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MD 0247 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 44... FOR SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0247 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0823 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...Southwest into central Ohio Concerning...Tornado Watch 44... Valid 150123Z - 150230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 44 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado risk will be maximized in central into parts of southwestern Ohio with storms that can persist despite a weakening thermodynamic environment. DISCUSSION...Supercell storms in west-central/central Ohio continue southeastward. Increasing CINH has begun to have an effect as these storms have become slightly more disorganized in the last 30 minutes. Surface winds in the vicinity of Columbus remain backed and the TCMH VAD profile shows ample low-level hodograph curvature. The main question will be how organized storms will be as they encounter the remaining favorable environment. Large to very large hail and tornadoes will continue to be a threat so long as storms can persist over the next 1-2 hours. ..Wendt.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...ILN...IND... LAT...LON 39828503 40138495 40508321 40318263 39958240 39608259 39258324 39398444 39828503 Read more

MD 0248 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 45... FOR CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0248 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0831 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...Central Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 45... Valid 150131Z - 150230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45 continues. SUMMARY...A strong tornado will be possible in the vicinity of western Little Rock over the next hour. DISCUSSION...Low-level flow as increased over the last hour across central Arkansas. 0-1 km storm-relative helicity on the WSR-88D VWP at Little Rock has increased from near 150 m2/s2 to about 225 m2/s2. This increase in low-level shear will continue to support a tornado threat. The storm to the west of Little Rock in the area around Hot Springs has had a history of tornadoes. As this storm moves east-northeastward, the storm-scale environment could support the development of a strong tornado in the vicinity of western Little Rock over the next 60 minutes. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK... LAT...LON 34799183 34639228 34489325 34839342 35139256 35199193 35009172 34799183 Read more

MD 0246 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 45...46... FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...Northeast Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...46... Valid 150027Z - 150230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45, 46 continues. SUMMARY...All severe hazards, including large hail, wind damage and a potential for a few tornadoes are expected over the next couple hours from southeast Oklahoma into northeast Texas east-northeastward into central Arkansas. DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells are currently ongoing from the vicinity of the Red River north of Dallas, east-northeastward into southwest Arkansas. The storms are located just to the north and west of a pocket of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is near or above 2500 J/kg. The cluster of strong to severe storms will continue to move eastward into the stronger instability over the next couple of hours. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear, will help sustain the stronger updrafts making large hail likely with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of updrafts. In addition, low-level shear is forecast to gradually increase, as a 40 knot jet develops across the Ark-La-Tex early this evening. In response, the tornado threat may continue. The WOFS currently is forecasting a locally greater tornado risk from Little Rock extending west-southwestward to near the Oklahoma-Arkansas state line over the next couple of hours. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35379388 35239546 34919623 34189659 33459663 33229639 33289579 33429447 33689296 33949204 34509149 35049140 35419208 35379388 Read more

WW 0048 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 48 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 48 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-019-031-059-067-111-115-119-121-127-157-150240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON MONROE MORGAN MUSKINGUM NOBLE PERRY TUSCARAWAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0245 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 43...44... FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0245 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...Southern Illinois into central/southern Indiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 43...44... Valid 150020Z - 150145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 43, 44 continues. SUMMARY...All severe hazards remain possible. The tornado threat will be conditional on storms remaining discrete. With time, damaging winds and isolated large hail will become the primary hazards. DISCUSSION...Storm mode has become less discrete over the last couple of hours. However, supercell structures remain in southern Illinois. Locally backed surface winds in southern Illinois will promote a slightly greater tornado risk in that area ahead of the supercells. The tornado threat will be generally conditional on maintaining a discrete storm mode. Otherwise, with time, damaging winds will likely become the primary threat. Large hail would still be possible, but would be more isolated given the less favorable storm mode expected. ..Wendt.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38418986 39508767 39928685 40018626 39738588 39248569 38588632 38038753 37968869 38048947 38418986 Read more

WW 0044 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HUF TO 20 ENE IND TO 40 NNE DAY TO 25 SSE MFD. ..SQUITIERI..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...LMK...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC005-013-027-029-031-037-041-047-055-059-065-071-079-081-083- 093-101-105-109-117-119-137-139-145-153-161-177-150240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DUBOIS FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HANCOCK HENRY JACKSON JENNINGS JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE MORGAN ORANGE OWEN RIPLEY RUSH SHELBY SULLIVAN UNION WAYNE OHC017-021-023-027-037-041-045-047-049-057-061-073-075-083-089- 097-103-109-113-129-133-135-141-151-153-159-165-169-150240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLINTON DARKE DELAWARE Read more

WW 0043 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 43 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE MDH TO 20 NE SLO TO 15 SSE HUF. ..SQUITIERI..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...ILX...PAH...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 43 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC071-150240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON ILC025-033-047-101-159-185-191-150240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAWFORD EDWARDS LAWRENCE RICHLAND WABASH WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0043 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 43 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE MDH TO 20 NE SLO TO 15 SSE HUF. ..SQUITIERI..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...ILX...PAH...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 43 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC071-150240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON ILC025-033-047-101-159-185-191-150240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAWFORD EDWARDS LAWRENCE RICHLAND WABASH WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0043 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 43 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE MDH TO 20 NE SLO TO 15 SSE HUF. ..SQUITIERI..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...ILX...PAH...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 43 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC071-150240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON ILC025-033-047-101-159-185-191-150240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAWFORD EDWARDS LAWRENCE RICHLAND WABASH WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0043 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 43 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE MDH TO 20 NE SLO TO 15 SSE HUF. ..SQUITIERI..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...ILX...PAH...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 43 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC071-150240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON ILC025-033-047-101-159-185-191-150240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAWFORD EDWARDS LAWRENCE RICHLAND WABASH WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0043 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 43 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE MDH TO 20 NE SLO TO 15 SSE HUF. ..SQUITIERI..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...ILX...PAH...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 43 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC071-150240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON ILC025-033-047-101-159-185-191-150240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAWFORD EDWARDS LAWRENCE RICHLAND WABASH WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0043 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 43 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE MDH TO 20 NE SLO TO 15 SSE HUF. ..SQUITIERI..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...ILX...PAH...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 43 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC071-150240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON ILC025-033-047-101-159-185-191-150240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAWFORD EDWARDS LAWRENCE RICHLAND WABASH WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 43 TORNADO AR IL KS MO 141830Z - 150200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 43 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of northwestern Arkansas central and southern Illinois far southeastern Kansas southern/central/eastern Missouri * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms will develop across/spread into Missouri and northwestern Arkansas over the next one to two hours, expanding eastward across Illinois with time. Along with potential for tornadoes, very large hail is expected. Locally damaging winds will also be possible, particularly as storms become more clustered later this afternoon and this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south southwest of Joplin MO to 10 miles east of Mattoon IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 41...WW 42... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Goss Read more

