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MD 0486 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 125... FOR SOUTHEAST MO...WESTERN KY...SOUTHERN IL...SOUTHWEST IN
Mesoscale Discussion 0486 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Areas affected...Southeast MO...western KY...southern IL...southwest IN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 125... Valid 182148Z - 182315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 125 continues. SUMMARY...A short-term threat for isolated severe hail/wind will continue into early evening, with additional storms expected later tonight. New watch issuance will become increasingly likely with time this evening, though timing will be influenced by evolution of ongoing storms on the southeast edge of WW 125. DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms, including a robust supercell, has intensified this afternoon across far southeast MO into southern IL, within a moderately unstable and weakly capped environment. Modestly veering winds with height are supporting effective shear of 30-40 kt across the region, supporting continued supercell potential with any mature storms, with an attendant threat of severe hail and wind. With generally nebulous large-scale ascent expected in the near term, storm coverage may remain somewhat isolated into early evening, with additional storms expected to move into the area later tonight. WW 125 has been locally extended to cover the short-term threat into southern IL. New watch issuance will become increasingly likely later tonight as storm coverage increases from the west, though timing of a new watch will be influenced by the evolution of ongoing storms across southern IL, and whether they can persist into parts of western KY and southwest IN. ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 36538981 37848949 38348914 38858796 38778747 38458714 37738728 36838821 36638876 36608910 36538981 Read more

MD 0485 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0485 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Areas affected...central/north-central into northeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182102Z - 182300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for isolated to widely scattered supercells will increase late this afternoon into the early evening. DISCUSSION...A very unstable airmass has developed across central and northeast Texas with low to mid 70s dewpoints and temperatures in the 80s. MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg and effective shear around 25 to 30 knots will support organized storms including the potential for supercells. However, storm coverage remains questionable due to relatively weak forcing. In the near term, the best potential for storm development is in central Texas where temperatures are hot (near 90 F) and convergence is greater. Visible satellite shows cumulus clustering in this region with at least one orphan anvil. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed if mature thunderstorm development appears imminent. This region is south of the mid-level speed max which is resulting in less shear. However, shear should be sufficient for supercells, and given the extreme buoyancy, very large hail (up to baseball size) is possible. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30879829 30889900 31019945 31289954 31459926 31749898 32579761 33509702 33829654 33909521 33569412 32699445 31699573 30939711 30879829 Read more

WW 0127 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 127 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..04/18/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 127 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC007-049-055-069-075-079-089-099-101-103-121-123-125-149-159- 163-182340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATTALA HINDS ISSAQUENA KEMPER LAUDERDALE LEAKE MADISON NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY WARREN WINSTON YAZOO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0126 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 126 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..04/18/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 126 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-009-015-033-047-057-061-071-081-083-087-097-101-109-113- 115-127-131-133-143-149-182340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN HEMPSTEAD HOWARD JOHNSON LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MADISON MONTGOMERY NEWTON PIKE POLK POPE SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER WASHINGTON YELL OKC001-021-023-061-077-079-089-121-127-135-182340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE MCCURTAIN PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH Read more

WW 0125 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 125 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW JLN TO 15 NNE COU. ..THORNTON..04/18/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 125 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-005-013-021-025-027-047-049-051-055-059-061-065-069-077- 081-083-087-117-119-121-127-133-135-137-145-149-151-153-157-163- 165-167-171-173-181-185-189-191-193-199-182340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLAY CLINTON EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN GREENE HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JERSEY JOHNSON MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MASSAC MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN PERRY PIKE POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SALINE SANGAMON SCOTT SHELBY UNION WABASH WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON MOC007-009-017-023-027-031-035-043-051-055-065-067-071-073-077- 091-093-099-105-109-113-119-123-125-139-145-149-151-153-157-161- Read more

MD 0484 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0484 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Areas affected...northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182039Z - 182215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts has increased across northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi. DISCUSSION...A persistent cluster of thunderstorms in the ArkLaMiss has shown minimal organization this afternoon. However, within the last 30 minutes, some stronger cores have developed and are starting to show better structure from the KDGX WSR-88D. Temperatures south of this activity have warmed into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. This has yielded 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE with SPC mesoanalysis indicating MLCINH has recently eroded. Therefore, these storms may be becoming surface based. If so, this would increase the threat for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts this afternoon, and allow the threat to persist into the late afternoon and early evening. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV... LAT...LON 33538863 33108838 32548842 32178894 32029116 32109208 32419233 32989214 33249124 33538863 Read more

