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MD 0243 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 45...46... FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...Far Southwest Arkansas...Northeast Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...46... Valid 142328Z - 150130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45, 46 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail and wind damage, will continue this evening from southeast Oklahoma into parts of northeast Texas. The threat should eventually affect far southwest Arkansas. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Fort Smith, Arkansas shows several supercells and multiple short bowing segments across southeast Oklahoma, with isolated storms developing across northeast Texas. These storms are located ahead of a cold front in a moist airmass, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km is located across much of the area. This thermodynamic environment combined with moderate deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of storms may be capable of producing hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As cell coverage increases this evening, an organized line segment with wind-damage potential could also develop. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 31969581 32159534 32459480 33069428 33679406 34639404 35039431 35229496 35219562 34939638 34609674 34189697 33419724 32759727 32239708 31959648 31969581 Read more

MD 0240 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 44... FOR CENTRAL INDIANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0240 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0528 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...Central Indiana into west-central Ohio Concerning...Tornado Watch 44... Valid 142228Z - 150000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 44 continues. SUMMARY...Large/very-large hail will remain the primary threat with ongoing storms. The tornado threat may increase early this evening conditional on storms remaining discrete. DISCUSSION...Storm coverage has continued to increase in central Indiana into west-central Ohio. These discrete storms will continue to be capable of large/very-large (1.5-2.5 in.) hail given the strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates. Low-level shear is not overly strong as surface flow remains rather veered. However, there is an expected increase in the low-level jet within the mid/upper Ohio Valley this evening. This 850 mb flow will also be veered, but storms that can remain discrete into the early evening may pose an increased risk of a tornado. ..Wendt.. 03/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40048734 40678692 41168419 40958300 40378308 40138324 39678503 39468670 39558720 40048734 Read more

MD 0241 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 43...45... FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0241 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 43...45... Valid 142231Z - 150030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 43, 45 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue across southeast Missouri and Arkansas. Wind damage, large hail and an isolated tornado threat is expected over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Springfield, Missouri shows a well-developed line segment extending southward across south-central Missouri and north-central Arkansas. An intense bowing segment is located at the northern end of the line across Dent, Shannon, and Howell Counties. This feature will move eastward across southeastern Missouri over the next hour. The forward speed of the bow was measured at 47 knots, suggesting that wind damage will be likely along the leading edge. Further south into northern and western Arkansas, a cluster of strong to severe storms is ongoing. As convective coverage increases over the next hour, organization into a line will be possible. If a cold pool can develop, another bowing segment with wind damage potential would be possible. Large hail, and an isolated tornado threat may also develop with discrete storms that obtain supercell structure, and along the leading edge of any organized bow. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 34299438 33959394 33899336 34069261 34969079 35968982 36888947 37528965 37729036 37769108 37759156 37599196 37029225 36539259 36119314 35709410 35189443 34729449 34299438 Read more

WW 0044 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S DNV TO 40 WNW MIE TO 5 NNE FDY TO 25 W CLE. ..SQUITIERI..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...LMK...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-005-011-013-021-023-027-029-031-035-037-041-047-055-057- 059-063-065-071-075-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-107-109-117- 119-121-133-135-137-139-145-153-159-161-165-167-177-150040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BARTHOLOMEW BOONE BROWN CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DELAWARE DUBOIS FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY JACKSON JAY JENNINGS JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MARTIN MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN ORANGE OWEN PARKE PUTNAM RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH SHELBY SULLIVAN TIPTON UNION VERMILLION VIGO WAYNE OHC003-011-017-021-023-027-033-037-041-043-045-047-049-057-061- Read more

WW 44 TORNADO IN OH 142115Z - 150400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 44 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 415 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of much of Indiana western and central Ohio * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 415 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorm development is expected over the next couple of hours across much of Indiana, and spreading into western Ohio thereafter. Along with large hail and locally damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes will also be possible into this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Terre Haute IN to 35 miles north northeast of Columbus OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 42...WW 43... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Goss Read more

