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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Progressive mid-level flow is expected to persist across the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. Deep troughing over the East Coast will continue to bring wet and mild weather to the Eastern US before it gradually weakens and moves away by midweek. As the trough departs, high pressure will develop in its wake, keeping temperatures cool and winds light. Transient ridging and surface high pressure are also expected over the central US through the work week, as a second trough/cut off low approach the West Coast. Steady onshore flow of Pacific moisture will allow for widespread precipitation and mild temperatures over the western US into the weekend. There after, western US troughing will gradually shift eastward while ridging and high pressure intensify over the East. Mild temperatures and unsettled weather appear likely for the western and central US through the end of the forecast period. With widespread precipitation, relatively weak surface winds and mild temperatures, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Progressive mid-level flow is expected to persist across the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. Deep troughing over the East Coast will continue to bring wet and mild weather to the Eastern US before it gradually weakens and moves away by midweek. As the trough departs, high pressure will develop in its wake, keeping temperatures cool and winds light. Transient ridging and surface high pressure are also expected over the central US through the work week, as a second trough/cut off low approach the West Coast. Steady onshore flow of Pacific moisture will allow for widespread precipitation and mild temperatures over the western US into the weekend. There after, western US troughing will gradually shift eastward while ridging and high pressure intensify over the East. Mild temperatures and unsettled weather appear likely for the western and central US through the end of the forecast period. With widespread precipitation, relatively weak surface winds and mild temperatures, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Progressive mid-level flow is expected to persist across the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. Deep troughing over the East Coast will continue to bring wet and mild weather to the Eastern US before it gradually weakens and moves away by midweek. As the trough departs, high pressure will develop in its wake, keeping temperatures cool and winds light. Transient ridging and surface high pressure are also expected over the central US through the work week, as a second trough/cut off low approach the West Coast. Steady onshore flow of Pacific moisture will allow for widespread precipitation and mild temperatures over the western US into the weekend. There after, western US troughing will gradually shift eastward while ridging and high pressure intensify over the East. Mild temperatures and unsettled weather appear likely for the western and central US through the end of the forecast period. With widespread precipitation, relatively weak surface winds and mild temperatures, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Progressive mid-level flow is expected to persist across the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. Deep troughing over the East Coast will continue to bring wet and mild weather to the Eastern US before it gradually weakens and moves away by midweek. As the trough departs, high pressure will develop in its wake, keeping temperatures cool and winds light. Transient ridging and surface high pressure are also expected over the central US through the work week, as a second trough/cut off low approach the West Coast. Steady onshore flow of Pacific moisture will allow for widespread precipitation and mild temperatures over the western US into the weekend. There after, western US troughing will gradually shift eastward while ridging and high pressure intensify over the East. Mild temperatures and unsettled weather appear likely for the western and central US through the end of the forecast period. With widespread precipitation, relatively weak surface winds and mild temperatures, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Progressive mid-level flow is expected to persist across the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. Deep troughing over the East Coast will continue to bring wet and mild weather to the Eastern US before it gradually weakens and moves away by midweek. As the trough departs, high pressure will develop in its wake, keeping temperatures cool and winds light. Transient ridging and surface high pressure are also expected over the central US through the work week, as a second trough/cut off low approach the West Coast. Steady onshore flow of Pacific moisture will allow for widespread precipitation and mild temperatures over the western US into the weekend. There after, western US troughing will gradually shift eastward while ridging and high pressure intensify over the East. Mild temperatures and unsettled weather appear likely for the western and central US through the end of the forecast period. With widespread precipitation, relatively weak surface winds and mild temperatures, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Progressive mid-level flow is expected to persist across the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. Deep troughing over the East Coast will continue to bring wet and mild weather to the Eastern US before it gradually weakens and moves away by midweek. As the trough departs, high pressure will develop in its wake, keeping temperatures cool and winds light. Transient ridging and surface high pressure are also expected over the central US through the work week, as a second trough/cut off low approach the West Coast. Steady onshore flow of Pacific moisture will allow for widespread precipitation and mild temperatures over the western US into the weekend. There after, western US troughing will gradually shift eastward while ridging and high pressure intensify over the East. Mild temperatures and unsettled weather appear likely for the western and central US through the end of the forecast period. With widespread precipitation, relatively weak surface winds and mild temperatures, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0722 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 722 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..12/17/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 722 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-031-047-049-055-061-095-103-107-129-133-137-141-177- 187-172240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN HYDE JONES LENOIR NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER TYRRELL WASHINGTON AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-170-172-174-176-178-230- 231-250-252-254-270-272-274-172240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS Read more

