Aggregator

A sugar cane grower near Port Allen in West Baton Rouge Parish reported that his stalks were just five feet tall rather than about seven feet like usual. He expected to harvest 20% to 30% less than he typically does. Harvest will continue through the end of the year. WAFB-TV CBS 9 Baton Rouge (La.), Sept 28, 2023

The U.S. hydropower generation forecast fell by 6%, compared to last year, due to drought and heat in the U.S. Northwest this past spring and summer which lowered water supply. The Northwest generated 24% less hydropower in the first half of this year than during the same period in 2022. This year, the forecast was for 19% less hydropower generation in the Northwest than in 2022. About one-half of the country’s hydropower is generated in the Northwest. U.S. Energy Information Administration (Washington, D.C.), Sept 28, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282330
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 28 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwestern East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development of this system is not expected due to unfavorable
environmental conditions. The wave is forecast to continue moving
westward across the central Pacific during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

South of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of Mexico early
next week. Slow development of the system will be possible while it
moves generally northwestward off the southwest coast of Mexico
during the middle to late portions of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 28 23:16:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 28 23:16:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move slowly eastward over the western CONUS on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday. Preceding this feature, a belt of strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry air mass from parts of the Southwest into the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. Ample boundary-layer mixing into the strong deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will yield an expansive area of 20-25+ mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH over the aforementioned areas on Day 3/Saturday. Strong surface winds will persist across the same areas on Day 4/Sunday (with a slight eastward shift in the strongest winds), though substantial RH reductions will generally be confined to portions of the Southwest. Widespread elevated to locally critical conditions are expected for both days, with the primary limiting factor being marginally receptive fuels where the best overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected. Father east, persistent lee troughing will favor breezy southerly surface winds over portions of the central and southern Plains each day. Along the western edge of the richer boundary-layer moisture return, a slim overlap of the strong winds and low RH is possible over portions of the central and southern High Plains. However, the potential for critical conditions appears too low for probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-8/Monday-Thursday... The large-scale trough and related enhanced flow aloft will move gradually eastward across the central CONUS. Similar to Day 4/Sunday, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds (albeit slightly weaker) are expected over the central/southern Plains on Day 5/Monday, with similar uncertainties regarding RH reductions. Thereafter, a cold front and related precipitation should overspread the Great Plains, generally reducing the fire-weather risk across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 09/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Central and Southern Plains... An Elevated area was added from parts of west-central KS south-southwestward into portions of northeast NM. From KS into northwest OK, 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph) will primarily support a wind-driven fire risk given marginal RH reductions (25-30 percent) along the western edge of the more-substantial boundary-layer moisture return. Given the strong/gusty winds, lower to middle 90s temperatures, and somewhat marginal RH/fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. From portions of the OK/TX Panhandles into northeast NM, the combination of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph west-southwesterly surface winds will also favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of southern WY into adjacent areas of UT and CO Friday afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery across the northeast Pacific depicts two shortwave impulses embedded within the mean northwesterly flow. The second of these is expected to amplify over the next 48 hours along the West Coast, resulting in strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow from the lower CO River Valley into the central Rockies. This flow regime will also maintain dry conditions across the Great Basin. Consequently, dry and windy conditions are forecast across a large swath of the Great Basin Friday afternoon. Recent ensemble guidance suggests elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are probable, but may be patchy in nature across the region. This, combined with generally unreceptive fuels for most locations, limits confidence in the coverage of the fire weather threat. However, portions of southern WY, northeast UT, and northwest CO should see favorable overlap of elevated conditions with dry fuels - especially after several previous days of similarly dry/windy weather. Elsewhere, windy conditions are expected across KS and southern NE as a lee trough continues to strengthen. While 20+ mph winds are expected, confidence in sub-25% RH is limited due to persistent moisture advection from the south. Trends will continue to be monitored for fuel dryness and the quality of moisture return. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast reasoning remains unchanged, and the only change made to the previous outlook was expanding general thunder northwestward across Far West TX. A strong storm or two remains possible across western KY/TN this afternoon and evening, but generally weak shear and warm temperatures aloft should keep the overall severe potential low. Small hail also remain possible late tonight/early Friday from eastern SD into southwest MN. Marginal environmental conditions should keep the potential for severe hail low. ..Mosier.. 09/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023/ ...Kentucky/Tennessee... A relatively small cluster of thunderstorms continues to persist southeastward along the western Kentucky/Tennessee border vicinity late this morning. These storms, and the frontal zone just to the north, regionally reside on the southwest periphery of an upper low centered near Lower Michigan, within a cyclonically curved belt of moderately strong mid-level westerlies. The midday-ongoing storms do not appear likely to produce severe weather, although some strong storms could redevelop later this afternoon in the same general vicinity across western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. This will be as the synoptic front stalls or moves slightly southward, with outflows/differential heating on the western edge of persistent early day convection also factors. While a narrow zone of moderate instability will exist in this corridor later today, mid-level height rises are expected and effective shear should generally remain 30 kt or less. While a locally severe storm or two cannot be conclusively ruled out late this afternoon/early evening, the potential for organized/sustained storms is currently expected to remain low. ...Eastern SD/far southeast ND and southwest/south-central MN... Late tonight, low-level warm advection is expected to increase across the region, largely in response to an approaching shortwave trough. As a low-level jet strengthens into the region, elevated convection is expected to develop after midnight. Forecast soundings late tonight/early Friday suggest that some potentially strong elevated updrafts are plausible. Small hail could occur, but the potential for 1-inch (or greater) hailstones should remain low. Read more