MD 0483 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 125... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0483 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Areas affected...central and southern Missouri into southern and central Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 125... Valid 182009Z - 182215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 125 continues. SUMMARY...Severe-weather risk continues across WW 125, particularly across central and into northeastern Missouri within northern portions of the WW. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of storms extending from near the Mississippi River Valley in west-central Illinois, southwestward into southwestern Missouri, with the strongest convection extending from Pike County to Morgan County Missouri -- i.e. northeast-to-southwest through the Columbia (COU) vicinity. Analysis of 18Z surface data shows the surface low just north of COU, with the aforementioned convection along both the warm and cold fronts, immediately adjacent to the low. The strongest storm remains a now well-developed supercell storm just ahead of the low, over northwestern Pike County Missouri. Large hail, in excess of 1.5" in diameter, appears to be the main short-term threat with this storm. A second storm just to the southwest, in Audrain County, has also strengthened over the past hour. Meanwhile, weak convection continues to increase across southeastern portions of the WW, over the southeastern Missouri vicinity. Although intensification should remain gradual, local severe risk should gradually increase across this area over the next 1 to 2 hours. Overall, storms continue to evolve as expected, as the airmass continues to gradually destabilize northward into east-central Missouri. Potential for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts, along with potential for a tornado, continues. ..Goss.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 37099487 38629246 39459161 40009005 39768855 38778823 37538871 36838945 36499024 36529459 37099487 Read more

WW 0128 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0128 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0482 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0482 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182001Z - 182200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered supercells are possible this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...A strong cold front continues to move rapidly across Oklahoma this afternoon. Temperatures ahead of the front have warmed into the upper 70s to near 80 across eastern Oklahoma with a moist airmass featuring dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. This yields over 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear around 40 to 45 knots. This parameter space is quite favorable for supercells capable of large to very large hail if storms form. However, there is considerable uncertainty regarding convective coverage this afternoon/evening. Despite strong convergence along the front in northeast Oklahoma, updrafts have struggled to deepen sufficiently to produce lightning. KINX base reflectivity indicates this is most likely due to storms struggling to stay anchored to, or ahead of, the cold front in the warm air. Stronger mid-level flow, the arrival of which likely coincides with mid-upper level cirrus moving across western Oklahoma now, may assist in storms remaining along or ahead of the front later this afternoon. Therefore, anticipate storms may struggle for the next 1 to 2 hours before a better chance of a few strong to severe supercells occurs later this afternoon/evening with the arrival of this mid-level speed max. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 36209306 35319317 34159382 33649456 33789532 33909642 34319669 34989611 35799563 36569507 36489303 36209306 Read more

