Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 26 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwestern East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next few days while it moves generally westward at about 15
mph. By this weekend, upper-level winds are forecast to become
unfavorable for further development while the system moves into the
Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Historic drought in Louisiana has rats and mice seeking food and water in people’s homes. Since rodents carry more than 60 different diseases, residents should aim to find entry points and fix them if possible and take measures necessary to eliminate the pests. Louisiana Radio Network (Baton Rouge, La.), Sept 26, 2023

As saltwater intrusion continued to result in poorer quality water in Plaquemines Parish, grocery stores were working hard to keep bottles of water on store shelves, residents were getting rashes after showering, and people were frustrated with the water situation. A parish councilman stated that they were praying for rain to increase the flow of the Mississippi River. Gov. John Bel Edwards cautioned that more towns further up the Mississippi River, including Orleans, St. Bernard and Jefferson, may soon be affected by the salt water in mid-to-late October. In addition, millions of gallons of fresh water were being moved by barges to treatment facilities in impacted areas. Associated Press News (Baton Rouge, La.), Sept 25, 2023

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers intends to barge 36 million gallons of fresh water daily to local water treatment facilities to create a water mixture safe for treatment. The increased salinity from the saltwater intrusion is predicted to exceed the Environmental Protection Agency’s maximum standard of 250 mg/L in some areas, affecting public water systems and bringing the risk of corrosion to water distribution systems, machinery, and appliances, according to the governor’s office. Bottled water in bulk will also be delivered to the New Orleans area. CNN (Atlanta, Ga.), Sept 24, 2023

Apples grown at an orchard in Elgin were nice with few defects or other issues, but the apples were slightly smaller than usual. The pumpkin and squash crops failed because an irrigation system installed this summer was not operable soon enough to save those crops. KTTC-TV Rochester (Minn.), Sept 25, 2023

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 25 22:34:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 25 22:34:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z The large scale pattern will consist of a trough across the western US with downstream ridging across the eastern US. This will bring periods of breezy conditions across the southwest as multiple waves move through the longwave trough. Sundowner winds will be possible late D2 - Tuesday into D3 - Wednesday across the Santa Ynez Mountains into the Santa Barbra foothills in southern California with poor overnight recovery. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Due to the localized nature of this threat, no probabilities were included at this time. Toward the end of the extended period, the western trough will begin to dig southward and slowly progress eastward. The enhancement of the upper-level flow will bring potential for strengthening winds across the southwest and adjacent central high plains as a surface trough begins to develop in the lee of the Rockies. Periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather will be possible but confidence is low in where windy/dry conditions will overlap receptive fuels. As such, no probabilities have been included at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across southern parts of Texas, southwestern Louisiana, and the Florida Peninsula late this afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the FL Peninsula, and also across southern parts of Texas into southwest LA. See the previous discussion below for more information. Also see MCD 2196 for more information regarding the short-term threat near the upper TX coast. ..Dean.. 09/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023/ ...Southern Texas/southwest Louisiana... Multiple areas of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, generally in a weakening/diminishing trend through mid/late morning, exist across the region. Additional widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected to uptick in coverage and intensity later this afternoon, influenced by the southward-sagging front as well as several zones of outflow/differential heating. Multicellular storms will be common, with some potential for a few supercells particularly with westward extent across south-central/southwest Texas toward the Rio Grande, where deep-layer shear and buoyancy will be a bit stronger and where large hail potential is more apparent. This is aside from the potential for isolated severe wind gusts that will more broadly exist across the region. ...Central/southern Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region this afternoon. Localized strong/severe wind gusts are possible along with the possibility of marginally severe hail. This regime is the east of upper troughing over the central/northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a moist environment (PW 1.75-2.25-inches) existing across much of the Peninsula, with sea breeze boundaries focusing increasing diurnal thunderstorm development. While deep-layer winds will be weak, veering with height will contribute to 20-30 kt effective-shear magnitudes, supporting multicellular storm organization. Convection should diminish in coverage and strength after sunset as a combination of nocturnal cooling and increasingly prevalent outflow air stabilizes the boundary layer inland. ...Southeast MN/western WI/northeast IA/northwest IL... A few funnels may occur this afternoon across the region in relative proximity to the southeastward-moving upper low (-16C at 500mb), focused near the surface occluded front that will be located near the Mississippi River, and generally oriented parallel to it. There is where low-level buoyancy including 100-125 J/kg 0-3 km CAPE will be maximized with ambient vorticity. While a tornado cannot be entirely discounted, the potential for such currently appears to be very low, while funnels/briefly strong storms are otherwise plausible within the weak vertical shear environment (effective/0-6 km shear magnitudes less than 20 kt). Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Tuesday. Strong low- to mid-level winds will continue to overspread the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies through Tuesday. However, cooler temperatures and cloud cover behind an eastward-progressing cold front will modulate RH reductions for much of the region. Dry and breezy conditions will primarily be confined to immediately ahead of the front, but recent ensemble guidance depicts fairly low probability for sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds and sub-20% RH over areas with dry fuels. Sustained elevated fire weather conditions are most probable within the higher terrain of central ID to southwest MT, but ERCs across this region are near seasonally normal values. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The ground was so dry across southeast Alabama that peanut farmers were having trouble unearthing the peanuts because little rain has fallen recently, leaving the ground very hard. Rain would still be beneficial in maturing some of the peanuts. WDHN-TV ABC 18 Dothan (Ala.), Sept 23, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251753
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 25 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Lake Marburg in Codorus State Park has receded to reveal an old lake bridge. Hikers noticed cinder blocks and concrete recently. The bridge was part of the old village of Marburg, before it was abandoned to make way for the lake. FOX 43 (Harrisburg, Pa.), Sept 22, 2023

The owner of a pecan orchard in Seguin was inspecting his trees and was worried after finding 59 mature trees that died after a hot, dry summer. Thirty-eight trees younger than five years old have also died. The orchard owner has some limited irrigation capability, but the trees needed more water and relief from the intense heat. KXAN Online (Austin, Texas), Sept 25, 2023

The Tillamook Board of County Commissioners declared a local state of emergency due to drought on September 20. The need for such a declaration is highly unusual because the county typically receives more than 100 inches of rain annually. Some wells have run dry, and the Office of Resiliency and Emergency Management was delivering water. Because the area is usually flush with water, there were no companies operating potable water tanker trucks on the north coast, and few statewide. Tillamook Headlight Herald (Ore.), Sept 25, 2023

The mayor of New Orleans signed an emergency declaration over saltwater intrusion in the Mississippi River that is affecting water supplies in Plaquemines Parish. Weather forecasts suggest that river volume will drop to historic lows in the next several weeks. An underwater sill was constructed to slow movement of the saltwater in July, but the barrier was overtopped, so additional work to expand the sill will be untaken to keep the saltwater downriver. It is thought that saltwater intrusion can be delayed by roughly 10 to 15 days. ABC News, Sept 23, 2023

Intense heat and continuing drought in Louisiana were expected to lead to estimated losses of $135 million to $290 million in the beef cattle sector, per economists from LSU AgCenter. Limited hay supplies forced ranchers to sell cattle. Some cattle died from heat, but the biggest losses come from calves being weaned earlier than normal and cattle sales. Poor hay production is estimated to cost cattle producers $62 million to $108 million. Producers have sold from 10% to 30% of their permanent herds. AgFax (Brandon, Miss.), Aug 18, 2023

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 24 22:30:18 UTC 2023.