Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... After a cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential across the CONUS should remain minimal from Day 4/Sunday through Day 5/Monday. Medium-range deterministic and ensemble guidance shows reasonable agreement that an upper trough will move over the western states and perhaps become a closed upper low over the Southwest by the middle of next week. Depending on the quality of low-level moisture return across the southern/central Plains ahead of this feature, some severe threat may eventually develop across these areas. Too much uncertainty currently exists regarding the evolution of the upper trough and related surface features to include a 15% severe area for either Day 7/Wednesday or Day 8/Thursday, but trends will be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... After a cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential across the CONUS should remain minimal from Day 4/Sunday through Day 5/Monday. Medium-range deterministic and ensemble guidance shows reasonable agreement that an upper trough will move over the western states and perhaps become a closed upper low over the Southwest by the middle of next week. Depending on the quality of low-level moisture return across the southern/central Plains ahead of this feature, some severe threat may eventually develop across these areas. Too much uncertainty currently exists regarding the evolution of the upper trough and related surface features to include a 15% severe area for either Day 7/Wednesday or Day 8/Thursday, but trends will be monitored. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both tornadoes and damaging winds appear possible Saturday across parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas. ...Southeast into the Carolinas... An upper trough with 80-100 kt mid-level speed max will move quickly northeastward across the eastern CONUS on Saturday. With the southern-stream portion of this troughing likely to phase with the northern stream, a more amplified upper trough should eventually evolve. At the surface, the primary low should also develop northeastward across the OH Valley/Midwest, while a secondary low may also form and gradually deepen along the spine of the southern/central Appalachians through the day. At least mid 60s surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly northward across parts of GA/SC/NC ahead of a cold front. Strong to severe thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of AL into the FL Panhandle and western GA. This activity should spread quickly east-northeastward through the day in tandem with the destabilizing warm sector. Even though mid-level lapse rates should remain fairly poor, just modest diurnal heating should allow for weak instability to develop and maintain robust updraft intensity. Strong (40-50 kt) south-southwesterly low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm motions, along with potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds with any clusters/bowing line segments that can form/persist. There should also be some potential for supercells given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related low/ deep-layer shear. Related threat for tornadoes should continue from Saturday morning through at least early Saturday evening from GA into the Carolinas wherever convection can remain surface based. Given tendency in most guidance to show appreciable inland destabilization and greater low-level moisture farther north into SC/NC, the 15% severe area and corresponding Slight Risk have been expanded northward into these areas. ..Gleason.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both tornadoes and damaging winds appear possible Saturday across parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas. ...Southeast into the Carolinas... An upper trough with 80-100 kt mid-level speed max will move quickly northeastward across the eastern CONUS on Saturday. With the southern-stream portion of this troughing likely to phase with the northern stream, a more amplified upper trough should eventually evolve. At the surface, the primary low should also develop northeastward across the OH Valley/Midwest, while a secondary low may also form and gradually deepen along the spine of the southern/central Appalachians through the day. At least mid 60s surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly northward across parts of GA/SC/NC ahead of a cold front. Strong to severe thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of AL into the FL Panhandle and western GA. This activity should spread quickly east-northeastward through the day in tandem with the destabilizing warm sector. Even though mid-level lapse rates should remain fairly poor, just modest diurnal heating should allow for weak instability to develop and maintain robust updraft intensity. Strong (40-50 kt) south-southwesterly low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm motions, along with potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds with any clusters/bowing line segments that can form/persist. There should also be some potential for supercells given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related low/ deep-layer shear. Related threat for tornadoes should continue from Saturday morning through at least early Saturday evening from GA into the Carolinas wherever convection can remain surface based. Given tendency in most guidance to show appreciable inland destabilization and greater low-level moisture farther north into SC/NC, the 15% severe area and corresponding Slight Risk have been expanded northward into these areas. ..Gleason.