Aggregator

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023 899 WTPZ45 KNHC 032042 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023 Lidia continues to exhibit a curved band on geostationary and microwave satellite imagery this afternoon. Deep convection is predominately developing to the west of the low-level center due to the influence of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory in agreement with the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the objective intensity estimates, ADT and AiDT from UW-CIMSS. The system is moving northwest at 320/7 kt around the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. A mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest will begin to weaken the ridge allowing Lidia to move northwest to north-northwest during the next 48 hours. Most models are now in agreement with a more westward motion in Lidia between 48 and 72 hours. There are large differences in the speed of the system, with the UKMET accelerating towards the west faster than the other global models. The forward speed of the system was adjusted slightly faster for this advisory in the short term, and the track forecast is in line with the simple consensus aids. Lidia is still battling some moderate easterly vertical wind shear. The ECMWF/GFS SHIPS guidance depicts that moderate shear will remain over the system throughout much of the forecast period despite otherwise favorable environmental conditions. The guidance for RI continues to lessen the probability with this cycle. The GFS, HWRF, and SHIPS models still strengthen Lidia into a hurricane beyond 2 days, however much of the other guidance, including the HAFS models, does not intensify Lidia as much. The NHC intensity forecast was lowered slightly from the previous advisory and continues to show gradual strengthening to a hurricane by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 12.8N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 13.7N 108.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 14.5N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 15.2N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 15.7N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 15.9N 110.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 15.9N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 15.7N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 15.8N 114.1W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Stevenson

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 032041 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 7( 7) 21(28) 9(37) 11(48) 3(51) 1(52) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 6(17) 2(19) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 11(20) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 17(30) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/STEVENSON

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 032041 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 107.6W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 107.6W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 107.4W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.7N 108.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.5N 108.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.2N 109.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.7N 109.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.9N 110.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.9N 111.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 15.7N 112.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 15.8N 114.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 107.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/STEVENSON

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 032041 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023 ...LITTLE CHANGE IN LIDIA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 107.6W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 107.6 West. Lidia is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a northwest to north-northwest motion will continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast over the next few days, and Lidia could become a hurricane late this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Stevenson

...LITTLE CHANGE IN LIDIA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 the center of Lidia was located near 12.8, -107.6 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes should occur this afternoon and evening, centered on the central Plains. ...20Z Update... The only appreciable change with this update was to expand probabilities slightly westward across western KS. A moist and unstable airmass is present along and east of a cold front across the central Plains. Scattered severe hail should continue to be the main threat in the short term with multiple supercells that have developed across parts of western KS into southwestern NE. Damaging winds may become an increasing concern later this afternoon and evening as convection should attempt to grow upscale into a small bowing cluster along/near the cold front in NE. The threat for a few tornadoes is less clear, as low-level moisture remains somewhat limited. Still, some chance may exist with any supercell that can remain discrete through the early evening, as low-level shear gradually increases in tandem with a modestly strengthening low-level jet. ..Gleason.. 10/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023/ ...Central Great Plains... Multiple rounds of scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, yielding a messy, multifaceted severe weather scenario. Initial ascent along the leading edge of the High Plains buoyancy plume has supported persistent shower and isolated thunderstorms from the eastern OK Panhandle to the north-central KS/south-central NE border area. Most 12Z HREF guidance suggest intensifying thunderstorms will probably evolve in the immediate wake of this activity with the bulk of greater destabilization occurring to its west amid steepening mid-level lapse rates, with decreasing buoyancy ahead of it. Modest mid-level lapse rates and inverted-v low-level thermodynamic profiles downstream should support a threat for mostly isolated severe hail and wind along the leading edge. There will be potential for more intense supercell development along the southwest backside of this initial lobe, around the southwest to south-central KS vicinity, as a plume of MLCAPE from 2000-2500 J/kg impinges on this region from the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. This could favor a threat for isolated very large hail up to baseball size during the late afternoon to early evening. The primary lobe of ascent attendant to the shortwave impulse ejecting onto the central High Plains from the Front Range should initiate scattered thunderstorms in a few hours as it impinges on the buoyancy plume. This activity should further intensify along the surface front across far northeast CO and northwest KS into central NE later this afternoon. A plume of upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support supercells conditionally capable of producing significant severe hail. However, consensus of CAM guidance suggests relatively quick upscale growth may occur given the strong forcing for ascent and deep-layer shear vector generally paralleling the surface front. In addition, the gap between these front-aided storms and those within the downstream warm-advection plume should shrink during the evening, further lowering confidence on sustaining discrete supercells. A mix of large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, with convection weakening to the north and east given the expected sharpness of the instability gradient towards the Mid-MO Valley. ...Southern Great Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear most probable along the trailing periphery of the KS convective plume into northwest OK, and separately near the dryline in the Permian Basin vicinity during the late afternoon and farther northeast into northwest TX this evening. Mid-level lapse rates with southern extent will be increasingly modest relative to typical severe weather setups along the dryline, suggesting that hail magnitudes may struggle beyond golf ball size. A more favorable wind profile/lapse rate combination for significant severe hail will exist in the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK vicinity, but storm coverage is more questionable here. Overall, there will be sufficient vertical shear/buoyancy for splitting supercells capable of producing large hail and localized severe wind gusts through late evening. ...South-central ND vicinity... A corridor of weak surface-based buoyancy should develop downstream of a shortwave impulse gradually shifting east from the MT/WY/Dakotas border area. Steep mid-level lapse rates and elongation to the hodograph within the upper portion of the buoyancy profile could support a few cells producing marginally severe hail during the late afternoon to early evening. Read more