WW 0047 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 47 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-055-093-111-150040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD GREENE MISSISSIPPI POINSETT ILC003-059-065-069-087-127-151-153-165-181-193-199-150040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WHITE WILLIAMSON INC051-125-129-147-163-173-150040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GIBSON PIKE POSEY Read more

WW 47 TORNADO AR IL IN KY MO TN 142225Z - 150500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 47 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Arkansas Southern Illinois Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri Northwest Tennessee * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of thunderstorms over southern Missouri will track eastward through the late afternoon and evening, posing a risk of damaging winds gusts and hail. A few tornadoes are also possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north northwest of Walnut Ridge AR to 15 miles east southeast of Owensboro KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 42...WW 43...WW 44...WW 45...WW 46... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Hart Read more

WW 0045 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 45 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC013-019-023-027-029-039-045-051-053-057-059-061-063-065-067- 073-075-081-083-085-091-097-099-103-105-109-113-115-119-121-125- 127-133-135-137-139-141-145-149-150040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SCOTT SEVIER SHARP STONE UNION VAN BUREN WHITE YELL OKC089-150040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 45 TORNADO AR OK TX 142150Z - 150500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 45 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Southwest Arkansas Southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 450 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the afternoon and evening, with a few supercells expected. Very large hail is expected to be the primary risk, but a few tornadoes are also possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles northeast of Flippin AR to 30 miles south of Texarkana AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 42...WW 43...WW 44... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0046 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 46 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE SPS TO 15 SSW ADM TO 25 W MKO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0243 ..SQUITIERI..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 46 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-047-131-150040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN SEBASTIAN OKC005-013-023-029-061-063-069-077-079-091-095-101-121-123-127- 135-150040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW COAL HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH MARSHALL MUSKOGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH TXC035-085-093-097-113-119-121-133-139-143-147-181-193-213-217- Read more

WW 46 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 142210Z - 150500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 46 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Central Arkansas Southeast Oklahoma North Central Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 510 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop and track across the watch area through the late afternoon and evening hours, posing a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles southeast of Stephenville TX to 45 miles west northwest of Fort Smith AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 42...WW 43...WW 44...WW 45... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

MD 0239 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 43... FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0239 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...Portions of east-central Missouri into central/southern Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 43... Valid 142209Z - 142345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 43 continues. SUMMARY...The greatest risk for very large hail and tornadoes in the next 1-2 hours will be in southern Illinois. Intense storms near the cold front will eventually be overtaken by the front and undergo a weakening trend. DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercell storms continues east/southeast of the St. Louis area. A secondary cluster is also ongoing near the cold front in west-central/central Illinois. An area of locally backed surface winds is evident in surface observations ahead of the more southern cluster of supercells. Despite only modest low-level shear, this area will pose the greatest risk for tornadoes in the next hour or two. These storms will also pose a risk of 2-3 inch hail. Farther north near the cold front, the threat for tornadoes should be less. Large/very-large hail will continue to be a threat given favorable deep-layer shear and storm mode. With the cold front also beginning to make southward progress, the duration of the severe threat may be more short-lived farther north. Buoyancy will decrease behind the front and is not expected to support strong/severe elevated storms. ..Wendt.. 03/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38029022 38279047 39079072 39379078 39829006 40228821 39918770 38628794 38108902 38029022 Read more

WW 0043 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 43 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE UNO TO 45 SW FAM TO 25 ESE VIH TO 30 W JEF TO 30 NNW STL TO 20 ESE CMI. ..SQUITIERI..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...ILX...PAH...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 43 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC049-071-087-101-129-150040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FULTON JOHNSON MADISON NEWTON SEARCY ILC005-013-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-047-049-051- 055-077-079-081-083-101-115-117-119-121-133-135-139-145-147-157- 159-163-173-183-185-189-191-150040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON JERSEY LAWRENCE MACON MACOUPIN MADISON Read more

