged hodograph curvature. Since the deep-layer shear vectors are also oriented roughly normal to the convective line, a QLCS tornado cannot be ruled out this evening. ..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 31809993 31910013 32370012 32979991 33679951 33939870 33799836 33339822 32629819 31949842 31719919 31809993 Read more