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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley... An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon. Some additional heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk. Farther southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV over western LA and convective overturning from overnight thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped across southeast TX. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning. Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail, damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this afternoon. In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal cooling and spreading outflow air. ...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity... As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A plume of richer low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a north-south oriented warm front over western PA. Continued heating will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of scattered thunderstorms. Modest low to mid-level flow will limit overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is possible. Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 05/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent surface observations and trends in high-res ensemble guidance. Conditions are currently rather benign across much of the risk area with sub-15 mph winds and RH above 30% due to lingering cloud cover. However, a dry air mass over central/southern AZ will spread northeast through the afternoon with increasing winds as surface pressure continues to fall across the central Rockies. The onset of elevated/critical fire weather conditions may be as early as 18 UTC along the AZ/NM border, with widespread elevated/critical conditions likely by 20 UTC. Regional VWPs are sampling 30-40 mph winds within the lowest 2 km, which should manifest at the surface as frequent wind gusts by late afternoon amid deep diurnal mixing. This appears most probable across southern NM where cloud cover should be minimal. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire-weather conditions are expected later today across portions of the Desert Southwest, particularly from central/western NM into extreme southeastern AZ. Sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph and relative humidities approaching the single digits are forecast across the region, collocated with fuels supporting fire spread. These conditions will be present throughout the afternoon and evening across the delineated Critical and Elevated areas. The meteorological setup will be strongly influenced by a potent upper-level trough moving eastward toward the Desert Southwest today. The associated surface cyclone -- expected to deepen in the northern Rockies -- will yield strong westerly surface flow across AZ/NM. Despite some possible upper-level cloud cover, deep boundary-layer mixing and drying are anticipated. Surface relative humidities around 10-15 percent, and perhaps in the single digits in some locations, are expected by mid-afternoon. These dry and windy conditions are anticipated across a region with fuels supporting large-fire spread (e.g., ERCs generally around 70 percent or greater, increasing with southward extent). These critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated from mid-afternoon until sunset, particularly from around Albuquerque south-southwest to the Chiricahua Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent surface observations and trends in high-res ensemble guidance. Conditions are currently rather benign across much of the risk area with sub-15 mph winds and RH above 30% due to lingering cloud cover. However, a dry air mass over central/southern AZ will spread northeast through the afternoon with increasing winds as surface pressure continues to fall across the central Rockies. The onset of elevated/critical fire weather conditions may be as early as 18 UTC along the AZ/NM border, with widespread elevated/critical conditions likely by 20 UTC. Regional VWPs are sampling 30-40 mph winds within the lowest 2 km, which should manifest at the surface as frequent wind gusts by late afternoon amid deep diurnal mixing. This appears most probable across southern NM where cloud cover should be minimal. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire-weather conditions are expected later today across portions of the Desert Southwest, particularly from central/western NM into extreme southeastern AZ. Sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph and relative humidities approaching the single digits are forecast across the region, collocated with fuels supporting fire spread. These conditions will be present throughout the afternoon and evening across the delineated Critical and Elevated areas. The meteorological setup will be strongly influenced by a potent upper-level trough moving eastward toward the Desert Southwest today. The associated surface cyclone -- expected to deepen in the northern Rockies -- will yield strong westerly surface flow across AZ/NM. Despite some possible upper-level cloud cover, deep boundary-layer mixing and drying are anticipated. Surface relative humidities around 10-15 percent, and perhaps in the single digits in some locations, are expected by mid-afternoon. These dry and windy conditions are anticipated across a region with fuels supporting large-fire spread (e.g., ERCs generally around 70 percent or greater, increasing with southward extent). These critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated from mid-afternoon until sunset, particularly from around Albuquerque south-southwest to the Chiricahua Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent surface observations and trends in high-res ensemble guidance. Conditions are currently rather benign across much of the risk area with sub-15 mph winds and RH above 30% due to lingering cloud cover. However, a dry air mass over central/southern AZ will spread northeast through the afternoon with increasing winds as surface pressure continues to fall across the central Rockies. The onset of elevated/critical fire weather conditions may be as early as 18 UTC along the AZ/NM border, with widespread elevated/critical conditions likely by 20 UTC. Regional VWPs are sampling 30-40 mph winds within the lowest 2 km, which should manifest at the surface as frequent wind gusts by late afternoon amid deep diurnal mixing. This appears most probable across southern NM where cloud cover should be minimal. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire-weather conditions are expected later today across portions of the Desert Southwest, particularly from central/western NM into extreme southeastern AZ. Sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph and relative humidities approaching the single digits are forecast across the region, collocated with fuels supporting fire spread. These conditions will be present throughout the afternoon and evening across the delineated Critical and Elevated areas. The meteorological setup will be strongly influenced by a potent upper-level trough moving eastward toward the Desert Southwest today. The associated surface cyclone -- expected to deepen in the northern Rockies -- will yield strong westerly surface flow across AZ/NM. Despite some possible upper-level cloud cover, deep boundary-layer mixing and drying are anticipated. Surface relative humidities around 10-15 percent, and perhaps in the single digits in some locations, are expected by mid-afternoon. These dry and windy conditions are anticipated across a region with fuels supporting large-fire spread (e.g., ERCs generally around 70 percent or greater, increasing with southward extent). These critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated from mid-afternoon until sunset, particularly from around Albuquerque south-southwest to the Chiricahua Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent surface observations and trends in high-res ensemble guidance. Conditions are currently rather benign across much of the risk area with sub-15 mph winds and RH above 30% due to lingering cloud cover. However, a dry air mass over central/southern AZ will spread northeast through the afternoon with increasing winds as surface pressure continues to fall across the central Rockies. The onset of elevated/critical fire weather conditions may be as early as 18 UTC along the AZ/NM border, with widespread elevated/critical conditions likely by 20 UTC. Regional VWPs are sampling 30-40 mph winds within the lowest 2 km, which should manifest at the surface as frequent wind gusts by late afternoon amid deep diurnal mixing. This appears most probable across southern NM where cloud cover should be minimal. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire-weather conditions are expected later today across portions of the Desert Southwest, particularly from central/western NM into extreme southeastern AZ. Sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph and relative humidities approaching the single digits are forecast across the region, collocated with fuels supporting fire spread. These conditions will be present throughout the afternoon and evening across the delineated Critical and Elevated areas. The meteorological setup will be strongly influenced by a potent upper-level trough moving eastward toward the Desert Southwest today. The associated surface cyclone -- expected to deepen in the northern Rockies -- will yield strong westerly surface flow across AZ/NM. Despite some possible upper-level cloud cover, deep boundary-layer mixing and drying are anticipated. Surface relative humidities around 10-15 percent, and perhaps in the single digits in some locations, are expected by mid-afternoon. These dry and windy conditions are anticipated across a region with fuels supporting large-fire spread (e.g., ERCs generally around 70 percent or greater, increasing with southward extent). These critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated from mid-afternoon until sunset, particularly from around Albuquerque south-southwest to the Chiricahua Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent surface observations and trends in high-res ensemble guidance. Conditions are currently rather benign across much of the risk area with sub-15 mph winds and RH above 30% due to lingering cloud cover. However, a dry air mass over central/southern AZ will spread northeast through the afternoon with increasing winds as surface pressure continues to fall across the central Rockies. The onset of elevated/critical fire weather conditions may be as early as 18 UTC along the AZ/NM border, with widespread elevated/critical conditions likely by 20 UTC. Regional VWPs are sampling 30-40 mph winds within the lowest 2 km, which should manifest at the surface as frequent wind gusts by late afternoon amid deep diurnal mixing. This appears most probable across southern NM where cloud cover should be minimal. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire-weather conditions are expected later today across portions of the Desert Southwest, particularly from central/western NM into extreme southeastern AZ. Sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph and relative humidities approaching the single digits are forecast across the region, collocated with fuels supporting fire spread. These conditions will be present throughout the afternoon and evening across the delineated Critical and Elevated areas. The meteorological setup will be strongly influenced by a potent upper-level trough moving eastward toward the Desert Southwest today. The associated surface cyclone -- expected to deepen in the northern Rockies -- will yield strong westerly surface flow across AZ/NM. Despite some possible upper-level cloud cover, deep boundary-layer mixing and drying are anticipated. Surface relative humidities around 10-15 percent, and perhaps in the single digits in some locations, are expected by mid-afternoon. These dry and windy conditions are anticipated across a region with fuels supporting large-fire spread (e.g., ERCs generally around 70 percent or greater, increasing with southward extent). These critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated from mid-afternoon until sunset, particularly from around Albuquerque south-southwest to the Chiricahua Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent surface observations and trends in high-res ensemble guidance. Conditions are currently rather benign across much of the risk area with sub-15 mph winds and RH above 30% due to lingering cloud cover. However, a dry air mass over central/southern AZ will spread northeast through the afternoon with increasing winds as surface pressure continues to fall across the central Rockies. The onset of elevated/critical fire weather conditions may be as early as 18 UTC along the AZ/NM border, with widespread elevated/critical conditions likely by 20 UTC. Regional VWPs are sampling 30-40 mph winds within the lowest 2 km, which should manifest at the surface as frequent wind gusts by late afternoon amid deep diurnal mixing. This appears most probable across southern NM where cloud cover should be minimal. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire-weather conditions are expected later today across portions of the Desert Southwest, particularly from central/western NM into extreme southeastern AZ. Sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph and relative humidities approaching the single digits are forecast across the region, collocated with fuels supporting fire spread. These conditions will be present throughout the afternoon and evening across the delineated Critical and Elevated areas. The meteorological setup will be strongly influenced by a potent upper-level trough moving eastward toward the Desert Southwest today. The associated surface cyclone -- expected to deepen in the northern Rockies -- will yield strong westerly surface flow across AZ/NM. Despite some possible upper-level cloud cover, deep boundary-layer mixing and drying are anticipated. Surface relative humidities around 10-15 percent, and perhaps in the single digits in some locations, are expected by mid-afternoon. These dry and windy conditions are anticipated across a region with fuels supporting large-fire spread (e.g., ERCs generally around 70 percent or greater, increasing with southward extent). These critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated from mid-afternoon until sunset, particularly from around Albuquerque south-southwest to the Chiricahua Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent surface observations and trends in high-res ensemble guidance. Conditions are currently rather benign across much of the risk area with sub-15 mph winds and RH above 30% due to lingering cloud cover. However, a dry air mass over central/southern AZ will spread northeast through the afternoon with increasing winds as surface pressure continues to fall across the central Rockies. The onset of elevated/critical fire weather conditions may be as early as 18 UTC along the AZ/NM border, with widespread elevated/critical conditions likely by 20 UTC. Regional VWPs are sampling 30-40 mph winds within the lowest 2 km, which should manifest at the surface as frequent wind gusts by late afternoon amid deep diurnal mixing. This appears most probable across southern NM where cloud cover should be minimal. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire-weather conditions are expected later today across portions of the Desert Southwest, particularly from central/western NM into extreme southeastern AZ. Sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph and relative humidities approaching the single digits are forecast across the region, collocated with fuels supporting fire spread. These conditions will be present throughout the afternoon and evening across the delineated Critical and Elevated areas. The meteorological setup will be strongly influenced by a potent upper-level trough moving eastward toward the Desert Southwest today. The associated surface cyclone -- expected to deepen in the northern Rockies -- will yield strong westerly surface flow across AZ/NM. Despite some possible upper-level cloud cover, deep boundary-layer mixing and drying are anticipated. Surface relative humidities around 10-15 percent, and perhaps in the single digits in some locations, are expected by mid-afternoon. These dry and windy conditions are anticipated across a region with fuels supporting large-fire spread (e.g., ERCs generally around 70 percent or greater, increasing with southward extent). These critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated from mid-afternoon until sunset, particularly from around Albuquerque south-southwest to the Chiricahua Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent surface observations and trends in high-res ensemble guidance. Conditions are currently rather benign across much of the risk area with sub-15 mph winds and RH above 30% due to lingering cloud cover. However, a dry air mass over central/southern AZ will spread northeast through the afternoon with increasing winds as surface pressure continues to fall across the central Rockies. The onset of elevated/critical fire weather conditions may be as early as 18 UTC along the AZ/NM border, with widespread elevated/critical conditions likely by 20 UTC. Regional VWPs are sampling 30-40 mph winds within the lowest 2 km, which should manifest at the surface as frequent wind gusts by late afternoon amid deep diurnal mixing. This appears most probable across southern NM where cloud cover should be minimal. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire-weather conditions are expected later today across portions of the Desert Southwest, particularly from central/western NM into extreme southeastern AZ. Sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph and relative humidities approaching the single digits are forecast across the region, collocated with fuels supporting fire spread. These conditions will be present throughout the afternoon and evening across the delineated Critical and Elevated areas. The meteorological setup will be strongly influenced by a potent upper-level trough moving eastward toward the Desert Southwest today. The associated surface cyclone -- expected to deepen in the northern Rockies -- will yield strong westerly surface flow across AZ/NM. Despite some possible upper-level cloud cover, deep boundary-layer mixing and drying are anticipated. Surface relative humidities around 10-15 percent, and perhaps in the single digits in some locations, are expected by mid-afternoon. These dry and windy conditions are anticipated across a region with fuels supporting large-fire spread (e.g., ERCs generally around 70 percent or greater, increasing with southward extent). These critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated from mid-afternoon until sunset, particularly from around Albuquerque south-southwest to the Chiricahua Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more