WW 0696 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 696 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF TO 55 SSE ALS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2212 ..LYONS..10/02/23 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 696 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-033-037-041-047-059-022340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES COLFAX CURRY DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE HARDING LEA MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL UNION TXC003-103-109-135-165-243-301-371-389-475-495-022340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR GAINES JEFF DAVIS LOVING PECOS REEVES WARD WINKLER Read more

WW 696 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 021900Z - 030200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 696 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico Southwest Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A few to several supercells should develop across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin with a primary threat of large hail. A tornado or two is possible, particularly in the east-central to southeast New Mexico portion of the watch. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northwest of Raton NM to 60 miles south southwest of Wink TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22025. ...Grams Read more

WW 0697 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0697 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 2212 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2212 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023 Areas affected...portions of the western TX Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022249Z - 030015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing strong to severe storms in eastern NM may pose a risk for damaging gusts and hail into portions of the western TX Panhandle and south Plains this evening. A new watch is possible, but uncertain. DISCUSSION...As of 2235 UTC, regional radar analysis showed scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, ongoing across parts of far eastern NM. Occasional severe gusts and hail have been occurring with this convection as it slowly tracks east/northeast toward the TX border. Thus far, the strongest vertical shear (observed from area VWPs and SPC SFCOA) has remained on the NM side of the border given the mostly meridional deep-layer flow. However, some of the stronger flow aloft may gradually shift eastward into the far western TX Panhandle and south Plains over the next couple of hours. The environment remains broadly favorable along the NM/TX border for storm organization into supercells with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 35-45 kt of effective shear. However, the severe threat likely decreases rapidly beyond the first row or two of counties in TX, with much weaker vertical shear and buoyancy in place over the central Panhandle. While uncertain, a few storms may pose enough of a severe risk that a new small weather watch is possible. ..Lyons/Edwards.. 10/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 35120304 35490291 35580260 35500235 35040217 34150213 33490210 33150211 33040216 32850235 32860264 32930288 33140307 35120304 Read more

WW 697 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 022310Z - 030700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 697 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 610 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme eastern New Mexico South Plains and northern Permian Basin of Texas * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 610 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...In addition to ongoing severe convection over NM, several strong-severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over the watch area on either side of the TX/NM line and move northward to northeastward through this evening, and past the valid time of watch 696. Damaging hail and severe gusts will be the main concerns, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles south southeast of Hobbs NM to 45 miles northeast of Cannon Afb NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 696... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 22025. ...Edwards Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022335
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 2 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next day or so. The system is forecast to move generally
northwestward through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

South of Central America:
An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of Central America during the next few days.
Afterward, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development of the disturbance, and a tropical
depression could form late this week or over the weekend while
the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Peoria area pumpkin growers have fewer pumpkins for their efforts this year, due to drought. Dry conditions delayed germination this year. WEEK (East Peoria, Ill.), Oct 2, 2023

