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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire concerns will remain low through the extended period. The upper-level pattern will remain fairly persistent through much of the period, with troughing across the western US and ridging across the central/eastern US. The increased pressure gradient and flow aloft between these two features will keep winds breezy across the Southwest into Great Basin and across the Central Plains. Cooler temperatures, fuels near seasonal averages, and potential for precipitation will help temper fire spread potential across much of the Southwest and Great Basin. Little to no rainfall is forecast across portions of southern Arizona and western New Mexico. Periods of Elevated fire weather may be possible. Fuels within this region are near seasonal normal but multiple days of windy/dry conditions will likely lead to drying fuels. This trend will be monitored with potential for highlights in the coming days. Across the Central Plains, westerly flow across the Rockies will support strengthening lee troughing and periods of increased south to southwesterly flow across the central high plains. Relative humidity is forecast to remain above Critical thresholds, though spotty Elevated to near Critical conditions will be possible on D3 - Friday and D4 - Saturday across western Kansas/eastern Colorado. Late in the period by D8 - Wednesday, the western trough may eject eastward into the Plains. Model spread in where the surface low will develop leads to low confidence in where any windy/dry conditions will overlap. ..Thornton.. 09/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon into tonight, and pose some risk for severe weather. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley... Modest destabilization is still anticipated in the wake of early showers and thunderstorms (and associated cloud cover) ahead of a weakly convergence frontal zone. Thunderstorms are still expected along this frontal zone later this evening. Cold mid-level temperatures will foster moderate buoyancy amid generally weak to moderate vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, but a supercell or two is possible as well. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023/ ...Lower Ohio Valley... An upper low over the Midwest (temperatures still around -16C at 500 mb) will drift eastward over northern portions of Illinois/Indiana and southern Lake Michigan through tonight, with moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies influencing the lower Ohio Valley into Tennessee Valley. Moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg, is expected this afternoon near/south of the synoptic front and weak surface low, particularly to the west of decaying thunderstorm clusters and cloud cover that persist late this morning near/south of the Ohio River. Renewed thunderstorm development/intensification may occur across east-central Kentucky Bluegrass into the Cumberland Plateau vicinity by mid-afternoon. A couple of stronger cells may be accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and localized damaging wind gusts, before the storms spread into a more stable environment toward the mountains. Farther west/northwest is where somewhat more substantive boundary-layer destabilization is expected across southern portions of Illinois/Indiana into west-central Kentucky, with storms expected to increase by late afternoon and early evening. A few transient supercells could occur, but multicellular clusters capable of hail/wind are otherwise probable, potentially including some semi-organized clusters this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon into tonight, and pose some risk for severe weather. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley... Modest destabilization is still anticipated in the wake of early showers and thunderstorms (and associated cloud cover) ahead of a weakly convergence frontal zone. Thunderstorms are still expected along this frontal zone later this evening. Cold mid-level temperatures will foster moderate buoyancy amid generally weak to moderate vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, but a supercell or two is possible as well. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023/ ...Lower Ohio Valley... An upper low over the Midwest (temperatures still around -16C at 500 mb) will drift eastward over northern portions of Illinois/Indiana and southern Lake Michigan through tonight, with moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies influencing the lower Ohio Valley into Tennessee Valley. Moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg, is expected this afternoon near/south of the synoptic front and weak surface low, particularly to the west of decaying thunderstorm clusters and cloud cover that persist late this morning near/south of the Ohio River. Renewed thunderstorm development/intensification may occur across east-central Kentucky Bluegrass into the Cumberland Plateau vicinity by mid-afternoon. A couple of stronger cells may be accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and localized damaging wind gusts, before the storms spread into a more stable environment toward the mountains. Farther west/northwest is where somewhat more substantive boundary-layer destabilization is expected across southern portions of Illinois/Indiana into west-central Kentucky, with storms expected to increase by late afternoon and early evening. A few transient supercells could occur, but multicellular clusters capable of hail/wind are otherwise probable, potentially including some semi-organized clusters this evening. Read more

Cascade Water Alliance has encouraged water conservation like Seattle Public Utilities and asked customers to use less water amid a drought. Seattle Public Utilities’ reservoirs hold less than 30% of their capacity as watersheds that typically feed the reservoirs only received 7 to 8 inches, whereas they usually receive up to 26 inches of rain between May and September. The Seattle Times (Wash.), Sept 27, 2023

