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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen over the TX Panhandle, while a dryline extends southward across parts of west/central TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer -- extending up to around 4 km AGL. This will support lower 70s surface temperatures and 12-15 percent minimum RH over much of the southern High Plains. Here, a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, coupled with strong flow through the depth of the boundary layer, will yield 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). The best overlap of the strong/gusty winds and low RH is expected over parts of eastern NM into West TX, where critical fire-weather conditions are expected, given receptive fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen over the TX Panhandle, while a dryline extends southward across parts of west/central TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer -- extending up to around 4 km AGL. This will support lower 70s surface temperatures and 12-15 percent minimum RH over much of the southern High Plains. Here, a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, coupled with strong flow through the depth of the boundary layer, will yield 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). The best overlap of the strong/gusty winds and low RH is expected over parts of eastern NM into West TX, where critical fire-weather conditions are expected, given receptive fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen over the TX Panhandle, while a dryline extends southward across parts of west/central TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer -- extending up to around 4 km AGL. This will support lower 70s surface temperatures and 12-15 percent minimum RH over much of the southern High Plains. Here, a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, coupled with strong flow through the depth of the boundary layer, will yield 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). The best overlap of the strong/gusty winds and low RH is expected over parts of eastern NM into West TX, where critical fire-weather conditions are expected, given receptive fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen over the TX Panhandle, while a dryline extends southward across parts of west/central TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer -- extending up to around 4 km AGL. This will support lower 70s surface temperatures and 12-15 percent minimum RH over much of the southern High Plains. Here, a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, coupled with strong flow through the depth of the boundary layer, will yield 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). The best overlap of the strong/gusty winds and low RH is expected over parts of eastern NM into West TX, where critical fire-weather conditions are expected, given receptive fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are expected to spread eastward from east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States Friday through Friday night. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... A positively tilted upper trough and associated mid/upper-level speed max will advance eastward across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley on Friday. A weak surface low should develop from the southern OK/north TX border vicinity towards the ArkLaTex through the day, while another surface low consolidates across the mid MS Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Rich low-level moisture characterized by mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will attempt to advance northward in tandem with a warm front across east TX into the lower MS Valley through Friday evening. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of east TX/OK. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated large hail as it moves northeastward, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time, the airmass across east TX into LA/AR/MS should gradually destabilize with filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening occurring. Strengthening low-level warm advection and large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough should encourage the development of additional convection along/south of the warm front through Friday afternoon. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. But, convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. A somewhat separate area of severe-hail potential should also exist across parts of eastern OK into AR Friday afternoon along and southeast of a cold front. This region will be in somewhat closer proximity to colder temperatures aloft with the upper trough, and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Assuming sufficient destabilization can occur across this region, ample effective bulk shear (around 45-55 kt) will easily support supercells with an associated threat for large hail and occasional damaging winds. The Slight Risk has been expanded a bit northward in AR and westward in TX/OK to account for this potential. The threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should continue into Friday evening and overnight/early Saturday morning across parts of MS into AL, as enhanced shear with a southerly low-level jet will likely persist across these areas. There is still some uncertainty with the northern extent of surface-based severe thunderstorm potential here, as convection that develops during the day across LA/MS may slow the northward advance of greater low-level moisture. Still, the 00Z NAM and 03Z RAP show some chance for weak, but sufficient, instability late Friday/early Saturday across central MS/AL. The Slight Risk has accordingly been expanded northward to account for this potential. There was not enough confidence in a more focused corridor of tornado risk to include greater severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are expected to spread eastward from east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States Friday through Friday night. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... A positively tilted upper trough and associated mid/upper-level speed max will advance eastward across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley on Friday. A weak surface low should develop from the southern OK/north TX border vicinity towards the ArkLaTex through the day, while another surface low consolidates across the mid MS Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Rich low-level moisture characterized by mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will attempt to advance northward in tandem with a warm front across east TX into the lower MS Valley through Friday evening. