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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel westerly jet streak will cross the northern Rockies during the afternoon, while a related cold front overspreads the region. Strong post-frontal winds are expected across northern MT, which could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH. Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are also possible over eastern MT into the western Dakotas. While locally elevated conditions are possible for both areas, marginal fuels and a limited overlap of the strongest winds and lowest RH cast uncertainty on the large-fire threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty west-northwesterly winds and 25-35 percent RH are possible from MN to Lower MI -- along the southern periphery of strong northwesterly flow aloft. This could yield locally elevated conditions, though these conditions appear too marginal for highlights, given the current state of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds near 60 mph and large hail near 1 inch diameter will be possible for a few hours this afternoon/evening across south Georgia and north Florida. ...North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening... A low amplitude shortwave trough over the north central Gulf coast will progress eastward over south GA/north FL by late afternoon, in advance of an upstream trough over the mid MS Valley. An associated cold front will move slowly southeastward and offshore of the Carolinas this afternoon, and into central FL by Monday morning. Regional 12z soundings from JAX/TLH show lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and an associated cap which is expected to weaken from the west by afternoon, when thunderstorm development will become more probable with surface heating, ascent along the front, and with larger-scale ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough. The warm sector ahead of the front across south GA/north FL will be characterized by mid 60s dewpoints and surface temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s in cloud breaks by afternoon, where MLCAPE could approach 1000 J/kg. Coincident with diurnal destabilization, midlevel flow will increase to 50 kt with largely straight hodographs and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt. This environment of moderate buoyancy and vertical shear will support the potential for multicell clusters and/or low-end supercells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts near 60 mph and large hail near 1 inch in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds near 60 mph and large hail near 1 inch diameter will be possible for a few hours this afternoon/evening across south Georgia and north Florida. ...North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening... A low amplitude shortwave trough over the north central Gulf coast will progress eastward over south GA/north FL by late afternoon, in advance of an upstream trough over the mid MS Valley. An associated cold front will move slowly southeastward and offshore of the Carolinas this afternoon, and into central FL by Monday morning. Regional 12z soundings from JAX/TLH show lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and an associated cap which is expected to weaken from the west by afternoon, when thunderstorm development will become more probable with surface heating, ascent along the front, and with larger-scale ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough. The warm sector ahead of the front across south GA/north FL will be characterized by mid 60s dewpoints and surface temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s in cloud breaks by afternoon, where MLCAPE could approach 1000 J/kg. Coincident with diurnal destabilization, midlevel flow will increase to 50 kt with largely straight hodographs and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt. This environment of moderate buoyancy and vertical shear will support the potential for multicell clusters and/or low-end supercells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts near 60 mph and large hail near 1 inch in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds near 60 mph and large hail near 1 inch diameter will be possible for a few hours this afternoon/evening across south Georgia and north Florida. ...North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening... A low amplitude shortwave trough over the north central Gulf coast will progress eastward over south GA/north FL by late afternoon, in advance of an upstream trough over the mid MS Valley. An associated cold front will move slowly southeastward and offshore of the Carolinas this afternoon, and into central FL by Monday morning. Regional 12z soundings from JAX/TLH show lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and an associated cap which is expected to weaken from the west by afternoon, when thunderstorm development will become more probable with surface heating, ascent along the front, and with larger-scale ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough. The warm sector ahead of the front across south GA/north FL will be characterized by mid 60s dewpoints and surface temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s in cloud breaks by afternoon, where MLCAPE could approach 1000 J/kg. Coincident with diurnal destabilization, midlevel flow will increase to 50 kt with largely straight hodographs and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt. This environment of moderate buoyancy and vertical shear will support the potential for multicell clusters and/or low-end supercells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts near 60 mph and large hail near 1 inch in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds near 60 mph and large hail near 1 inch diameter will be possible for a few hours this afternoon/evening across south Georgia and north Florida. ...North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening... A low amplitude shortwave trough over the north central Gulf coast will progress eastward over south GA/north FL by late afternoon, in advance of an upstream trough over the mid MS Valley. An associated cold front will move slowly southeastward and offshore of the Carolinas this afternoon, and into central FL by Monday morning. Regional 12z soundings from JAX/TLH show lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and an associated cap which is expected to weaken from the west by afternoon, when thunderstorm development will become more probable with surface heating, ascent along the front, and with larger-scale ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough. The warm sector ahead of the front across south GA/north FL will be characterized by mid 60s dewpoints and surface temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s in cloud breaks by afternoon, where MLCAPE could approach 1000 J/kg. Coincident with diurnal destabilization, midlevel flow will increase to 50 kt with largely