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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as a second mid-level trough impinges on California, with abundant rainfall expected in both regions today. Meanwhile, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the central CONUS. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the U.S., especially considering that fuels will be poorly receptive to wildfire spread for many locales. ..Squitieri.. 12/18/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as a second mid-level trough impinges on California, with abundant rainfall expected in both regions today. Meanwhile, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the central CONUS. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the U.S., especially considering that fuels will be poorly receptive to wildfire spread for many locales. ..Squitieri.. 12/18/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as a second mid-level trough impinges on California, with abundant rainfall expected in both regions today. Meanwhile, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the central CONUS. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the U.S., especially considering that fuels will be poorly receptive to wildfire spread for many locales. ..Squitieri.. 12/18/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as a second mid-level trough impinges on California, with abundant rainfall expected in both regions today. Meanwhile, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the central CONUS. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the U.S., especially considering that fuels will be poorly receptive to wildfire spread for many locales. ..Squitieri.. 12/18/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper low initially centered over the PA/western NY vicinity is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday evening. This upper low will be characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and strong mid-level flow, particularly throughout its eastern periphery. Even so, low-level moisture will have been scoured well offshore by a previous frontal intrusion, and the dry continental air mass expected to be in place will be hostile to deep convection. Farther west, an upper low is expected to drift southward off the West Coast, ending the period centered off the central CA Coast. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated across central CA ahead of this upper low, contributing to showers throughout the day. A few deeper updrafts capable of lightning flashes are possible within these showers. A higher probability lightning potential is expected early Wednesday morning as the primary frontal band associated with the upper low approaches the central CA Coast. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move through the westerly flow aloft south of the upper low across southern CA. However, thermodynamic conditions in the vicinity of this shortwave are not conducive to lightning production. ..Mosier.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper low initially centered over the PA/western NY vicinity is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday evening. This upper low will be characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and strong mid-level flow, particularly throughout its eastern periphery. Even so, low-level moisture will have been scoured well offshore by a previous frontal intrusion, and the dry continental air mass expected to be in place will be hostile to deep convection. Farther west, an upper low is expected to drift southward off the West Coast, ending the period centered off the central CA Coast. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated across central CA ahead of this upper low, contributing to showers throughout the day. A few deeper updrafts capable of lightning flashes are possible within these showers. A higher probability lightning potential is expected early Wednesday morning as the primary frontal band associated with the upper low approaches the central CA Coast. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move through the westerly flow aloft south of the upper low across southern CA. However, thermodynamic conditions in the vicinity of this shortwave are not conducive to lightning production. ..Mosier.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper low initially centered over the PA/western NY vicinity is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday evening. This upper low will be characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and strong mid-level flow, particularly throughout its eastern periphery. Even so, low-level moisture will have been scoured well offshore by a previous frontal intrusion, and the dry continental air mass expected to be in place will be hostile to deep convection. Farther west, an upper low is expected to drift southward off the West Coast, ending the period centered off the central CA Coast. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated across central CA ahead of this upper low, contributing to showers throughout the day. A few deeper updrafts capable of lightning flashes are possible within these showers. A higher probability lightning potential is expected early Wednesday morning as the primary frontal band associated with the upper low approaches the central CA Coast. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move through the westerly flow aloft south of the upper low across southern CA. However, thermodynamic conditions in the vicinity of this shortwave are not conducive to lightning production. ..Mosier.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper low initially centered over the PA/western NY vicinity is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday evening. This upper low will be characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and strong mid-level flow, particularly throughout its eastern periphery. Even so, low-level moisture will have been scoured well offshore by a previous frontal intrusion, and the dry continental air mass expected to be in place will be hostile to deep convection. Farther west, an upper low is expected to drift southward off the West Coast, ending the period centered off the central CA Coast. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated across central CA ahead of this upper low, contributing to showers throughout the day. A few deeper updrafts capable of lightning flashes are possible within these showers. A higher probability lightning potential is expected early Wednesday morning as the primary frontal band associated with the upper low approaches the central CA Coast. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move through the westerly flow aloft south of the upper low across southern CA. However, thermodynamic conditions in the vicinity of this shortwave are not conducive to lightning production. ..Mosier.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Upper low initially centered over the PA/western NY vicinity is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday evening. This upper low will be characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and strong mid-level flow, particularly throughout its eastern periphery. Even so, low-level moisture will have been scoured well offshore by a previous frontal intrusion, and the dry continental air mass expected to be in place will be hostile to deep convection. Farther west, an upper low is expected to drift southward off the West Coast, ending the period centered off the central CA Coast. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated across central CA ahead of this upper low, contributing to showers throughout the day. A few deeper updrafts capable of lightning flashes are possible within these showers. A higher probability lightning potential is expected early Wednesday morning as the primary frontal band associated with the upper low approaches the central CA Coast. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move through the westerly flow aloft south of the upper low across southern CA. However, thermodynamic conditions in the vicinity of this shortwave are not conducive to lightning production. ..Mosier.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A damaging gust or two is possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England this morning and afternoon. A few isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California coast. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast as a 500 mb jet max overspreads portions of southern New England today, supporting the rapid northeastward ejection of a 986 mb surface low into Quebec by evening. Intense low-level wind fields will be in place ahead of the surface low, supporting conditional damaging gust potential with any storms that can root into an unstable boundary layer. Meanwhile, another trough will impinge on the West Coast, supporting appreciable rainfall accumulations and at least isolated thunderstorms. ...Portions of southern New England... The surface low will overspread southern New England, immediately preceded by a 70+ kt 850 mb southerly jet. Tropospheric flow will be unidirectional, supporting straight hodographs. 6 C/km lapse rates above 850 mb may boost MUCAPE to 500 J/kg, which will support at least elevated convection. The primary mitigating factor for a robust severe thunderstorm wind threat is the likelihood for a stable boundary layer, which should dampen downward momentum transport in stronger storm cores. Modified forecast soundings suggest surface temperatures would need to reach the mid 60s F amid 60+ F dewpoints to support 100+ J/kg SBCAPE. However, ensemble guidance suggests that maximum high surface temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 60s F, casting doubt on the potential for organized severe storms. Nonetheless, the intense low-level wind fields suggest that any downward momentum transport within thunderstorm cores that can occur may support a damaging gust threat during the late morning and afternoon hours. A Category 1/Marginal Risk has been maintained for coastal portions of southern New England to address the conditional damaging gust threat. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A damaging gust or two is possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England this morning and afternoon. A few isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California coast. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast as a 500 mb jet max overspreads portions of southern New England today, supporting the rapid northeastward ejection of a 986 mb surface low into Quebec by evening. Intense low-level wind fields will be in place ahead of the surface low, supporting conditional damaging gust potential with any storms that can root into an unstable boundary layer. Meanwhile, another trough will impinge on the West Coast, supporting appreciable rainfall accumulations and at least isolated thunderstorms. ...Portions of southern New England... The surface low will overspread southern New England, immediately preceded by a 70+ kt 850 mb southerly jet. Tropospheric flow will be unidirectional, supporting straight hodographs. 6 C/km lapse rates above 850 mb may boost MUCAPE to 500 J/kg, which will support at least elevated convection. The primary mitigating factor for a robust severe thunderstorm wind threat is the likelihood for a stable boundary layer, which should dampen downward momentum transport in stronger storm cores. Modified forecast soundings suggest surface temperatures would need to reach the mid 60s F amid 60+ F dewpoints to support 100+ J/kg SBCAPE. However, ensemble guidance suggests that maximum high surface temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 60s F, casting doubt on the potential for organized severe storms. Nonetheless, the intense low-level wind fields suggest that any downward momentum transport within thunderstorm cores that can occur may support a damaging gust threat during the late morning and afternoon hours. A Category 1/Marginal Risk has been maintained for coastal portions of southern New England to address the conditional damaging gust threat. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A damaging gust or two is possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England this morning and afternoon. A few isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California coast. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast as a 500 mb jet max overspreads portions of southern New England today, supporting the rapid northeastward ejection of a 986 mb surface low into Quebec by evening. Intense low-level wind fields will be in place ahead of the surface low, supporting conditional damaging gust potential with any storms that can root into an unstable boundary layer. Meanwhile, another trough will impinge on the West Coast, supporting appreciable rainfall accumulations and at least isolated thunderstorms. ...Portions of southern New England... The surface low will overspread southern New England, immediately preceded by a 70+ kt 850 mb southerly jet. Tropospheric flow will be unidirectional, supporting straight hodographs. 6 C/km lapse rates above 850 mb may boost MUCAPE to 500 J/kg, which will support at least elevated convection. The primary mitigating factor for a robust severe thunderstorm wind threat is the likelihood for a stable boundary layer, which should dampen downward momentum transport in stronger storm cores. Modified forecast soundings suggest surface temperatures would need to reach the mid 60s F amid 60+ F dewpoints to support 100+ J/kg SBCAPE. However, ensemble guidance suggests that maximum high surface temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 60s F, casting doubt on the potential for organized severe storms. Nonetheless, the intense low-level wind fields suggest that any downward momentum transport within thunderstorm cores that can occur may support a damaging gust threat during the late morning and afternoon hours. A Category 1/Marginal Risk has been maintained for coastal portions of southern New England to address the conditional damaging gust threat. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A damaging gust or two is possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England this morning and afternoon. A few isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California coast. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast as a 500 mb jet max overspreads portions of southern New England today, supporting the rapid northeastward ejection of a 986 mb surface low into Quebec by evening. Intense low-level wind fields will be in place ahead of the surface low, supporting conditional damaging gust potential with any storms that can root into an unstable boundary layer. Meanwhile, another trough will impinge on the West Coast, supporting appreciable rainfall accumulations and at least isolated thunderstorms. ...Portions of southern New England... The surface low will overspread southern New England, immediately preceded by a 70+ kt 850 mb southerly jet. Tropospheric flow will be unidirectional, supporting straight hodographs. 