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of east TX/OK. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated large hail as it moves northeastward, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time, the airmass across east TX into LA/AR/MS should gradually destabilize with filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening occurring. Strengthening low-level warm advection and large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough should encourage the development of additional convection along/south of the warm front through Friday afternoon. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. But, convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. A somewhat separate area of severe-hail potential should also exist across parts of eastern OK into AR Friday afternoon along and southeast of a cold front. This region will be in somewhat closer proximity to colder temperatures aloft with the upper trough, and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Assuming sufficient destabilization can occur across this region, ample effective bulk shear (around 45-55 kt) will easily support supercells with an associated threat for large hail and occasional damaging winds. The Slight Risk has been expanded a bit northward in AR and westward in TX/OK to account for this potential. The threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should continue into Friday evening and overnight/early Saturday morning across parts of MS into AL, as enhanced shear with a southerly low-level jet will likely persist across these areas. There is still some uncertainty with the northern extent of surface-based severe thunderstorm potential here, as convection that develops during the day across LA/MS may slow the northward advance of greater low-level moisture. Still, the 00Z NAM and 03Z RAP show some chance for weak, but sufficient, instability late Friday/early Saturday across central MS/AL. The Slight Risk has accordingly been expanded northward to account for this potential. There was not enough confidence in a more focused corridor of tornado risk to include greater severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are expected to spread eastward from east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States Friday through Friday night. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... A positively tilted upper trough and associated mid/upper-level speed max will advance eastward across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley on Friday. A weak surface low should develop from the southern OK/north TX border vicinity towards the ArkLaTex through the day, while another surface low consolidates across the mid MS Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Rich low-level moisture characterized by mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will attempt to advance northward in tandem with a warm front across east TX into the lower MS Valley through Friday evening. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of east TX/OK. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated large hail as it moves northeastward, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time, the airmass across east TX into LA/AR/MS should gradually destabilize with filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening occurring. Strengthening low-level warm advection and large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough should encourage the development of additional convection along/south of the warm front through Friday afternoon. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. But, convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. A somewhat separate area of severe-hail potential should also exist across parts of eastern OK into AR Friday afternoon along and southeast of a cold front. This region will be in somewhat closer proximity to colder temperatures aloft with the upper trough, and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Assuming sufficient destabilization can occur across this region, ample effective bulk shear (around 45-55 kt) will easily support supercells with an associated threat for large hail and occasional damaging winds. The Slight Risk has been expanded a bit northward in AR and westward in TX/OK to account for this potential. The threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should continue into Friday evening and overnight/early Saturday morning across parts of MS into AL, as enhanced shear with a southerly low-level jet will likely persist across these areas. There is still some uncertainty with the northern extent of surface-based severe thunderstorm potential here, as convection that develops during the day across LA/MS may slow the northward advance of greater low-level moisture. Still, the 00Z NAM and 03Z RAP show some chance for weak, but sufficient, instability late Friday/early Saturday across central MS/AL. The Slight Risk has accordingly been expanded northward to account for this potential. There was not enough confidence in a more focused corridor of tornado risk to include greater severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are expected to spread eastward from east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States Friday through Friday night. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... A positively tilted upper trough and associated mid/upper-level speed max will advance eastward across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley on Friday. A weak surface low should develop from the southern OK/north TX border vicinity towards the ArkLaTex through the day, while another surface low consolidates across the mid MS Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Rich low-level moisture characterized by mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will attempt to advance northward in tandem with a warm front across east TX into the lower MS Valley through Friday evening. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of east TX/OK. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated large hail as it moves northeastward, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time, the airmass across east TX into LA/AR/MS should gradually destabilize with filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening occurring. Strengthening low-level warm advection and large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough should encourage the development of additional convection along/south of the warm front through Friday afternoon. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. But, convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. A somewhat separate area of severe-hail potential should also exist across parts of eastern OK into AR Friday afternoon along and southeast of a cold front. This region will be in somewhat closer proximity to colder temperatures aloft with the upper trough, and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Assuming sufficient destabilization can occur across this region, ample effective bulk shear (around 45-55 kt) will easily support supercells with an associated threat for large hail and occasional damaging winds. The Slight Risk has been expanded a bit northward in AR and westward in TX/OK to account for this potential. The threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should continue into Friday evening and overnight/early Saturday morning across parts of MS into AL, as enhanced shear with a southerly low-level jet will likely persist across these areas. There is still some uncertainty with the northern extent of surface-based severe thunderstorm potential here, as convection that develops during the day across LA/MS may slow the northward advance of greater low-level moisture. Still, the 00Z NAM and 03Z RAP show some chance for weak, but sufficient, instability late Friday/early Saturday across central MS/AL. The Slight Risk has accordingly been expanded northward to account for this potential. There was not enough confidence in a more focused corridor of tornado risk to include greater severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are expected to spread eastward from east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States Friday through Friday night. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... A positively tilted upper trough and associated mid/upper-level speed max will advance eastward across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley on Friday. A weak surface low should develop from the southern OK/north TX border vicinity towards the ArkLaTex through the day, while another surface low consolidates across the mid MS Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Rich low-level moisture characterized by mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will attempt to advance northward in tandem with a warm front across east TX into the lower MS Valley through Friday evening. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of east TX/OK. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated large hail as it moves northeastward, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time, the airmass across east TX into LA/AR/MS should gradually destabilize with filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening occurring. Strengthening low-level warm advection and large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough should encourage the development of additional convection along/south of the warm front through Friday afternoon. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. But, convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. A somewhat separate area of severe-hail potential should also exist across parts of eastern OK into AR Friday afternoon along and southeast of a cold front. This region will be in somewhat closer proximity to colder temperatures aloft with the upper trough, and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Assuming sufficient destabilization can occur across this region, ample effective bulk shear (around 45-55 kt) will easily support supercells with an associated threat for large hail and occasional damaging winds. The Slight Risk has been expanded a bit northward in AR and westward in TX/OK to account for this potential. The threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should continue into Friday evening and overnight/early Saturday morning across parts of MS into AL, as enhanced shear with a southerly low-level jet will likely persist across these areas. There is still some uncertainty with the northern extent of surface-based severe thunderstorm potential here, as convection that develops during the day across LA/MS may slow the northward advance of greater low-level moisture. Still, the 00Z NAM and 03Z RAP show some chance for weak, but sufficient, instability late Friday/early Saturday across central MS/AL. The Slight Risk has accordingly been expanded northward to account for this potential. There was not enough confidence in a more focused corridor of tornado risk to include greater severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 03/07/2024 Read more

As crawfish producers struggled to provide many of the crustaceans after a hot, dry summer, Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry issued a disaster declaration for the industry and stated that the shortage affected the state’s economy and also “our way of life.” The Louisiana State University’s Agriculture Center estimated the potential loss to the state’s crawfish industry to be nearly $140 million. One year ago, a pound of boiled crawfish cost between $3 to $5, but restaurants were presently charging $10 to $12 per pound, as reported by The Advocate. The Associated Press, March 6, 2024

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may pose primarily a risk for severe hail and locally strong wind gusts across parts of the southern Great Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... Flow across the mid-latitude Pacific is becoming more amplified and, later today through tonight, models indicate this will include building mid/upper ridging spreading inland across the Pacific coast. Preceding this ridge, while one short wave trough digs near/west of the Sierra Nevada, toward the Southwestern international border, a downstream perturbation is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward out of the Southwest, into the southern Great Plains by early Friday. In the wake of a vigorous short wave trough slowly accelerating from southern Manitoba toward the southern Hudson/James Bay vicinity, a significant cold intrusion is already underway to the lee of the northern Rockies. As this air continues to nose southward through the high plains, modestly deep surface troughing will precede it across the southern Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley, but guidance suggests little in the way of embedded surface cyclogenesis through this period. One evolving wave along a developing frontal zone may shift from the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Oklahoma vicinity into the lower Missouri Valley late this afternoon through tonight. A narrow plume of better low-level moisture return may be ongoing across the lower Rio Grande Valley into the San Angelo/Abilene vicinity by 12Z this morning, before more substantive low-level moisture return commences across the western Gulf/northwestern Gulf coast and coastal plain toward the southeastern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley. Much