WW 0047 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ARG TO 35 ESE POF TO 20 NE MDH. ..SQUITIERI..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-055-093-111-150240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD GREENE MISSISSIPPI POINSETT ILC059-065-069-087-127-151-153-165-193-150240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE WHITE INC051-125-129-147-163-173-150240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GIBSON PIKE POSEY Read more

WW 0047 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ARG TO 35 ESE POF TO 20 NE MDH. ..SQUITIERI..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-055-093-111-150240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD GREENE MISSISSIPPI POINSETT ILC059-065-069-087-127-151-153-165-193-150240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE WHITE INC051-125-129-147-163-173-150240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GIBSON PIKE POSEY Read more

WW 0045 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 45 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC013-019-023-027-029-039-045-051-053-057-059-061-063-067-073- 075-081-083-085-091-097-099-103-105-109-113-115-119-125-127-133- 137-139-141-145-149-150240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE JACKSON LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEVIER STONE UNION VAN BUREN WHITE YELL OKC089-150240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0046 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 46 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W MWL TO 40 W GYI TO 35 SW MLC TO 25 S MKO TO 25 SSE FYV. ..SQUITIERI..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 46 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-047-131-150240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN SEBASTIAN OKC005-013-023-061-069-077-079-095-121-127-135-150240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW HASKELL JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE MARSHALL PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH TXC035-085-093-097-113-119-121-133-139-143-147-181-193-213-217- 221-223-231-251-257-277-333-349-363-367-379-397-425-439-467-497- 150240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0243 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 45...46... FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...Far Southwest Arkansas...Northeast Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...46... Valid 142328Z - 150130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45, 46 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail and wind damage, will continue this evening from southeast Oklahoma into parts of northeast Texas. The threat should eventually affect far southwest Arkansas. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Fort Smith, Arkansas shows several supercells and multiple short bowing segments across southeast Oklahoma, with isolated storms developing across northeast Texas. These storms are located ahead of a cold front in a moist airmass, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km is located across much of the area. This thermodynamic environment combined with moderate deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of storms may be capable of producing hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As cell coverage increases this evening, an organized line segment with wind-damage potential could also develop. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 31969581 32159534 32459480 33069428 33679406 34639404 35039431 35229496 35219562 34939638 34609674 34189697 33419724 32759727 32239708 31959648 31969581 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Large damaging hail, wind gusts, and a few tornadoes remain a threat from far northeast Texas to the Ohio Valley. ...01z Update... An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection continues this evening from northeast TX/AR into the OH Valley. Negligible height changes are expected along this corridor the rest of the period; although, several weak transient short-wave troughs will affect this region through 12z. One noteworthy short wave has encouraged a significant MCS over southeast MO/southern IL. An MCV may be evolving near STL which will track across southern IL into the OH Valley later tonight. Radar trends exhibit a narrow swath of scattered supercells extending downstream ahead of the larger MCS across central IN into central OH. This activity has longevity and will likely spread a bit farther east than earlier indicated. Given these trends, will extend severe probs across eastern OH into western PA to account for these supercells maintaining intensity into an otherwise weaker instability regime. Much stronger instability resides across central TX into central AR early this evening. Numerous supercells have evolved from the north central TX, across southeast OK into central AR. Most of these storms are producing large hail, some in excess of 2" in diameter. 00z sounding from LZK exhibits SBCAPE around 2500 J/kg with substantial deep-layer shear and adequate 0-3km SRH. In addition to large hail, tornadoes remain a risk with these organized supercells. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Large damaging hail, wind gusts, and a few tornadoes remain a threat from far northeast Texas to the Ohio Valley. ...01z Update... An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection continues this evening from northeast TX/AR into the OH Valley. Negligible height changes are expected along this corridor the rest of the period; although, several weak transient short-wave troughs will affect this region through 12z. One noteworthy short wave has encouraged a significant MCS over southeast MO/southern IL. An MCV may be evolving near STL which will track across southern IL into the OH Valley later tonight. Radar trends exhibit a narrow swath of scattered supercells extending downstream ahead of the larger MCS across central IN into central OH. This activity has longevity and will likely spread a bit farther east than earlier indicated. Given these trends, will extend severe probs across eastern OH into western PA to account for these supercells maintaining intensity into an otherwise weaker instability regime. Much stronger instability resides across central TX into central AR early this evening. Numerous supercells have evolved from the north central TX, across southeast OK into central AR. Most of these storms are producing large hail, some in excess of 2" in diameter. 00z sounding from LZK exhibits SBCAPE around 2500 J/kg with substantial deep-layer shear and adequate 0-3km SRH. In addition to large hail, tornadoes remain a risk with these organized supercells. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2024 Read more