6 C/km lapse rates above 850 mb may boost MUCAPE to 500 J/kg, which will support at least elevated convection. The primary mitigating factor for a robust severe thunderstorm wind threat is the likelihood for a stable boundary layer, which should dampen downward momentum transport in stronger storm cores. Modified forecast soundings suggest surface temperatures would need to reach the mid 60s F amid 60+ F dewpoints to support 100+ J/kg SBCAPE. However, ensemble guidance suggests that maximum high surface temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 60s F, casting doubt on the potential for organized severe storms. Nonetheless, the intense low-level wind fields suggest that any downward momentum transport within thunderstorm cores that can occur may support a damaging gust threat during the late morning and afternoon hours. A Category 1/Marginal Risk has been maintained for coastal portions of southern New England to address the conditional damaging gust threat. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 12/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A damaging gust or two is possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England this morning and afternoon. A few isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California coast. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast as a 500 mb jet max overspreads portions of southern New England today, supporting the rapid northeastward ejection of a 986 mb surface low into Quebec by evening. Intense low-level wind fields will be in place ahead of the surface low, supporting conditional damaging gust potential with any storms that can root into an unstable boundary layer. Meanwhile, another trough will impinge on the West Coast, supporting appreciable rainfall accumulations and at least isolated thunderstorms. ...Portions of southern New England... The surface low will overspread southern New England, immediately preceded by a 70+ kt 850 mb southerly jet. Tropospheric flow will be unidirectional, supporting straight hodographs. 6 C/km lapse rates above 850 mb may boost MUCAPE to 500 J/kg, which will support at least elevated convection. The primary mitigating factor for a robust severe thunderstorm wind threat is the likelihood for a stable boundary layer, which should dampen downward momentum transport in stronger storm cores. Modified forecast soundings suggest surface temperatures would need to reach the mid 60s F amid 60+ F dewpoints to support 100+ J/kg SBCAPE. However, ensemble guidance suggests that maximum high surface temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 60s F, casting doubt on the potential for organized severe storms. Nonetheless, the intense low-level wind fields suggest that any downward momentum transport within thunderstorm cores that can occur may support a damaging gust threat during the late morning and afternoon hours. A Category 1/Marginal Risk has been maintained for coastal portions of southern New England to address the conditional damaging gust threat. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 12/18/2023 Read more

Frederick Water and the Frederick County Administrators have reinstituted a Drought Emergency that took effect Wednesday, Nov. 15. Groundwater levels have been declining and October precipitation was just 25% of normal. The River 95.3 WZRV (Front Royal, Va.), Nov 14, 2023

MD 2336 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2336 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0853 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 180253Z - 180400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any storms along the NC coast that can ingest surface-based buoyancy. A Tornado Watch is being issued. DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to approach the NC/SC coastline, with an effective warm front established roughly near the NC shore. Regional VADs depict impressively curved/enlarged hodographs over extreme eastern North Carolina. The effective warm front and associated marginally buoyant surface-based parcels have struggled to move far inland over the last several hours, limiting severe potential. However, mid 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints reside along the shore, and it is possible that this better moisture may move further inland of ongoing storms over the next couple of hours. Should this occur, a damaging gust or brief tornado may develop with any of the stronger storms. Given the impressive shear profiles, a new Tornado Watch is being issued given destabilization/convective trends that are possible over the next few hours. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 12/18/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... LAT...LON 34637713 35417696 36047660 36297626 36277589 35917546 35457541 35037571 34727617 34587659 34637713 Read more

WW 0723 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0723 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0723 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0723 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 723 TORNADO NC CW 180255Z - 180700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 723 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 955 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 955 PM until 200 AM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...The risk for isolated severe thunderstorms will continue to slowly shift east across eastern North Carolina tonight. A couple of supercells may pose an isolated threat for damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north northeast of Cape Hatteras NC to 70 miles southwest of Cape Hatteras NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 19040. ...Smith Read more

MD 2335 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 722... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2335 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0551 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 722... Valid 172351Z - 180145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 722 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of isolated supercell structures and a brief tornado continues. DISCUSSION...Radar loops continue to show relatively shallow/weak showers and isolated thunderstorms moving ashore across eastern NC. This activity is to the east of a deep surface low centered off the coast near the NC/SC border, in a regime of very strong low-level winds and vertical shear. The VAD profile at ILM is showing a rapidly weakening shear profile/hodograph as the surface low moves east and as a mid-level dry slot approaches, but the VAD at MHX remains very intense with 1km AGL winds over 60 knots. Stronger low-level moisture and instability remains just offshore and may never make it very far inland. But transient supercell structures may develop along the near-shore baroclinic zone, posing a risk of brief tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Tornado watch 722 is scheduled to expire at 01z. Current indications are that coastal counties of far-eastern NC may need to remain in a watch for a few hours beyond 01z. ..Hart.. 12/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM... LAT...LON 34457808 36117660 35997526 35107547 34417657 33787770 34457808 Read more