of the this, however, may take place beneath relative warm layers in the lower/mid-tropospheric and layers further aloft, beneath low-amplitude subtropical ridging. ...Southern Great Plains... Considerable thunderstorm development may be ongoing by 12Z this morning, in response to ascent supported by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, beneath difluent high level flow, from parts of west central/northwest Texas into Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas. Steeper mid/upper level lapse rates supportive of somewhat better potential for severe hail in widely scattered stronger storms probably will be initially focused from the Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity toward the Ozark Plateau. However, as convection across this region becomes more widespread and spreads northeastward, the initial risk for severe hail is expected to wane. There is considerable model output indicating that a more prominent cluster of convection may evolve through late morning into afternoon across parts of west central through north central Texas, perhaps aided by weak perturbation associated with the subtropical jet. This may include a gradually intensifying line, supported by better near-surface moist inflow along the leading (southern and eastern) edge of associated convective outflow, which may eventually pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind. However, this potential may be limited by generally weak lapse rates, particularly as it continues eastward through the day. While convective development to the south may impede better low-level moisture return, a narrow corridor of stronger pre-frontal daytime heating across the Texas Panhandle toward the Wichita, KS vicinity will provide at least one focus for stronger late afternoon into evening thunderstorm development. Beneath the leading edge of stronger mid/upper cooling associated with the troughing emerging from the Southwest, steepening lapse rates will contribute to an environment conducive to potential for at least severe hail, in the presence of sufficient shear for supercells. In the wake of early day convection, an appreciable increase in potential for strong/severe thunderstorm development will await mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling aloft associated with the primary short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest. This may not reach the Edwards Plateau vicinity until mid/late evening, before spreading toward the Interstate 35 corridor of central into northern Texas overnight. But it appears that boundary-layer based instability will probably become supportive of supercells, beneath 60-70+ kt southwesterly mid-level flow. Low-level hodographs may not become particularly large, but some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts may accompany stronger cells, in addition to severe hail. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may pose primarily a risk for severe hail and locally strong wind gusts across parts of the southern Great Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... Flow across the mid-latitude Pacific is becoming more amplified and, later today through tonight, models indicate this will include building mid/upper ridging spreading inland across the Pacific coast. Preceding this ridge, while one short wave trough digs near/west of the Sierra Nevada, toward the Southwestern international border, a downstream perturbation is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward out of the Southwest, into the southern Great Plains by early Friday. In the wake of a vigorous short wave trough slowly accelerating from southern Manitoba toward the southern Hudson/James Bay vicinity, a significant cold intrusion is already underway to the lee of the northern Rockies. As this air continues to nose southward through the high plains, modestly deep surface troughing will precede it across the southern Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley, but guidance suggests little in the way of embedded surface cyclogenesis through this period. One evolving wave along a developing frontal zone may shift from the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Oklahoma vicinity into the lower Missouri Valley late this afternoon through tonight. A narrow plume of better low-level moisture return may be ongoing across the lower Rio Grande Valley into the San Angelo/Abilene vicinity by 12Z this morning, before more substantive low-level moisture return commences across the western Gulf/northwestern Gulf coast and coastal plain toward the southeastern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley. Much of the this, however, may take place beneath relative warm layers in the lower/mid-tropospheric and layers further aloft, beneath low-amplitude subtropical ridging. ...Southern Great Plains... Considerable thunderstorm development may be ongoing by 12Z this morning, in response to ascent supported by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, beneath difluent high level flow, from parts of west central/northwest Texas into Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas. Steeper mid/upper level lapse rates supportive of somewhat better potential for severe hail in widely scattered stronger storms probably will be initially focused from the Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity toward the Ozark Plateau. However, as convection across this region becomes more widespread and spreads northeastward, the initial risk for severe hail is expected to wane. There is considerable model output indicating that a more prominent cluster of convection may evolve through late morning into afternoon across parts of west central through north central Texas, perhaps aided by weak perturbation associated with the subtropical jet. This may include a gradually intensifying line, supported by better near-surface moist inflow along the leading (southern and eastern) edge of associated convective outflow, which may eventually pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind. However, this potential may be limited by generally weak lapse rates, particularly as it continues eastward through the day. While convective development to the south may impede better low-level moisture return, a narrow corridor of stronger pre-frontal daytime heating across the Texas Panhandle toward the Wichita, KS vicinity will provide at least one focus for stronger late afternoon into evening thunderstorm development. Beneath the leading edge of stronger mid/upper cooling associated with the troughing emerging from the Southwest, steepening lapse rates will contribute to an environment conducive to potential for at least severe hail, in the presence of sufficient shear for supercells. In the wake of early day convection, an appreciable increase in potential for strong/severe thunderstorm development will await mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling aloft associated with the primary short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest. This may not reach the Edwards Plateau vicinity until mid/late evening, before spreading toward the Interstate 35 corridor of central into northern Texas overnight. But it appears that boundary-layer based instability will probably become supportive of supercells, beneath 60-70+ kt southwesterly mid-level flow. Low-level hodographs may not become particularly large, but some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts may accompany stronger cells, in addition to severe hail. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may pose primarily a risk for severe hail and locally strong wind gusts across parts of the southern Great Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... Flow across the mid-latitude Pacific is becoming more amplified and, later today through tonight, models indicate this will include building mid/upper ridging spreading inland across the Pacific coast. Preceding this ridge, while one short wave trough digs near/west of the Sierra Nevada, toward the Southwestern international border, a downstream perturbation is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward out of the Southwest, into the southern Great Plains by early Friday. In the wake of a vigorous short wave trough slowly accelerating from southern Manitoba toward the southern Hudson/James Bay vicinity, a significant cold intrusion is already underway to the lee of the northern Rockies. As this air continues to nose southward through the high plains, modestly deep surface troughing will precede it across the southern Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley, but guidance suggests little in the way of embedded surface cyclogenesis through this period. One evolving wave along a developing frontal zone may shift from the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Oklahoma vicinity into the lower Missouri Valley late this afternoon through tonight. A narrow plume of better low-level moisture return may be ongoing across the lower Rio Grande Valley into the San Angelo/Abilene vicinity by 12Z this morning, before more substantive low-level moisture return commences across the western Gulf/northwestern Gulf coast and coastal plain toward the southeastern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley. Much of the this, however, may take place beneath relative warm layers in the lower/mid-tropospheric and layers further aloft, beneath low-amplitude subtropical ridging. ...Southern Great Plains... Considerable thunderstorm development may be ongoing by 12Z this morning, in response to ascent supported by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, beneath difluent high level flow, from parts of west central/northwest Texas into Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas. Steeper mid/upper level lapse rates supportive of somewhat better potential for severe hail in widely scattered stronger storms probably will be initially focused from the Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity toward the Ozark Plateau. However, as convection across this region becomes more widespread and spreads northeastward, the initial risk for severe hail is expected to wane. There is considerable model output indicating that a more prominent cluster of convection may evolve through late morning into afternoon across parts of west central through north central Texas, perhaps aided by weak perturbation associated with the subtropical jet. This may include a gradually intensifying line, supported by better near-surface moist inflow along the leading (southern and eastern) edge of associated convective outflow, which may eventually pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind. However, this potential may be limited by generally weak lapse rates, particularly as it continues eastward through the day. While convective development to the south may impede better low-level moisture return, a narrow corridor of stronger pre-frontal daytime heating across the Texas Panhandle toward the Wichita, KS vicinity will provide at least one focus for stronger late afternoon into evening thunderstorm development. Beneath the leading edge of stronger mid/upper cooling associated with the troughing emerging from the Southwest, steepening lapse rates will contribute to an environment conducive to potential for at least severe hail, in the presence of sufficient shear for supercells. In the wake of early day convection, an appreciable increase in potential for strong/severe thunderstorm development will await mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling aloft associated with the primary short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest. This may not reach the Edwards Plateau vicinity until mid/late evening, before spreading toward the Interstate 35 corridor of central into northern Texas overnight. But it appears that boundary-layer based instability will probably become supportive of supercells, beneath 60-70+ kt southwesterly mid-level flow. Low-level hodographs may not become particularly large, but some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts may accompany stronger cells, in addition to severe hail. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may pose primarily a risk for severe hail and locally strong wind gusts across parts of the southern Great Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... Flow across the mid-latitude Pacific is becoming more amplified and, later today through tonight, models indicate this will include building mid/upper ridging spreading inland across the Pacific coast. Preceding this ridge, while one short wave trough digs near/west of the Sierra Nevada, toward the Southwestern international border, a downstream perturbation is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward out of the Southwest, into the southern Great Plains by early Friday. In the wake of a vigorous short wave trough slowly accelerating from southern Manitoba toward the southern Hudson/James Bay vicinity, a significant cold intrusion is already underway to the lee of the northern Rockies. As this air continues to nose southward through the high plains, modestly deep surface troughing will precede it across the southern Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley, but guidance suggests little in the way of embedded surface cyclogenesis through this period. One evolving wave along a developing frontal zone may shift from the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Oklahoma