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Residents of Portsmouth, Rhode Island have noticed a change in the water's taste and odor. The water quality may have changed due to conservation amid drought, more contaminants after rain, more treatment chemicals, more algal growth or other factors. The Newport Daily News (R.I.), Sept. 8, 2022

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Sep 2022 18:01:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Sep 2022 15:35:59 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 081800 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1200 PM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022 ...KAY EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 114.1W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lucas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Abreojos southward to Todos Santos. * San Jose De Las Palomas to the U.S./Mexico border * North of la Paz northward along the entire east coast of the Baja California peninsula and then southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in thisd case in the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay and consult products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 114.1 West. Kay is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Friday. A slower northwestward to west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Friday and continue into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected move over or near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula later today and tonight, and near the northwest coast of the Baja California peninsula on Friday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days. However, Kay is expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes over or near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next several hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning during the next few hours, and are possible within the Hurricane Watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward through Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday… Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6 inches Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...KAY EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... As of 12:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 8 the center of Kay was located near 26.6, -114.1 with movement NNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081759
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Earl, located less than 200 miles south of Bermuda, and has written
the final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Danielle, located
several hundred miles north-northwest of the Azores.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located
about a thousand miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has
a well-defined center, and earlier satellite wind data indicated
that the system is producing maximum sustained winds up to
40-45 mph to its north. However, the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, and has become displaced
further from the center compared to this morning. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for additional
development, but only a small increase in organization in the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity could result in the
formation of a short-lived tropical storm in the next day or so
as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the
central tropical Atlantic. By this weekend, environmental
conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development.
For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please
refer to the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southeast of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development as the system moves generally west-northwestward
over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Sep 08 2022 000 WTNT31 KNHC 081753 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 200 PM AST Thu Sep 08 2022 ...EARL MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH 105 MPH WINDS... ...NEXT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EN ROUTE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 64.9W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case this evening. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case later today and tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 64.9 West. Earl is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed followed by a turn to the northeast tonight and tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Earl could become a major hurricane later today. The hurricane is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical low by Saturday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning this afternoon or evening. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda this evening. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) across Bermuda through Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and are expected to reach the U.S. east coast later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...EARL MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH 105 MPH WINDS... ...NEXT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EN ROUTE... As of 2:00 PM AST Thu Sep 8 the center of Earl was located near 29.7, -64.9 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Sep 2022 17:53:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Sep 2022 15:29:57 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081750
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 8 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kay, which is near the central Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 8 17:44:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 8 17:44:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 08 2022 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast and Southwest on Friday, with a risk for occasional damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Southeast... A weak upper trough/low should remain centered over the lower MS Valley on Friday. Modestly enhanced low/mid-level flow is forecast to be present on the east side of the upper low, mainly over parts of FL into southern GA and SC. A seasonably moist airmass, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, will likely exist across these areas along/south of a weak front. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining poor, daytime heating should encourage the development of weak to moderate instability through Friday afternoon, with greater instability forecast with southward extent across the FL Peninsula. Most guidance indicates that thunderstorms will be ongoing Friday morning over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, perhaps extending into parts of north/central FL. Current expectations are for loosely organized convective clusters to spread generally east/northeastward across much of FL through the day, and into southern GA and coastal SC through Friday night. With generally modest deep-layer shear around 30 kt or less, multicells should be the main convective mode. Occasional damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores, particularly where low-level lapse rates can become steepened through diurnal heating. A brief tornado also appears possible, mainly near the weak front as thunderstorms cross this boundary. ...Southwest... Hurricane Kay is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move slowly north-northwestward Friday near the northern Baja Peninsula while gradually weakening. Consensus of 12Z guidance shows that enhanced low/mid-level east-southeasterly winds will overspread parts of southern CA/AZ through the day. Even with widespread mid/upper-level cloudiness present over these areas, it appears possible that filtered daytime heating may allow weak instability to develop on the eastern periphery of the broad precipitation shield. If even modest instability can be realized Friday afternoon, then the strong low-level flow and related 0-1 km SRH would favor updraft organization with any low-topped cells that can form in an outer rain/convective band. High-resolution guidance shows some variability on whether this scenario occurs. Regardless, opted to include low severe probabilities for strong/gusty convective winds and a brief tornado across a small part of southern CA and southwestern AZ given the favorable kinematic fields that are forecast. ..Gleason.. 09/08/2022 Read more

August runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa fell to 0.9 million acre-feet, which is 62% of average, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Runoff for all of 2022 is predicted to be 20.2 million acre-feet, or 78% of average. Runoff into South Dakota’s Oahe Reservoir was just 10% of average in August. Fort Peck Dam is expected to lower its releases to 4,000 cubic feet per second by mid-September, down from 7,800 cfs. Winter releases from Gavins Point Dam on the South Dakota border with Nebraska will be 12,000 cfs to conserve water. Power generation is projected to be 7.3 billion kilowatt hours in 2022, compared to the long-term average of 9.4 billion kilowatt hours. Billings Gazette (Mont.), Sept 7, 2022

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Sep 08 2022 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SNAKE RIVER PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... Minimal changes where made to the ongoing forecast based on observations and ensemble guidance. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for areas west of the Cascade crest very late in the period as the surface high intensifies in the Northwest/northern Rockies. The main impacts from these offshore winds are still expected to occur on Friday when wind speeds will peak, however. ..Wendt.. 09/08/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Thu Sep 08 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough moving onshore across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to strengthen today as high pressure is broken down over the Southwest. Moderate mid-level flow will spill eastward into the central/northern Rockies and over the High Plains. A lee low over the eastern Plains is expected to strengthen, dragging a cold front south through WY and the Dakotas. Moderate flow aloft and increasing surface pressure gradients driven by the low will support strong surface wind fields across the central Rockies and High Plains into tonight. With unseasonably hot temperatures and very dry fuels, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected. ...Central Idaho... As the upper trough continues eastward, moderate flow aloft will linger across central ID behind a cold front. Gusty west winds will develop across the central Rockies and the Snake River Valley, with gusts to 25 mph possible this afternoon and evening. While temperatures will be cooler behind the front, poor overnight humidity recoveries will allow for low diurnal RH values of 15-20%. Fuels remain extremely dry and recent lightning/fire activity lends high confidence to critical fire weather concerns given the favorable RH and wind combinations. ...Wyoming onto the central High Plains... Ahead of the cold front near the surface low, winds are forecast to reach 20-30 mph in the afternoon across portions of eastern CO, NE and southeastern SD. Very hot daytime temperatures should support low afternoon humidity values below 20% along with the strong wind gusts. Widespread elevated and critical fire weather conditions appear likely given very dry fuels. Farther north across central NE and portions of northern CO, the lower humidity may be short lived as the cold front quickly moves south. Some fire weather risk may linger for a few hours behind the front given gusty winds near the surface low. While humidity values should quickly begin to rise, the strong wind shift and very dry fuels may still allow for a few hours of elevated fire weather concerns following frontal passage. Isolated high-based thunderstorms may also develop near and behind the cold front across portions of central and eastern WY. Initially dry, a few lightning strikes and strong outflow winds are possible through the afternoon and early evening. Storm coverage is expected to be relatively low, and strong forcing from the upper trough should eventually support more widespread rainfall limiting the risk for dry strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Sep 08 2022 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WYOMING/BLACK HILLS...FLORIDA...AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and locally damaging winds may occur this evening into the overnight across parts of the Upper Midwest. Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across parts of Florida, the middle Texas Coast, as well as Wyoming and the Black Hills vicinity during the mid to late afternoon. ...Upper Midwest... No changes warranted for this region. Low/mid-level warm advection is expected from a stout upstream EML regime, emanating from where record high temperatures have been set in prior days over a large portion of the interior West. This, in combination with a return-flow process that lacks robust connection to the western Gulf and therefore limits rich boundary-layer moisture, should keep an impinging cold front capped from thunderstorm development through late afternoon. By evening, mid-level height falls should overspread the front in advance of a broad upper trough reaching the Prairie Provinces to northern Great Plains. Strengthening low-level convergence and low-level arm/moist advection may provide sufficient ascent to weaken the EML and yield isolated thunderstorms initially from west-central to northeast Minnesota. Some guidance suggest this process will be more pronounced overnight and thus displaced southward. Regardless, convection is most likely to be rooted on and to the cool side of the southeast-progressing cold front. Deep-layer winds will largely be stronger deeper into the stable air mass away from the immediate front, but still adequate to support rotating updrafts amid moderate elevated buoyancy. Isolated large hail is the primary threat, but locally damaging winds from strong gusts are possible. ...Wyoming/Black Hills vicinity... The trailing portion of a cold front will move south from eastern Montana into northern Wyoming this afternoon. As this occurs, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain of far southern Montana and northwest/north-central Wyoming and then spread east-southeast. Moisture will be poor with surface dewpoints generally in the 30s F, but steep low/mid-level lapse rates should support meager MLCAPE to around 300 J/kg. High-based, skeletal convection may produce isolated severe gusts, augmented by momentum transport from strengthening mid-level winds, and small hail. This threat should diminish rapidly near sunset. ...Central/south Florida Peninsula... To the east of a low centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico, scattered, semi-organized, slow-moving thunderstorms will move across the Florida Peninsula through late afternoon and evening. While low/mid-level winds are not overly strong, ample veering and as much as 20-25 kt effective shear may support a couple of weak/transient supercells, and more prevalently, semi-organized linear segments otherwise. A localized severe storm or two could occur mainly through the afternoon. ...Middle Texas coast/South-Central Texas... In a somewhat similar regime to yesterday across east Texas, modestly enhanced northerly winds aloft in conjunction with moderate buoyancy could yield a few stronger storms this afternoon, with localized wind damage the most probable hazard. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/08/2022 Read more

