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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Across the Pacific Northwest into Great Basin and the Northern Rockies, a trough and attendant cold front will bring widespread rainfall across much of the region with cooler temperatures and increasing relative humidity D2 - Monday into D3 - Tuesday. This will temper the fire weather concerns across these regions in the coming days. Pockets of dry and breezy conditions will remain possible for D3 - Tuesday through D5 - Wednesday across the desert southwest, however fuels are largely not receptive to fire spread due to recent rainfall. The general pattern through the end of the week will continue to include troughing across the western US with building high pressure across the central and eastern US. Long range models disagree on the exact amplitude of the western trough, with some indications of a more progressive open wave or slow moving cut off low. Ensembles guidance from the EPS and GEFS lean towards deeper trough and potential cut off low scenario. In either scenario, increasing flow across the western US will likely bring corridors of at least Elevated fire weather concerns. Uncertainty on exactly where dry/breezy conditions will overlap receptive fuels and potential for wetting rainfall lead to low confidence in including any probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0695 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0695 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 695 SEVERE TSTM TX 242150Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 695 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North and central Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 450 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form this afternoon into this evening from north into central Texas, and storms will subsequently move southeastward into early tonight. Supercells with isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter will be possible across north Texas along with damaging outflow gusts up to 70 mph. Damaging winds will also be possible into central Texas with storm clusters. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Dallas TX to 40 miles west of Austin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Thompson Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2023 20:39:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2023 21:29:21 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 24 2023 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 242038 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 24 2023 Moderate (15-20 kt) deep-layer shear and an enveloping dry and stable low- to mid-level atmosphere have taken their toll on the depression. The cyclone has lacked organized deep convection since last night and primarily consists of a swirl of low cloud elements, with deep convection well south of the surface center associated with the inter-tropical convergence zone. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on a Dvorak CI number of 2.0 from TAFB. Despite warm waters ahead of the depression's track, the negative environmental contributions mentioned above should cause the depression to weaken further while impeding deep convective redevelopment. Subsequently, the cyclone is expected to degenerate to a remnant low later tonight and open into a trough in 4 days, or less. The exposed surface circulation's initial motion is estimated to be westward or 270/13 kt. The forecast track philosophy is unchanged. Mid-tropospheric high pressure extending from the Baja California peninsula to the western tropical East Pacific should steer the cyclone on a generally westward track through Monday. A turn toward the west-southwest is expected on Tuesday within the low-level tradewind steering flow through dissipation. The official forecast is an update of the previous one and is based on the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 15.2N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 15.3N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1800Z 15.1N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0600Z 14.7N 132.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 13.8N 135.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0600Z 12.7N 139.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z 11.5N 142.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 242037 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142023 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 24 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 242037 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 24 2023 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 125.5W ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 125.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue at a little faster forward speed through Monday. A turn toward the west-southwest is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a remnant low tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM HST Sun Sep 24 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 15.2, -125.5 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 242037 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142023 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 125.5W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 125.5W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 124.9W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.3N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.1N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.7N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.8N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.7N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 11.5N 142.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 125.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ARKLATEX/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail and damaging gusts are expected later this afternoon and evening across central/northeast Texas and possibly far southern Oklahoma and the Arklatex vicinity. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Supercell development remains possible later this afternoon into this evening from central TX into the ArkLaTex region, with some clustering of storms possible tonight. Very large hail and severe/damaging gusts will be the primary threats. The greatest relative threat may become centered over northeast TX, to the east of a surface low. Some enhancement to low-level shear/SRH in this region may support the threat of a tornado as well. See the previous discussion below and MCD 2192 for more information. ..Dean.. 09/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023/ ...Central Texas to southeast Oklahoma/ArkLaTex... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, potentially very large (2+ inch in some cases), and damaging winds are expected mainly late this afternoon and much of the evening especially across parts of central to north/northeast Texas, and possibly nearby parts of southern Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. Water vapor imagery continues to feature an eastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max over the southern High Plains late this morning, with these features expected to reach the region (north Texas/ArkLaTex) by late afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a northeast/southwest-oriented front will settle southward across the region, with augmenting outflow/differential heating influences across the ArkLaTex. Ample warm-sector heating is anticipated under cloud-free skies early today, where plentiful upper 60s to middle 70s F surface dewpoints currently reside. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development is expected as early as late afternoon near the front/surface low and possibly also influenced by aforementioned residual outflow/differential heating and pre-frontal convergence. Upwards of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE in the presence of moderate-caliber effective shear (generally 30-40 kt effective) will support some initial supercells cable of large hail, with some potentially significant in excess of 2 inches in diameter. A low-probability tornado risk may also exist in areas such as northeast Texas, where 1-3 km AGL winds will be a bit stronger to the east of the surface wave across north Texas. Storms are likely to cluster/grow upscale across the warm sector this evening, with damaging winds and some hail risk continuing, while other storms may develop tonight as far north as far southern Oklahoma/north Texas and ArkLaTex as a low-level jet and related warm advection increase. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON...SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... A couple of changes were made to the Day 2 Fire Weather outlook in line with trends and coordination with local partners. The Elevated region was expanded to include more of southwestern Idaho and east-central Oregon. A Critical region was introduced across southeastern Oregon into far northeastern California, northwestern Nevada, southwestern Idaho. Recent trends indicate a slower progression of the cold front on Monday, which will delay higher humidity and precipitation into areas east of the Cascade Range. Strong winds and relative humidity reductions into the single digits to teens continues to appear likely. Information from local partners indicates fuels are receptive to spread within these regions. Fuels will be prone to further drying with more extended Critical meteorological conditions now expected on Monday. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely Monday afternoon across portions of the northwestern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Short- to medium-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the eastward progression of the strong low over the northeast Pacific towards the Pacific Northwest over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, stronger low- to mid-level winds will overspread northern CA into the western Great Basin, with most precipitation remaining confined to the windward side of the northern Sierra Nevada and Cascades. The combination of antecedent dry conditions, with some downslope warming/drying within the south/southwesterly flow regime, should support widespread RH reductions into the teens and low 20s. Drier and windier solutions - most notably the 00z HRRR - hint at RH reductions into the single digits with sustained winds closer to 30 mph, although it is somewhat unclear how the HRRR's recent dry bias across the Great Basin is influencing Monday's forecast. Regardless, a strong consensus among ensemble members for elevated to critical conditions gives high confidence in the meteorological forecast. Fuels across the region are currently not overly receptive with seasonally normal ERCs; however, some drying/curing of fine fuels is likely by Monday given the warm, dry, and breezy conditions expected over the next 24 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241748
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 24 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fourteen-E, located a little over 1000 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

WW 0693 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0693 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 693 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 232235Z - 240500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 693 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 535 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 535 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected this evening across southeast Kansas and ongoing storms will move east-southeastward toward southwest Missouri. The storm environment initially favors supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail near 2.5 inches in diameter, and possibly a tornado or two. Some clustering/upscale growth will lead to an increase in the potential for damaging gusts to 70 mph by late evening/early tonight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north northeast of Joplin MO to 50 miles south of Chanute KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 690...WW 691...WW 692... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 31020. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0692 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 692 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..09/23/23 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 692 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-021-027-035-037-041-061-063-071-077-079-081-083-087-091- 097-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-125-131-133-135- 143-145-147-232340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE CLEVELAND CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE HASKELL HUGHES KAY LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 692 SEVERE TSTM OK 232105Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 692 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initially, an isolated supercell may continue to pose a large hail risk across eastern Oklahoma over the next few hours, while additional and more numerous storms will likely develop by early evening across northern/central Oklahoma. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles north northeast of Bartlesville OK to 25 miles west of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 690...WW 691... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0691 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 691 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..09/23/23 ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 691 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-009-013-015-017-023-025-027-029-033-037-049-063-067-069- 073-075-077-079-081-083-091-099-109-121-123-125-127-147-151-153- 157-161-169-171-181-187-189-195-197-232340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR AUDUBON BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUTLER CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW DALLAS EMMET FLOYD FRANKLIN GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE HAMILTON HANCOCK HARDIN HUMBOLDT JASPER KOSSUTH MADISON MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS POLK POWESHIEK SAC STORY TAMA WARREN WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WORTH WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 691 SEVERE TSTM IA 231835Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 691 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Iowa * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initially, a cluster of storms across north-central Iowa may produce large hail and/or locally damaging winds. Additional storms are expected to across the region later this afternoon into evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Mason City IA to 25 miles south of Des Moines IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 690... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0690 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 690 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..09/23/23 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 690 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC091-103-107-121-209-232340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC013-015-025-033-037-041-047-053-061-083-089-095-101-107-115- 117-141-159-165-177-185-195-232340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES BENTON CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CHARITON CLAY COOPER DAVIESS HENRY HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LINN LIVINGSTON MORGAN PETTIS PLATTE RAY ST. CLAIR SALINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 690 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 231800Z - 240200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 690 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas Western and Central Missouri * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and locally damaging winds this afternoon, with a secondary round of storms expected across the region later this afternoon into evening, which will likely include additional storm development to the west of the early afternoon storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles northeast of Chillicothe MO to 55 miles south southeast of Olathe KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more