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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern High Plains, the eastern Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the FL Peninsula... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the eastern NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this low into southeast GA and northern FL will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Warm mid-level temperatures may mitigate buoyancy somewhat, but deep updrafts are still possible. Strong westerly flow will extend across the Peninsula, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Farther north, modest destabilization is anticipated across the eastern Carolinas ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ...Central/Southern Plains... The central/southern Plains are expected to lie between shortwave ridging over the MS Valley and a deepening upper low over southern CA/Baja on Wednesday, with largely zonal westerly flow anticipated across the region. A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Upslope flow is also possible around the low into southwest KS/far southeast CO, contributing to potential thunderstorm development in this area as well. Any storms that mature could produce strong downdrafts and/or isolated hail. ..Mosier.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern High Plains, the eastern Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic into the FL Peninsula... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the eastern NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this low into southeast GA and northern FL will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Warm mid-level temperatures may mitigate buoyancy somewhat, but deep updrafts are still possible. Strong westerly flow will extend across the Peninsula, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Farther north, modest destabilization is anticipated across the eastern Carolinas ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ...Central/Southern Plains... The central/southern Plains are expected to lie between shortwave ridging over the MS Valley and a deepening upper low over southern CA/Baja on Wednesday, with largely zonal westerly flow anticipated across the region. A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Upslope flow is also possible around the low into southwest KS/far southeast CO, contributing to potential thunderstorm development in this area as well. Any storms that mature could produce strong downdrafts and/or isolated hail. ..Mosier.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Lower MS Valley today, encouraging ample low-level moisture to return northward across portions of the southern Plains to the East Coast. Farther west along the lee of the Rockies into western portions of the Plains, modestly dry conditions will persist, but with a weaker surface wind field. As such, significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Lower MS Valley today, encouraging ample low-level moisture to return northward across portions of the southern Plains to the East Coast. Farther west along the lee of the Rockies into western portions of the Plains, modestly dry conditions will persist, but with a weaker surface wind field. As such, significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Lower MS Valley today, encouraging ample low-level moisture to return northward across portions of the southern Plains to the East Coast. Farther west along the lee of the Rockies into western portions of the Plains, modestly dry conditions will persist, but with a weaker surface wind field. As such, significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Lower MS Valley today, encouraging ample low-level moisture to return northward across portions of the southern Plains to the East Coast. Farther west along the lee of the Rockies into western portions of the Plains, modestly dry conditions will persist, but with a weaker surface wind field. As such, significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Lower MS Valley today, encouraging ample low-level moisture to return northward across portions of the southern Plains to the East Coast. Farther west along the lee of the Rockies into western portions of the Plains, modestly dry conditions will persist, but with a weaker surface wind field. As such, significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Lower MS Valley today, encouraging ample low-level moisture to return northward across portions of the southern Plains to the East Coast. Farther west along the lee of the Rockies into western portions of the Plains, modestly dry conditions will persist, but with a weaker surface wind field. As such, significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Lower MS Valley today, encouraging ample low-level moisture to return northward across portions of the southern Plains to the East Coast. Farther west along the lee of the Rockies into western portions of the Plains, modestly dry conditions will persist, but with a weaker surface wind field. As such, significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Lower MS Valley today, encouraging ample low-level moisture to return northward across portions of the southern Plains to the East Coast. Farther west along the lee of the Rockies into western portions of the Plains, modestly dry conditions will persist, but with a weaker surface wind field. As such, significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast States into northern/central Florida. ...TN Valley/Southeast States... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from Mid MS Valley south-southwestward through east TX into the northwest Gulf of Mexico early Tuesday morning. This shortwave is expected to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast throughout the day. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface low associated with this shortwave will be stacked beneath the upper low throughout much of the period, gradually moving eastward in tandem with the parent shortwave. A weak cold front will extend southward from this surface low. This front is expected to make gradual eastward progress across the TN Valley and Southeast States, likely reaching the southern Piedmont region by early Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in central Gulf Coast vicinity, well ahead of the cold front. Given questions regarding convective evolution overnight Monday, the location, coverage, and intensity of these storms is uncertain. Guidance indicates that the most probable scenario places a decaying convective line in the southern AL/southern GA/FL Panhandle vicinity. This line is then expected to continue eastward, with at least some chance for reintensification during the afternoon with the southern end of the line across the northern FL Peninsula. There is also some chance that a mesoscale convective vortex within the northern portion of the line interacts with a destabilized airmass across southeast GA and eastern SC. In both areas, damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk but a brief tornado or two is also possible. Uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution merits low severe probabilities (i.e. 5% wind/2% tornado) with this outlook. The early morning convection is not expected to overturn the airmass, with mid to upper 60s likely remain in place ahead of the approaching cold front. General expectation is for the airmass across the TN Valley and much of the Southeast to destabilize by the early afternoon amid modest heating of this moist environment. Convergence along the front will be weak, due to veering within the warm sector, and large-scale ascent will be modest, but isolated to widely scattered still appears probable along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. A few stronger mulitcells capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy and modest shear should temper the overall storm strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast States into northern/central Florida. ...TN Valley/Southeast States... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from Mid MS Valley south-southwestward through east TX into the northwest Gulf of Mexico early Tuesday morning. This shortwave is expected to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast throughout the day. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface low associated with this shortwave will be stacked beneath the upper low throughout much of the period, gradually moving eastward in tandem with the parent shortwave. A weak cold front will extend southward from this surface low. This front is expected to make gradual eastward progress across the TN Valley and Southeast States, likely reaching the southern Piedmont region by early Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in central Gulf Coast vicinity, well ahead of the cold front. Given questions regarding convective evolution overnight Monday, the location, coverage, and intensity of these storms is uncertain. Guidance indicates that the most probable scenario places a decaying convective line in the southern AL/southern GA/FL Panhandle vicinity. This line is then expected to continue eastward, with at least some chance for reintensification during the afternoon with the southern end of the line across the northern FL Peninsula. There is also some chance that a mesoscale convective vortex within the northern portion of the line interacts with a destabilized airmass across southeast GA and eastern SC. In both areas, damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk but a brief tornado or two is also possible. Uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution merits low severe probabilities (i.e. 5% wind/2% tornado) with this outlook. The early morning convection is not expected to overturn the airmass, with mid to upper 60s likely remain in place ahead of the approaching cold front. General expectation is for the airmass across the TN Valley and much of the Southeast to destabilize by the early afternoon amid modest heating of this moist environment. Convergence along the front will be weak, due to veering within the warm sector, and large-scale ascent will be modest, but isolated to widely scattered still appears probable along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. A few stronger mulitcells capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy and modest shear should temper the overall storm strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 05/13/2024 Read more