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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Across southwest TX and far southeast NM, gusty winds and low humidity are expected this afternoon behind the deepening area of low pressure over east TX. Morning observations showed poor humidity recoveries below 30% extending from the Rio Grande Valley into far southeastern NM. As winds increase to 25-30 mph through the morning and early afternoon, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions will likely develop. However, area fuel moisture remains above normal from recent rainfall, limiting greater fire-weather concerns. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Across southwest TX and far southeast NM, gusty winds and low humidity are expected this afternoon behind the deepening area of low pressure over east TX. Morning observations showed poor humidity recoveries below 30% extending from the Rio Grande Valley into far southeastern NM. As winds increase to 25-30 mph through the morning and early afternoon, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions will likely develop. However, area fuel moisture remains above normal from recent rainfall, limiting greater fire-weather concerns. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Across southwest TX and far southeast NM, gusty winds and low humidity are expected this afternoon behind the deepening area of low pressure over east TX. Morning observations showed poor humidity recoveries below 30% extending from the Rio Grande Valley into far southeastern NM. As winds increase to 25-30 mph through the morning and early afternoon, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions will likely develop. However, area fuel moisture remains above normal from recent rainfall, limiting greater fire-weather concerns. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Across southwest TX and far southeast NM, gusty winds and low humidity are expected this afternoon behind the deepening area of low pressure over east TX. Morning observations showed poor humidity recoveries below 30% extending from the Rio Grande Valley into far southeastern NM. As winds increase to 25-30 mph through the morning and early afternoon, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions will likely develop. However, area fuel moisture remains above normal from recent rainfall, limiting greater fire-weather concerns. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Across southwest TX and far southeast NM, gusty winds and low humidity are expected this afternoon behind the deepening area of low pressure over east TX. Morning observations showed poor humidity recoveries below 30% extending from the Rio Grande Valley into far southeastern NM. As winds increase to 25-30 mph through the morning and early afternoon, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions will likely develop. However, area fuel moisture remains above normal from recent rainfall, limiting greater fire-weather concerns. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Across southwest TX and far southeast NM, gusty winds and low humidity are expected this afternoon behind the deepening area of low pressure over east TX. Morning observations showed poor humidity recoveries below 30% extending from the Rio Grande Valley into far southeastern NM. As winds increase to 25-30 mph through the morning and early afternoon, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions will likely develop. However, area fuel moisture remains above normal from recent rainfall, limiting greater fire-weather concerns. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Across southwest TX and far southeast NM, gusty winds and low humidity are expected this afternoon behind the deepening area of low pressure over east TX. Morning observations showed poor humidity recoveries below 30% extending from the Rio Grande Valley into far southeastern NM. As winds increase to 25-30 mph through the morning and early afternoon, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions will likely develop. However, area fuel moisture remains above normal from recent rainfall, limiting greater fire-weather concerns. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0105 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 14... FOR SOUTH FL AND THE UPPER FL KEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 0105 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0941 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Areas affected...South FL and the Upper FL Keys Concerning...Tornado Watch 14... Valid 041541Z - 041715Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 14 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado continues across south Florida and the Upper Florida Keys. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery continues to show a convective line extending southward from central FL into far south FL and then back southwestward through the Middle Keys. Buoyancy ahead of this line remains limited by poor lapse rates and only marginally warm/moist surface conditions. This limited buoyancy has tempered overall storm intensity/depth, with a generally shallow character to much of the convection. Even so, given the robust low to mid-level flow in place, a few stronger gusts have still been reported, including 36 and 37 kt at NQX and MTH, respectively. This trend is forecast to continue for the next hour/hour and a half before the line moves offshore. Recent KAMX does show a vertically veering low-level wind profile supportive of a brief tornado or two if greater updraft depth can be maintained. ..Mosier.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY... LAT...LON 24378130 24968084 25728069 26148065 26448059 26528022 26278004 25508015 24908053 24378130 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will continue across a small portion of southeastern FL, with low/additional risk possible across parts of FL later today/tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon. ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will continue across a small portion of southeastern FL, with low/additional risk possible across parts of FL later today/tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon. ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will continue across a small portion of southeastern FL, with low/additional risk possible across parts of FL later today/tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon. ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will continue across a small portion of southeastern FL, with low/additional risk possible across parts of FL later today/tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon. ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will continue across a small portion of southeastern FL, with low/additional risk possible across parts of FL later today/tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon. ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will continue across a small portion of southeastern FL, with low/additional risk possible across parts of FL later today/tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon. ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will continue across a small portion of southeastern FL, with low/additional risk possible across parts of FL later today/tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon. ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will continue across a small portion of southeastern FL, with low/additional risk possible across parts of FL later today/tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon. ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will continue across a small portion of southeastern FL, with low/additional risk possible across parts of FL later today/tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon. ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/04/2024 Read more

WW 0014 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 14 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW EYW TO 25 SW EYW TO 25 NNW MTH TO 50 N MTH TO 45 W MIA TO 35 E FMY. ..MOSIER..02/04/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...KEY... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 14 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-051-086-087-099-041640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD HENDRY MIAMI-DADE MONROE PALM BEACH AMZ630-650-651-GMZ031-032-042-043-044-052-053-054-041640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BISCAYNE BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND BLACKWATER SOUND AND BUTTONWOOD SOUND BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE Read more

WW 0014 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 14 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW EYW TO 25 SW EYW TO 25 NNW MTH TO 50 N MTH TO 45 W MIA TO 35 E FMY. ..MOSIER..02/04/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...KEY... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 14 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-051-086-087-099-041640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD HENDRY MIAMI-DADE MONROE PALM BEACH AMZ630-650-651-GMZ031-032-042-043-044-052-053-054-041640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BISCAYNE BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND BLACKWATER SOUND AND BUTTONWOOD SOUND BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over southern Florida the next several hours and may develop again later today into tonight over parts of the peninsula. A low-end tornado threat may develop near parts of the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid/upper level pattern will feature two substantial synoptic troughs/cyclones with convective implications: 1. A strongly negatively tilted trough from the central Rockies to the central/northern Gulf, with embedded circulation centers apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the TX Panhandle and northeast TX. The eastern center will take over and become a well-defined 500-mb low, moving southeastward across LA today into this evening, then over or just south of the western coastal FL Panhandle by 12Z tomorrow. Two basal shortwave troughs are apparent: a. Over the east-central Gulf, immediately preceded by a line of thunderstorms (see below), and forecast to eject northeastward over the FL Peninsula today. b. Over the lower/middle TX Coast, forecast to pivot southeastward then eastward across the central/eastern Gulf today and tonight, weakening as it approaches southwestern FL and the Keys between 06-12Z tomorrow. 2. A roughly south/north-elongated cyclone off the Pacific Coast, with several embedded vorticity maxima and at least transient circulation centers. The mean 500-mb center should remain offshore from northern CA trough the period, but drift eastward toward the coast. A well-defined, basal shortwave is evident west of southern CA near 130W, and should eject northeastward today, reaching the central CA coastline around 00Z. Surface analysis showed an occluded low inland of the Gulf Coast, over southern MS, and another low over the north-central/ northeastern Gulf around 125-150 nm south of MOB. A remnant Pacific cold front arched southeastward from that low, west of the Dry Tortugas, then southwestward toward the Yucatan Peninsula. This boundary should become more diffuse through the day, in deference to greater baroclinicity related to convective outflow just ahead of it. The low should move inland over the FL Panhandle this afternoon, reaching southeastern AL this evening before weakening. A warm front was approaching southwestern FL and the Keys, just ahead of the convection, and will remain close to the leading part of the thunderstorms as they cross south FL. ...FL... Multiple rounds of convection with at least marginal severe potential are possible through the period, with the greatest confidence in the "slight risk" area accompanying activity now approaching the southern part of the peninsula. This initial activity has formed and maintained as the large-scale ascent/DCVA and related low/middle-level lapse rates have shifted atop the warm Loop Current, aided by lift associated with a remnant Pacific front. A destabilizing (but not fully modified) return-flow airmass will immediately precede this activity across southern FL this morning, supporting potential for damaging gusts and isolated hail. An embedded tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. See tornado watch 14 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term details on this threat. A more-conditional severe threat will develop farther north, both over inland areas ahead of the northern part of the initial MCS, and in the zone of potential destabilization behind it. With residual moisture behind the morning complex, and perhaps a narrow corridor of moist advection around the western rim of the old outflow pool, around 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by late afternoon. This will be possible as strong cooling aloft overlies a corridor of diabatic surface heating/destabilization. Favorable deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes 50-65 kt) will be present. The largest hodographs will be present from midday into mid/afternoon with southeasterly near-surface winds, however, that flow will be advecting convectively processes air from south FL. Hodographs should shrink thereafter, but still remain somewhat favorable for supercells. Uncertainties on convective coverage and amount of recovery behind the initial complex still preclude greater unconditional probabilities. Overnight, additional MCS development is progged over the central Gulf ahead of the second shortwave trough, but with the activity possibly weakening as it approaches southern FL and the Keys the last few hours of the period. That trend would be related to both nocturnal stabilization inland, and weakening/ejection of the shortwave trough northeastward away from the complex. Still, potential may exist for strong to marginally severe convection to reach these areas before 12Z. ...CA... Net columnar destabilization related to low-level warm advection, then midlevel cooling, should occur through the day. This, atop the moist marine layer, should lead to just enough destabilization of low/middle-level lapse rates for surface-based convection, including sporadic thunderstorms. SBCAPE and MLCAPE in the 100-300 J/kg range should become common after about 21Z. Time series of forecast soundings suggests a few-hour window where flow is not yet too veered to support enlarged hodographs and supercell-favorable deep shear, with effective-shear magnitudes around 35-45-kt possible. Given these profiles, fast-moving, low-topped convection may pose a threat for strong to marginally severe gusts and/or a brief tornado. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 02/04/2024 Read more