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 08 2022 000 WTNT41 KNHC 081459 TCDAT1 Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 08 2022 The convective structure of Earl this morning is interesting, with a large convective band with cloud tops below -70 C completing one full cyclonic orbit around the hurricane. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters earlier indicated that the central pressure had fallen from last night, with the final reading at 965 mb. However, the 700 mb flight level, SFMR, and tail Doppler radar winds have yet to respond to the continued falling pressure. Therefore, the wind speed this advisory will be held at 90 kt. Of note, the aircraft mission is reporting that Earl has a fairly large closed eye , with an estimated diameter of 50 n mi. Based on the last few center fixes, Earl is starting to make the turn to the north-northeast as it gradually accelerates, estimated at 030/11 kt. A shortwave trough in the process of moving offshore of the Eastern U.S. coastline and this feature, in combination with mid-level ridging to the east of Earl, is expected to cause Earl to bend further eastward as the flow accelerates. There have been very few changes made to the NHC forecast track over the first 24-48 hours, with Earl expected to pass 75-100 n mi to the southeast of Bermuda tonight into tomorrow morning. Shortly after 48 hours, Earl will be captured by the digging shortwave trough with model guidance indicating it will undergo a warm-seclusion-type extratropical transition. This process will also likely result in a substantial slow-down in the forward motion between 48-72 hours, and this portion of the track forecast has the largest along-track spread, related to the degree of phasing between Earl and this trough. Thereafter, their combination should begin to move eastward into the Atlantic Maritimes by the end of the forecast period, opting to favor a blend between the GFS and ECMWF track solutions. Per the latest SHIPS guidance, vertical wind shear over Earl is now under 10 kt and is forecast to remain that way for the next 24 hours as Earl traverses over 29 C sea-surface temperatures. Thus, steady intensification is expected, with the assumption that the current core structure of Earl fully consolidates and takes advantage of this favorable environment. The peak intensity of 115 kt is still under the latest LGEM and HCCA guidance. After 36 hours, Earl will begin to undergo extratropical transition as the trough interaction introduces substantial baroclinicity as vertical wind shear rapidly increases. Earl is expected to transition into a powerful hurricane-force extratropical low sometime between 48-60 hours, with this low filling rather quickly thereafter, in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda, tropical-storm-force winds are expected on the island this afternoon through early Friday morning. Hurricane-force winds are possible on Bermuda this evening or tonight if Earl's track shifts farther west than is currently forecast. 2. Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and are expected to reach the U.S. East Coast later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 29.0N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 30.7N 64.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 33.5N 61.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 37.0N 57.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 40.9N 53.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 43.6N 49.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1200Z 44.9N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1200Z 46.1N 46.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1200Z 47.1N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2022 000 FONT11 KNHC 081455 PWSAT1 HURRICANE EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022 1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS ...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 11(35) 2(37) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) X(15) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 64 18(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) BERMUDA 50 4 17(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BERMUDA 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2022 050 WTNT21 KNHC 081455 TCMAT1 HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062022 1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 65.0W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB EYE DIAMETER 50 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 65.0W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 65.3W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.7N 64.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 55SE 35SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.5N 61.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 160SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 37.0N 57.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 80NW. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 200SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 40.9N 53.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 280SE 230SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 43.6N 49.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 290SE 260SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 44.9N 48.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 200SE 220SW 220NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 46.1N 46.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 47.1N 40.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 65.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 081443 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022 Kay continues to lose organization in satellite imagery, as there is no longer an eye present and the central convection continues to decrease. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 65-77 kt range, and based on this the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 75 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Kay. Kay is now over 23C sea surface temperatures and will be traversing progressively cooler SSTs over the next couple of days. That, along with land interaction and a gradually drying mid-level air mass, is expected to cause gradual weakening over the next couple of days. However, Kay is forecast to remain a hurricane when it passes near or over the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula in about 12 h, and remain a tropical storm as it passes just west of the northwestern portion of the peninsula on Friday. The cyclone is expected to lose its convection and become post-tropical between 48-60 h, and then decay to a remnant low pressure area by 72 h. Kay continues to move north-northwestward or 345/13 kt. There is no change to the previous track forecast philosophy. A mid-level ridge to the east of Kay should steer it on a north-northwestward heading during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a weaker and more vertically shallow Kay is expected to turn more westward, and eventually southward to the southeast of a low-level ridge over the eastern Pacific. The track guidance has changed little since the last advisory, so the new track forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Kay remains a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern Mexico, the Gulf of California, and the Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes landfall or moves very close to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track. KEY MESSAGES: 1. As the center of Kay passes just offshore, heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is likely across Southern California beginning Friday, especially in and near the peninsular ranges. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible beginning Friday in Southwest Arizona. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the west-central Baja California coast later this morning through this evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected to spread northward during the next day or so, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 25.8N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 27.6N 114.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1200Z 29.6N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 31.5N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 31.7N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 11/1200Z 31.3N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 30.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 28.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven