Aggregator

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Tuesday from near the upper Texas Coast eastward into southern Louisiana, but no severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through Texas on Tuesday, as flow remains mostly from the southwest across the western Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a low will likely develop across the western Gulf of Mexico located a couple hundred miles to the east of Brownsville, Texas. A moist airmass will remain mostly offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, except across far southern Louisiana where surface dewpoints could reach the mid 60s F. Increasing low-level flow and convergence will result in scattered thunderstorm development during the day in the western Gulf of Mexico. By Tuesday night, thunderstorms could affect parts of southern Louisiana as the system approaches. Instability over land will likely remain insufficient for a severe threat Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Tuesday from near the upper Texas Coast eastward into southern Louisiana, but no severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through Texas on Tuesday, as flow remains mostly from the southwest across the western Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a low will likely develop across the western Gulf of Mexico located a couple hundred miles to the east of Brownsville, Texas. A moist airmass will remain mostly offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, except across far southern Louisiana where surface dewpoints could reach the mid 60s F. Increasing low-level flow and convergence will result in scattered thunderstorm development during the day in the western Gulf of Mexico. By Tuesday night, thunderstorms could affect parts of southern Louisiana as the system approaches. Instability over land will likely remain insufficient for a severe threat Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential remains limited for Monday across the country, though concerns may emerge across parts of eastern WY as well as northwest KS into NE. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts upper ridging over the western CONUS, which is forecast to shift east to the Plains by Monday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the central/northern Rockies will support lee troughing along the central to northern High Plains. Westerly downslope winds across eastern WY should support additional drying of an antecedent dry air mass with RH values in the low teens to single digits possible. To the east of the surface trough, 15-25 mph southerly gradient winds appear probable across northwest KS to central NE. Minimal moisture return coupled with mostly clear skies should promote diurnal RH reductions to near 20%. While elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible for both regions, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are generally near or below the 80th percentile, casting some uncertainty onto fuel status. Fuels appear to be driest across northwest KS where 30-day rainfall deficits are most pronounced, but this may be offset from the stronger winds/lower RH to the north. Trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if confidence in the fire weather threat increases. ..Moore.. 11/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential remains limited for Monday across the country, though concerns may emerge across parts of eastern WY as well as northwest KS into NE. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts upper ridging over the western CONUS, which is forecast to shift east to the Plains by Monday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the central/northern Rockies will support lee troughing along the central to northern High Plains. Westerly downslope winds across eastern WY should support additional drying of an antecedent dry air mass with RH values in the low teens to single digits possible. To the east of the surface trough, 15-25 mph southerly gradient winds appear probable across northwest KS to central NE. Minimal moisture return coupled with mostly clear skies should promote diurnal RH reductions to near 20%. While elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible for both regions, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are generally near or below the 80th percentile, casting some uncertainty onto fuel status. Fuels appear to be driest across northwest KS where 30-day rainfall deficits are most pronounced, but this may be offset from the stronger winds/lower RH to the north. Trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if confidence in the fire weather threat increases. ..Moore.. 11/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential remains limited for Monday across the country, though concerns may emerge across parts of eastern WY as well as northwest KS into NE. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts upper ridging over the western CONUS, which is forecast to shift east to the Plains by Monday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the central/northern Rockies will support lee troughing along the central to northern High Plains. Westerly downslope winds across eastern WY should support additional drying of an antecedent dry air mass with RH values in the low teens to single digits possible. To the east of the surface trough, 15-25 mph southerly gradient winds appear probable across northwest KS to central NE. Minimal moisture return coupled with mostly clear skies should promote diurnal RH reductions to near 20%. While elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible for both regions, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are generally near or below the 80th percentile, casting some uncertainty onto fuel status. Fuels appear to be driest across northwest KS where 30-day rainfall deficits are most pronounced, but this may be offset from the stronger winds/lower RH to the north. Trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if confidence in the fire weather threat increases. ..Moore.. 11/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential remains limited for Monday across the country, though concerns may emerge across parts of eastern WY as well as northwest KS into NE. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts upper ridging over the western CONUS, which is forecast to shift east to the Plains by Monday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the central/northern Rockies will support lee troughing along the central to northern High Plains. Westerly downslope winds across eastern WY should support additional drying of an antecedent dry air mass with RH values in the low teens to single digits possible. To the east of the surface trough, 15-25 mph southerly gradient winds appear probable across northwest KS to central NE. Minimal moisture return coupled with mostly clear skies should promote diurnal RH reductions to near 20%. While elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible for both regions, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are generally near or below the 80th percentile, casting some uncertainty onto fuel status. Fuels appear to be driest across northwest KS where 30-day rainfall deficits are most pronounced, but this may be offset from the stronger winds/lower RH to the north. Trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if confidence in the fire weather threat increases. ..Moore.. 11/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential remains limited for Monday across the country, though concerns may emerge across parts of eastern WY as well as northwest KS into NE. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts upper ridging over the western CONUS, which is forecast to shift east to the Plains by Monday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the central/northern Rockies will support lee troughing along the central to northern High Plains. Westerly downslope winds across eastern WY should support additional drying of an antecedent dry air mass with RH values in the low teens to single digits possible. To the east of the surface trough, 15-25 mph southerly gradient winds appear probable across northwest KS to central NE. Minimal moisture return coupled with mostly clear skies should promote diurnal RH reductions to near 20%. While elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible for both regions, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are generally near or below the 80th percentile, casting some uncertainty onto fuel status. Fuels appear to be driest across northwest KS where 30-day rainfall deficits are most pronounced, but this may be offset from the stronger winds/lower RH to the north. Trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if confidence in the fire weather threat increases. ..Moore.. 11/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will generally remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show an extensive dry air mass in place from the southern Great Basin/southern CA to the central Plains. This air mass is forecast to spread north into Great Basin as southerly winds strengthen in response to an approaching surface low off the Pacific Northwest coast. While RH reductions into the teens to low 20s are expected, gradient winds will generally remain near/below 15 mph with occasional gusts upwards of 20 mph. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central NV to far southern ID, but the patchy/transient nature of such conditions, combined with only modestly dry fuels per recent analyses, negate the need for highlights. ...Southern CA... An offshore flow regime remains in place along the southern CA coast early Sunday morning with a few locations reporting elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Such conditions should lingering into the late morning hours before offshore winds begin to abate later today, and are expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 11/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will generally remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show an extensive dry air mass in place from the southern Great Basin/southern CA to the central Plains. This air mass is forecast to spread north into Great Basin as southerly winds strengthen in response to an approaching surface low off the Pacific Northwest coast. While RH reductions into the teens to low 20s are expected, gradient winds will generally remain near/below 15 mph with occasional gusts upwards of 20 mph. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central NV to far southern ID, but the patchy/transient nature of such conditions, combined with only modestly dry fuels per recent analyses, negate the need for highlights. ...Southern CA... An offshore flow regime remains in place along the southern CA coast early Sunday morning with a few locations reporting elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Such conditions should lingering into the late morning hours before offshore winds begin to abate later today, and are expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 11/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will generally remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show an extensive dry air mass in place from the southern Great Basin/southern CA to the central Plains. This air mass is forecast to spread north into Great Basin as southerly winds strengthen in response to an approaching surface low off the Pacific Northwest coast. While RH reductions into the teens to low 20s are expected, gradient winds will generally remain near/below 15 mph with occasional gusts upwards of 20 mph. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central NV to far southern ID, but the patchy/transient nature of such conditions, combined with only modestly dry fuels per recent analyses, negate the need for highlights. ...Southern CA... An offshore flow regime remains in place along the southern CA coast early Sunday morning with a few locations reporting elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Such conditions should lingering into the late morning hours before offshore winds begin to abate later today, and are expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 11/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will generally remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show an extensive dry air mass in place from the southern Great Basin/southern CA to the central Plains. This air mass is forecast to spread north into Great Basin as southerly winds strengthen in response to an approaching surface low off the Pacific Northwest coast. While RH reductions into the teens to low 20s are expected, gradient winds will generally remain near/below 15 mph with occasional gusts upwards of 20 mph. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central NV to far southern ID, but the patchy/transient nature of such conditions, combined with only modestly dry fuels per recent analyses, negate the need for highlights. ...Southern CA... An offshore flow regime remains in place along the southern CA coast early Sunday morning with a few locations reporting elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Such conditions should lingering into the late morning hours before offshore winds begin to abate later today, and are expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 11/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will generally remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show an extensive dry air mass in place from the southern Great Basin/southern CA to the central Plains. This air mass is forecast to spread north into Great Basin as southerly winds strengthen in response to an approaching surface low off the Pacific Northwest coast. While RH reductions into the teens to low 20s are expected, gradient winds will generally remain near/below 15 mph with occasional gusts upwards of 20 mph. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central NV to far southern ID, but the patchy/transient nature of such conditions, combined with only modestly dry fuels per recent analyses, negate the need for highlights. ...Southern CA... An offshore flow regime remains in place along the southern CA coast early Sunday morning with a few locations reporting elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Such conditions should lingering into the late morning hours before offshore winds begin to abate later today, and are expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 11/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into parts of far southwestern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move across northern Mexico on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly across the western Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico. During the day, increasing low-level flow and convergence across the western Gulf will support scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms will gradually spread northeastward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Monday night. Any significant instability will likely remain well offshore, making conditions unfavorable for severe storms over land. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into parts of far southwestern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move across northern Mexico on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly across the western Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico. During the day, increasing low-level flow and convergence across the western Gulf will support scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms will gradually spread northeastward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Monday night. Any significant instability will likely remain well offshore, making conditions unfavorable for severe storms over land. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into parts of far southwestern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move across northern Mexico on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly across the western Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico. During the day, increasing low-level flow and convergence across the western Gulf will support scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms will gradually spread northeastward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Monday night. Any significant instability will likely remain well offshore, making conditions unfavorable for severe storms over land. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into parts of far southwestern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move across northern Mexico on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly across the western Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico. During the day, increasing low-level flow and convergence across the western Gulf will support scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms will gradually spread northeastward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Monday night. Any significant instability will likely remain well offshore, making conditions unfavorable for severe storms over land. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into parts of far southwestern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move across northern Mexico on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly across the western Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico. During the day, increasing low-level flow and convergence across the western Gulf will support scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms will gradually spread northeastward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Monday night. Any significant instability will likely remain well offshore, making conditions unfavorable for severe storms over land. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Lower/Middle TX Coast... Upper trough, currently located over the Baja Peninsula, will eject slowly east across northern Mexico Sunday. High-level diffluent flow will be more pronounced downstream across south TX as this feature translates toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. In response, a weak surface wave will evolve over the western Gulf Basin, just off the south TX Coast. Strengthening 850mb flow atop this coastal front will encourage elevated convection, despite the marginal lapse rates, as thermodynamic profiles will be quite moist, leading to weak buoyancy. NAM forecast soundings for coastal South TX suggest upwards of 500 J/kg of MUCAPE may evolve if lifting a parcel near 1km. This should be more than adequate for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Lower/Middle TX Coast... Upper trough, currently located over the Baja Peninsula, will eject slowly east across northern Mexico Sunday. High-level diffluent flow will be more pronounced downstream across south TX as this feature translates toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. In response, a weak surface wave will evolve over the western Gulf Basin, just off the south TX Coast. Strengthening 850mb flow atop this coastal front will encourage elevated convection, despite the marginal lapse rates, as thermodynamic profiles will be quite moist, leading to weak buoyancy. NAM forecast soundings for coastal South TX suggest upwards of 500 J/kg of MUCAPE may evolve if lifting a parcel near 1km. This should be more than adequate for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Lower/Middle TX Coast... Upper trough, currently located over the Baja Peninsula, will eject slowly east across northern Mexico Sunday. High-level diffluent flow will be more pronounced downstream across south TX as this feature translates toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. In response, a weak surface wave will evolve over the western Gulf Basin, just off the south TX Coast. Strengthening 850mb flow atop this coastal front will encourage elevated convection, despite the marginal lapse rates, as thermodynamic profiles will be quite moist, leading to weak buoyancy. NAM forecast soundings for coastal South TX suggest upwards of 500 J/kg of MUCAPE may evolve if lifting a parcel near 1km. This should be more than adequate for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/12/2023 Read more