The first reverse osmosis filter arrived at the Pointe à la Hache water plant and should be operational in three days. The filter can remove salt from seawater and produce 500,000 gallons of potable water daily. WWL-TV (New Orleans, La.), Sept 28, 2023

Drought and fires in East Texas diminished hay production and supply. The lack of rain may also put a third cutting in question, and that hay is needed for feed during the fall and winter. Drought already has livestock producers feeding hay, which is expensive at $110 for a four-foot small bale. KLTV-TV ABC 7 (Tyler, Texas), Sept 22, 2023

Good yields of corn and soybeans could be found, but there were also disappointing yields. The lack of rain also resulted in herbicide carryover, and since corn and soybeans require different types of herbicides, drought can mean unwanted herbicide is leftover from the previous growing season. Sioux City Journal (Iowa), Sept 23, 2023

Soybean and corn yields in northeast Nebraska varied widely even within the same field after a summer of heat and drought stress. Fields of corn in Cedar County were cut for silage. Sioux City Journal (Iowa), Sept 23, 2023

Hendersonville officials asked residents to voluntarily curb their water use because the Mills River was lower than normal after a stretch of intense heat and lack of rain. A Stage I Water Shortage Advisory began Aug. 25. WLOS-TV ABC 13 Asheville (N.C.), Aug 24, 2023

The Mississippi Forestry Commission requested assistance from the South Central and Southeastern Wildland Fire Compacts, which includes all the southern states. Personnel and equipment are expected in coming days from Alabama, South Carolina and Tennessee. The Mississippi Emergency Management Agency, the U.S. Forest Service, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. National Park Service were also expected to help. Fire behavior has been explosive south of Interstate 20. WAPT Channel 16 Online (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 27, 2023

Some fruits and vegetables normally sold at produce stands were nowhere to be found in Jackson as produce perished in the fields. A farmer in Smith County lamented that she lost from 25% up to 60% of various crops this growing season. She was irrigating plants that survived, costing as much as 40% more in electricity. The ground was so hard and dry in Smith County that a farmer could not disk the ground, affecting fall planting. WLBT Online (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 27, 2023

Plaquemines Parish has been using bottled water since June as salt water in the Mississippi River has reduced water quality. The parish will soon get reverse osmosis water purification units to filter the saltwater to yield safe drinking water. The parish will soon have units at all five of its water treatment plants and intends to have three operational in early October. Units were also being sought for St. Bernard, Orleans and Jefferson Parishes. CNN (Atlanta, Ga.), Sept 27, 2023

No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 27 23:45:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2202 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 2202 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Areas affected...Southern Illinois and southern Indiana into Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272343Z - 280145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across southern Illinois are expected to intensify as they migrate east into the Ohio River Valley. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with the more intense cells, but thunderstorm coverage and mode remains uncertain. Trends will be monitored for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a few transient attempts at convective initiation have been noted across southern IL ahead of a subtle mid-level impulse and in the vicinity of a decaying surface low. Additional attempts at CI are expected over the coming hours as isentropic ascent increases over a warm front draped from southern IL into the OH River Valley. Temperatures across the warm sector - which is bound to the east by a residual outflow boundary - have begun falling with the onset of nocturnal cooling. MLCAPE values have been falling due to this cooling, but MUCAPE values should remain near 1000 J/kg as saturation of the surface-850 mb layer increases. Additionally, weak south/southeasterly flow across the region with 30-35 knot flow aloft is supporting somewhat elongated hodographs with effective bulk shear values near 30-35 knots. Some veering in the lowest 1 km is noted in regional VWPs, which is supporting effective SRH values around 100-150 J/kg. This environment is favorable for organized convection, including the potential for a few supercells. However, several modulating factors are noted. Deep-layer shear and storm motion vectors are forecast to be largely oriented along the warm front, which should favor a tendency for upscale growth. These factors may be offset by the isolated nature of storms given the relatively weak ascent over the region, so storm mode remains somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the noted nocturnal cooling may hinder the potential for surface-based convection, limiting the tornado potential and favor large hail and severe winds as the primary hazards. Trends will continue to be monitored for the needed for a watch issuance, which may be conditional on storm coverage and organization. ..Moore/Hart.. 09/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38548523 38288487 37848482 37288516 36898588 36758649 37068764 37328846 37548904 37848943 38288944 38688888 38758804 38768588 38548523 Read more

815
ABPZ20 KNHC 272319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 27 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwestern East Pacific:
A tropical wave continues to produce an area of showers and
thunderstorms well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Some development of this system remains
possible over the next day or two while it moves generally westward
at about 15 mph. By late Friday, upper-level winds are forecast to
become unfavorable for further development before the system moves
into the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Sep 27 22:34:01 UTC 2023.