WW 0127 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0127 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Through the middle of next week, models suggest that the upper-level flow pattern will be quasi-zonal across the CONUS. The strongest upper-level winds will remain across then northern tier states during that same period. For the middle/latter portions of next week, models have suggested that mean troughing will set up in the West. At the surface, after an surge of cooler air reaches into the northern/central Gulf this weekend, some return flow is likely to occur into the southern Plains by the middle of next week. Between cooler temperatures as well as recent/expected precipitation, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal for most locations. Dry weather is expected across parts of the Southwest where fuels continue to dry. As troughing develops in the West, an increase in surface winds would occur. Depending on fuel receptiveness by mid/late next week, some increase in fire weather concerns could occur. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Through the middle of next week, models suggest that the upper-level flow pattern will be quasi-zonal across the CONUS. The strongest upper-level winds will remain across then northern tier states during that same period. For the middle/latter portions of next week, models have suggested that mean troughing will set up in the West. At the surface, after an surge of cooler air reaches into the northern/central Gulf this weekend, some return flow is likely to occur into the southern Plains by the middle of next week. Between cooler temperatures as well as recent/expected precipitation, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal for most locations. Dry weather is expected across parts of the Southwest where fuels continue to dry. As troughing develops in the West, an increase in surface winds would occur. Depending on fuel receptiveness by mid/late next week, some increase in fire weather concerns could occur. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Through the middle of next week, models suggest that the upper-level flow pattern will be quasi-zonal across the CONUS. The strongest upper-level winds will remain across then northern tier states during that same period. For the middle/latter portions of next week, models have suggested that mean troughing will set up in the West. At the surface, after an surge of cooler air reaches into the northern/central Gulf this weekend, some return flow is likely to occur into the southern Plains by the middle of next week. Between cooler temperatures as well as recent/expected precipitation, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal for most locations. Dry weather is expected across parts of the Southwest where fuels continue to dry. As troughing develops in the West, an increase in surface winds would occur. Depending on fuel receptiveness by mid/late next week, some increase in fire weather concerns could occur. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Through the middle of next week, models suggest that the upper-level flow pattern will be quasi-zonal across the CONUS. The strongest upper-level winds will remain across then northern tier states during that same period. For the middle/latter portions of next week, models have suggested that mean troughing will set up in the West. At the surface, after an surge of cooler air reaches into the northern/central Gulf this weekend, some return flow is likely to occur into the southern Plains by the middle of next week. Between cooler temperatures as well as recent/expected precipitation, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal for most locations. Dry weather is expected across parts of the Southwest where fuels continue to dry. As troughing develops in the West, an increase in surface winds would occur. Depending on fuel receptiveness by mid/late next week, some increase in fire weather concerns could occur. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Through the middle of next week, models suggest that the upper-level flow pattern will be quasi-zonal across the CONUS. The strongest upper-level winds will remain across then northern tier states during that same period. For the middle/latter portions of next week, models have suggested that mean troughing will set up in the West. At the surface, after an surge of cooler air reaches into the northern/central Gulf this weekend, some return flow is likely to occur into the southern Plains by the middle of next week. Between cooler temperatures as well as recent/expected precipitation, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal for most locations. Dry weather is expected across parts of the Southwest where fuels continue to dry. As troughing develops in the West, an increase in surface winds would occur. Depending on fuel receptiveness by mid/late next week, some increase in fire weather concerns could occur. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Through the middle of next week, models suggest that the upper-level flow pattern will be quasi-zonal across the CONUS. The strongest upper-level winds will remain across then northern tier states during that same period. For the middle/latter portions of next week, models have suggested that mean troughing will set up in the West. At the surface, after an surge of cooler air reaches into the northern/central Gulf this weekend, some return flow is likely to occur into the southern Plains by the middle of next week. Between cooler temperatures as well as recent/expected precipitation, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal for most locations. Dry weather is expected across parts of the Southwest where fuels continue to dry. As troughing develops in the West, an increase in surface winds would occur. Depending on fuel receptiveness by mid/late next week, some increase in fire weather concerns could occur. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Through the middle of next week, models suggest that the upper-level flow pattern will be quasi-zonal across the CONUS. The strongest upper-level winds will remain across then northern tier states during that same period. For the middle/latter portions of next week, models have suggested that mean troughing will set up in the West. At the surface, after an surge of cooler air reaches into the northern/central Gulf this weekend, some return flow is likely to occur into the southern Plains by the middle of next week. Between cooler temperatures as well as recent/expected precipitation, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal for most locations. Dry weather is expected across parts of the Southwest where fuels continue to dry. As troughing develops in the West, an increase in surface winds would occur. Depending on fuel receptiveness by mid/late next week, some increase in fire weather concerns could occur. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Through the middle of next week, models suggest that the upper-level flow pattern will be quasi-zonal across the CONUS. The strongest upper-level winds will remain across then northern tier states during that same period. For the middle/latter portions of next week, models have suggested that mean troughing will set up in the West. At the surface, after an surge of cooler air reaches into the northern/central Gulf this weekend, some return flow is likely to occur into the southern Plains by the middle of next week. Between cooler temperatures as well as recent/expected precipitation, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal for most locations. Dry weather is expected across parts of the Southwest where fuels continue to dry. As troughing develops in the West, an increase in surface winds would occur. Depending on fuel receptiveness by mid/late next week, some increase in fire weather concerns could occur. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Through the middle of next week, models suggest that the upper-level flow pattern will be quasi-zonal across the CONUS. The strongest upper-level winds will remain across then northern tier states during that same period. For the middle/latter portions of next week, models have suggested that mean troughing will set up in the West. At the surface, after an surge of cooler air reaches into the northern/central Gulf this weekend, some return flow is likely to occur into the southern Plains by the middle of next week. Between cooler temperatures as well as recent/expected precipitation, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal for most locations. Dry weather is expected across parts of the Southwest where fuels continue to dry. As troughing develops in the West, an increase in surface winds would occur. Depending on fuel receptiveness by mid/late next week, some increase in fire weather concerns could occur. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Through the middle of next week, models suggest that the upper-level flow pattern will be quasi-zonal across the CONUS. The strongest upper-level winds will remain across then northern tier states during that same period. For the middle/latter portions of next week, models have suggested that mean troughing will set up in the West. At the surface, after an surge of cooler air reaches into the northern/central Gulf this weekend, some return flow is likely to occur into the southern Plains by the middle of next week. Between cooler temperatures as well as recent/expected precipitation, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal for most locations. Dry weather is expected across parts of the Southwest where fuels continue to dry. As troughing develops in the West, an increase in surface winds would occur. Depending on fuel receptiveness by mid/late next week, some increase in fire weather concerns could occur. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more