Aggregator

MD 0761 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0761 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Areas affected...Southern Mississippi...Southern Alabama...Western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 130939Z - 131045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A wind damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat will be possible for several more hours, as a line segment moves east-southeastward from southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar from Jackson, MS shows an organized line segment moving east-southwestward across southern Mississippi. This line is being supported by a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery, and is located along a gradient of instability, where the RAP has MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Along this west-northwest to east-southeast corridor, regional WSR-88D VWPs and RAP forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 75 knot range. This should continue to be favorable for storm organization for several more hours. Wind damage will be possible along the leading edge of the line. In addition, the WSR-88 VWP at Fort Rucker, AL has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 350 m2/s2 suggesting an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. The severe threat may increase along the leading edge of the line, if it can become more surface-based. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 32218844 32208921 31878958 31538980 31198975 31018952 30238754 29968668 30128597 30528570 30968558 31488614 31898725 32188824 32218844 Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-023-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-069-097-099-129- 131-131140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-131140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON MSC039-041-047-059-111-131-153-131140- Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-023-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-069-097-099-129- 131-131140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-131140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON MSC039-041-047-059-111-131-153-131140- Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon May 13 09:37:02 UTC 2024.

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Southwest/northern Mexico on D4/Thursday and through the southern Plains D5/Friday. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, with thunderstorms possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Severe potential with these storms remains unclear, complicated by the slow-moving, low-latitude character of the shortwave and chance for widespread precipitation. How this shortwave evolves becomes more uncertain after D5/Friday, with notable run-to-tun and model-to-model variability limiting forecast confidence. Even with this uncertainty, guidance does show relatively good consensus that shortwave ridging will follow in the wake of this system across the southern Plains this weekend before another more progressive wave ejects into the central/southern Plains early next week. The northern stream will remain fairly active during this period as well, with several shortwave troughs moving through the moderate westerly flow aloft. General expectation is that the more favorable low-level moisture will remain displace south of the first shortwave on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. There is some potential for moisture advection ahead of the next wave, but, like areas farther south, predictability after D5/Friday decreases considerably. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Southwest/northern Mexico on D4/Thursday and through the southern Plains D5/Friday. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, with thunderstorms possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Severe potential with these storms remains unclear, complicated by the slow-moving, low-latitude character of the shortwave and chance for widespread precipitation. How this shortwave evolves becomes more uncertain after D5/Friday, with notable run-to-tun and model-to-model variability limiting forecast confidence. Even with this uncertainty, guidance does show relatively good consensus that shortwave ridging will follow in the wake of this system across the southern Plains this weekend before another more progressive wave ejects into the central/southern Plains early next week. The northern stream will remain fairly active during this period as well, with several shortwave troughs moving through the moderate westerly flow aloft. General expectation is that the more favorable low-level moisture will remain displace south of the first shortwave on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. There is some potential for moisture advection ahead of the next wave, but, like areas farther south, predictability after D5/Friday decreases considerably. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Southwest/northern Mexico on D4/Thursday and through the southern Plains D5/Friday. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, with thunderstorms possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Severe potential with these storms remains unclear, complicated by the slow-moving, low-latitude character of the shortwave and chance for widespread precipitation. How this shortwave evolves becomes more uncertain after D5/Friday, with notable run-to-tun and model-to-model variability limiting forecast confidence. Even with this uncertainty, guidance does show relatively good consensus that shortwave ridging will follow in the wake of this system across the southern Plains this weekend before another more progressive wave ejects into the central/southern Plains early next week. The northern stream will remain fairly active during this period as well, with several shortwave troughs moving through the moderate westerly flow aloft. General expectation is that the more favorable low-level moisture will remain displace south of the first shortwave on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. There is some potential for moisture advection ahead of the next wave, but, like areas farther south, predictability after D5/Friday decreases considerably. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Southwest/northern Mexico on D4/Thursday and through the southern Plains D5/Friday. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, with thunderstorms possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Severe potential with these storms remains unclear, complicated by the slow-moving, low-latitude character of the shortwave and chance for widespread precipitation. How this shortwave evolves becomes more uncertain after D5/Friday, with notable run-to-tun and model-to-model variability limiting forecast confidence. Even with this uncertainty, guidance does show relatively good consensus that shortwave ridging will follow in the wake of this system across the southern Plains this weekend before another more progressive wave ejects into the central/southern Plains early next week. The northern stream will remain fairly active during this period as well, with several shortwave troughs moving through the moderate westerly flow aloft. General expectation is that the more favorable low-level moisture will remain displace south of the first shortwave on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. There is some potential for moisture advection ahead of the next wave, but, like areas farther south, predictability after D5/Friday decreases considerably. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Southwest/northern Mexico on D4/Thursday and through the southern Plains D5/Friday. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, with thunderstorms possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Severe potential with these storms remains unclear, complicated by the slow-moving, low-latitude character of the shortwave and chance for widespread precipitation. How this shortwave evolves becomes more uncertain after D5/Friday, with notable run-to-tun and model-to-model variability limiting forecast confidence. Even with this uncertainty, guidance does show relatively good consensus that shortwave ridging will follow in the wake of this system across the southern Plains this weekend before another more progressive wave ejects into the central/southern Plains early next week. The northern stream will remain fairly active during this period as well, with several shortwave troughs moving through the moderate westerly flow aloft. General expectation is that the more favorable low-level moisture will remain displace south of the first shortwave on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. There is some potential for moisture advection ahead of the next wave, but, like areas farther south, predictability after D5/Friday decreases considerably. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Southwest/northern Mexico on D4/Thursday and through the southern Plains D5/Friday. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, with thunderstorms possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Severe potential with these storms remains unclear, complicated by the slow-moving, low-latitude character of the shortwave and chance for widespread precipitation. How this shortwave evolves becomes more uncertain after D5/Friday, with notable run-to-tun and model-to-model variability limiting forecast confidence. Even with this uncertainty, guidance does show relatively good consensus that shortwave ridging will follow in the wake of this system across the southern Plains this weekend before another more progressive wave ejects into the central/southern Plains early next week. The northern stream will remain fairly active during this period as well, with several shortwave troughs moving through the moderate westerly flow aloft. General expectation is that the more favorable low-level moisture will remain displace south of the first shortwave on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. There is some potential for moisture advection ahead of the next wave, but, like areas farther south, predictability after D5/Friday decreases considerably. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Southwest/northern Mexico on D4/Thursday and through the southern Plains D5/Friday. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, with thunderstorms possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Severe potential with these storms remains unclear, complicated by the slow-moving, low-latitude character of the shortwave and chance for widespread precipitation. How this shortwave evolves becomes more uncertain after D5/Friday, with notable run-to-tun and model-to-model variability limiting forecast confidence. Even with this uncertainty, guidance does show relatively good consensus that shortwave ridging will follow in the wake of this system across the southern Plains this weekend before another more progressive wave ejects into the central/southern Plains early next week. The northern stream will remain fairly active during this period as well, with several shortwave troughs moving through the moderate westerly flow aloft. General expectation is that the more favorable low-level moisture will remain displace south of the first shortwave on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. There is some potential for moisture advection ahead of the next wave, but, like areas farther south, predictability after D5/Friday decreases considerably. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Southwest/northern Mexico on D4/Thursday and through the southern Plains D5/Friday. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, with thunderstorms possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Severe potential with these storms remains unclear, complicated by the slow-moving, low-latitude character of the shortwave and chance for widespread precipitation. How this shortwave evolves becomes more uncertain after D5/Friday, with notable run-to-tun and model-to-model variability limiting forecast confidence. Even with this uncertainty, guidance does show relatively good consensus that shortwave ridging will follow in the wake of this system across the southern Plains this weekend before another more progressive wave ejects into the central/southern Plains early next week. The northern stream will remain fairly active during this period as well, with several shortwave troughs moving through the moderate westerly flow aloft. General expectation is that the more favorable low-level moisture will remain displace south of the first shortwave on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. There is some potential for moisture advection ahead of the next wave, but, like areas farther south, predictability after D5/Friday decreases considerably. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Southwest/northern Mexico on D4/Thursday and through the southern Plains D5/Friday. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, with thunderstorms possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Severe potential with these storms remains unclear, complicated by the slow-moving, low-latitude character of the shortwave and chance for widespread precipitation. How this shortwave evolves becomes more uncertain after D5/Friday, with notable run-to-tun and model-to-model variability limiting forecast confidence. Even with this uncertainty, guidance does show relatively good consensus that shortwave ridging will follow in the wake of this system across the southern Plains this weekend before another more progressive wave ejects into the central/southern Plains early next week. The northern stream will remain fairly active during this period as well, with several shortwave troughs moving through the moderate westerly flow aloft. General expectation is that the more favorable low-level moisture will remain displace south of the first shortwave on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. There is some potential for moisture advection ahead of the next wave, but, like areas farther south, predictability after D5/Friday decreases considerably. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Southwest/northern Mexico on D4/Thursday and through the southern Plains D5/Friday. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, with thunderstorms possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Severe potential with these storms remains unclear, complicated by the slow-moving, low-latitude character of the shortwave and chance for widespread precipitation. How this shortwave evolves becomes more uncertain after D5/Friday, with notable run-to-tun and model-to-model variability limiting forecast confidence. Even with this uncertainty, guidance does show relatively good consensus that shortwave ridging will follow in the wake of this system across the southern Plains this weekend before another more progressive wave ejects into the central/southern Plains early next week. The northern stream will remain fairly active during this period as well, with several shortwave troughs moving through the moderate westerly flow aloft. General expectation is that the more favorable low-level moisture will remain displace south of the first shortwave on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. There is some potential for moisture advection ahead of the next wave, but, like areas farther south, predictability after D5/Friday decreases considerably. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern High Plains, the eastern Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the FL Peninsula... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the eastern NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this low into southeast GA and northern FL will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Warm mid-level temperatures may mitigate buoyancy somewhat, but deep updrafts are still possible. Strong westerly flow will extend across the Peninsula, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Farther north, modest destabilization is anticipated across the eastern Carolinas ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ...Central/Southern Plains... The central/southern Plains are expected to lie between shortwave ridging over the MS Valley and a deepening upper low over southern CA/Baja on Wednesday, with largely zonal westerly flow anticipated across the region. A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Upslope flow is also possible around the low into southwest KS/far southeast CO, contributing to potential thunderstorm development in this area as well. Any storms that mature could produce strong downdrafts and/or isolated hail. ..Mosier.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern High Plains, the eastern Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the FL Peninsula... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the eastern NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this low into southeast GA and northern FL will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Warm mid-level temperatures may mitigate buoyancy somewhat, but deep updrafts are still possible. Strong westerly flow will extend across the Peninsula, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Farther north, modest destabilization is anticipated across the eastern Carolinas ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ...Central/Southern Plains... The central/southern Plains are expected to lie between shortwave ridging over the MS Valley and a deepening upper low over southern CA/Baja on Wednesday, with largely zonal westerly flow anticipated across the region. A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Upslope flow is also possible around the low into southwest KS/far southeast CO, contributing to potential thunderstorm development in this area as well. Any storms that mature could produce strong downdrafts and/or isolated hail. ..Mosier.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern High Plains, the eastern Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the FL Peninsula... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the eastern NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this low into southeast GA and northern FL will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Warm mid-level temperatures may mitigate buoyancy somewhat, but deep updrafts are still possible. Strong westerly flow will extend across the Peninsula, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Farther north, modest destabilization is anticipated across the eastern Carolinas ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ...Central/Southern Plains... The central/southern Plains are expected to lie between shortwave ridging over the MS Valley and a deepening upper low over southern CA/Baja on Wednesday, with largely zonal westerly flow anticipated across the region. A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Upslope flow is also possible around the low into southwest KS/far southeast CO, contributing to potential thunderstorm development in this area as well. Any storms that mature could produce strong downdrafts and/or isolated hail. ..Mosier.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern High Plains, the eastern Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the FL Peninsula... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the eastern NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this low into southeast GA and northern FL will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Warm mid-level temperatures may mitigate buoyancy somewhat, but deep updrafts are still possible. Strong westerly flow will extend across the Peninsula, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Farther north, modest destabilization is anticipated across the eastern Carolinas ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ...Central/Southern Plains... The central/southern Plains are expected to lie between shortwave ridging over the MS Valley and a deepening upper low over southern CA/Baja on Wednesday, with largely zonal westerly flow anticipated across the region. A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Upslope flow is also possible around the low into southwest KS/far southeast CO, contributing to potential thunderstorm development in this area as well. Any storms that mature could produce strong downdrafts and/or isolated hail. ..Mosier.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern High Plains, the eastern Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the FL Peninsula... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the eastern NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this low into southeast GA and northern FL will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Warm mid-level temperatures may mitigate buoyancy somewhat, but deep updrafts are still possible. Strong westerly flow will extend across the Peninsula, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Farther north, modest destabilization is anticipated across the eastern Carolinas ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ...Central/Southern Plains... The central/southern Plains are expected to lie between shortwave ridging over the MS Valley and a deepening upper low over southern CA/Baja on Wednesday, with largely zonal westerly flow anticipated across the region. A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Upslope flow is also possible around the low into southwest KS/far southeast CO, contributing to potential thunderstorm development in this area as well. Any storms that mature could produce strong downdrafts and/or isolated hail. ..Mosier.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern High Plains, the eastern Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the FL Peninsula... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the eastern NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this low into southeast GA and northern FL will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Warm mid-level temperatures may mitigate buoyancy somewhat, but deep updrafts are still possible. Strong westerly flow will extend across the Peninsula, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Farther north, modest destabilization is anticipated across the eastern Carolinas ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ...Central/Southern Plains... The central/southern Plains are expected to lie between shortwave ridging over the MS Valley and a deepening upper low over southern CA/Baja on Wednesday, with largely zonal westerly flow anticipated across the region. A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Upslope flow is also possible around the low into southwest KS/far southeast CO, contributing to potential thunderstorm development in this area as well. Any storms that mature could produce strong downdrafts and/or isolated hail. ..Mosier.. 05/13/2024 Read more