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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level trough will amplify across the Southwest into northern Mexico. Moderate mid-level flow ahead of this trough will overspread the southern High Plains. Given the environment in this region will be deeply mixed, some of this stronger mid-level flow should reach the surface with 20+ mph sustained surface winds expected amid single digit relative humidity. Critically dry fuels in this region will support a large fire threat given the meteorological conditions. ..Bentley.. 04/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level trough will amplify across the Southwest into northern Mexico. Moderate mid-level flow ahead of this trough will overspread the southern High Plains. Given the environment in this region will be deeply mixed, some of this stronger mid-level flow should reach the surface with 20+ mph sustained surface winds expected amid single digit relative humidity. Critically dry fuels in this region will support a large fire threat given the meteorological conditions. ..Bentley.. 04/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A strong surface low across central Nebraska will weaken as it moves east today. Despite the weakening, a strong pressure gradient is expected across much of the Plains and into the southern High Plains. In addition, a deeply mixed atmosphere is expected beneath strong mid-level flow. Therefore, 20 to 25 mph winds are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. An extended period of dry and windy conditions in the southern High Plains has dried fuels substantially in this region. As a result, large fires will be possible today. ..Bentley.. 04/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A strong surface low across central Nebraska will weaken as it moves east today. Despite the weakening, a strong pressure gradient is expected across much of the Plains and into the southern High Plains. In addition, a deeply mixed atmosphere is expected beneath strong mid-level flow. Therefore, 20 to 25 mph winds are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. An extended period of dry and windy conditions in the southern High Plains has dried fuels substantially in this region. As a result, large fires will be possible today. ..Bentley.. 04/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A strong surface low across central Nebraska will weaken as it moves east today. Despite the weakening, a strong pressure gradient is expected across much of the Plains and into the southern High Plains. In addition, a deeply mixed atmosphere is expected beneath strong mid-level flow. Therefore, 20 to 25 mph winds are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. An extended period of dry and windy conditions in the southern High Plains has dried fuels substantially in this region. As a result, large fires will be possible today. ..Bentley.. 04/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A strong surface low across central Nebraska will weaken as it moves east today. Despite the weakening, a strong pressure gradient is expected across much of the Plains and into the southern High Plains. In addition, a deeply mixed atmosphere is expected beneath strong mid-level flow. Therefore, 20 to 25 mph winds are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. An extended period of dry and windy conditions in the southern High Plains has dried fuels substantially in this region. As a result, large fires will be possible today. ..Bentley.. 04/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of Texas, into south Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and west Louisiana. A few tornadoes, scattered large to very large hail, and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper low will drift east-northeast across the Upper Midwest while a separate shortwave trough digs over the Southwest before pivoting along the border with northwest Mexico. Low-level warm theta-e advection will persist across much of the South-Central States through the period. The primary low-level jet will be centered from the northwest Gulf across east TX into the Ark-La-Tex and Ark-La-Miss. Mid-level height falls attendant to the Southwest trough will increase across the west TX vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...Southern Great Plains... Strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection from the northwest Gulf should yield increasing thunderstorm coverage by early afternoon, along the northeast periphery of an intensifying elevated mixed layer across west/central TX. Guidance does differ with how far west and south this initial convection will develop into central TX, but a favorable environment for at least a few supercells should evolve from near the I-35 corridor across a portion of east TX. The impinging of steep mid-level lapse rates and very fast upper-level flow will foster an elongated hodograph within the largest portion of the buoyancy profile. This will support a threat for very large hail, generally favored along the southwest part of the overall convective plume as a cluster convective mode dominates with northern extent. Low-level hodograph curvature will also be sufficient for a tornado threat, especially towards early evening as winds slowly increase. Separate areas of convective development should be focused closer to the dryline in west TX and its intersection with the effective warm front/surface trough into southwest OK during the evening, and in another round during the early morning Tuesday. Convective development is most probable in the early evening over the northwest TX to southwest OK vicinity, with less confidence southward in west TX. This development will be high based initially along the fringe of the moisture return. Outflow-dominated supercells will be capable of producing large to very large hail and isolated severe gusts. MUCAPE values within the warm-moist sector that remains convectively undisturbed should build through the period as mid-level lapse rates become very steep (around 9 C/km) across west TX and moist advection continues to surge west-northwest. Guidance differs on the degree of overnight development as mid-level height falls increase late. The 00Z ECMWF remains consistent with prior runs in developing convection across west TX by 12Z Tuesday, which now has support of the 00Z HRW-FV3. The strongly sheared and very steep lapse rate environment will yield a primary threat of very large hail in any sustained supercells. ..Grams.