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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to generally remain limited for today across the country with the exception of localized concerns across parts of the central High Plains and southern CA coast. Early-morning surface observations depict weak lee troughing ongoing across the High Plains. This trend should continue through today ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Westerly downslope flow off the central Rockies will support further drying of an antecedent dry air mass in place over southeast WY to northeast CO. While gradient winds will generally be light, localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible over the WY/CO/NE region where winds could gust as high as 15-20 mph with afternoon RH values in the teens. Along the southern CA coast, an offshore flow regime will gradually abate through the weekend, but will maintain breezy conditions for today. Modest mid/upper-level winds will likely limit the strongest gusts (upwards of 20-40 mph) to the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show poor overnight RH recovery, which will be exacerbated through the day by downslope warming/drying. While RH values in the low teens appear probable, the localized nature of the strongest winds should limit the coverage of robust fire weather conditions, and negate the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to generally remain limited for today across the country with the exception of localized concerns across parts of the central High Plains and southern CA coast. Early-morning surface observations depict weak lee troughing ongoing across the High Plains. This trend should continue through today ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Westerly downslope flow off the central Rockies will support further drying of an antecedent dry air mass in place over southeast WY to northeast CO. While gradient winds will generally be light, localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible over the WY/CO/NE region where winds could gust as high as 15-20 mph with afternoon RH values in the teens. Along the southern CA coast, an offshore flow regime will gradually abate through the weekend, but will maintain breezy conditions for today. Modest mid/upper-level winds will likely limit the strongest gusts (upwards of 20-40 mph) to the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show poor overnight RH recovery, which will be exacerbated through the day by downslope warming/drying. While RH values in the low teens appear probable, the localized nature of the strongest winds should limit the coverage of robust fire weather conditions, and negate the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to generally remain limited for today across the country with the exception of localized concerns across parts of the central High Plains and southern CA coast. Early-morning surface observations depict weak lee troughing ongoing across the High Plains. This trend should continue through today ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Westerly downslope flow off the central Rockies will support further drying of an antecedent dry air mass in place over southeast WY to northeast CO. While gradient winds will generally be light, localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible over the WY/CO/NE region where winds could gust as high as 15-20 mph with afternoon RH values in the teens. Along the southern CA coast, an offshore flow regime will gradually abate through the weekend, but will maintain breezy conditions for today. Modest mid/upper-level winds will likely limit the strongest gusts (upwards of 20-40 mph) to the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show poor overnight RH recovery, which will be exacerbated through the day by downslope warming/drying. While RH values in the low teens appear probable, the localized nature of the strongest winds should limit the coverage of robust fire weather conditions, and negate the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to generally remain limited for today across the country with the exception of localized concerns across parts of the central High Plains and southern CA coast. Early-morning surface observations depict weak lee troughing ongoing across the High Plains. This trend should continue through today ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Westerly downslope flow off the central Rockies will support further drying of an antecedent dry air mass in place over southeast WY to northeast CO. While gradient winds will generally be light, localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible over the WY/CO/NE region where winds could gust as high as 15-20 mph with afternoon RH values in the teens. Along the southern CA coast, an offshore flow regime will gradually abate through the weekend, but will maintain breezy conditions for today. Modest mid/upper-level winds will likely limit the strongest gusts (upwards of 20-40 mph) to the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show poor overnight RH recovery, which will be exacerbated through the day by downslope warming/drying. While RH values in the low teens appear probable, the localized nature of the strongest winds should limit the coverage of robust fire weather conditions, and negate the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to generally remain limited for today across the country with the exception of localized concerns across parts of the central High Plains and southern CA coast. Early-morning surface observations depict weak lee troughing ongoing across the High Plains. This trend should continue through today ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Westerly downslope flow off the central Rockies will support further drying of an antecedent dry air mass in place over southeast WY to northeast CO. While gradient winds will generally be light, localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible over the WY/CO/NE region where winds could gust as high as 15-20 mph with afternoon RH values in the teens. Along the southern CA coast, an offshore flow regime will gradually abate through the weekend, but will maintain breezy conditions for today. Modest mid/upper-level winds will likely limit the strongest gusts (upwards of 20-40 mph) to the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show poor overnight RH recovery, which will be exacerbated through the day by downslope warming/drying. While RH values in the low teens appear probable, the localized nature of the strongest winds should limit the coverage of robust fire weather conditions, and negate the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across northwest Washington and central Florida today. ...WA... Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the CONUS today. However, a few lightning flashes will be possible over northwest WA as a strong westerly upper jet and cold temperatures aloft spread across the region. Lightning has been observed over Vancouver Island this morning, and further activity is possible as the strongest forcing moves eastward this afternoon. ...FL... Other lightning flashes may also occur over portions of central FL this afternoon and early evening. A warm and humid low-level air mass is present, coupled with marginal CAPE values. Despite weak large scale forcing for ascent, diurnal heating and weak sea-breeze convergence will result in scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two later today. ..Hart/Jirak.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across northwest Washington and central Florida today. ...WA... Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the CONUS today. However, a few lightning flashes will be possible over northwest WA as a strong westerly upper jet and cold temperatures aloft spread across the region. Lightning has been observed over Vancouver Island this morning, and further activity is possible as the strongest forcing moves eastward this afternoon. ...FL... Other lightning flashes may also occur over portions of central FL this afternoon and early evening. A warm and humid low-level air mass is present, coupled with marginal CAPE values. Despite weak large scale forcing for ascent, diurnal heating and weak sea-breeze convergence will result in scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two later today. ..Hart/Jirak.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across northwest Washington and central Florida today. ...WA... Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the CONUS today. However, a few lightning flashes will be possible over northwest WA as a strong westerly upper jet and cold temperatures aloft spread across the region. Lightning has been observed over Vancouver Island this morning, and further activity is possible as the strongest forcing moves eastward this afternoon. ...FL... Other lightning flashes may also occur over portions of central FL this afternoon and early evening. A warm and humid low-level air mass is present, coupled with marginal CAPE values. Despite weak large scale forcing for ascent, diurnal heating and weak sea-breeze convergence will result in scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two later today. ..Hart/Jirak.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across northwest Washington and central Florida today. ...WA... Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the CONUS today. However, a few lightning flashes will be possible over northwest WA as a strong westerly upper jet and cold temperatures aloft spread across the region. Lightning has been observed over Vancouver Island this morning, and further activity is possible as the strongest forcing moves eastward this afternoon. ...FL... Other lightning flashes may also occur over portions of central FL this afternoon and early evening. A warm and humid low-level air mass is present, coupled with marginal CAPE values. Despite weak large scale forcing for ascent, diurnal heating and weak sea-breeze convergence will result in scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two later today. ..Hart/Jirak.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across northwest Washington and central Florida today. ...WA... Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the CONUS today. However, a few lightning flashes will be possible over northwest WA as a strong westerly upper jet and cold temperatures aloft spread across the region. Lightning has been observed over Vancouver Island this morning, and further activity is possible as the strongest forcing moves eastward this afternoon. ...FL... Other lightning flashes may also occur over portions of central FL this afternoon and early evening. A warm and humid low-level air mass is present, coupled with marginal CAPE values. Despite weak large scale forcing for ascent, diurnal heating and weak sea-breeze convergence will result in scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two later today. ..Hart/Jirak.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across northwest Washington and central Florida today. ...WA... Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the CONUS today. However, a few lightning flashes will be possible over northwest WA as a strong westerly upper jet and cold temperatures aloft spread across the region. Lightning has been observed over Vancouver Island this morning, and further activity is possible as the strongest forcing moves eastward this afternoon. ...FL... Other lightning flashes may also occur over portions of central FL this afternoon and early evening. A warm and humid low-level air mass is present, coupled with marginal CAPE values. Despite weak large scale forcing for ascent, diurnal heating and weak sea-breeze convergence will result in scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two later today. ..Hart/Jirak.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across northwest Washington today. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will progress inland over WA/southern BC today, with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates and weak buoyancy supporting low-end lightning potential across northwest WA. Farther east, a slow-moving surface front will remain just off the northwest/north central Gulf coast and the Carolinas, with any associated potential for isolated thunderstorms likewise remaining offshore. Surface heating, sea breeze circulations and the slow-moving front could focus some shallow convection across parts of central/north FL this afternoon. However, poor midlevel lapse rates and shallow ascent may not result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across northwest Washington today. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will progress inland over WA/southern BC today, with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates and weak buoyancy supporting low-end lightning potential across northwest WA. Farther east, a slow-moving surface front will remain just off the northwest/north central Gulf coast and the Carolinas, with any associated potential for isolated thunderstorms likewise remaining offshore. Surface heating, sea breeze circulations and the slow-moving front could focus some shallow convection across parts of central/north FL this afternoon. However, poor midlevel lapse rates and shallow ascent may not result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across northwest Washington today. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will progress inland over WA/southern BC today, with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates and weak buoyancy supporting low-end lightning potential across northwest WA. Farther east, a slow-moving surface front will remain just off the northwest/north central Gulf coast and the Carolinas, with any associated potential for isolated thunderstorms likewise remaining offshore. Surface heating, sea breeze circulations and the slow-moving front could focus some shallow convection across parts of central/north FL this afternoon. However, poor midlevel lapse rates and shallow ascent may not result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across northwest Washington today. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will progress inland over WA/southern BC today, with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates and weak buoyancy supporting low-end lightning potential across northwest WA. Farther east, a slow-moving surface front will remain just off the northwest/north central Gulf coast and the Carolinas, with any associated potential for isolated thunderstorms likewise remaining offshore. Surface heating, sea breeze circulations and the slow-moving front could focus some shallow convection across parts of central/north FL this afternoon. However, poor midlevel lapse rates and shallow ascent may not result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across northwest Washington today. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will progress inland over WA/southern BC today, with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates and weak buoyancy supporting low-end lightning potential across northwest WA. Farther east, a slow-moving surface front will remain just off the northwest/north central Gulf coast and the Carolinas, with any associated potential for isolated thunderstorms likewise remaining offshore. Surface heating, sea breeze circulations and the slow-moving front could focus some shallow convection across parts of central/north FL this afternoon. However, poor midlevel lapse rates and shallow ascent may not result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across northwest Washington today. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will progress inland over WA/southern BC today, with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates and weak buoyancy supporting low-end lightning potential across northwest WA. Farther east, a slow-moving surface front will remain just off the northwest/north central Gulf coast and the Carolinas, with any associated potential for isolated thunderstorms likewise remaining offshore. Surface heating, sea breeze circulations and the slow-moving front could focus some shallow convection across parts of central/north FL this afternoon. However, poor midlevel lapse rates and shallow ascent may not result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/11/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. A complex of thunderstorms, associated with the trough, will likely move across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Most of the thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. However, a marginal severe threat will be possible near the coast in parts of far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across Florida on Wednesday as the upper-level trough approaches. A marginal severe threat will again be possible ahead of the trough, with the greatest potential over southern Florida, where surface dewpoints will likely be near 70 F. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central states, as a shortwave ridge moves through the south-central U.S. On Friday and Saturday, the upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move across the eastern U.S., as another upper-level system develops in the West. During this time period, instability is forecast to be limited across the continental United States, which should minimize any severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. A complex of thunderstorms, associated with the trough, will likely move across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Most of the thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. However, a marginal severe threat will be possible near the coast in parts of far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across Florida on Wednesday as the upper-level trough approaches. A marginal severe threat will again be possible ahead of the trough, with the greatest potential over southern Florida, where surface dewpoints will likely be near 70 F. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central states, as a shortwave ridge moves through the south-central U.S. On Friday and Saturday, the upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move across the eastern U.S., as another upper-level system develops in the West. During this time period, instability is forecast to be limited across the continental United States, which should minimize any severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. A complex of thunderstorms, associated with the trough, will likely move across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Most of the thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. However, a marginal severe threat will be possible near the coast in parts of far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across Florida on Wednesday as the upper-level trough approaches. A marginal severe threat will again be possible ahead of the trough, with the greatest potential over southern Florida, where surface dewpoints will likely be near 70 F. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central states, as a shortwave ridge moves through the south-central U.S. On Friday and Saturday, the upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move across the eastern U.S., as another upper-level system develops in the West. During this time period, instability is forecast to be limited across the continental United States, which should minimize any severe weather potential. Read more