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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into parts of southern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... An upper-ridge will dominate the central U.S. as a mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. A surface anticyclone will translate across the MS Valley toward the central Appalachians, introducing static stability and subsidence, limiting the thunderstorm threat. Likewise, cooler and stable conditions will also limit thunderstorm potential west of the Rockies. The best chance for any isolated thunderstorms will be along the TX/LA coastal areas, which will be traversed by an 850 mb low that will encourage warm-air advection over the region. ..Squitieri.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, and over the Big Bend area of Texas. No thunderstorms are expected over most of the United States today, except for parts of TX. A stalled front off the middle/lower Texas coast will continue to result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes could occur over inland areas later this afternoon. Other isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight well after dark over the Big Bend region of southwest TX as a southern-stream upper trough tracks across northern Mexico. No severe storms are forecast in either area. ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, and over the Big Bend area of Texas. No thunderstorms are expected over most of the United States today, except for parts of TX. A stalled front off the middle/lower Texas coast will continue to result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes could occur over inland areas later this afternoon. Other isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight well after dark over the Big Bend region of southwest TX as a southern-stream upper trough tracks across northern Mexico. No severe storms are forecast in either area. ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, and over the Big Bend area of Texas. No thunderstorms are expected over most of the United States today, except for parts of TX. A stalled front off the middle/lower Texas coast will continue to result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes could occur over inland areas later this afternoon. Other isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight well after dark over the Big Bend region of southwest TX as a southern-stream upper trough tracks across northern Mexico. No severe storms are forecast in either area. ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, and over the Big Bend area of Texas. No thunderstorms are expected over most of the United States today, except for parts of TX. A stalled front off the middle/lower Texas coast will continue to result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes could occur over inland areas later this afternoon. Other isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight well after dark over the Big Bend region of southwest TX as a southern-stream upper trough tracks across northern Mexico. No severe storms are forecast in either area. ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, and over the Big Bend area of Texas. No thunderstorms are expected over most of the United States today, except for parts of TX. A stalled front off the middle/lower Texas coast will continue to result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes could occur over inland areas later this afternoon. Other isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight well after dark over the Big Bend region of southwest TX as a southern-stream upper trough tracks across northern Mexico. No severe storms are forecast in either area. ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... Within the northern stream, one shortwave trough will move over the Upper Great Lakes and another will brush the Pacific Northwest coast. Buoyancy will be marginal (at best) with each of these troughs, and thunderstorms are unlikely. Farther south, a weak southern-stream trough will move slowly east-northeastward from Baja toward the TX Big Bend by early Monday. Very weak midlevel buoyancy may develop over the Big Bend with some chance for convection rooted in the mid levels, but the thunderstorm threat appears too low for an outlook area. A stalled front across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will help focus thunderstorm development. Some weak elevated CAPE could extend far enough northwest to support a few lightning flashes near the lower/middle TX coast. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... Within the northern stream, one shortwave trough will move over the Upper Great Lakes and another will brush the Pacific Northwest coast. Buoyancy will be marginal (at best) with each of these troughs, and thunderstorms are unlikely. Farther south, a weak southern-stream trough will move slowly east-northeastward from Baja toward the TX Big Bend by early Monday. Very weak midlevel buoyancy may develop over the Big Bend with some chance for convection rooted in the mid levels, but the thunderstorm threat appears too low for an outlook area. A stalled front across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will help focus thunderstorm development. Some weak elevated CAPE could extend far enough northwest to support a few lightning flashes near the lower/middle TX coast. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... Within the northern stream, one shortwave trough will move over the Upper Great Lakes and another will brush the Pacific Northwest coast. Buoyancy will be marginal (at best) with each of these troughs, and thunderstorms are unlikely. Farther south, a weak southern-stream trough will move slowly east-northeastward from Baja toward the TX Big Bend by early Monday. Very weak midlevel buoyancy may develop over the Big Bend with some chance for convection rooted in the mid levels, but the thunderstorm threat appears too low for an outlook area. A stalled front across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will help focus thunderstorm development. Some weak elevated CAPE could extend far enough northwest to support a few lightning flashes near the lower/middle TX coast. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... Within the northern stream, one shortwave trough will move over the Upper Great Lakes and another will brush the Pacific Northwest coast. Buoyancy will be marginal (at best) with each of these troughs, and thunderstorms are unlikely. Farther south, a weak southern-stream trough will move slowly east-northeastward from Baja toward the TX Big Bend by early Monday. Very weak midlevel buoyancy may develop over the Big Bend with some chance for convection rooted in the mid levels, but the thunderstorm threat appears too low for an outlook area. A stalled front across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will help focus thunderstorm development. Some weak elevated CAPE could extend far enough northwest to support a few lightning flashes near the lower/middle TX coast. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... Within the northern stream, one shortwave trough will move over the Upper Great Lakes and another will brush the Pacific Northwest coast. Buoyancy will be marginal (at best) with each of these troughs, and thunderstorms are unlikely. Farther south, a weak southern-stream trough will move slowly east-northeastward from Baja toward the TX Big Bend by early Monday. Very weak midlevel buoyancy may develop over the Big Bend with some chance for convection rooted in the mid levels, but the thunderstorm threat appears too low for an outlook area. A stalled front across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will help focus thunderstorm development. Some weak elevated CAPE could extend far enough northwest to support a few lightning flashes near the lower/middle TX coast. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... Within the northern stream, one shortwave trough will move over the Upper Great Lakes and another will brush the Pacific Northwest coast. Buoyancy will be marginal (at best) with each of these troughs, and thunderstorms are unlikely. Farther south, a weak southern-stream trough will move slowly east-northeastward from Baja toward the TX Big Bend by early Monday. Very weak midlevel buoyancy may develop over the Big Bend with some chance for convection rooted in the mid levels, but the thunderstorm threat appears too low for an outlook area. A stalled front across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will help focus thunderstorm development. Some weak elevated CAPE could extend far enough northwest to support a few lightning flashes near the lower/middle TX coast. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/12/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 7... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at 12Z on Wednesday across the northern Gulf of Mexico, and possibly along the central Gulf Coast. This complex of thunderstorms is forecast to move eastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, and across the Florida Peninsula Wednesday night. Although instability ahead of this convection will likely remain weak across the Florida Peninsula, a marginal severe threat will be possible in parts of central and southern Florida, where surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the lower 70s F. From Thursday to Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. southeastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As this occurs, surface high pressure is forecast to move into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, reinforcing a dry airmass already in place. ...Sunday/Day 8... On Sunday, an upper-level trough in the southern Rockies is forecast to move eastward into the southern High Plains. Low-level moisture advection ahead the system could result in surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F across parts of south and central Texas. Extended range model forecasts suggest that thunderstorms could develop Sunday night on the northwestern edge of the moist airmass from the Texas Hill Country into east Texas. An isolated severe threat would be possible, but uncertainty concerning any particular scenario is considerable at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 7... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at 12Z on Wednesday across the northern Gulf of Mexico, and possibly along the central Gulf Coast. This complex of thunderstorms is forecast to move eastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, and across the Florida Peninsula Wednesday night. Although instability ahead of this convection will likely remain weak across the Florida Peninsula, a marginal severe threat will be possible in parts of central and southern Florida, where surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the lower 70s F. From Thursday to Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. southeastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As this occurs, surface high pressure is forecast to move into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, reinforcing a dry airmass already in place. ...Sunday/Day 8... On Sunday, an upper-level trough in the southern Rockies is forecast to move eastward into the southern High Plains. Low-level moisture advection ahead the system could result in surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F across parts of south and central Texas. Extended range model forecasts suggest that thunderstorms could develop Sunday night on the northwestern edge of the moist airmass from the Texas Hill Country into east Texas. An isolated severe threat would be possible, but uncertainty concerning any particular scenario is considerable at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 7... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at 12Z on Wednesday across the northern Gulf of Mexico, and possibly along the central Gulf Coast. This complex of thunderstorms is forecast to move eastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, and across the Florida Peninsula Wednesday night. Although instability ahead of this convection will likely remain weak across the Florida Peninsula, a marginal severe threat will be possible in parts of central and southern Florida, where surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the lower 70s F. From Thursday to Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. southeastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As this occurs, surface high pressure is forecast to move into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, reinforcing a dry airmass already in place. ...Sunday/Day 8... On Sunday, an upper-level trough in the southern Rockies is forecast to move eastward into the southern High Plains. Low-level moisture advection ahead the system could result in surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F across parts of south and central Texas. Extended range model forecasts suggest that thunderstorms could develop Sunday night on the northwestern edge of the moist airmass from the Texas Hill Country into east Texas. An isolated severe threat would be possible, but uncertainty concerning any particular scenario is considerable at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 7... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at 12Z on Wednesday across the northern Gulf of Mexico, and possibly along the central Gulf Coast. This complex of thunderstorms is forecast to move eastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, and across the Florida Peninsula Wednesday night. Although instability ahead of this convection will likely remain weak across the Florida Peninsula, a marginal severe threat will be possible in parts of central and southern Florida, where surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the lower 70s F. From Thursday to Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. southeastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As this occurs, surface high pressure is forecast to move into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, reinforcing a dry airmass already in place. ...Sunday/Day 8... On Sunday, an upper-level trough in the southern Rockies is forecast to move eastward into the southern High Plains. Low-level moisture advection ahead the system could result in surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F across parts of south and central Texas. Extended range model forecasts suggest that thunderstorms could develop Sunday night on the northwestern edge of the moist airmass from the Texas Hill Country into east Texas. An isolated severe threat would be possible, but uncertainty concerning any particular scenario is considerable at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 7... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at 12Z on Wednesday across the northern Gulf of Mexico, and possibly along the central Gulf Coast. This complex of thunderstorms is forecast to move eastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, and across the Florida Peninsula Wednesday night. Although instability ahead of this convection will likely remain weak across the Florida Peninsula, a marginal severe threat will be possible in parts of central and southern Florida, where surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the lower 70s F. From Thursday to Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. southeastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As this occurs, surface high pressure is forecast to move into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, reinforcing a dry airmass already in place. ...Sunday/Day 8... On Sunday, an upper-level trough in the southern Rockies is forecast to move eastward into the southern High Plains. Low-level moisture advection ahead the system could result in surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F across parts of south and central Texas. Extended range model forecasts suggest that thunderstorms could develop Sunday night on the northwestern edge of the moist airmass from the Texas Hill Country into east Texas. An isolated severe threat would be possible, but uncertainty concerning any particular scenario is considerable at this range. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Tuesday from near the upper Texas Coast eastward into southern Louisiana, but no severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through Texas on Tuesday, as flow remains mostly from the southwest across the western Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a low will likely develop across the western Gulf of Mexico located a couple hundred miles to the east of Brownsville, Texas. A moist airmass will remain mostly offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, except across far southern Louisiana where surface dewpoints could reach the mid 60s F. Increasing low-level flow and convergence will result in scattered thunderstorm development during the day in the western Gulf of Mexico. By Tuesday night, thunderstorms could affect parts of southern Louisiana as the system approaches. Instability over land will likely remain insufficient for a severe threat Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Tuesday from near the upper Texas Coast eastward into southern Louisiana, but no severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through Texas on Tuesday, as flow remains mostly from the southwest across the western Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a low will likely develop across the western Gulf of Mexico located a couple hundred miles to the east of Brownsville, Texas. A moist airmass will remain mostly offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, except across far southern Louisiana where surface dewpoints could reach the mid 60s F. Increasing low-level flow and convergence will result in scattered thunderstorm development during the day in the western Gulf of Mexico. By Tuesday night, thunderstorms could affect parts of southern Louisiana as the system approaches. Instability over land will likely remain insufficient for a severe threat Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Tuesday from near the upper Texas Coast eastward into southern Louisiana, but no severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through Texas on Tuesday, as flow remains mostly from the southwest across the western Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a low will likely develop across the western Gulf of Mexico located a couple hundred miles to the east of Brownsville, Texas. A moist airmass will remain mostly offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, except across far southern Louisiana where surface dewpoints could reach the mid 60s F. Increasing low-level flow and convergence will result in scattered thunderstorm development during the day in the western Gulf of Mexico. By Tuesday night, thunderstorms could affect parts of southern Louisiana as the system approaches. Instability over land will likely remain insufficient for a severe threat Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 11/12/2023 Read more