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both tornadoes and damaging winds appear possible Saturday across parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas. ...Southeast into the Carolinas... An upper trough with 80-100 kt mid-level speed max will move quickly northeastward across the eastern CONUS on Saturday. With the southern-stream portion of this troughing likely to phase with the northern stream, a more amplified upper trough should eventually evolve. At the surface, the primary low should also develop northeastward across the OH Valley/Midwest, while a secondary low may also form and gradually deepen along the spine of the southern/central Appalachians through the day. At least mid 60s surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly northward across parts of GA/SC/NC ahead of a cold front. Strong to severe thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of AL into the FL Panhandle and western GA. This activity should spread quickly east-northeastward through the day in tandem with the destabilizing warm sector. Even though mid-level lapse rates should remain fairly poor, just modest diurnal heating should allow for weak instability to develop and maintain robust updraft intensity. Strong (40-50 kt) south-southwesterly low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm motions, along with potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds with any clusters/bowing line segments that can form/persist. There should also be some potential for supercells given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related low/ deep-layer shear. Related threat for tornadoes should continue from Saturday morning through at least early Saturday evening from GA into the Carolinas wherever convection can remain surface based. Given tendency in most guidance to show appreciable inland destabilization and greater low-level moisture farther north into SC/NC, the 15% severe area and corresponding Slight Risk have been expanded northward into these areas. ..Gleason.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both tornadoes and damaging winds appear possible Saturday across parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas. ...Southeast into the Carolinas... An upper trough with 80-100 kt mid-level speed max will move quickly northeastward across the eastern CONUS on Saturday. With the southern-stream portion of this troughing likely to phase with the northern stream, a more amplified upper trough should eventually evolve. At the surface, the primary low should also develop northeastward across the OH Valley/Midwest, while a secondary low may also form and gradually deepen along the spine of the southern/central Appalachians through the day. At least mid 60s surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly northward across parts of GA/SC/NC ahead of a cold front. Strong to severe thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of AL into the FL Panhandle and western GA. This activity should spread quickly east-northeastward through the day in tandem with the destabilizing warm sector. Even though mid-level lapse rates should remain fairly poor, just modest diurnal heating should allow for weak instability to develop and maintain robust updraft intensity. Strong (40-50 kt) south-southwesterly low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm motions, along with potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds with any clusters/bowing line segments that can form/persist. There should also be some potential for supercells given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related low/ deep-layer shear. Related threat for tornadoes should continue from Saturday morning through at least early Saturday evening from GA into the Carolinas wherever convection can remain surface based. Given tendency in most guidance to show appreciable inland destabilization and greater low-level moisture farther north into SC/NC, the 15% severe area and corresponding Slight Risk have been expanded northward into these areas. ..Gleason.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both tornadoes and damaging winds appear possible Saturday across parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas. ...Southeast into the Carolinas... An upper trough with 80-100 kt mid-level speed max will move quickly northeastward across the eastern CONUS on Saturday. With the southern-stream portion of this troughing likely to phase with the northern stream, a more amplified upper trough should eventually evolve. At the surface, the primary low should also develop northeastward across the OH Valley/Midwest, while a secondary low may also form and gradually deepen along the spine of the southern/central Appalachians through the day. At least mid 60s surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly northward across parts of GA/SC/NC ahead of a cold front. Strong to severe thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of AL into the FL Panhandle and western GA. This activity should spread quickly east-northeastward through the day in tandem with the destabilizing warm sector. Even though mid-level lapse rates should remain fairly poor, just modest diurnal heating should allow for weak instability to develop and maintain robust updraft intensity. Strong (40-50 kt) south-southwesterly low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm motions, along with potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds with any clusters/bowing line segments that can form/persist. There should also be some potential for supercells given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related low/ deep-layer shear. Related threat for tornadoes should continue from Saturday morning through at least early Saturday evening from GA into the Carolinas wherever convection can remain surface based. Given tendency in most guidance to show appreciable inland destabilization and greater low-level moisture farther north into SC/NC, the 15% severe area and corresponding Slight Risk have been expanded northward into these areas. ..Gleason.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move eastward from the Rockies into the MS Valley through the period, while a belt of strong low/midlevel west-southwesterly flow persists from northern MX across south/central TX. At the same time, a related surface cyclone will continue east-northeastward from northeast TX into the OH Valley. On the backside of the departing surface cyclone, a modest pressure gradient and strong downslope flow will contribute to warm, dry, and breezy conditions along the Rio Grande during the afternoon. The overlap of 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move eastward from the Rockies into the MS Valley through the period, while a belt of strong low/midlevel west-southwesterly flow persists from northern MX across south/central TX. At the same time, a related surface cyclone will continue east-northeastward from northeast TX into the OH Valley. On the backside of the departing surface cyclone, a modest pressure gradient