Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... Surface high pressure is forecast to move across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, a dry and cool airmass is expected to limit severe potential across the continental U.S. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... Low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the Southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex from Wednesday into Wednesday night, as a low-level jet develops across the Great Plains. Within the warm advection regime, isolated strong thunderstorm development could take place. A hail threat would be possible in parts of the southern and central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens and instability increases Wednesday night. On Thursday and Friday, the medium-range models develop a large-scale upper-level trough over the southwestern U.S. Some solutions eject a lead shortwave across the central U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. Ahead of this feature, significant moisture return is forecast, and it appears that moderate instability will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms could develop to the east of a dryline across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Some model solutions suggest that a second shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday. This would continue a potential for severe storms Friday into Friday night from the southern Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. In spite of a potential for severe storms late in the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability remains low. This is especially true on Friday due a relatively large spread among the model solutions. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... Surface high pressure is forecast to move across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, a dry and cool airmass is expected to limit severe potential across the continental U.S. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... Low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the Southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex from Wednesday into Wednesday night, as a low-level jet develops across the Great Plains. Within the warm advection regime, isolated strong thunderstorm development could take place. A hail threat would be possible in parts of the southern and central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens and instability increases Wednesday night. On Thursday and Friday, the medium-range models develop a large-scale upper-level trough over the southwestern U.S. Some solutions eject a lead shortwave across the central U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. Ahead of this feature, significant moisture return is forecast, and it appears that moderate instability will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms could develop to the east of a dryline across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Some model solutions suggest that a second shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday. This would continue a potential for severe storms Friday into Friday night from the southern Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. In spite of a potential for severe storms late in the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability remains low. This is especially true on Friday due a relatively large spread among the model solutions. Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR REVERSED THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... A shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday, as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located across south-central and southeast Texas. South of this boundary, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected. ECMWF forecast soundings in south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40 knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR REVERSED THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... A shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday, as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located across south-central and southeast Texas. South of this boundary, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected. ECMWF forecast soundings in south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40 knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR REVERSED THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... A shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday, as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located across south-central and southeast Texas. South of this boundary, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected. ECMWF forecast soundings in south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40 knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR REVERSED THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... A shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday, as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located across south-central and southeast Texas. South of this boundary, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected. ECMWF forecast soundings in south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40 knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR REVERSED THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... A shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday, as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located across south-central and southeast Texas. South of this boundary, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected. ECMWF forecast soundings in south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40 knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of the Gulf Coast region, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central Gulf Coast states on Sunday, as a cold front moves from the coastal areas into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the front early in the day. Other post-frontal storms may develop in parts of the Gulf Coast states during the afternoon. Instability across the Gulf Coast is expected to be very weak limiting any potential for severe storms. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of the Gulf Coast region, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central Gulf Coast states on Sunday, as a cold front moves from the coastal areas into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the front early in the day. Other post-frontal storms may develop in parts of the Gulf Coast states during the afternoon. Instability across the Gulf Coast is expected to be very weak limiting any potential for severe storms. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of the Gulf Coast region, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central Gulf Coast states on Sunday, as a cold front moves from the coastal areas into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the front early in the day. Other post-frontal storms may develop in parts of the Gulf Coast states during the afternoon. Instability across the Gulf Coast is expected to be very weak limiting any potential for severe storms. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of the Gulf Coast region, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central Gulf Coast states on Sunday, as a cold front moves from the coastal areas into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the front early in the day. Other post-frontal storms may develop in parts of the Gulf Coast states during the afternoon. Instability across the Gulf Coast is expected to be very weak limiting any potential for severe storms. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of the Gulf Coast region, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central Gulf Coast states on Sunday, as a cold front moves from the coastal areas into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the front early in the day. Other post-frontal storms may develop in parts of the Gulf Coast states during the afternoon. Instability across the Gulf Coast is expected to be very weak limiting any potential for severe storms. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of the Gulf Coast region, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central Gulf Coast states on Sunday, as a cold front moves from the coastal areas into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the front early in the day. Other post-frontal storms may develop in parts of the Gulf Coast states during the afternoon. Instability across the Gulf Coast is expected to be very weak limiting any potential for severe storms. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

WW 0130 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 130 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N LIT TO 30 NNW MEM TO 5 SSE DYR TO 45 NE MKL. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 130 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 19/07Z. ..KERR..04/19/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 130 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC085-093-117-119-147-190700- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LONOKE MISSISSIPPI PRAIRIE PULASKI WOODRUFF TNC005-017-033-045-053-079-097-190700- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CROCKETT DYER GIBSON HENRY LAUDERDALE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive post-frontal air mass, characterized by cool surface temperatures and weak surface winds, will encompass much of the central and eastern CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist over the Southwest, though weak surface winds and marginal fuels will also limit fire-weather potential here. ..Weinman.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive post-frontal air mass, characterized by cool surface temperatures and weak surface winds, will encompass much of the central and eastern CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist over the Southwest, though weak surface winds and marginal fuels will also limit fire-weather potential here. ..Weinman.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive post-frontal air mass, characterized by cool surface temperatures and weak surface winds, will encompass much of the central and eastern CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist over the Southwest, though weak surface winds and marginal fuels will also limit fire-weather potential here. ..Weinman.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive post-frontal air mass, characterized by cool surface temperatures and weak surface winds, will encompass much of the central and eastern CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist over the Southwest, though weak surface winds and marginal fuels will also limit fire-weather potential here. ..Weinman.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive post-frontal air mass, characterized by cool surface temperatures and weak surface winds, will encompass much of the central and eastern CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist over the Southwest, though weak surface winds and marginal fuels will also limit fire-weather potential here. ..Weinman.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive post-frontal air mass, characterized by cool surface temperatures and weak surface winds, will encompass much of the central and eastern CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist over the Southwest, though weak surface winds and marginal fuels will also limit fire-weather potential here. ..Weinman.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more