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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2023 20:40:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2023 21:29:19 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 042037 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 9 7(16) 7(23) 3(26) 4(30) 2(32) 1(33) 15N 110W 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 2(15) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 9(30) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15(17) 16(33) 7(40) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/KONARIK

...LIDIA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 the center of Lidia was located near 15.2, -108.9 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper trough/low will develop late this week across the upper Midwest and Northeast. In the West and High Plains, upper-level ridging will build. Surface high pressure will cover much of the CONUS behind a cold front through part of the upcoming weekend. Model guidance does show a trough approaching the Northwest by early next week, but the timing and evolution of this trough and associated surface features is uncertain. Surface high pressure into the Great Basin and Northwest will drive some dry offshore winds in parts of northern and southern California into the weekend. Given the state of fuels in these areas, only locally elevated conditions are expected. Some dry and windy conditions are also possible in the West as the trough moves into the interior, but, again, fuels are currently not receptive and are not expected to become critically dry in the near future. Depending on the evolution of the next trough early next week, some high pressure may build into the Northwest and Great Basin. Additional offshore winds would then be possible around the middle /end of next week in southern California. Uncertainty remains high this far in advance. ..Wendt.. 10/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST TEXAS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning across parts of the southern Great Plains. Destructive, very large hail and a few significant severe wind gusts will be the main threats. Any tornado risk is expected to be brief. ...Much of western TX into southern OK... Scattered severe storms likely producing large hail have already developed across parts of the TX Panhandle and South Plains, with a few cells now moving into southwest OK. A front continues to drift southward across central OK and the TX Panhandle, with pressure falls noted within the surface trough. The greatest potential for particularly damaging hail appears to be located from northwest TX into southern OK through this afternoon and into the evening, as storms ride east/northeast along the boundary. The deepening moist layer, even with weak low-level winds, will provide favorable storm relative inflow for long-lived severe storms given moderate steering currents aloft. This, combined with additionally favorable mid to high level wind shear/elongated hodographs, suggest a storm or two could produce long swaths of significant hail. Additional severe storms producing hail will still be possible north of the boundary, as pockets of heating continue, and the air mass remains sufficiently unstable. The northeasterly boundary-layer winds north of the boundary may yield one or more left-moving cells. Other severe storms producing hail and damaging gusts are likely across much of West and western-North TX where the air mass continues to heat well ahead of the southward-moving front, including the area from Ft. Stockton/Midland northeastward toward Abilene. ..Jewell.. 10/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023/ ...Southern Great Plains... Confidence continues to increase with potential for a significant severe weather episode across north/west TX and south OK this afternoon into tonight, yielding expansion of the cat 3 severe risk. The northern extent of a rather rich western Gulf air mass has spread across much of north TX and southwest to east OK, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dew points. Moderate boundary-layer heating coupled with the rich moisture will yield a broad plume of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. Elevated thunderstorms may continue to shift east into northeast OK while renewed development across the TX Panhandle will probably intensify by early afternoon as it transitions to surface-based development along the southward-sagging composite cold front/large-scale outflow. Scattered thunderstorm development is also anticipated southward into the Trans-Pecos as low-level convergence/upslope increases near the dryline. A lack of surface cyclogenesis will result in relatively weak low-level mass response and correspondingly small low-level hodographs this afternoon in the warm sector. However, substantial speed shear above 700 mb will yield relatively straight and highly elongated mid to upper-level hodographs favoring splitting supercells with initial storm development. These initial supercells will be capable of producing very large to giant hail from 2-3.5 inches, mainly across west TX where steeper mid-level lapse rates and discrete supercell mode will persist longer. Farther north and east, consolidating outflow interactions and minimal convective inhibition will likely result in quicker upscale growth into clusters and bowing line segments by late afternoon/early evening as storm coverage becomes widespread. Still, given the favorable hodographs for strong mid-level rotation, longer-track embedded supercells will be possible, especially along the composite front/outflow across south OK initially, and over western north TX later. These may yield destructive wind-driven hail swaths with localized gusts reaching 75-85 mph. A large MCS is anticipated this evening, moving east-southeast over north/northeast TX with a decreasing severe wind risk overnight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... In the mid-levels, ridging across the western US is forecast to intensify through the forecast period. To the east, persistent troughing is excepted over the central and eastern US as a second shortwave moves south out of Canada. With high pressure over the West, some offshore flow may linger over parts of southern CA through the day and into the overnight. However, with a cooler air mass and widespread precip over the preceding days, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0699 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 699 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE GLD TO 50 WSW HLC TO 30 S MCK TO 10 ENE MCK TO 10 N BBW TO 35 NW BUB. ..LYONS..10/03/23 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 699 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-051-063-065-101-135-137-141-147-163-165-171-179-183-195- 203-032340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR ELLIS GOVE GRAHAM LANE NESS NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS ROOKS RUSH SCOTT SHERIDAN SMITH TREGO WICHITA NEC001-015-019-047-061-065-071-073-077-079-083-089-093-099-137- 145-163-175-181-183-032340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOYD BUFFALO DAWSON FRANKLIN FURNAS GARFIELD GOSPER GREELEY HALL HARLAN HOLT HOWARD KEARNEY PHELPS Read more

