Aggregator

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the prior outlook based on observational trends. Meager moisture/buoyancy present across northeastern CO into western NE should limit the threat for severe thunderstorms, though occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible. ..Gleason.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Discussion... A progressive upper flow pattern across the U.S. is forecast to amplify with time, as a short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward across Texas and New Mexico and into the Plains through tonight, while a second trough/low just off the Pacific Northwest Coast digs south-southeastward across California. The overall effect of this evolution will be a broadening of the overall cyclonic flow field, expanding to encompass essentially the entire western and central U.S. by tomorrow morning. Upstream from this feature, stout ridging will gradually shift across the eastern half of the country. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle region today, as the initial cyclonic perturbation aloft shifts northeastward. Within the evolving warm sector, showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop by late this afternoon. With that said, meager instability is anticipated, with surface dewpoints across the central and southern Plains only in the upper 30s to low 40s, and little impetus for any appreciable low-level theta-e increase. While the background flow field would otherwise support organized storms -- and indeed a stronger wind gust or small hail may occur with one or two of the more robust updrafts -- the lack of a more favorable thermodynamic environment argues against introduction of even low-probabilities/MRGL risk at this time. Elsewhere, severe storms are not expected through the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the prior outlook based on observational trends. Meager moisture/buoyancy present across northeastern CO into western NE should limit the threat for severe thunderstorms, though occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible. ..Gleason.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Discussion... A progressive upper flow pattern across the U.S. is forecast to amplify with time, as a short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward across Texas and New Mexico and into the Plains through tonight, while a second trough/low just off the Pacific Northwest Coast digs south-southeastward across California. The overall effect of this evolution will be a broadening of the overall cyclonic flow field, expanding to encompass essentially the entire western and central U.S. by tomorrow morning. Upstream from this feature, stout ridging will gradually shift across the eastern half of the country. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle region today, as the initial cyclonic perturbation aloft shifts northeastward. Within the evolving warm sector, showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop by late this afternoon. With that said, meager instability is anticipated, with surface dewpoints across the central and southern Plains only in the upper 30s to low 40s, and little impetus for any appreciable low-level theta-e increase. While the background flow field would otherwise support organized storms -- and indeed a stronger wind gust or small hail may occur with one or two of the more robust updrafts -- the lack of a more favorable thermodynamic environment argues against introduction of even low-probabilities/MRGL risk at this time. Elsewhere, severe storms are not expected through the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the prior outlook based on observational trends. Meager moisture/buoyancy present across northeastern CO into western NE should limit the threat for severe thunderstorms, though occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible. ..Gleason.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Discussion... A progressive upper flow pattern across the U.S. is forecast to amplify with time, as a short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward across Texas and New Mexico and into the Plains through tonight, while a second trough/low just off the Pacific Northwest Coast digs south-southeastward across California. The overall effect of this evolution will be a broadening of the overall cyclonic flow field, expanding to encompass essentially the entire western and central U.S. by tomorrow morning. Upstream from this feature, stout ridging will gradually shift across the eastern half of the country. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle region today, as the initial cyclonic perturbation aloft shifts northeastward. Within the evolving warm sector, showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop by late this afternoon. With that said, meager instability is anticipated, with surface dewpoints across the central and southern Plains only in the upper 30s to low 40s, and little impetus for any appreciable low-level theta-e increase. While the background flow field would otherwise support organized storms -- and indeed a stronger wind gust or small hail may occur with one or two of the more robust updrafts -- the lack of a more favorable thermodynamic environment argues against introduction of even low-probabilities/MRGL risk at this time. Elsewhere, severe storms are not expected through the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the prior outlook based on observational trends. Meager moisture/buoyancy present across northeastern CO into western NE should limit the threat for severe thunderstorms, though occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible. ..Gleason.