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A broad trough currently in the Great Basin will continue to move east and lose amplitude through the middle of the week. Another reinforcing trough will dig southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. The trough will intensify in the Upper Midwest before becoming a strong upper low in the Northeast by the weekend. Ridging will build into the West over the next couple of days before slowly moving to the east. At the surface, the seasons first strong cold front will move into the Plains on Wednesday and eventually reach the Gulf/Southeast coasts by the weekend. High pressure will intensify in the Great Basin and Plains behind the front. Areas with the driest fuels from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley are expected to see some amount of precipitation along with cooler temperatures as the front progresses to the southeast. These conditions should keep potential for critical fire weather low during the extended period. ...Southern California... A warming and dry trend can be expected beginning Tuesday. Weak offshore flow is also expected to develop and peak Wednesday and Thursday mornings. While some drying of fuels will occur, the current state of fuels does not suggest much more than locally elevated conditions occurring. Barring any significant changes in fuel dryness over the next few days, the potential for critical fire weather continues to appear low. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest potential for scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing a couple tornadoes, significant large hail, and severe wind gusts remains across parts of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the southern High Plains. A few supercells posing a threat for large to perhaps very large hail have developed over parts of central/eastern NM. This convection is expected to spread east-northeastward across the southern High Plains through this evening, while posing a continued threat for isolated large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two given a favorable kinematic environment. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 for more details. Isolated thunderstorms should also pose some threat for severe hail/wind gusts across southeastern CO and vicinity. Confidence in greater coverage of potentially severe convection was not high enough to expand the Slight Risk across NM into southeastern CO. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 2210 for more information on the severe risk for this area. Low-level moisture remains fairly limited across the western NE and northeastern CO vicinity this afternoon, although some locations are reporting surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s along/south of a front draped across SD. Thunderstorms should eventually move northeastward off the higher terrain of the central Rockies and into the adjacent High Plains, with other convection possibly developing over northeastern CO. Given the well mixed boundary layer, severe downdraft winds still appear to be the primary severe hazard. But, isolated hail may occur with any supercell that can be sustained. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 2209 for more details on the near-term severe threat across this area. ..Gleason.. 10/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... Low to mid 60s surface dew points are pervasive across eastern NM and west TX. This will support a broader plume of moderate buoyancy this afternoon relative to the past couple days with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Scattered to eventually widespread thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of central to eastern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos, initiating in the early afternoon. Several discrete supercells should evolve across east-central/southeast NM and the Permian Basin. Modest low-level curvature beneath a moderately elongated and straight mid to upper hodograph should favor large hail production, some of which should reach golf ball size with potential for a few 2-2.5 inch sizes as well. A couple tornadoes will also be possible, most probable in the east-central NM vicinity where low-level hodographs should be slightly more enlarged with lower LCL heights. Storms should consolidate into east-northeast moving clusters by late afternoon to early evening with a strong to isolated severe wind threat spreading across parts of west TX before weakening after sunset. ...Central High Plains to the Dakotas... A lee cyclone becoming established over northeast CO will track north-northeast into southwest SD this evening as mid-level height falls increase downstream of a vigorous shortwave trough moving from UT into WY. A strengthening baroclinic zone, aided by ongoing differential boundary-layer heating within the nearly cloud-free warm sector and stratus lingering behind the front, will support intensifying thunderstorms that develop northeast off the Front Range. Consensus of 12Z HREF guidance supports a scenario of an organized cluster peaking across the western NE Panhandle vicinity in the late afternoon to early evening with a severe wind and isolated hail threat along the baroclinic zone. The severe wind/hail potential should decrease after sunset, but may continue tonight on an isolated basis across parts of the Dakotas. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0220 AM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper low over parts of the Southwest is forecast to weaken further D2/Tuesday as it begins to shift eastward over the Southern Rockies/Plains. Flow aloft along the eastern periphery of the low will also weaken, though a belt of somewhat enhanced flow should remain over parts of far southern NM. At the surface, a cooler air mass is expected in the wake of a weak cold front as cloud cover and precipitation chances increase. A few pockets of lower humidity are still possible, but RH recoveries will generally improve overnight. Daytime RH values should also remain higher, at roughly 20-30%. While a few hours of gusty winds may occasionally overlap with areas of lower RH through the day, moderating temperatures, the chance for precipitation, and limited overlap with dry fuels suggest the potential for sustained elevated or critical fire-weather conditions is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Drought and the high cost of raising cattle were leading ranchers in North Texas and across the U.S. to keep smaller herds. Beef production is expected to decline by 24.7 billion pounds, a historic low, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Consumers can anticipate beef prices to rise to new highs at the grocery store. KERA Public Media (Dallas, Texas), Oct 2, 2023

Cattle sales were higher, according to the co-owner of the auction in Decatur, north of Fort Worth. Weekly sales moved up to 2,200 head, compared to a normal sale of about 1,200 cattle as grass and water were in short supply. Ranchers parted with older cows first, but were down to selling young calves at present. KERA Public Media (Dallas, Texas), Oct 2, 2023

Sunflowers at a Sound Bend farm bloomed later than usual, due to the dry weather, and were also shorter than usual, reaching about 4 feet in height. ABC 57 WBND-TV South Bend News (South Bend, Ind.), Oct 2, 2023

A Stage 1 Water Shortage Advisory was declared for Hendersonville beginning Sept. 29 at midnight, due to continued dry conditions within the water supply and lower-than-normal flow measurements on the Mills River. The city manager made the declaration to ensure an adequate water supply is available for essential use and public safety. A Stage 1 Water Shortage Advisory was last issued on Aug. 24 and rescinded on Aug. 29 as conditions improved. BlueRidgeNow.com (Hendersonville, N.C.), Sept 28, 2023