WW 0722 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 722 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..12/17/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 722 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-031-047-049-055-061-095-103-107-129-133-137-141-177- 187-172240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN HYDE JONES LENOIR NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER TYRRELL WASHINGTON AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-170-172-174-176-178-230- 231-250-252-254-270-272-274-172240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS Read more

WW 0722 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 722 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..12/17/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 722 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-031-047-049-055-061-095-103-107-129-133-137-141-177- 187-172240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN HYDE JONES LENOIR NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER TYRRELL WASHINGTON AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-170-172-174-176-178-230- 231-250-252-254-270-272-274-172240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS Read more

WW 722 TORNADO NC CW 171850Z - 180100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 722 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of eastern North Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 800 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Potential for locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will gradually increase this afternoon and into this evening, as locally intense thunderstorms shift north-northeastward across the North Carolina Coastal Plain and Outer Banks area. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 110 miles northeast of New Bern NC to 30 miles south of Wilmington NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 18040. ...Goss Read more

WW 0722 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 722 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..12/17/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 722 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-031-047-049-055-061-095-103-107-129-133-137-141-177- 187-172140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN HYDE JONES LENOIR NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER TYRRELL WASHINGTON AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-170-172-174-176-178-230- 231-250-252-254-270-272-274-172140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS Read more