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Discussion... A progressive upper flow pattern across the U.S. is forecast to amplify with time, as a short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward across Texas and New Mexico and into the Plains through tonight, while a second trough/low just off the Pacific Northwest Coast digs south-southeastward across California. The overall effect of this evolution will be a broadening of the overall cyclonic flow field, expanding to encompass essentially the entire western and central U.S. by tomorrow morning. Upstream from this feature, stout ridging will gradually shift across the eastern half of the country. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle region today, as the initial cyclonic perturbation aloft shifts northeastward. Within the evolving warm sector, showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop by late this afternoon. With that said, meager instability is anticipated, with surface dewpoints across the central and southern Plains only in the upper 30s to low 40s, and little impetus for any appreciable low-level theta-e increase. While the background flow field would otherwise support organized storms -- and indeed a stronger wind gust or small hail may occur with one or two of the more robust updrafts -- the lack of a more favorable thermodynamic environment argues against introduction of even low-probabilities/MRGL risk at this time. Elsewhere, severe storms are not expected through the period. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No major changes. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains with periodic strong gusts and 25-35% RH. However, area fuels remain abnormally wet and the risk for sustained fire-weather conditions appears low due to fuel considerations. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify while traversing the Ohio Valley as a second upper trough ejects into the southern Plains tomorrow/Thursday. A surface low will develop along the Colorado and Kansas borders, allowing for continued moisture return across the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The combination of cool or moist low-level conditions should be common across much of the CONUS tomorrow. The one exception will be the central and southern High Plains, which should experience dry westerly downslope flow and associated Elevated equivalent surface conditions by Thursday afternoon. However, fuels in this region are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding the addition of any fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No major changes. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains with periodic strong gusts and 25-35% RH. However, area fuels remain abnormally wet and the risk for sustained fire-weather conditions appears low due to fuel considerations. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify while traversing the Ohio Valley as a second upper trough ejects into the southern Plains tomorrow/Thursday. A surface low will develop along the Colorado and Kansas borders, allowing for continued moisture return across the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The combination of cool or moist low-level conditions should be common across much of the CONUS tomorrow. The one exception will be the central and southern High Plains, which should experience dry westerly downslope flow and associated Elevated equivalent surface conditions by Thursday afternoon. However, fuels in this region are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding the addition of any fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No major changes. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains with periodic strong gusts and 25-35% RH. However, area fuels remain abnormally wet and the risk for sustained fire-weather conditions appears low due to fuel considerations. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify while traversing the Ohio Valley as a second upper trough ejects into the southern Plains tomorrow/Thursday. A surface low will develop along the Colorado and Kansas borders, allowing for continued moisture return across the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The combination of cool or moist low-level conditions should be common across much of the CONUS tomorrow. The one exception will be the central and southern High Plains, which should experience dry westerly downslope flow and associated Elevated equivalent surface conditions by Thursday afternoon. However, fuels in this region are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding the addition of any fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No major changes. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains with periodic strong gusts and 25-35% RH. However, area fuels remain abnormally wet and the risk for sustained fire-weather conditions appears low due to fuel considerations. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify while traversing the Ohio Valley as a second upper trough ejects into the southern Plains tomorrow/Thursday. A surface low will develop along the Colorado and Kansas borders, allowing for continued moisture return across the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The combination of cool or moist low-level conditions should be common across much of the CONUS tomorrow. The one exception will be the central and southern High Plains, which should experience dry westerly downslope flow and associated Elevated equivalent surface conditions by Thursday afternoon. However, fuels in this region are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding the addition of any fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No major changes. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains with periodic strong gusts and 25-35% RH. However, area fuels remain abnormally wet and the risk for sustained fire-weather conditions appears low due to fuel considerations. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify while traversing the Ohio Valley as a second upper trough ejects into the southern Plains tomorrow/Thursday. A surface low will develop along the Colorado and Kansas borders, allowing for continued moisture return across the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The combination of cool or moist low-level conditions should be common across much of the CONUS tomorrow. The one exception will be the central and southern High Plains, which should experience dry westerly downslope flow and associated Elevated equivalent surface conditions by Thursday afternoon. However, fuels in this region are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding the addition of any fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Three public water systems in Whatcom County have run dry, and three additional systems were not far from emergency situations. On July 25, Baker View and Aldergrove were completely out of water or nearly out, and Mountain View had opened an emergency intertie with the City of Ferndale, so the well system could connect to the city’s water supply. Another three wells were running very low, forcing residents to conserve. Cascadia Daily News (Bellingham, Wash.), July 26, 2023

Visitors to city parks in San Marcos were urged to bring their own water as drought leads to cracks in the soil and broken water pipes. The city has to shut off water to the parks until repairs can be made. FOX 7 Austin (Texas), July 28, 2023

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday afternoon across parts of eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. ...Eastern Iowa into Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... A low confidence and conditional severe threat may exist Thursday afternoon across this region as a large-scale upper trough/low ejects east-northeastward across the Upper Midwest and MS Valley. A stacked cyclone will be present across the Dakotas into MN Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southward from the deep surface low across much of the Plains. As this front moves eastward through the day, modest low-level moisture will attempt to return northward ahead of it over the lower/mid MS Valley and the Upper Midwest. There is still some disparity in latest model guidance regarding both the northward extent of appreciable low-level moisture, and the quality of said moisture. Upper 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints will likely be needed to support even a low chance for organized convection, as daytime heating should remain limited due to persistent cloud cover. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft may also aid in the development of weak instability by late Thursday afternoon. Most high-resolution, convection-allowing model guidance (with the exception of the 12Z HRW-FV3 and RRFS) do not develop robust convection across eastern IA, southern WI, and northern IL Thursday afternoon. This may be due to limited low-level convergence ahead of the front, with generally southwesterly flow at low/mid levels strengthening with height. Still, forecast soundings from various non-convection-allowing guidance, including the NAM, RAP, and ECMWF all show some potential for organized thunderstorms given weak MLCAPE and strong low/deep-layer shear. The GFS and ECMWF in particular show a convective precipitation signal across this region as large-scale ascent associated with an embedded shortwave trough gradually overspreads the warm sector. If thunderstorms can develop, they would be capable of producing isolated hail, strong/damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado given the favorable kinematic environment forecast. Even though overall confidence remains fairly low in convective initiation, there appears to be enough signal in various model guidance to support introduction of a small Marginal Risk to account for this somewhat conditional and isolated severe threat. ..Gleason.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday afternoon across parts of eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. ...Eastern Iowa into Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... A low confidence and conditional severe threat may exist Thursday afternoon across this region as a large-scale upper trough/low ejects east-northeastward across the Upper Midwest and MS Valley. A stacked cyclone will be present across the Dakotas into MN Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southward from the deep surface low across much of the Plains. As this front moves eastward through the day, modest low-level moisture will attempt to return northward ahead of it over the lower/mid MS Valley and the Upper Midwest. There is still some disparity in latest model guidance regarding both the northward extent of appreciable low-level moisture, and the quality of said moisture. Upper 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints will likely be needed to support even a low chance for organized convection, as daytime heating should remain limited due to persistent cloud cover. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft may also aid in the development of weak instability by late Thursday afternoon. Most high-resolution, convection-allowing model guidance (with the exception of the 12Z HRW-FV3 and RRFS) do not develop robust convection across eastern IA, southern WI, and northern IL Thursday afternoon. This may be due to limited low-level convergence ahead of the front, with generally southwesterly flow at low/mid levels strengthening with height. Still, forecast soundings from various non-convection-allowing guidance, including the NAM, RAP, and ECMWF all show some potential for organized thunderstorms given weak MLCAPE and strong low/deep-layer shear. The GFS and ECMWF in particular show a convective precipitation signal across this region as large-scale ascent associated with an embedded shortwave trough gradually overspreads the warm sector. If thunderstorms can develop, they would be capable of producing isolated hail, strong/damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado given the favorable kinematic environment forecast. Even though overall confidence remains fairly low in convective initiation, there appears to be enough signal in various model guidance to support introduction of a small Marginal Risk to account for this somewhat conditional and isolated severe threat. ..Gleason.