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An Elevated delineation was added across western Kansas/eastern Colorado in anticipation of increasing southerly flow amid dry conditions. HREF probabilities indicate 70-90 percent of meeting Elevated criteria across the Kansas/Colorado border. Coordination with local partners indicates fuels within this region have experienced drying due to rainfall deficits over the last few weeks. See previous discussion for more information concerning Elevated concerns across southern WY and northwest CO. ..Thornton.. 09/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday across portions of southern WY and into far northwest CO. The progression of the upper wave over the Pacific Northwest will strengthen lee troughing over the northern and central High Plains over the next 48 hours. As a result, low to mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen across the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners regions. With a dry air mass expected to already be in place by Thursday afternoon, elevated fire weather conditions are expected from northern AZ into UT, western CO, and southern WY. However, fuels across most of this region are not receptive outside of southern WY and adjacent portions of northwest CO where 30-day rainfall deficits and ERC values near the 80th percentile are noted in recent analyses. ...Western Kansas... Drier, windier deterministic solutions hint at the potential for elevated conditions across western KS Thursday afternoon. Fuels over northwest KS appear to be receptive after little rainfall over the past 30 days, and may support a fire concern. However, confidence in substantial overlap of these dry fuels with sustained elevated fire weather conditions remains limited due to spread in ensemble guidance and a noted dry bias in the upstream air mass over the southern High Plains noted in some model runs. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An Elevated delineation was added across western Kansas/eastern Colorado in anticipation of increasing southerly flow amid dry conditions. HREF probabilities indicate 70-90 percent of meeting Elevated criteria across the Kansas/Colorado border. Coordination with local partners indicates fuels within this region have experienced drying due to rainfall deficits over the last few weeks. See previous discussion for more information concerning Elevated concerns across southern WY and northwest CO. ..Thornton.. 09/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday across portions of southern WY and into far northwest CO. The progression of the upper wave over the Pacific Northwest will strengthen lee troughing over the northern and central High Plains over the next 48 hours. As a result, low to mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen across the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners regions. With a dry air mass expected to already be in place by Thursday afternoon, elevated fire weather conditions are expected from northern AZ into UT, western CO, and southern WY. However, fuels across most of this region are not receptive outside of southern WY and adjacent portions of northwest CO where 30-day rainfall deficits and ERC values near the 80th percentile are noted in recent analyses. ...Western Kansas... Drier, windier deterministic solutions hint at the potential for elevated conditions across western KS Thursday afternoon. Fuels over northwest KS appear to be receptive after little rainfall over the past 30 days, and may support a fire concern. However, confidence in substantial overlap of these dry fuels with sustained elevated fire weather conditions remains limited due to spread in ensemble guidance and a noted dry bias in the upstream air mass over the southern High Plains noted in some model runs. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The fire marshals for the Murfreesboro Fire Rescue Department and Rutherford County Fire & Rescue Department issued a mandatory open burning ban for the city limits of Murfreesboro and Rutherford County due to a dry spell. The joint burn ban took effect immediately and will remain until conditions improve. WGNS 1450-AM & 101.9 100.5-FM (Murfreesboro, Tenn.), Sept 27, 2023

The Alabama Department of Conservation and Natural Resources announced more fire precautions for all parks due to the continued drought. Park visitors and overnight guests were asked to be extra careful with campfires and barbecue grills as the fire danger has risen. Campfires are not permitted outside of designated day-use picnic areas, campgrounds or developed recreational areas, but barbecue grills and gas-fueled stoves are allowed. The fire precautions were in addition to the Sept. 22 statewide fire alert. WHNT 19 News (Huntsville, Ala.), Sept 27, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271711
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 27 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwestern East Pacific:
A tropical wave is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms
well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some development of this system is possible over the
next couple of days while it moves generally westward at about 15
mph. By this weekend, upper-level winds are forecast to become
unfavorable for further development before the system moves into
the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

The lack of rain this summer frustrated produce growers who usually bring their produce to sell at a community market in Biloxi. The heat, combined with the absence of rain, wiped out the crops, commented one farmer. Flowers have not been blooming amid the drought, which has been a problem for the bees and honey production. Of the 200 Christmas trees planted this year, 75 were lost for lack of water. An Alabama farmer noted that the dry weather kept them from planting the greens at the usual time, but that the crop was emerging. A late hard freeze also damaged produce even before the heat and drought struck. WLOX TV 13 (Biloxi, Miss.), Sept 26, 2023

In the Minnesota and Iowa area east of Interstate 35, corn yields varied from 40 bushels per acre to 230 in the same field. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), Sept 22, 2023

