Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive post-frontal air mass, characterized by cool surface temperatures and weak surface winds, will encompass much of the central and eastern CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist over the Southwest, though weak surface winds and marginal fuels will also limit fire-weather potential here. ..Weinman.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0491 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IN...NORTHERN KY...FAR SOUTHWEST OH
Mesoscale Discussion 0491 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Areas affected...Parts of southeast IN...northern KY...far southwest OH Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129... Valid 190408Z - 190615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging-wind threat continues, but should become increasingly isolated with time. DISCUSSION...A well-organized QLCS is moving quickly across southern IN and northern KY late tonight, with recent observed wind gusts of 35-45 kt. While some weakening has been noted compared to earlier this evening, convection is still keeping pace with the gust front along the north-south oriented portion of the QLCS, and some damaging-wind threat will near the edge of WW 129 by 05 UTC. However, downstream instability is quite weak, and convective intensity should continue to generally weaken with time, resulting in an increasingly isolated/marginal severe threat into the early overnight hours. As a result, while local watch extension of WW 129 may need to be considered (depending on observational trends), downstream watch issuance is currently considered unlikely. ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND... LAT...LON 39458582 39478479 39328441 38478443 37858485 37598530 37558585 37548626 37658657 38078638 38368614 38718595 39458582 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... A shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday, as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located across south-central and southeast Texas. South of this boundary, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected. ECMWF forecast soundings in south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40 knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... A shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday, as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located across south-central and southeast Texas. South of this boundary, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected. ECMWF forecast soundings in south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40 knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... A shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday, as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located across south-central and southeast Texas. South of this boundary, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected. ECMWF forecast soundings in south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40 knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... A shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday, as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located across south-central and southeast Texas. South of this boundary, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected. ECMWF forecast soundings in south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40 knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... A shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday, as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located across south-central and southeast Texas. South of this boundary, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected. ECMWF forecast soundings in south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40 knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... A shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday, as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located across south-central and southeast Texas. South of this boundary, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected. ECMWF forecast soundings in south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40 knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast... Strong upper trough is forecast to advance from the upper MS Valley into ON/MI by the end of the period as a 500mb speed max translates from southern MN into the northern OH Valley. This evolution will necessitate substantial height falls downstream across southeastern Canada, extending into the upper OH Valley late. Southern extent of this forcing will only glance the middle Appalachians and lower latitudes will remain free of significant large-scale forcing through Saturday morning. As a result, boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental for convective development. While weak frontal convergence and topographic influences will also prove beneficial, convection is not expected to appreciably develop/intensify until surface readings approach convective temperatures. Latest model guidance suggests much of the southern Appalachians into coastal SC will warm rapidly today. Negligible inhibition will be noted across this region by early afternoon and isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop near the frontal zone, across higher elevations of the Appalachians. This activity will propagate toward the Piedmont before weakening with loss of daytime heating. ...TX... Surface front has progressed into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into extreme northern Mexico, northwest of DRT. This boundary will likely advance farther southwest into the higher terrain of northern Mexico where it will stall along the northeast slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental range. The primary corridor of low-level convergence will be within upslope regions of the higher terrain west of the international border. While the boundary layer east of the Sierra Madre should remain a bit stable, convection will develop across the highest slopes then propagate southeast toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. It's not entirely clear whether this activity will maintain intensity as it spreads toward TX. At this time will not introduce severe probabilities but this area may warrant a MRGL risk in later outlooks if conditions become more favorable. Farther north during the overnight hours, weak low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from northwest TX into the Red River region. Elevated convection is expected to develop across this region as 850mb parcels are expected to be favorably moist/buoyant for thunderstorm development. Given the lack of meaningful large-scale forcing, there is some concern that updrafts may not be as robust as otherwise possible. While some hail could be generated with this activity, overall severe threat appears a bit too low to warrant severe probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast... Strong upper trough is forecast to advance from the upper MS Valley into ON/MI by the end of the period as a 500mb speed max translates from southern MN into the northern OH Valley. This evolution will necessitate substantial height falls downstream across southeastern Canada, extending into the upper OH Valley late. Southern extent of this forcing will only glance the middle Appalachians and lower latitudes will remain free of significant large-scale forcing through Saturday morning. As a result, boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental for convective development. While weak frontal convergence and topographic influences will also prove beneficial, convection is not expected to appreciably develop/intensify until surface readings approach convective temperatures. Latest model guidance suggests much of the southern Appalachians into coastal SC will warm rapidly today. Negligible inhibition will be noted across this region by early afternoon and isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop near the frontal zone, across higher elevations of the Appalachians. This activity will propagate toward the Piedmont before weakening with loss of daytime heating. ...TX... Surface front has progressed into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into extreme northern Mexico, northwest of DRT. This boundary will likely advance farther southwest into the higher terrain of northern Mexico where it will stall along the northeast slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental range. The primary corridor of low-level convergence will be within upslope regions of the higher terrain west of the international border. While the boundary layer east of the Sierra Madre should remain a bit stable, convection will develop across the highest slopes then propagate southeast toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. It's not entirely clear whether this activity will maintain intensity as it spreads