and strong downslope flow will contribute to warm, dry, and breezy conditions along the Rio Grande during the afternoon. The overlap of 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move eastward from the Rockies into the MS Valley through the period, while a belt of strong low/midlevel west-southwesterly flow persists from northern MX across south/central TX. At the same time, a related surface cyclone will continue east-northeastward from northeast TX into the OH Valley. On the backside of the departing surface cyclone, a modest pressure gradient and strong downslope flow will contribute to warm, dry, and breezy conditions along the Rio Grande during the afternoon. The overlap of 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move eastward from the Rockies into the MS Valley through the period, while a belt of strong low/midlevel west-southwesterly flow persists from northern MX across south/central TX. At the same time, a related surface cyclone will continue east-northeastward from northeast TX into the OH Valley. On the backside of the departing surface cyclone, a modest pressure gradient and strong downslope flow will contribute to warm, dry, and breezy conditions along the Rio Grande during the afternoon. The overlap of 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen over the TX Panhandle, while a dryline extends southward across parts of west/central TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer -- extending up to around 4 km AGL. This will support lower 70s surface temperatures and 12-15 percent minimum RH over much of the southern High Plains. Here, a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, coupled with strong flow through the depth of the boundary layer, will yield 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). The best overlap of the strong/gusty winds and low RH is expected over parts of eastern NM into West TX, where critical fire-weather conditions are expected, given receptive fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen over the TX Panhandle, while a dryline extends southward across parts of west/central TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer -- extending up to around 4 km AGL. This will support lower 70s surface temperatures and 12-15 percent minimum RH over much of the southern High Plains. Here, a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, coupled with strong flow through the depth of the boundary layer, will yield 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). The best overlap of the strong/gusty winds and low RH is expected over parts of eastern NM into West TX, where critical fire-weather conditions are expected, given receptive fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen over the TX Panhandle, while a dryline extends southward across parts of west/central TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer -- extending up to around 4 km AGL. This will support lower 70s surface temperatures and 12-15 percent minimum RH over much of the southern High Plains. Here, a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, coupled with strong flow through the depth of the boundary layer, will yield 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). The best overlap of the strong/gusty winds and low RH is expected over parts of eastern NM into West TX, where critical fire-weather conditions are expected, given receptive fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen over the TX Panhandle, while a dryline extends southward across parts of west/central TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer -- extending up to around 4 km AGL. This will support lower 70s surface temperatures and 12-15 percent minimum RH over much of the southern High Plains. Here, a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, coupled with strong flow through the depth of the boundary layer, will yield 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). The best overlap of the strong/gusty winds and low RH is expected over parts of eastern NM into West TX, where critical fire-weather conditions are expected, given receptive fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are expected to spread eastward from east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States Friday through Friday night. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... A positively tilted upper trough and associated mid/upper-level speed max will advance eastward across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley on Friday. A weak surface low should develop from the southern OK/north TX border vicinity towards the ArkLaTex through the day, while another surface low consolidates across the mid MS Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Rich low-level moisture characterized by mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will attempt to advance northward in tandem with a warm front across east TX into the lower MS Valley through Friday evening. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of east TX/OK. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated large hail as it moves northeastward, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time, the airmass across east TX into LA/AR/MS should gradually destabilize with filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening occurring. Strengthening low-level warm advection and large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough should encourage the development of additional convection along/south of the warm front through Friday afternoon. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. But, convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. A somewhat separate area of severe-hail potential should also exist across parts of eastern OK into AR Friday afternoon along and southeast of a cold front. This region will be in somewhat closer proximity to colder temperatures aloft with the upper trough, and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Assuming sufficient destabilization can occur across this region, ample effective bulk shear (around 45-55 kt) will easily support supercells with an associated threat for large hail and occasional damaging winds. The Slight Risk has been expanded a bit northward in AR and westward in TX/OK to account for this potential. The threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should continue into Friday evening and overnight/early Saturday morning across parts of MS into AL, as enhanced shear with a southerly low-level jet will likely persist across these areas. There is still some uncertainty with the northern extent of surface-based severe thunderstorm potential here, as convection that develops during the day across LA/MS may slow the northward advance of greater low-level moisture. Still, the 00Z NAM and 03Z RAP show some chance for weak, but sufficient, instability late Friday/early Saturday across central MS/AL. The Slight Risk has accordingly been expanded northward to account for this potential. There was not enough confidence in a more focused corridor of tornado risk to include greater severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are expected to spread eastward from east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States Friday through Friday night. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... A positively tilted upper trough and associated mid/upper-level speed max will advance eastward across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley on Friday. A weak surface low should develop from the southern OK/north TX border vicinity towards the ArkLaTex through the day, while another surface low consolidates across the mid MS Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Rich low-level moisture characterized by mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will attempt to advance northward in tandem with a warm front across east TX into the lower MS Valley through Friday evening. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of east TX/OK. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated large hail as it moves northeastward, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time, the airmass across east TX into LA/AR/MS should gradually destabilize with filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening occurring. Strengthening low-level warm advection and large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough should encourage the development of additional convection along/south of the warm front through Friday afternoon. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. But, convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. A somewhat separate area of severe-hail potential should also exist across parts of eastern OK into AR Friday afternoon along and southeast of a cold front. This region will be in somewhat closer proximity to colder temperatures aloft with the upper trough, and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Assuming sufficient destabilization can occur across this region, ample effective bulk shear (around 45-55 kt) will easily support supercells with an associated threat for large hail and occasional damaging winds. The Slight Risk has been expanded a bit northward in AR and westward in TX/OK to account for this potential. The threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should continue into Friday evening and overnight/early Saturday morning across parts of MS into AL, as enhanced shear with a southerly low-level jet will likely persist across these areas. There is still some uncertainty with the northern extent of surface-based severe thunderstorm potential here, as convection that develops during the day across LA/MS may slow the northward advance of greater low-level moisture. Still, the 00Z NAM and 03Z RAP show some chance for weak, but sufficient, instability late Friday/early Saturday across central MS/AL. The Slight Risk has accordingly been expanded northward to account for this potential. There was not enough confidence in a more focused corridor of tornado risk to include greater severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are expected to spread eastward from east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States Friday through Friday night. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... A positively tilted upper trough and associated mid/upper-level speed max will advance eastward across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley on Friday. A weak surface low should develop from the southern OK/north TX border vicinity towards the ArkLaTex through the day, while another surface low consolidates across the mid MS Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Rich low-level moisture characterized by mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will attempt to advance northward in tandem with a warm front across east TX into the lower MS Valley through Friday evening. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of east TX/OK. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated large hail as it moves northeastward, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time, the airmass across east TX into LA/AR/MS should gradually destabilize with filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening occurring. Strengthening low-level warm advection and large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough should encourage the development of additional convection along/south of the warm front through Friday afternoon. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. But, convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. A somewhat separate area of severe-hail potential should also exist across parts of eastern OK into AR Friday afternoon along and southeast of a cold front. This region will be in somewhat closer proximity to colder temperatures aloft with the upper trough, and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Assuming sufficient destabilization can occur across this region, ample effective bulk shear (around 45-55 kt) will easily support supercells with an associated threat for large hail and occasional damaging winds. The Slight Risk has been expanded a bit northward in AR and westward in TX/OK to account for this potential. The threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should continue into Friday evening and overnight/early Saturday morning across parts of MS into AL, as enhanced shear with a southerly low-level jet will likely persist across these areas. There is still some uncertainty with the northern extent of surface-based severe thunderstorm potential here, as convection that develops during the day across LA/MS may slow the northward advance of greater low-level moisture. Still, the 00Z NAM and 03Z RAP show some chance for weak, but sufficient, instability late Friday/early Saturday across central MS/AL. The Slight Risk has accordingly been expanded northward to account for this potential. There was not enough confidence in a more focused corridor of tornado risk to include greater severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are expected to spread eastward from east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States Friday through Friday night. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... A positively tilted upper trough and associated mid/upper-level speed max will advance eastward across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley on Friday. A weak surface low should develop from the southern OK/north TX border vicinity towards the ArkLaTex through the day, while another surface low consolidates across the mid MS Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Rich low-level moisture characterized by mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will attempt to advance northward in tandem with a warm front across east TX into the lower MS Valley through Friday evening. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of east TX/OK. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated large hail as it moves northeastward, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time, the airmass across east TX into LA/AR/MS should gradually destabilize with filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening occurring. Strengthening low-level warm advection and large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough should encourage the development of additional convection along/south of the warm front through Friday afternoon. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. But, convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. A somewhat separate area of severe-hail potential should also exist across parts of eastern OK into AR Friday afternoon along and southeast of a cold front. This region will be in somewhat closer proximity to colder temperatures aloft with the upper trough, and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Assuming sufficient destabilization can occur across this region, ample effective bulk shear (around 45-55 kt) will easily support supercells with an associated threat for large hail and occasional damaging winds. The Slight Risk has been expanded a bit northward in AR and westward in TX/OK to account for this potential. The threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should continue into Friday evening and overnight/early Saturday morning across parts of MS into AL, as enhanced shear with a southerly low-level jet will likely persist across these areas. There is still some uncertainty with the northern extent of surface-based severe thunderstorm potential here, as convection that develops during the day across LA/MS may slow the northward advance of greater low-level moisture. Still, the 00Z NAM and 03Z RAP show some chance for weak, but sufficient, instability late Friday/early Saturday across central MS/AL. The Slight Risk has accordingly been expanded northward to account for this potential. There was not enough confidence in a more focused corridor of tornado risk to include greater severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are expected to spread eastward from east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States Friday through Friday night. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... A positively tilted upper trough and associated mid/upper-level speed max will advance eastward across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley on Friday. A weak surface low should develop from the southern OK/north TX border vicinity towards the ArkLaTex through the day, while another surface low consolidates across the mid MS Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Rich low-level moisture characterized by mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will attempt to advance northward in tandem with a warm front across east TX into the lower MS Valley through Friday evening. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of east TX/OK. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated large hail as it moves northeastward, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time, the airmass across east TX into LA/AR/MS should gradually destabilize with filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening occurring. Strengthening low-level warm advection and large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough should encourage the development of additional convection along/south of the warm front through Friday afternoon. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. But, convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. A somewhat separate area of severe-hail potential should also exist across parts of eastern OK into AR Friday afternoon along and southeast of a cold front. This region will be in somewhat closer proximity to colder temperatures aloft with the upper trough, and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Assuming sufficient destabilization can occur across this region, ample effective bulk shear (around 45-55 kt) will easily support supercells with an associated threat for large hail and occasional damaging winds. The Slight Risk has been expanded a bit northward in AR and westward in TX/OK to account for this potential. The threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should continue into Friday evening and overnight/early Saturday morning across parts of MS into AL, as enhanced shear with a southerly low-level jet will likely persist across these areas. There is still some uncertainty with the northern extent of surface-based severe thunderstorm potential here, as convection that develops during the day across LA/MS may slow the northward advance of greater low-level moisture. Still, the 00Z NAM and 03Z RAP show some chance for weak, but sufficient, instability late Friday/early Saturday across central MS/AL. The Slight Risk has accordingly been expanded northward to account for this potential. There was not enough confidence in a more focused corridor of tornado risk to include greater severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 03/07/2024 Read more