Drought devastated crops in southern Mississippi this summer. Livestock farmers lacking hay sold cattle or fed their animals hay that should be kept for the winter months. While cattle usually begin eating hay in November, some were being fed hay in August this year. A cotton grower in Copiah County reported that he lost about $100,000 due to a poor cotton crop. Mississippi Today (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 26, 2023

President Biden approved the emergency declaration requested by Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards for four parishes: Plaquemines, St. Bernard, Jefferson and Orleans. The Mississippi River has saltwater intrusion affecting or about to affect water supplies in those parishes. CNN (Atlanta, Ga.), Sept 27, 2023 Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards requested a federal emergency declaration for Jefferson, Orleans, Plaquemines and St. Bernard parishes, which have already been affected or were expected to be affected by salt water intrustion over the next month. CNN (Atlanta, Ga.), Sept 24, 2023

Wisconsin mussels were dying in large numbers as rivers dropped to near historic lows amid ongoing drought in the Badger State. Nearly half of the state’s 50 species of mussels are threatened, vulnerable or endangered. The public was asked to walk along rivers and creeks and rescue stranded mussels by tossing them into deeper water. WiscNews (Madison, Wis.), Sept 22, 2023 Thousands of mussels were stranded along the Wisconsin River as drought reduced the river's flow. Some mussels have already died, but efforts were underway to move the mussels into deeper water. WKOW-TV 27 ABC (Madison, Wis.), Sept 19, 2023

No watches are valid as of Tue Sep 26 22:23:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z The large scale pattern will consist of a trough across the western US with downstream ridging across the eastern US. This will bring periods of breezy/dry conditions across the southwest as multiple waves move through the longwave trough. Cooler temperatures and precipitation will be possible across the Great Basin into the Central Rockies, limiting the overall fire threat amid fuels near seasonal normal. Areas across central/southern Arizona into New Mexico will likely remain dry but fuels within this region are also near seasonal normal. The western trough will begin to dig southward and slowly progress eastward through the weekend. The enhancement of the upper-level flow will bring potential for strengthening winds across the southwest and adjacent central high plains as a surface trough begins to develop in the lee of the Rockies. Periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather from D3 - Thursday through D6 - Sunday will be possible but confidence is low in where windy/dry conditions will overlap receptive fuels. Recent analysis indicates that the driest fuels are located across western/central Kansas into far eastern Colorado, where less recent rainfall has been observed and fine fuels will potentially support fire spread. Elsewhere, recent rainfall has left fuels at or below seasonal normal for dryness. No probabilities have been included at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2201 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO FAR WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2201 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Areas affected...Central New Mexico to far west Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262153Z - 270000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing across central New Mexico to far west Texas will pose an isolated large hail and severe wind risk through the early evening hours. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been well underway across NM to far west TX, but recent GOES IR imagery and lightning trends have shown an uptick in intensity in a few cells. While not high-caliber by most measures, the environment across the region remains favorable for organized convection with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear values near 20 knots. This may support a few organized cells capable of posing a large hail risk. Dewpoint depressions across the region on the order of 40-50 F indicate that the boundary layer is fairly well mixed, and this is supported by 0-3 km lapse rates around 8-9 C/km per latest mesoanalysis estimates. This low-level thermodynamic environment, combined with PWAT values below 1 inch, is conducive for downbursts and perhaps outrunning outflows that may lead to thunderstorm clustering. Both of these scenarios would pose a risk for strong to severe gusts through the early evening hours prior to sunset and on the onset of nocturnal cooling. However, given the overall marginal convective environment, watch issuance is not expected. ..Moore/Thompson.. 09/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 31650663 32360702 33580722 34160688 34670603 35090471 35450313 35470262 35290194 35040178 34620188 33310240 32470262 31650310 30750362 30390394 30120432 30040469 30330507 30460516 30640531 31140613 31450647 31650663 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MS AND UPPER OH VALLEY...NM AND WEST TX...AND NORTHERN FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Midwest, across parts of New Mexico into west Texas, and possibly northern Florida. ...20Z Update... ...Mid MS Valley into the Lower OH Valley... Visible satellite imagery shows a cumulus field from IA across IL into IN, with some recent building cumulus across eastern MO as well. All of this is occurring in the vicinity of an upper low centered over eastern IA. MCD #2198 was recently issued addressing the severe potential in this area. As mentioned in that discussion, cold mid-level temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates, and resulting modest buoyancy, in the presence of low-level vorticity may result in isolated instances of hail and perhaps a brief tornado this afternoon. An associated occluded surface low is centered below this upper low, linked to another surface low over northeast IL by a weak surface trough. A cold front extends from arc second low southward into southern IL and then back westward into west-central MO. As mentioned in MCD #2200, pulse-cells and multicell storms have been increasing in coverage and intensity along this boundary. A couple instances of hail are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon. Building cumulus across far southwest MO suggests thunderstorm initiation will occur in that region as well, and marginal hail and wind probabilities were extended accordingly. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms capable of hail and damaging gusts remain possible across NM and West TX. A strong storm or two is also possible across northern FL, as mentioned in MCD #2199. ..Mosier.. 09/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023/ ...Midwest including Illinois/Indiana/Missouri... An upper low (-16C at 500mb) centered over eastern Iowa this morning will continue to drift east-southeastward toward and across northern Illinois through tonight. A semi-moist environment, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s F, will diurnally persist near/northeast of a weak surface low and occluded front/wind shift that will generally extend southeastward from the surface low. While deep-layer wind profiles will generally be weak (15-20 kt effective shear), ample CAPE with respect to low-topped storms will support the possibility of hail with the stronger pulse-type cells. Funnels appear quite plausible across areas including eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and northern/central Illinois, and sufficient low-level CAPE/ambient vorticity near the boundary could yield a brief tornado risk. Farther to the southwest, there is some potential that some strong to severe thunderstorms could develop near the front across central/eastern Missouri late this afternoon into tonight. MLCAPE could reach 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE near/south of the front, and wind profiles will be moderately strong, influenced by increasingly strong cyclonically curved westerlies in the base of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough. Thermodynamic/kinematic profiles could conditionally support some high-based supercells aside from multicellular clusters if/where storms develop. While near-frontal convergence will be modest, and the likelihood and extent of sustained deep convection may remain limited, there will be additional late night opportunities for convective development as warm advection/moisture transport increase, and some of these storms could also be strong. This region will be closely reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a potential reintroduction of severe probabilities. ...New Mexico/West Texas... Within the weaker southern branch of westerlies, a weak shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the Four Corners vicinity through tonight. As it does, associated forcing for ascent should augment convective development, particularly storms initiating in response to heating across the mountains of southern/central New Mexico by early afternoon. It appears that moisture across this region will be sufficient to support initially sizable CAPE, beneath modest westerly to northwesterly flow, at least in upper levels. Stronger storms may become capable of producing marginally severe hail, then a few strong to severe gusts while propagating southeastward off the higher terrain into an unstable and more deeply mixed boundary-layer through early this evening. ...Florida Peninsula... Low severe probabilities have been introduced for the northern Florida Peninsula where storms are expected to increase/develop east-northeastward across the region, all while deep-layer shear modestly increases. High precipitable water content will support heavy precipitation loading and some potential for locally strong surface gusts. ...Coastal Oregon... Forcing for ascent within the exit region of a strong jet streak (including 70-90 kt around 500 mb) may contribute to an organized, vigorous pre-frontal convective band, associated with the surface cyclone approaching the Pacific Northwest. However, with the cyclone forecast to occlude prior to reaching the coast near/after 27/06Z, appreciable inland boundary-layer destabilization appears unlikely, and stable near-surface lapse rates may tend to mitigate the potential for downward mixing of severe surface gusts as the convective line progresses inland. Read more

Canyon Lake continued to drop below its lowest point in recorded history as drought persisted in Texas. The low level of the lake exposed caves that were previously underwater, but were now accessible by boat. Divers also found remnants of two towns, Hancock and Crane’s Mill, that were hidden by the lake’s waters when Canyon Lake was formed. KSAT 12 Online (San Antonio, Texas), Sept 26, 2023

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential is forecast to remain low for Wednesday. The upper low currently moving into the Pacific Northwest will continue to push eastward into the northern Rockies through Wednesday. Ahead of an attendant cold front, breezy southwesterly winds will advect a dry air mass (currently over the western Great Basin) into UT and WY. Latest ensemble and deterministic guidance show a reasonably consistent signal for areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds with RH values generally in the upper teens to 20s. Consequently, patchy elevated fire weather conditions are probable from central UT to central WY Wednesday afternoon. Across southern CA, Sundowner winds across Santa Barbara county may be strong at the start of the forecast period and persist through much of the day. Downslope warming/drying should produce localized pockets of reduced RH into the low 20s. For both regions, however, recent analyses suggest fuels are currently not receptive, which should modulate the overall fire weather concern. Fuel trends will be monitored across southern CA where locally dry/windy conditions may persist for 12+ hours and support drying of fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more