toward TX. At this time will not introduce severe probabilities but this area may warrant a MRGL risk in later outlooks if conditions become more favorable. Farther north during the overnight hours, weak low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from northwest TX into the Red River region. Elevated convection is expected to develop across this region as 850mb parcels are expected to be favorably moist/buoyant for thunderstorm development. Given the lack of meaningful large-scale forcing, there is some concern that updrafts may not be as robust as otherwise possible. While some hail could be generated with this activity, overall severe threat appears a bit too low to warrant severe probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast... Strong upper trough is forecast to advance from the upper MS Valley into ON/MI by the end of the period as a 500mb speed max translates from southern MN into the northern OH Valley. This evolution will necessitate substantial height falls downstream across southeastern Canada, extending into the upper OH Valley late. Southern extent of this forcing will only glance the middle Appalachians and lower latitudes will remain free of significant large-scale forcing through Saturday morning. As a result, boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental for convective development. While weak frontal convergence and topographic influences will also prove beneficial, convection is not expected to appreciably develop/intensify until surface readings approach convective temperatures. Latest model guidance suggests much of the southern Appalachians into coastal SC will warm rapidly today. Negligible inhibition will be noted across this region by early afternoon and isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop near the frontal zone, across higher elevations of the Appalachians. This activity will propagate toward the Piedmont before weakening with loss of daytime heating. ...TX... Surface front has progressed into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into extreme northern Mexico, northwest of DRT. This boundary will likely advance farther southwest into the higher terrain of northern Mexico where it will stall along the northeast slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental range. The primary corridor of low-level convergence will be within upslope regions of the higher terrain west of the international border. While the boundary layer east of the Sierra Madre should remain a bit stable, convection will develop across the highest slopes then propagate southeast toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. It's not entirely clear whether this activity will maintain intensity as it spreads toward TX. At this time will not introduce severe probabilities but this area may warrant a MRGL risk in later outlooks if conditions become more favorable. Farther north during the overnight hours, weak low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from northwest TX into the Red River region. Elevated convection is expected to develop across this region as 850mb parcels are expected to be favorably moist/buoyant for thunderstorm development. Given the lack of meaningful large-scale forcing, there is some concern that updrafts may not be as robust as otherwise possible. While some hail could be generated with this activity, overall severe threat appears a bit too low to warrant severe probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast... Strong upper trough is forecast to advance from the upper MS Valley into ON/MI by the end of the period as a 500mb speed max translates from southern MN into the northern OH Valley. This evolution will necessitate substantial height falls downstream across southeastern Canada, extending into the upper OH Valley late. Southern extent of this forcing will only glance the middle Appalachians and lower latitudes will remain free of significant large-scale forcing through Saturday morning. As a result, boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental for convective development. While weak frontal convergence and topographic influences will also prove beneficial, convection is not expected to appreciably develop/intensify until surface readings approach convective temperatures. Latest model guidance suggests much of the southern Appalachians into coastal SC will warm rapidly today. Negligible inhibition will be noted across this region by early afternoon and isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop near the frontal zone, across higher elevations of the Appalachians. This activity will propagate toward the Piedmont before weakening with loss of daytime heating. ...TX... Surface front has progressed into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into extreme northern Mexico, northwest of DRT. This boundary will likely advance farther southwest into the higher terrain of northern Mexico where it will stall along the northeast slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental range. The primary corridor of low-level convergence will be within upslope regions of the higher terrain west of the international border. While the boundary layer east of the Sierra Madre should remain a bit stable, convection will develop across the highest slopes then propagate southeast toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. It's not entirely clear whether this activity will maintain intensity as it spreads toward TX. At this time will not introduce severe probabilities but this area may warrant a MRGL risk in later outlooks if conditions become more favorable. Farther north during the overnight hours, weak low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from northwest TX into the Red River region. Elevated convection is expected to develop across this region as 850mb parcels are expected to be favorably moist/buoyant for thunderstorm development. Given the lack of meaningful large-scale forcing, there is some concern that updrafts may not be as robust as otherwise possible. While some hail could be generated with this activity, overall severe threat appears a bit too low to warrant severe probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast... Strong upper trough is forecast to advance from the upper MS Valley into ON/MI by the end of the period as a 500mb speed max translates from southern MN into the northern OH Valley. This evolution will necessitate substantial height falls downstream across southeastern Canada, extending into the upper OH Valley late. Southern extent of this forcing will only glance the middle Appalachians and lower latitudes will remain free of significant large-scale forcing through Saturday morning. As a result, boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental for convective development. While weak frontal convergence and topographic influences will also prove beneficial, convection is not expected to appreciably develop/intensify until surface readings approach convective temperatures. Latest model guidance suggests much of the southern Appalachians into coastal SC will warm rapidly today. Negligible inhibition will be noted across this region by early afternoon and isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop near the frontal zone, across higher elevations of the Appalachians. This activity will propagate toward the Piedmont before weakening with loss of daytime heating. ...TX... Surface front has progressed into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into extreme northern Mexico, northwest of DRT. This boundary will likely advance farther southwest into the higher terrain of northern Mexico where it will stall along the northeast slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental range. The primary corridor of low-level convergence will be within upslope regions of the higher terrain west of the international border. While the boundary layer east of the Sierra Madre should remain a bit stable, convection will develop across the highest slopes then propagate southeast toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. It's not entirely clear whether this activity will maintain intensity as it spreads toward TX. At this time will not introduce severe probabilities but this area may warrant a MRGL risk in later outlooks if conditions become more favorable. Farther north during the overnight hours, weak low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from northwest TX into the Red River region. Elevated convection is expected to develop across this region as 850mb parcels are expected to be favorably moist/buoyant for thunderstorm development. Given the lack of meaningful large-scale forcing, there is some concern that updrafts may not be as robust as otherwise possible. While some hail could be generated with this activity, overall severe threat appears a bit too low to warrant severe probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/19/2024 Read more