WW 699 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 031820Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 699 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far northeast Colorado Northwest to north-central Kansas Southwest to central Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A few to several supercells should develop but quickly grow upscale into northeast-moving clusters. Large hail will be the primary initial threat with sporadic severe wind gusts becoming more prominent towards early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles southwest of Hill City KS to 15 miles north northeast of Broken Bow NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Grams Read more

WW 0700 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 700 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..10/03/23 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 700 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-033-043-081-103-105-115-135-151-173-227-235-317-329-335- 353-371-383-415-431-443-451-461-040040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN BREWSTER COKE CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GLASSCOCK HOWARD IRION MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN PECOS REAGAN SCURRY STERLING TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 700 SEVERE TSTM TX 032005Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 700 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A few supercells are likely initially near the Lower Pecos Valley and then developing north across the eastern Permian Basin vicinity. Large hail up to golf ball size will be the main threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles south southeast of Fort Stockton TX to 55 miles north northeast of Big Spring TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 699... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Grams Read more

WW 0701 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0701 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 701 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MN NE SD 032205Z - 040400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 701 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Iowa North Central Kansas Southwest Minnesota Eastern Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms will spread northeastward across the watch area this evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging winds and large hail. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north of Brookings SD to 45 miles west southwest of Beatrice NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 699...WW 700... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0702 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0702 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 702 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 032230Z - 040500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 702 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 530 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are rapidly forming over southwest Kansas. These storms will build northeastward through the evening, posing a risk of very large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Concordia KS to 35 miles west of Alva OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 699...WW 700...WW 701... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

MD 2223 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 699...701... FOR EASTERN NE...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN...AND FAR WESTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 2223 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023 Areas affected...eastern NE...southeast SD...southwest MN...and far western IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699...701... Valid 032356Z - 040130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699, 701 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing storms will continue to grow upscale into a QLCS. The risk for winds and a brief tornado or two will continue. DISCUSSION...As of 2345 UTC, regional radar analysis shows much of the storms over NE and SD have grown upscale into a QLCS. Ahead of this line, the environment remains weak to moderately unstable, sufficient for storm maintenance. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear will continue to support storm organization within the QLCS. The linear mode will support a risk for damaging winds (some 70+ mph), especially with any sustained bowing segments or embedded supercells. Low-level shear should also increase into this evening as the low-level jet strengthens over eastern NE and far southeast SD. Area VADs already show initial signs of this with enlarging low-level hodographs below 1 km. While storm mode and boundary-layer RH are not optimal, a tornado or two will remain possible with embedded supercells or QLCS features this evening. Severe trends will be monitored over the next couple of hours for any local extension of WW701 eastward ..Lyons.. 10/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID... LAT...LON 42989587 42499582 41779574 41249573 40869581 40549590 40199612 40079651 39889770 39999820 40079840 40299856 40589852 41119833 41359829 42649799 42969783 43279775 43619775 44219778 44529745 44609714 44599647 44289606 43869599 42989587 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 032315
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lidia, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

South of Central America:
An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of Central America during the next few days.
Afterward, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system
moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Lidia are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Lidia are issued under WMO
header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A strong upper trough will develop within the Upper Midwest through the remainder of this week before moving into the Northeast and becoming a large upper-level low this weekend. In the West and Plains, upper-level ridging will develop. Models indicate some potential for a trough to move into the West Coast early next week. At the surface, a cold front will move through the southern Plains and eventually the Gulf/Mid-Atlantic Coasts by the weekend. High pressure will be present in the Great Basin with some modest reinforcement this weekend as a stronger surface high moves south into the Plains. Given the precipitation and cooler temperatures expected with the frontal system in the Plains into the Mississippi Valley, potential for critical fire weather is expected to remain low during the period. Some weak offshore flow is still possible in southern California, which should peak Wednesday morning. Fuel conditions remain rather moist and only locally elevated conditions are anticipated. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Oct 2023 20:43:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Oct 2023 21:29:32 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023 899 WTPZ45 KNHC 032042 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023 Lidia continues to exhibit a curved band on geostationary and microwave satellite imagery this afternoon. Deep convection is predominately developing to the west of the low-level center due to the influence of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory in agreement with the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the objective intensity estimates, ADT and AiDT from UW-CIMSS. The system is moving northwest at 320/7 kt around the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. A mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest will begin to weaken the ridge allowing Lidia to move northwest to north-northwest during the next 48 hours. Most models are now in agreement with a more westward motion in Lidia between 48 and 72 hours. There are large differences in the speed of the system, with the UKMET accelerating towards the west faster than the other global models. The forward speed of the system was adjusted slightly faster for this advisory in the short term, and the track forecast is in line with the simple consensus aids. Lidia is still battling some moderate easterly vertical wind shear. The ECMWF/GFS SHIPS guidance depicts that moderate shear will remain over the system throughout much of the forecast period despite otherwise favorable environmental conditions. The guidance for RI continues to lessen the probability with this cycle. The GFS, HWRF, and SHIPS models still strengthen Lidia into a hurricane beyond 2 days, however much of the other guidance, including the HAFS models, does not intensify Lidia as much. The NHC intensity forecast was lowered slightly from the previous advisory and continues to show gradual strengthening to a hurricane by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 12.8N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 13.7N 108.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 14.5N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 15.2N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 15.7N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 15.9N 110.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 15.9N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 15.7N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 15.8N 114.1W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Stevenson