vicinity into the lower Missouri Valley late this afternoon through tonight. A narrow plume of better low-level moisture return may be ongoing across the lower Rio Grande Valley into the San Angelo/Abilene vicinity by 12Z this morning, before more substantive low-level moisture return commences across the western Gulf/northwestern Gulf coast and coastal plain toward the southeastern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley. Much of the this, however, may take place beneath relative warm layers in the lower/mid-tropospheric and layers further aloft, beneath low-amplitude subtropical ridging. ...Southern Great Plains... Considerable thunderstorm development may be ongoing by 12Z this morning, in response to ascent supported by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, beneath difluent high level flow, from parts of west central/northwest Texas into Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas. Steeper mid/upper level lapse rates supportive of somewhat better potential for severe hail in widely scattered stronger storms probably will be initially focused from the Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity toward the Ozark Plateau. However, as convection across this region becomes more widespread and spreads northeastward, the initial risk for severe hail is expected to wane. There is considerable model output indicating that a more prominent cluster of convection may evolve through late morning into afternoon across parts of west central through north central Texas, perhaps aided by weak perturbation associated with the subtropical jet. This may include a gradually intensifying line, supported by better near-surface moist inflow along the leading (southern and eastern) edge of associated convective outflow, which may eventually pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind. However, this potential may be limited by generally weak lapse rates, particularly as it continues eastward through the day. While convective development to the south may impede better low-level moisture return, a narrow corridor of stronger pre-frontal daytime heating across the Texas Panhandle toward the Wichita, KS vicinity will provide at least one focus for stronger late afternoon into evening thunderstorm development. Beneath the leading edge of stronger mid/upper cooling associated with the troughing emerging from the Southwest, steepening lapse rates will contribute to an environment conducive to potential for at least severe hail, in the presence of sufficient shear for supercells. In the wake of early day convection, an appreciable increase in potential for strong/severe thunderstorm development will await mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling aloft associated with the primary short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest. This may not reach the Edwards Plateau vicinity until mid/late evening, before spreading toward the Interstate 35 corridor of central into northern Texas overnight. But it appears that boundary-layer based instability will probably become supportive of supercells, beneath 60-70+ kt southwesterly mid-level flow. Low-level hodographs may not become particularly large, but some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts may accompany stronger cells, in addition to severe hail. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may pose primarily a risk for severe hail and locally strong wind gusts across parts of the southern Great Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... Flow across the mid-latitude Pacific is becoming more amplified and, later today through tonight, models indicate this will include building mid/upper ridging spreading inland across the Pacific coast. Preceding this ridge, while one short wave trough digs near/west of the Sierra Nevada, toward the Southwestern international border, a downstream perturbation is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward out of the Southwest, into the southern Great Plains by early Friday. In the wake of a vigorous short wave trough slowly accelerating from southern Manitoba toward the southern Hudson/James Bay vicinity, a significant cold intrusion is already underway to the lee of the northern Rockies. As this air continues to nose southward through the high plains, modestly deep surface troughing will precede it across the southern Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley, but guidance suggests little in the way of embedded surface cyclogenesis through this period. One evolving wave along a developing frontal zone may shift from the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Oklahoma vicinity into the lower Missouri Valley late this afternoon through tonight. A narrow plume of better low-level moisture return may be ongoing across the lower Rio Grande Valley into the San Angelo/Abilene vicinity by 12Z this morning, before more substantive low-level moisture return commences across the western Gulf/northwestern Gulf coast and coastal plain toward the southeastern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley. Much of the this, however, may take place beneath relative warm layers in the lower/mid-tropospheric and layers further aloft, beneath low-amplitude subtropical ridging. ...Southern Great Plains... Considerable thunderstorm development may be ongoing by 12Z this morning, in response to ascent supported by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, beneath difluent high level flow, from parts of west central/northwest Texas into Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas. Steeper mid/upper level lapse rates supportive of somewhat better potential for severe hail in widely scattered stronger storms probably will be initially focused from the Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity toward the Ozark Plateau. However, as convection across this region becomes more widespread and spreads northeastward, the initial risk for severe hail is expected to wane. There is considerable model output indicating that a more prominent cluster of convection may evolve through late morning into afternoon across parts of west central through north central Texas, perhaps aided by weak perturbation associated with the subtropical jet. This may include a gradually intensifying line, supported by better near-surface moist inflow along the leading (southern and eastern) edge of associated convective outflow, which may eventually pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind. However, this potential may be limited by generally weak lapse rates, particularly as it continues eastward through the day. While convective development to the south may impede better low-level moisture return, a narrow corridor of