straight hodographs and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt. This environment of moderate buoyancy and vertical shear will support the potential for multicell clusters and/or low-end supercells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts near 60 mph and large hail near 1 inch in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds near 60 mph and large hail near 1 inch diameter will be possible for a few hours this afternoon/evening across south Georgia and north Florida. ...North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening... A low amplitude shortwave trough over the north central Gulf coast will progress eastward over south GA/north FL by late afternoon, in advance of an upstream trough over the mid MS Valley. An associated cold front will move slowly southeastward and offshore of the Carolinas this afternoon, and into central FL by Monday morning. Regional 12z soundings from JAX/TLH show lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and an associated cap which is expected to weaken from the west by afternoon, when thunderstorm development will become more probable with surface heating, ascent along the front, and with larger-scale ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough. The warm sector ahead of the front across south GA/north FL will be characterized by mid 60s dewpoints and surface temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s in cloud breaks by afternoon, where MLCAPE could approach 1000 J/kg. Coincident with diurnal destabilization, midlevel flow will increase to 50 kt with largely straight hodographs and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt. This environment of moderate buoyancy and vertical shear will support the potential for multicell clusters and/or low-end supercells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts near 60 mph and large hail near 1 inch in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds near 60 mph and large hail near 1 inch diameter will be possible for a few hours this afternoon/evening across south Georgia and north Florida. ...North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening... A low amplitude shortwave trough over the north central Gulf coast will progress eastward over south GA/north FL by late afternoon, in advance of an upstream trough over the mid MS Valley. An associated cold front will move slowly southeastward and offshore of the Carolinas this afternoon, and into central FL by Monday morning. Regional 12z soundings from JAX/TLH show lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and an associated cap which is expected to weaken from the west by afternoon, when thunderstorm development will become more probable with surface heating, ascent along the front, and with larger-scale ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough. The warm sector ahead of the front across south GA/north FL will be characterized by mid 60s dewpoints and surface temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s in cloud breaks by afternoon, where MLCAPE could approach 1000 J/kg. Coincident with diurnal destabilization, midlevel flow will increase to 50 kt with largely straight hodographs and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt. This environment of moderate buoyancy and vertical shear will support the potential for multicell clusters and/or low-end supercells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts near 60 mph and large hail near 1 inch in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/21/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain in place across the Rockies on Wednesday, and then move eastward across the Great Plains on Thursday. To the west of the ridge, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Desert Southwest on Thursday. At the surface on Thursday, a well-developed dryline is forecast from west Texas northward to west-central Kansas. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the mid to late afternoon to the east of the dryline. Large hail and wind damage are expected to be the primary threats, although an isolated tornado threat could also develop. On Friday, the shortwave trough is forecast to become negatively tilted, moving through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. A corridor of moderate instability is forecast from the southern Plains northward into the Upper Midwest. As a mid-level jet moves over the warm sector during the day, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Large hail, wind damage, and a few tornadoes are expected across parts of the warm sector Friday afternoon and evening. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday and Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast in the western U.S., with a mid-level anticyclone located over the eastern half of the nation. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex north-northeastward to the Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the warm sector each afternoon and evening, mainly in areas that have sufficient deep-layer shear. However, model spread is significant at this range, and predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain in place across the Rockies on Wednesday, and then move eastward across the Great Plains on Thursday. To the west of the ridge, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Desert Southwest on Thursday. At the surface on Thursday, a well-developed dryline is forecast from west Texas northward to west-central Kansas. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the mid to late afternoon to the east of the dryline. Large hail and wind damage are expected to be the primary threats, although an isolated tornado threat could also develop. On Friday, the shortwave trough is forecast to become negatively tilted, moving through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. A corridor of moderate instability is forecast from the southern Plains northward into the Upper Midwest. As a mid-level jet moves over the warm sector during the day, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Large hail, wind damage, and a few tornadoes are expected across parts of the warm sector Friday afternoon and evening. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday and Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast in the western U.S., with a mid-level anticyclone located over the eastern half of the nation. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex north-northeastward to the Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the warm sector each afternoon and evening, mainly in areas that have sufficient deep-layer shear. However, model spread is significant at this range, and predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain in place across the Rockies on Wednesday, and then move eastward across the Great Plains on Thursday. To the west of the ridge, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Desert Southwest on Thursday. At the surface on Thursday, a well-developed dryline is forecast from west Texas northward to west-central Kansas. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the mid to late afternoon to the east of the dryline. Large hail and wind damage are expected to be the primary threats, although an isolated tornado threat could also develop. On Friday, the shortwave trough is forecast to become negatively tilted, moving through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. A corridor of moderate instability is forecast from the southern Plains northward into the Upper Midwest. As a mid-level jet moves over the warm sector during the day, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Large hail, wind damage, and a few tornadoes are expected across parts of the warm sector Friday afternoon and evening. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday and Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast in the western U.S., with a mid-level anticyclone located over the eastern half of the nation. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex north-northeastward to the Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the warm sector each afternoon and evening, mainly in areas that have sufficient deep-layer shear. However, model spread is significant at this range, and predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain in place across the Rockies on Wednesday, and then move eastward across the Great Plains on Thursday. To the west of the ridge, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Desert Southwest on Thursday. At the surface on Thursday, a well-developed dryline is forecast from west Texas northward to west-central Kansas. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the mid to late afternoon to the east of the dryline. Large hail and wind damage are expected to be the primary threats, although an isolated tornado threat could also develop. On Friday, the shortwave trough is forecast to become negatively tilted, moving through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. A corridor of moderate instability is forecast from the southern Plains northward into the Upper Midwest. As a mid-level jet moves over the warm sector during the day, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Large hail, wind damage, and a few tornadoes are expected across parts of the warm sector Friday afternoon and evening. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday and Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast in the western U.S., with a mid-level anticyclone located over the eastern half of the nation. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex north-northeastward to the Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the warm sector each afternoon and evening, mainly in areas that have sufficient deep-layer shear. However, model spread is significant at this range, and predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain in place across the Rockies on Wednesday, and then move eastward across the Great Plains on Thursday. To the west of the ridge, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Desert Southwest on Thursday. At the surface on Thursday, a well-developed dryline is forecast from west Texas northward to west-central Kansas. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the mid to late afternoon to the east of the dryline. Large hail and wind damage are expected to be the primary threats, although an isolated tornado threat could also develop. On Friday, the shortwave trough is forecast to become negatively tilted, moving through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. A corridor of moderate instability is forecast from the southern Plains northward into the Upper Midwest. As a mid-level jet moves over the warm sector during the day, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Large hail, wind damage, and a few tornadoes are expected across parts of the warm sector Friday afternoon and evening. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday and Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast in the western U.S., with a mid-level anticyclone located over the eastern half of the nation. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex north-northeastward to the Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the warm sector each afternoon and evening, mainly in areas that have sufficient deep-layer shear. However, model spread is significant at this range, and predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to remain in place across the Rockies on Wednesday, and then move eastward across the Great Plains on Thursday. To the west of the ridge, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Desert Southwest on Thursday. At the surface on Thursday, a well-developed dryline is forecast from west Texas northward to west-central Kansas. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the mid to late afternoon to the east of the dryline. Large hail and wind damage are expected to be the primary threats, although an isolated tornado threat could also develop. On Friday, the shortwave trough is forecast to become negatively tilted, moving through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. A corridor of moderate instability is forecast from the southern Plains northward into the Upper Midwest. As a mid-level jet moves over the warm sector during the day, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Large hail, wind damage, and a few tornadoes are expected across parts of the warm sector Friday afternoon and evening. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday and Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast in the western U.S., with a mid-level anticyclone located over the eastern half of the nation. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex north-northeastward to the Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the warm sector each afternoon and evening, mainly in areas that have sufficient deep-layer shear. However, model spread is significant at this range, and predictability remains low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing strong wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to gradually build into the Rockies on Tuesday. At the surface, a slow-moving front should be located from northwest Texas extending east-northeastward across Oklahoma into the Ozarks. Surface dewpoints near the front are forecast to be near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop across northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. Within this pocket of instability, forecast soundings for 00Z/Wednesday have MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, 40 knots of effective shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates above 8 C/km. This would support an isolated severe threat. However, a shallow capping inversion is evident around 750 mb. This will likely keep convective initiation very isolated, making any severe threat conditional. ..Broyles.. 04/21/2024 Read more