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of Texas, into south Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and west Louisiana. A few tornadoes, scattered large to very large hail, and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper low will drift east-northeast across the Upper Midwest while a separate shortwave trough digs over the Southwest before pivoting along the border with northwest Mexico. Low-level warm theta-e advection will persist across much of the South-Central States through the period. The primary low-level jet will be centered from the northwest Gulf across east TX into the Ark-La-Tex and Ark-La-Miss. Mid-level height falls attendant to the Southwest trough will increase across the west TX vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...Southern Great Plains... Strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection from the northwest Gulf should yield increasing thunderstorm coverage by early afternoon, along the northeast periphery of an intensifying elevated mixed layer across west/central TX. Guidance does differ with how far west and south this initial convection will develop into central TX, but a favorable environment for at least a few supercells should evolve from near the I-35 corridor across a portion of east TX. The impinging of steep mid-level lapse rates and very fast upper-level flow will foster an elongated hodograph within the largest portion of the buoyancy profile. This will support a threat for very large hail, generally favored along the southwest part of the overall convective plume as a cluster convective mode dominates with northern extent. Low-level hodograph curvature will also be sufficient for a tornado threat, especially towards early evening as winds slowly increase. Separate areas of convective development should be focused closer to the dryline in west TX and its intersection with the effective warm front/surface trough into southwest OK during the evening, and in another round during the early morning Tuesday. Convective development is most probable in the early evening over the northwest TX to southwest OK vicinity, with less confidence southward in west TX. This development will be high based initially along the fringe of the moisture return. Outflow-dominated supercells will be capable of producing large to very large hail and isolated severe gusts. MUCAPE values within the warm-moist sector that remains convectively undisturbed should build through the period as mid-level lapse rates become very steep (around 9 C/km) across west TX and moist advection continues to surge west-northwest. Guidance differs on the degree of overnight development as mid-level height falls increase late. The 00Z ECMWF remains consistent with prior runs in developing convection across west TX by 12Z Tuesday, which now has support of the 00Z HRW-FV3. The strongly sheared and very steep lapse rate environment will yield a primary threat of very large hail in any sustained supercells. ..Grams.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of Texas, into south Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and west Louisiana. A few tornadoes, scattered large to very large hail, and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper low will drift east-northeast across the Upper Midwest while a separate shortwave trough digs over the Southwest before pivoting along the border with northwest Mexico. Low-level warm theta-e advection will persist across much of the South-Central States through the period. The primary low-level jet will be centered from the northwest Gulf across east TX into the Ark-La-Tex and Ark-La-Miss. Mid-level height falls attendant to the Southwest trough will increase across the west TX vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...Southern Great Plains... Strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection from the northwest Gulf should yield increasing thunderstorm coverage by early afternoon, along the northeast periphery of an intensifying elevated mixed layer across west/central TX. Guidance does differ with how far west and south this initial convection will develop into central TX, but a favorable environment for at least a few supercells should evolve from near the I-35 corridor across a portion of east TX. The impinging of steep mid-level lapse rates and very fast upper-level flow will foster an elongated hodograph within the largest portion of the buoyancy profile. This will support a threat for very large hail, generally favored along the southwest part of the overall convective plume as a cluster convective mode dominates with northern extent. Low-level hodograph curvature will also be sufficient for a tornado threat, especially towards early evening as winds slowly increase. Separate areas of convective development should be focused closer to the dryline in west TX and its intersection with the effective warm front/surface trough into southwest OK during the evening, and in another round during the early morning Tuesday. Convective development is most probable in the early evening over the northwest TX to southwest OK vicinity, with less confidence southward in west TX. This development will be high based initially along the fringe of the moisture return. Outflow-dominated supercells will be capable of producing large to very large hail and isolated severe gusts. MUCAPE values within the warm-moist sector that remains convectively undisturbed should build through the period as mid-level lapse rates become very steep (around 9 C/km) across west TX and moist advection continues to surge west-northwest. Guidance differs on the degree of overnight development as mid-level height falls increase late. The 00Z ECMWF remains consistent with prior runs in developing convection across west TX by 12Z Tuesday, which now has support of the 00Z HRW-FV3. The strongly sheared and very steep lapse rate environment will yield a primary threat of very large hail in any sustained supercells. ..Grams.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of Texas, into south Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and west Louisiana. A few tornadoes, scattered large to very large hail, and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper low will drift east-northeast across the Upper Midwest while a separate shortwave trough digs over the Southwest before pivoting along the border with northwest Mexico. Low-level warm theta-e advection will persist across much of the South-Central States through the period. The primary low-level jet will be centered from the northwest Gulf across east TX into the Ark-La-Tex and Ark-La-Miss. Mid-level height falls attendant to the Southwest trough will increase across the west TX vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...Southern Great Plains... Strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection from the northwest Gulf should yield increasing thunderstorm coverage by early afternoon, along the northeast periphery of an intensifying elevated mixed layer across west/central TX. Guidance does differ with how far west and south this initial convection will develop into central TX, but a favorable environment for at least a few supercells should evolve from near the I-35 corridor across a portion of east TX. The impinging of steep mid-level lapse rates and very fast upper-level flow will foster an elongated hodograph within the largest portion of the buoyancy profile. This will support a threat for very large hail, generally favored along the southwest part of the