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday afternoon across parts of eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. ...Eastern Iowa into Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... A low confidence and conditional severe threat may exist Thursday afternoon across this region as a large-scale upper trough/low ejects east-northeastward across the Upper Midwest and MS Valley. A stacked cyclone will be present across the Dakotas into MN Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southward from the deep surface low across much of the Plains. As this front moves eastward through the day, modest low-level moisture will attempt to return northward ahead of it over the lower/mid MS Valley and the Upper Midwest. There is still some disparity in latest model guidance regarding both the northward extent of appreciable low-level moisture, and the quality of said moisture. Upper 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints will likely be needed to support even a low chance for organized convection, as daytime heating should remain limited due to persistent cloud cover. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft may also aid in the development of weak instability by late Thursday afternoon. Most high-resolution, convection-allowing model guidance (with the exception of the 12Z HRW-FV3 and RRFS) do not develop robust convection across eastern IA, southern WI, and northern IL Thursday afternoon. This may be due to limited low-level convergence ahead of the front, with generally southwesterly flow at low/mid levels strengthening with height. Still, forecast soundings from various non-convection-allowing guidance, including the NAM, RAP, and ECMWF all show some potential for organized thunderstorms given weak MLCAPE and strong low/deep-layer shear. The GFS and ECMWF in particular show a convective precipitation signal across this region as large-scale ascent associated with an embedded shortwave trough gradually overspreads the warm sector. If thunderstorms can develop, they would be capable of producing isolated hail, strong/damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado given the favorable kinematic environment forecast. Even though overall confidence remains fairly low in convective initiation, there appears to be enough signal in various model guidance to support introduction of a small Marginal Risk to account for this somewhat conditional and isolated severe threat. ..Gleason.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday afternoon across parts of eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. ...Eastern Iowa into Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... A low confidence and conditional severe threat may exist Thursday afternoon across this region as a large-scale upper trough/low ejects east-northeastward across the Upper Midwest and MS Valley. A stacked cyclone will be present across the Dakotas into MN Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southward from the deep surface low across much of the Plains. As this front moves eastward through the day, modest low-level moisture will attempt to return northward ahead of it over the lower/mid MS Valley and the Upper Midwest. There is still some disparity in latest model guidance regarding both the northward extent of appreciable low-level moisture, and the quality of said moisture. Upper 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints will likely be needed to support even a low chance for organized convection, as daytime heating should remain limited due to persistent cloud cover. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft may also aid in the development of weak instability by late Thursday afternoon. Most high-resolution, convection-allowing model guidance (with the exception of the 12Z HRW-FV3 and RRFS) do not develop robust convection across eastern IA, southern WI, and northern IL Thursday afternoon. This may be due to limited low-level convergence ahead of the front, with generally southwesterly flow at low/mid levels strengthening with height. Still, forecast soundings from various non-convection-allowing guidance, including the NAM, RAP, and ECMWF all show some potential for organized thunderstorms given weak MLCAPE and strong low/deep-layer shear. The GFS and ECMWF in particular show a convective precipitation signal across this region as large-scale ascent associated with an embedded shortwave trough gradually overspreads the warm sector. If thunderstorms can develop, they would be capable of producing isolated hail, strong/damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado given the favorable kinematic environment forecast. Even though overall confidence remains fairly low in convective initiation, there appears to be enough signal in various model guidance to support introduction of a small Marginal Risk to account for this somewhat conditional and isolated severe threat. ..Gleason.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday afternoon across parts of eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. ...Eastern Iowa into Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... A low confidence and conditional severe threat may exist Thursday afternoon across this region as a large-scale upper trough/low ejects east-northeastward across the Upper Midwest and MS Valley. A stacked cyclone will be present across the Dakotas into MN Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southward from the deep surface low across much of the Plains. As this front moves eastward through the day, modest low-level moisture will attempt to return northward ahead of it over the lower/mid MS Valley and the Upper Midwest. There is still some disparity in latest model guidance regarding both the northward extent of appreciable low-level moisture, and the quality of said moisture. Upper 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints will likely be needed to support even a low chance for organized convection, as daytime heating should remain limited due to persistent cloud cover. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft may also aid in the development of weak instability by late Thursday afternoon. Most high-resolution, convection-allowing model guidance (with the exception of the 12Z HRW-FV3 and RRFS) do not develop robust convection across eastern IA, southern WI, and northern IL Thursday afternoon. This may be due to limited low-level convergence ahead of the front, with generally southwesterly flow at low/mid levels strengthening with height. Still, forecast soundings from various non-convection-allowing guidance, including the NAM, RAP, and ECMWF all show some potential for organized thunderstorms given weak MLCAPE and strong low/deep-layer shear. The GFS and ECMWF in particular show a convective precipitation signal across this region as large-scale ascent associated with an embedded shortwave trough gradually overspreads the warm sector. If thunderstorms can develop, they would be capable of producing isolated hail, strong/damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado given the favorable kinematic environment forecast. Even though overall confidence remains fairly low in convective initiation, there appears to be enough signal in various model guidance to support introduction of a small Marginal Risk to account for this somewhat conditional and isolated severe threat. ..Gleason.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday afternoon across parts of eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. ...Eastern Iowa into Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... A low confidence and conditional severe threat may exist Thursday afternoon across this region as a large-scale upper trough/low ejects east-northeastward across the Upper Midwest and MS Valley. A stacked cyclone will be present across the Dakotas into MN Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southward from the deep surface low across much of the Plains. As this front moves eastward through the day, modest low-level moisture will attempt to return northward ahead of it over the lower/mid MS Valley and the Upper Midwest. There is still some disparity in latest model guidance regarding both the northward extent of appreciable low-level moisture, and the quality of said moisture. Upper 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints will likely be needed to support even a low chance for organized convection, as daytime heating should remain limited due to persistent cloud cover. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft may also aid in the development of weak instability by late Thursday afternoon. Most high-resolution, convection-allowing model guidance (with the exception of the 12Z HRW-FV3 and RRFS) do not develop robust convection across eastern IA, southern WI, and northern IL Thursday afternoon. This may be due to limited low-level convergence ahead of the front, with generally southwesterly flow at low/mid levels strengthening with height. Still, forecast soundings from various non-convection-allowing guidance, including the NAM, RAP, and ECMWF all show some potential for organized thunderstorms given weak MLCAPE and strong low/deep-layer shear. The GFS and ECMWF in particular show a convective precipitation signal across this region as large-scale ascent associated with an embedded shortwave trough gradually overspreads the warm sector. If thunderstorms can develop, they would be capable of producing isolated hail, strong/damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado given the favorable kinematic environment forecast. Even though overall confidence remains fairly low in convective initiation, there appears to be enough signal in various model guidance to support introduction of a small Marginal Risk to account for this somewhat conditional and isolated severe threat. ..Gleason.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, brief locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of the southern High Plains with gusty winds of 20-25 mph this afternoon. However, dense cloud cover and increasing moisture should keep concerns limited. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread the Southeast as a pronounced mid-level trough ejects into the MS Valley today. Surface cyclone development should take place over the northern Plains, with the central Plains experiencing low-level moisture return and the central/southern High Plains receiving strong, but modestly dry westerly surface winds behind a cold front. Meanwhile, modestly dry low-level air will meander over the central Appalachians. Overall, quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across the CONUS given the lack of favorably overlapping strong surface winds/low RH over receptive fuels, with no fire weather highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, brief locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of the southern High Plains with gusty winds of 20-25 mph this afternoon. However, dense cloud cover and increasing moisture should keep concerns limited. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread the Southeast as a pronounced mid-level trough ejects into the MS Valley today. Surface cyclone development should take place over the northern Plains, with the central Plains experiencing low-level moisture return and the central/southern High Plains receiving strong, but modestly dry westerly surface winds behind a cold front. Meanwhile, modestly dry low-level air will meander over the central Appalachians. Overall, quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across the CONUS given the lack of favorably overlapping strong surface winds/low RH over receptive fuels, with no fire weather highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more