stronger pre-frontal daytime heating across the Texas Panhandle toward the Wichita, KS vicinity will provide at least one focus for stronger late afternoon into evening thunderstorm development. Beneath the leading edge of stronger mid/upper cooling associated with the troughing emerging from the Southwest, steepening lapse rates will contribute to an environment conducive to potential for at least severe hail, in the presence of sufficient shear for supercells. In the wake of early day convection, an appreciable increase in potential for strong/severe thunderstorm development will await mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling aloft associated with the primary short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest. This may not reach the Edwards Plateau vicinity until mid/late evening, before spreading toward the Interstate 35 corridor of central into northern Texas overnight. But it appears that boundary-layer based instability will probably become supportive of supercells, beneath 60-70+ kt southwesterly mid-level flow. Low-level hodographs may not become particularly large, but some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts may accompany stronger cells, in addition to severe hail. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are likely to increase overnight across the southern into central Great Plains and portions of the Ozark Plateau, with widely scattered stronger cells posing at least some risk for severe hail. ...01Z Update... A short wave impulse, within negatively-tilted larger-scale mid-level trough now shifting across the southern Atlantic Seaboard, remains fairly vigorous as it progresses east-northeast of the southern Appalachians. Associated forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling appear to have aided a recent increase in thunderstorm development across the South Carolina coastal plain. However, destabilization remains modest, with the onset of diurnal cooling likely to further limit destabilization into the North Carolina coastal plain, as the mid-level perturbation becomes increasingly sheared across the southern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity this evening into the overnight hours. In the wake of the larger-scale scale mid-level troughing, models suggest at least some low-level drying may occur tonight across much of the northern into northwestern Gulf Basin. However, modest low-level moistening which has already occurred inland of the northwestern Gulf coast is forecast to continue to advect northward/northwestward through the southern into central Great Plains and parts of the Ozark Plateau, downstream of large-scale mid-level troughing turning inland of the Pacific coast into the Southwest. Aided by large-scale ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, beneath at least broadly difluent and divergent upper flow, destabilization is forecast to support an increase in thunderstorm activity overnight across a fairly broad area. While models suggest a narrow plume of better low-level moisture return across the lower Rio Grande Valley into the San Angelo/Abilene vicinity by daybreak Thursday, a combination of capping layers below the 700 mb level, and above 500 mb (beneath high-level ridging overspreading the southern Great Plains), might suppress thunderstorm intensities. Still, a relatively cool layer between (including temps around or below -15C) might support thunderstorm activity capable of producing small to marginally severe hail. Model forecast soundings indicate steeper mid/upper lapse rates associated with colder air aloft, supporting the development of larger elevated destabilization, north of the Red River into portions of south central/southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. Coupled with at least modest cloud-bearing layer shear, scattered stronger cells overnight probably will pose at least some risk for severe hail. ..Kerr.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are likely to increase overnight across the southern into central Great Plains and portions of the Ozark Plateau, with widely scattered stronger cells posing at least some risk for severe hail. ...01Z Update... A short wave impulse, within negatively-tilted larger-scale mid-level trough now shifting across the southern Atlantic Seaboard, remains fairly vigorous as it progresses east-northeast of the southern Appalachians. Associated forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling appear to have aided a recent increase in thunderstorm development across the South Carolina coastal plain. However, destabilization remains modest, with the onset of diurnal cooling likely to further limit destabilization into the North Carolina coastal plain, as the mid-level perturbation becomes increasingly sheared across the southern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity this evening into the overnight hours. In the wake of the larger-scale scale mid-level troughing, models suggest at least some low-level drying may occur tonight across much of the northern into northwestern Gulf Basin. However, modest low-level moistening which has already occurred inland of the northwestern Gulf coast is forecast to continue to advect northward/northwestward through the southern into central Great Plains and parts of the Ozark Plateau, downstream of large-scale mid-level troughing turning inland of the Pacific coast into the Southwest. Aided by large-scale ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, beneath at least broadly difluent and divergent upper flow, destabilization is forecast to support an increase in thunderstorm activity overnight across a fairly broad area. While models suggest a narrow plume of better low-level moisture return across the lower Rio Grande Valley into the San Angelo/Abilene vicinity by daybreak Thursday, a combination of capping layers below the 700 mb level, and above 500 mb (beneath high-level ridging overspreading the southern Great Plains), might suppress thunderstorm intensities. Still, a relatively cool layer between (including temps around or below -15C) might support thunderstorm activity capable of producing small to marginally severe hail. Model forecast soundings indicate steeper mid/upper lapse rates associated with colder air aloft, supporting the development of larger elevated destabilization, north of the Red River into portions of south central/southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. Coupled with at least modest cloud-bearing layer shear, scattered stronger cells overnight probably will pose at least some risk for severe hail. ..Kerr.. 03/07/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 6 23:40:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 6 23:40:02 UTC 2024.