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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, brief locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of the southern High Plains with gusty winds of 20-25 mph this afternoon. However, dense cloud cover and increasing moisture should keep concerns limited. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread the Southeast as a pronounced mid-level trough ejects into the MS Valley today. Surface cyclone development should take place over the northern Plains, with the central Plains experiencing low-level moisture return and the central/southern High Plains receiving strong, but modestly dry westerly surface winds behind a cold front. Meanwhile, modestly dry low-level air will meander over the central Appalachians. Overall, quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across the CONUS given the lack of favorably overlapping strong surface winds/low RH over receptive fuels, with no fire weather highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, brief locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of the southern High Plains with gusty winds of 20-25 mph this afternoon. However, dense cloud cover and increasing moisture should keep concerns limited. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread the Southeast as a pronounced mid-level trough ejects into the MS Valley today. Surface cyclone development should take place over the northern Plains, with the central Plains experiencing low-level moisture return and the central/southern High Plains receiving strong, but modestly dry westerly surface winds behind a cold front. Meanwhile, modestly dry low-level air will meander over the central Appalachians. Overall, quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across the CONUS given the lack of favorably overlapping strong surface winds/low RH over receptive fuels, with no fire weather highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, brief locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of the southern High Plains with gusty winds of 20-25 mph this afternoon. However, dense cloud cover and increasing moisture should keep concerns limited. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread the Southeast as a pronounced mid-level trough ejects into the MS Valley today. Surface cyclone development should take place over the northern Plains, with the central Plains experiencing low-level moisture return and the central/southern High Plains receiving strong, but modestly dry westerly surface winds behind a cold front. Meanwhile, modestly dry low-level air will meander over the central Appalachians. Overall, quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across the CONUS given the lack of favorably overlapping strong surface winds/low RH over receptive fuels, with no fire weather highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive upper flow pattern across the U.S. is forecast to amplify with time, as a short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward across Texas and New Mexico and into the Plains through tonight, while a second trough/low just off the Pacific Northwest Coast digs south-southeastward across California. The overall effect of this evolution will be a broadening of the overall cyclonic flow field, expanding to encompass essentially the entire western and central U.S. by tomorrow morning. Upstream from this feature, stout ridging will gradually shift across the eastern half of the country. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle region today, as the initial cyclonic perturbation aloft shifts northeastward. Within the evolving warm sector, showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop by late this afternoon. With that said, meager instability is anticipated, with surface dewpoints across the central and southern Plains only in the upper 30s to low 40s, and little impetus for any appreciable low-level theta-e increase. While the background flow field would otherwise support organized storms -- and indeed a stronger wind gust or small hail may occur with one or two of the more robust updrafts -- the lack of a more favorable thermodynamic environment argues against introduction of even low-probabilities/MRGL risk at this time. Elsewhere, severe storms are not expected through the period. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive upper flow pattern across the U.S. is forecast to amplify with time, as a short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward across Texas and New Mexico and into the Plains through tonight, while a second trough/low just off the Pacific Northwest Coast digs south-southeastward across California. The overall effect of this evolution will be a broadening of the overall cyclonic flow field, expanding to encompass essentially the entire western and central U.S. by tomorrow morning. Upstream from this feature, stout ridging will gradually shift across the eastern half of the country. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle region today, as the initial cyclonic perturbation aloft shifts northeastward. Within the evolving warm sector, showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop by late this afternoon. With that said, meager instability is anticipated, with surface dewpoints across the central and southern Plains only in the upper 30s to low 40s, and little impetus for any appreciable low-level theta-e increase. While the background flow field would otherwise support organized storms -- and indeed a stronger wind gust or small hail may occur with one or two of the more robust updrafts -- the lack of a more favorable thermodynamic environment argues against introduction of even low-probabilities/MRGL risk at this time. Elsewhere, severe storms are not expected through the period. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive upper flow pattern across the U.S. is forecast to amplify with time, as a short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward across Texas and New Mexico and into the Plains through tonight, while a second trough/low just off the Pacific Northwest Coast digs south-southeastward across California. The overall effect of this evolution will be a broadening of the overall cyclonic flow field, expanding to encompass essentially the entire western and central U.S. by tomorrow morning. Upstream from this feature, stout ridging will gradually shift across the eastern half of the country. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle region today, as the initial cyclonic perturbation aloft shifts northeastward. Within the evolving warm sector, showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop by late this afternoon. With that said, meager instability is anticipated, with surface dewpoints across the central and southern Plains only in the upper 30s to low 40s, and little impetus for any appreciable low-level theta-e increase. While the background flow field would otherwise support organized storms -- and indeed a stronger wind gust or small hail may occur with one or two of the more robust updrafts -- the lack of a more favorable thermodynamic environment argues against introduction of even low-probabilities/MRGL risk at this time. Elsewhere, severe storms are not expected through the period. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive upper flow pattern across the U.S. is forecast to amplify with time, as a short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward across Texas and New Mexico and into the Plains through tonight, while a second trough/low just off the Pacific Northwest Coast digs south-southeastward across California. The overall effect of this evolution will be a broadening of the overall cyclonic flow field, expanding to encompass essentially the entire western and central U.S. by tomorrow morning. Upstream from this feature, stout ridging will gradually shift across the eastern half of the country. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle region today, as the initial cyclonic perturbation aloft shifts northeastward. Within the evolving warm sector, showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop by late this afternoon. With that said, meager instability is anticipated, with surface dewpoints across the central and southern Plains only in the upper 30s to low 40s, and little impetus for any appreciable low-level theta-e increase. While the background flow field would otherwise support organized storms -- and indeed a stronger wind gust or small hail may occur with one or two of the more robust updrafts -- the lack of a more favorable thermodynamic environment argues against introduction of even low-probabilities/MRGL risk at this time. Elsewhere, severe storms are not expected through the period. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive upper flow pattern across the U.S. is forecast to amplify with time, as a short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward across Texas and New Mexico and into the Plains through tonight, while a second trough/low just off the Pacific Northwest Coast digs south-southeastward across California. The overall effect of this evolution will be a broadening of the overall cyclonic flow field, expanding to encompass essentially the entire western and central U.S. by tomorrow morning. Upstream from this feature, stout ridging will gradually shift across the eastern half of the country. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle region today, as the initial cyclonic perturbation aloft shifts northeastward. Within the evolving warm sector, showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop by late this afternoon. With that said, meager instability is anticipated, with surface dewpoints across the central and southern Plains only in the upper 30s to low 40s, and little impetus for any appreciable low-level theta-e increase. While the background flow field would otherwise support organized storms -- and indeed a stronger wind gust or small hail may occur with one or two of the more robust updrafts -- the lack of a more favorable thermodynamic environment argues against introduction of even low-probabilities/MRGL risk at this time. Elsewhere, severe storms are not expected through the period. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...Great Plains including Nebraska/Kansas... The lead portion of an upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts/Baja vicinity will eject northeastward and reach the High Plains by evening, with strengthening southwesterly mid/high-level flow. Limited moisture ahead of a deepening surface cyclone and dual fronts will likely limit severe-convective potential, although isolated thunderstorms may develop across the central High Plains by early evening as forcing for ascent increases into the region. While boundary layer moisture and overall buoyancy will remain limited, it appears that a couple of stronger storms could occur across near the northeastward-developing surface low/triple point vicinity early this evening, potentially including some hail, while also including the potential for gusty winds near the triple point southward along the advancing cold front across Kansas. These thermodynamic scenarios currently appear too limited for severe probabilities, but observational trends/short-term guidance will be reevaluated today. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...Great Plains including Nebraska/Kansas... The lead portion of an upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts/Baja vicinity will eject northeastward and reach the High Plains by evening, with strengthening southwesterly mid/high-level flow. Limited moisture ahead of a deepening surface cyclone and dual fronts will likely limit severe-convective potential, although isolated thunderstorms may develop across the central High Plains by early evening as forcing for ascent increases into the region. While boundary layer moisture and overall buoyancy will remain limited, it appears that a couple of stronger storms could occur across near the northeastward-developing surface low/triple point vicinity early this evening, potentially including some hail, while also including the potential for gusty winds near the triple point southward along the advancing cold front across Kansas. These thermodynamic scenarios currently appear too limited for severe probabilities, but observational trends/short-term guidance will be reevaluated today. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...Great Plains including Nebraska/Kansas... The lead portion of an upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts/Baja vicinity will eject northeastward and reach the High Plains by evening, with strengthening southwesterly mid/high-level flow. Limited moisture ahead of a deepening surface cyclone and dual fronts will likely limit severe-convective potential, although isolated thunderstorms may develop across the central High Plains by early evening as forcing for ascent increases into the region. While boundary layer moisture and overall buoyancy will remain limited, it appears that a couple of stronger storms could occur across near the northeastward-developing surface low/triple point vicinity early this evening, potentially including some hail, while also including the potential for gusty winds near the triple point southward along the advancing cold front across Kansas. These thermodynamic scenarios currently appear too limited for severe probabilities, but observational trends/short-term guidance will be reevaluated today. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...Great Plains including Nebraska/Kansas... The lead portion of an upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts/Baja vicinity will eject northeastward and reach the High Plains by evening, with strengthening southwesterly mid/high-level flow. Limited moisture ahead of a deepening surface cyclone and dual fronts will likely limit severe-convective potential, although isolated thunderstorms may develop across the central High Plains by early evening as forcing for ascent increases into the region. While boundary layer moisture and overall buoyancy will remain limited, it appears that a couple of stronger storms could occur across near the northeastward-developing surface low/triple point vicinity early this evening, potentially including some hail, while also including the potential for gusty winds near the triple point southward along the advancing cold front across Kansas. These thermodynamic scenarios currently appear too limited for severe probabilities, but observational trends/short-term guidance will be reevaluated today. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...Great Plains including Nebraska/Kansas... The lead portion of an upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts/Baja vicinity will eject northeastward and reach the High Plains by evening, with strengthening southwesterly mid/high-level flow. Limited moisture ahead of a deepening surface cyclone and dual fronts will likely limit severe-convective potential, although isolated thunderstorms may develop across the central High Plains by early evening as forcing for ascent increases into the region. While boundary layer moisture and overall buoyancy will remain limited, it appears that a couple of stronger storms could occur across near the northeastward-developing surface low/triple point vicinity early this evening, potentially including some hail, while also including the potential for gusty winds near the triple point southward along the advancing cold front across Kansas. These thermodynamic scenarios currently appear too limited for severe probabilities, but observational trends/short-term guidance will be reevaluated today. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 02/07/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, an elongated positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move gradually east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley. There are clear predictability issues regarding the speed of the primary southern speed max and the amplitude of the wave, especially as it potentially accelerates across the Southeast Sunday/D5 or Monday/D6. In addition, models are forecasting substantial rain and thunderstorm coverage preceding any such wave, resulting in weaker instability. However, sufficient moisture and instability could develop given a possible strengthening shortwave trough, resulting in severe potential on one of those days across parts of the Southeast. A risk area could be needed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, an elongated positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move gradually east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley. There are clear predictability issues regarding the speed of the primary southern speed max and the amplitude of the wave, especially as it potentially accelerates across the Southeast Sunday/D5 or Monday/D6. In addition, models are forecasting substantial rain and thunderstorm coverage preceding any such wave, resulting in weaker instability. However, sufficient moisture and instability could develop given a possible strengthening shortwave trough, resulting in severe potential on one of those days across parts of the Southeast. A risk area could be needed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, an elongated positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move gradually east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley. There are clear predictability issues regarding the speed of the primary southern speed max and the amplitude of the wave, especially as it potentially accelerates across the Southeast Sunday/D5 or Monday/D6. In addition, models are forecasting substantial rain and thunderstorm coverage preceding any such wave, resulting in weaker instability. However, sufficient moisture and instability could develop given a possible strengthening shortwave trough, resulting in severe potential on one of those days across parts of the Southeast. A risk area could be needed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, an elongated positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move gradually east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley. There are clear predictability issues regarding the speed of the primary southern speed max and the amplitude of the wave, especially as it potentially accelerates across the Southeast Sunday/D5 or Monday/D6. In addition, models are forecasting substantial rain and thunderstorm coverage preceding any such wave, resulting in weaker instability. However, sufficient moisture and instability could develop given a possible strengthening shortwave trough, resulting in severe potential on one of those days across parts of the Southeast. A risk area could be needed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, an elongated positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move gradually east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley. There are clear predictability issues regarding the speed of the primary southern speed max and the amplitude of the wave, especially as it potentially accelerates across the Southeast Sunday/D5 or Monday/D6. In addition, models are forecasting substantial rain and thunderstorm coverage preceding any such wave, resulting in weaker instability. However, sufficient moisture and instability could develop given a possible strengthening shortwave trough, resulting in severe potential on one of those days across parts of the Southeast. A risk area could be needed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, an elongated positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move gradually east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley. There are clear predictability issues regarding the speed of the primary southern speed max and the amplitude of the wave, especially as it potentially accelerates across the Southeast Sunday/D5 or Monday/D6. In addition, models are forecasting substantial rain and thunderstorm coverage preceding any such wave, resulting in weaker instability. However, sufficient moisture and instability could develop given a possible strengthening shortwave trough, resulting in severe potential on one of those days across parts of the Southeast. A risk area could be needed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Members of the Nebraska Corn Board have trimmed their budget and have requested an increase in the corn checkoff from one half-cent to one cent. Drought and inflation have cut into the amount collected, which is around $7 million. NTV (Axtell, Neb.), Feb 6, 2024