MD 2333 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2333 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Areas affected...parts of the coastal Carolinas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171706Z - 172100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A conditional risk of brief tornadoes or damaging gusts is forecast today, from the South Carolina upper coast toward coastal North Carolina. The risk is conditional on air mass recovery, and a watch may be considered. DISCUSSION...A surface low will deepen as it moves northeastward off the SC Coast today, along an existing baroclinic zone which is currently well offshore. Surface observations show cool air over land with gusty northeast winds, and this will likely maintain a decoupled boundary layer which should mitigate tornado and damaging gust potential in the near term. Later today, gradual warming is expected as the warm front shifts north along the coast. As winds veer to east and then southeast, a warmer and more unstable air mass will then support a risk of brief tornadoes and damaging gusts, as shear will remain strong along the warm front. Observational trends will continue to be monitored closely, along with satellite imagery, to ascertain when a potential watch may be needed later today. ..Jewell/Goss.. 12/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS... LAT...LON 33227967 33697946 34387880 34757814 34987730 34907648 34607644 34627687 34437741 34157776 33787792 33847815 33767866 33447904 33227909 32987932 32807958 32907973 33227967 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...20z Update... A damaging wind and tornado risk will continue into the evening across the North Carolina coast and Outer Banks. A few stronger cells interacting with the baroclinic zone along the coast have shown rotation, with a possible tornado observed via radar earlier this afternoon near the SC/NC border. While cloud cover, widespread precipitation and poor lapse rates will limit instability, strong low-level vertical wind profiles will remain favorable for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. The only change with the 20z update was to trim severe probabilities from most of South Carolina in the wake of the surface low and primary surface trough. General thunder was also removed on the western periphery of the outlook area, mainly from GA and upstate SC. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...20z Update... A damaging wind and tornado risk will continue into the evening across the North Carolina coast and Outer Banks. A few stronger cells interacting with the baroclinic zone along the coast have shown rotation, with a possible tornado observed via radar earlier this afternoon near the SC/NC border. While cloud cover, widespread precipitation and poor lapse rates will limit instability, strong low-level vertical wind profiles will remain favorable for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. The only change with the 20z update was to trim severe probabilities from most of South Carolina in the wake of the surface low and primary surface trough. General thunder was also removed on the western periphery of the outlook area, mainly from GA and upstate SC. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...20z Update... A damaging wind and tornado risk will continue into the evening across the North Carolina coast and Outer Banks. A few stronger cells interacting with the baroclinic zone along the coast have shown rotation, with a possible tornado observed via radar earlier this afternoon near the SC/NC border. While cloud cover, widespread precipitation and poor lapse rates will limit instability, strong low-level vertical wind profiles will remain favorable for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. The only change with the 20z update was to trim severe probabilities from most of South Carolina in the wake of the surface low and primary surface trough. General thunder was also removed on the western periphery of the outlook area, mainly from GA and upstate SC. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...20z Update... A damaging wind and tornado risk will continue into the evening across the North Carolina coast and Outer Banks. A few stronger cells interacting with the baroclinic zone along the coast have shown rotation, with a possible tornado observed via radar earlier this afternoon near the SC/NC border. While cloud cover, widespread precipitation and poor lapse rates will limit instability, strong low-level vertical wind profiles will remain favorable for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. The only change with the 20z update was to trim severe probabilities from most of South Carolina in the wake of the surface low and primary surface trough. General thunder was also removed on the western periphery of the outlook area, mainly from GA and upstate SC. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...20z Update... A damaging wind and tornado risk will continue into the evening across the North Carolina coast and Outer Banks. A few stronger cells interacting with the baroclinic zone along the coast have shown rotation, with a possible tornado observed via radar earlier this afternoon near the SC/NC border. While cloud cover, widespread precipitation and poor lapse rates will limit instability, strong low-level vertical wind profiles will remain favorable for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. The only change with the 20z update was to trim severe probabilities from most of South Carolina in the wake of the surface low and primary surface trough. General thunder was also removed on the western periphery of the outlook area, mainly from GA and upstate SC. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...20z Update... A damaging wind and tornado risk will continue into the evening across the North Carolina coast and Outer Banks. A few stronger cells interacting with the baroclinic zone along the coast have shown rotation, with a possible tornado observed via radar earlier this afternoon near the SC/NC border. While cloud cover, widespread precipitation and poor lapse rates will limit instability, strong low-level vertical wind profiles will remain favorable for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. The only change with the 20z update was to trim severe probabilities from most of South Carolina in the wake of the surface low and primary surface trough. General thunder was also removed on the western periphery of the outlook area, mainly from GA and upstate SC. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...20z Update... A damaging wind and tornado risk will continue into the evening across the North Carolina coast and Outer Banks. A few stronger cells interacting with the baroclinic zone along the coast have shown rotation, with a possible tornado observed via radar earlier this afternoon near the SC/NC border. While cloud cover, widespread precipitation and poor lapse rates will limit instability, strong low-level vertical wind profiles will remain favorable for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. The only change with the 20z update was to trim severe probabilities from most of South Carolina in the wake of the surface low and primary surface trough. General thunder was also removed on the western periphery of the outlook area, mainly from GA and upstate SC. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...20z Update... A damaging wind and tornado risk will continue into the evening across the North Carolina coast and Outer Banks. A few stronger cells interacting with the baroclinic zone along the coast have shown rotation, with a possible tornado observed via radar earlier this afternoon near the SC/NC border. While cloud cover, widespread precipitation and poor lapse rates will limit instability, strong low-level vertical wind profiles will remain favorable for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. The only change with the 20z update was to trim severe probabilities from most of South Carolina in the wake of the surface low and primary surface trough. General thunder was also removed on the western periphery of the outlook area, mainly from GA and upstate SC. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. Read more