WW 43 TORNADO AR IL KS MO 141830Z - 150200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 43 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of northwestern Arkansas central and southern Illinois far southeastern Kansas southern/central/eastern Missouri * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms will develop across/spread into Missouri and northwestern Arkansas over the next one to two hours, expanding eastward across Illinois with time. Along with potential for tornadoes, very large hail is expected. Locally damaging winds will also be possible, particularly as storms become more clustered later this afternoon and this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south southwest of Joplin MO to 10 miles east of Mattoon IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 41...WW 42... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Goss Read more

WW 0045 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE FYV TO 10 W FLP TO 20 NNE FLP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0241 ..SQUITIERI..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC013-019-023-027-029-039-045-051-053-057-059-061-063-065-067- 073-075-081-083-085-091-097-099-103-105-109-113-115-119-121-125- 127-133-135-137-139-141-145-149-142340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SCOTT SEVIER SHARP STONE UNION VAN BUREN WHITE YELL OKC089-142340- Read more

WW 0043 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 43 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW FYV TO 15 NNW FLP TO 25 NNW UNO TO 15 SE TBN TO 25 ESE SZL TO 20 WNW DNV. ..SQUITIERI..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...ILX...PAH...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 43 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-049-071-087-089-101-129-143-142340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER FULTON JOHNSON MADISON MARION NEWTON SEARCY WASHINGTON ILC005-013-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-047-049-051- 055-061-077-079-081-083-101-115-117-119-121-133-135-139-145-147- 157-159-163-173-183-185-189-191-142340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON JERSEY Read more

WW 0044 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 44 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...LMK...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-027-029-031-035-041- 045-047-053-055-057-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-081-083-093- 095-097-101-103-105-107-109-117-119-121-133-135-137-139-145-153- 157-159-161-165-167-169-171-177-179-181-142340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BARTHOLOMEW BLACKFORD BOONE BROWN CARROLL CASS CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DELAWARE FAYETTE FOUNTAIN FRANKLIN GRANT GREENE HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY HOWARD HUNTINGTON JACKSON JAY JENNINGS JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MARTIN MIAMI MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN ORANGE OWEN PARKE PUTNAM RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH SHELBY SULLIVAN TIPPECANOE TIPTON UNION VERMILLION VIGO WABASH WARREN Read more

WW 0047 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0047 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0236 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO AND FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0236 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...portions of Indiana and western Ohio and far southern Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 142036Z - 142230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Afternoon satellite imagery shows rapid air mass recovery is ongoing across parts of IN and western OH. New storm development over north-central IL may expand eastward into IN and OH/MI, though this is uncertain. Supercells with all hazards are possible and a new WW is possible in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Across parts of IN and OH the air mass in the wake of an early day MCS is rapidly recovering. With ample diurnal heating, surface temperatures have warmed into the low 70s F with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F. Several modified outflow/differential heating boundaries are present supporting ample mesoscale lift for storm initiation within the destabilizing air mass. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE has developed with 50-60 kt of effective shear. Storm organization (should development continue) into supercells or short bowing segments is probable. Mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C and the strong vertical shear will favor large hail (especially with rotating updrafts), damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes. However, confidence in the development and the timing of robust storm development is modest given the air mass resides in the cold pool of the earlier MCS. Stable wave clouds and the relatively limited depth of boundary-layer CU are noted over much of IN, while more robust vertical development is confined to the differential heating axis/modified outflow. Forecaster experience suggests storms may struggle to become established initially with broad, albeit weak, synoptic decent likely ongoing behind the former MCS. Still, numerous CAM solutions and ongoing convection upstream over eastern MO and IL suggests storm development is possible. Stronger, more established convection over eastern MO may also move into southern/central IN later this afternoon/evening. Given the environment with expanding hodographs and favorable buoyancy this evening, these storms would pose a risk for all hazards. With confidence in the evolution in mind, convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch of portions of IN and western OH in the next couple of hours. ..Lyons/Goss.. 03/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT... ILX... LAT...LON 38348725 38348746 38308772 38458773 39038760 40298756 40768753 41478705 41748636 41868487 41758388 41718322 41438297 41058298 40698319 39518477 38798636 38348725 Read more

WW 0046 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0046 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more