overall convective plume as a cluster convective mode dominates with northern extent. Low-level hodograph curvature will also be sufficient for a tornado threat, especially towards early evening as winds slowly increase. Separate areas of convective development should be focused closer to the dryline in west TX and its intersection with the effective warm front/surface trough into southwest OK during the evening, and in another round during the early morning Tuesday. Convective development is most probable in the early evening over the northwest TX to southwest OK vicinity, with less confidence southward in west TX. This development will be high based initially along the fringe of the moisture return. Outflow-dominated supercells will be capable of producing large to very large hail and isolated severe gusts. MUCAPE values within the warm-moist sector that remains convectively undisturbed should build through the period as mid-level lapse rates become very steep (around 9 C/km) across west TX and moist advection continues to surge west-northwest. Guidance differs on the degree of overnight development as mid-level height falls increase late. The 00Z ECMWF remains consistent with prior runs in developing convection across west TX by 12Z Tuesday, which now has support of the 00Z HRW-FV3. The strongly sheared and very steep lapse rate environment will yield a primary threat of very large hail in any sustained supercells. ..Grams.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening from parts of far east Texas into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level cyclone initially centered over the Nebraska Sand Hills vicinity is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward through the day. A related surface low will also gradually weaken as it moves from eastern NE toward northwest/north-central IA. A trailing front will move eastward across parts of the mid MS Valley into the ArkLaTex region. ...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley vicinity... Low-level moistening in advance of the cold front will allow for weak to moderate destabilization across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley, with MLCAPE generally increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range this afternoon. Moderately strong midlevel flow will support effective shear of 45-55 kt, resulting in a conditionally favorable supercell environment. However, with stronger large-scale ascent displaced to the north of the better instability, and only weak to modest midlevel lapse rates expected regionwide, storm coverage and intensity will likely be limited to some extent. While it may take some time for storms to mature, a couple of supercells could evolve by late afternoon into early evening across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley, with more isolated development eventually possible into far east TX and western LA. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient for a tornado or two, if mature supercells can be sustained. Otherwise, isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms, before the threat wanes by late evening. ...Iowa/northern MO... Low-topped convection may develop this afternoon along an occluded front that will extend across parts of IA into northern MO/western IL. Guidance varies regarding the extent of diurnal heating and destabilization near this front. If sufficient heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates can occur, then there could be a nonzero threat for a brief tornado where vorticity is maximized near the boundary. Confidence in this scenario remains too low to include probabilities at this time. ..Dean/Bentley.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening from parts of far east Texas into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level cyclone initially centered over the Nebraska Sand Hills vicinity is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward through the day. A related surface low will also gradually weaken as it moves from eastern NE toward northwest/north-central IA. A trailing front will move eastward across parts of the mid MS Valley into the ArkLaTex region. ...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley vicinity... Low-level moistening in advance of the cold front will allow for weak to moderate destabilization across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley, with MLCAPE generally increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range this afternoon. Moderately strong midlevel flow will support effective shear of 45-55 kt, resulting in a conditionally favorable supercell environment. However, with stronger large-scale ascent displaced to the north of the better instability, and only weak to modest midlevel lapse rates expected regionwide, storm coverage and intensity will likely be limited to some extent. While it may take some time for storms to mature, a couple of supercells could evolve by late afternoon into early evening across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley, with more isolated development eventually possible into far east TX and western LA. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient for a tornado or two, if mature supercells can be sustained. Otherwise, isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms, before the threat wanes by late evening. ...Iowa/northern MO... Low-topped convection may develop this afternoon along an occluded front that will extend across parts of IA into northern MO/western IL. Guidance varies regarding the extent of diurnal heating and destabilization near this front. If sufficient heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates can occur, then there could be a nonzero threat for a brief tornado where vorticity is maximized near the boundary. Confidence in this scenario remains too low to include probabilities at this time. ..Dean/Bentley.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening from parts of far east Texas into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level cyclone initially centered over the Nebraska Sand Hills vicinity is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward through the day. A related surface low will also gradually weaken as it moves from eastern NE toward northwest/north-central IA. A trailing front will move eastward across parts of the mid MS Valley into the ArkLaTex region. ...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley vicinity... Low-level moistening in advance of the cold front will allow for weak to moderate destabilization across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley, with MLCAPE generally increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range this afternoon. Moderately strong midlevel flow will support effective shear of 45-55 kt, resulting in a conditionally favorable supercell environment. However, with stronger large-scale ascent displaced to the north of the better instability, and only weak to modest midlevel lapse rates expected regionwide, storm coverage and intensity will likely be limited to some extent. While it may take some time for storms to mature, a couple of supercells could evolve by late afternoon into early evening across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley, with more isolated development eventually possible into far east TX and western LA. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient for a tornado or two, if mature supercells can be sustained. Otherwise, isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms, before the threat wanes by late evening. ...Iowa/northern MO... Low-topped convection may develop this afternoon along an occluded front that will extend across parts of IA into northern MO/western IL. Guidance varies regarding the extent of diurnal heating and destabilization near this front. If sufficient heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates can occur, then there could be a nonzero threat for a brief tornado where vorticity is maximized near the boundary. Confidence in this scenario remains too low to include probabilities at this time. ..Dean/Bentley.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening from parts of far east Texas into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level cyclone initially centered over the Nebraska Sand Hills vicinity is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward through the day. A related surface low will also gradually weaken as it moves from eastern NE toward northwest/north-central IA. A trailing front will move eastward across parts of the mid MS Valley into the ArkLaTex region. ...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley vicinity... Low-level moistening in advance of the cold front will allow for weak to moderate destabilization across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley, with MLCAPE generally increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range this afternoon. Moderately strong midlevel flow will support effective shear of 45-55 kt, resulting in a conditionally favorable supercell environment. However, with stronger large-scale ascent displaced to the north of the better instability, and only weak to modest midlevel lapse rates expected regionwide, storm coverage and intensity will likely be limited to some extent. While it may take some time for storms to mature, a couple of supercells could evolve by late afternoon into early evening across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley, with more isolated development eventually possible into far east TX and western LA. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient for a tornado or two, if mature supercells can be sustained. Otherwise, isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms, before the threat wanes by late evening. ...Iowa/northern MO... Low-topped convection may develop this afternoon along an occluded front that will extend across parts of IA into northern MO/western IL. Guidance varies regarding the extent of diurnal heating and destabilization near this front. If sufficient heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates can occur, then there could be a nonzero threat for a brief tornado where vorticity is maximized near the boundary. Confidence in this scenario remains too low to include probabilities at this time. ..Dean/Bentley.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of strong to locally severe gusts remain possible this evening across parts of the central and southern Plains. ...Central/southern Plains... Convection has gradually diminished across parts of the central/southern Plains this evening, as already limited instability continues to diminish. However, some potential for localized severe gusts may persist for a few hours this evening with the strongest storms, given the very strong wind fields in place. Any remaining threat should wane later tonight as ongoing convection continues to weaken. ..Dean.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of strong to locally severe gusts remain possible this evening across parts of the central and southern Plains. ...Central/southern Plains... Convection has gradually diminished across parts of the central/southern Plains this evening, as already limited instability continues to diminish. However, some potential for localized severe gusts may persist for a few hours this evening with the strongest storms, given the very strong wind fields in place. Any remaining threat should wane later tonight as ongoing convection continues to weaken. ..Dean.. 04/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of strong to locally severe gusts remain possible this evening across parts of the central and southern Plains. ...Central/southern Plains... Convection has gradually diminished across parts of the central/southern Plains this evening, as already limited instability continues to diminish. However, some potential for localized severe gusts may persist for a few hours this evening with the strongest storms, given the very strong wind fields in place. Any remaining threat should wane later tonight as ongoing convection continues to weaken. ..Dean.. 04/07/2024 Read more

WW 0089 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PNC TO 40 W EMP TO 10 NW MHK TO 20 WSW BIE TO 15 W OLU. ..LYONS..04/07/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-017-019-035-049-061-073-111-117-127-149-161-197-070140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GEARY GREENWOOD LYON MARSHALL MORRIS POTTAWATOMIE RILEY WABAUNSEE NEC023-067-095-109-151-159-070140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER GAGE JEFFERSON LANCASTER SALINE SEWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0089 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PNC TO 40 W EMP TO 10 NW MHK TO 20 WSW BIE TO 15 W OLU. ..LYONS..04/07/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-017-019-035-049-061-073-111-117-127-149-161-197-070140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GEARY GREENWOOD LYON MARSHALL MORRIS POTTAWATOMIE RILEY WABAUNSEE NEC023-067-095-109-151-159-070140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER GAGE JEFFERSON LANCASTER SALINE SEWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 89 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 062005Z - 070200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 89 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Kansas Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to further develop and intensify across north-central/east-central Kansas through mid-afternoon, and move into other parts of eastern/southeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska by late afternoon and early evening. Severe-caliber wind gusts should be the most common risk, but some hail is possible and a brief tornado could also occur, even with modest moisture. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Grand Island NE to 55 miles southeast of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 88... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22040. ...Guyer Read more