Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0481 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0481 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Areas affected...parts of central and southern Missouri into western Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181708Z - 181915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorms is forecast across the central Missouri vicinity this afternoon, spreading into western Illinois with time. WW issuance is likely to be required in the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a cold front extending southwestward from a low southeast of Kansas City, across far southeastern Kansas, and a warm front extending eastward across central Missouri. The warm front continues to move slowly northward, at the northern edge of a moist (60s dewpoints) boundary layer. In the wake of a well-defined, southeastward-moving gravity wave, preceding the frontal zone by about 100 miles, clearing in the cloud cover will continue to allow diurnal heating of the moistening boundary layer. Resulting moderate destabilization through the afternoon will support gradual development of storms -- initially in proximity to both frontal zones. With time, CAMs suggest some warm-sector/pre-frontal storm development, with any such storm more likely to exhibit supercell structures, given a background kinematic environment supportive of updraft rotation. Along with locally damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two, large hail near or in excess of golf-ball size would be possible. However, more widespread severe risk may preferentially evolve with upscale-growing convection near the low and trailing cold front. Eventually, a broken line of storms is anticipated, accompanied by potential for more widespread damaging winds, along with hail and perhaps a QLCS tornado or two as it moves eastward across eastern Missouri and eventually into Illinois. ..Goss/Mosier.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 38309410 39019288 39389094 39858891 38388828 37518923 37379383 37839429 38309410 Read more

WW 0125 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0125 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0125 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0125 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 18 17:11:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are still possible tomorrow (Friday) over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will traverse Ontario and Quebec, with mainly zonal flow overspreading the central and northern CONUS tomorrow (Friday). Meanwhile, a smaller mid-level trough is poised to eject into the southern High Plains at the end of the period. A surface cold front will sweep across the eastern U.S. in advance of the first mid-level trough, providing enough low-level ascent to support scattered strong thunderstorm development given adequate buoyancy and vertical wind shear preceding the front. For Friday night into Saturday morning, the approach of the southwestern mid-level trough will encourage low-level jet development over the southern Plains, with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected along the low-level jet terminus, where low-level convergence will be strongest. ...Parts of the Southeast toward the Carolina Piedmont... Surface temperatures are expected to warm above 80 F amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the surface cold front, boosting SBCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg across the warm sector. Modest westerly 500 mb flow from the glancing mid-level trough will overspread a 15-20 kt southwesterly 850 mb wind field, resulting in elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, organized multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate ahead of the cold front by afternoon, accompanied by occasional instances of hail and gusty winds. A couple instances of severe hail/wind could occur with some of the stronger storms, especially if a more pronounced supercell structure can become established. ...Central and northern Texas... A strongly capped boundary layer is expected to reside across much of TX through the period, limiting the chances for surface-based convective initiation. As the low level jet strengthens overnight, the jet terminus is expected to become situated somewhere near the Red River, where isentropic ascent should lift elevated buoyant parcels to their LFC and initiate scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms. LFCs are expected to be between 700-600 mb, which should restrict CAPE to thin profiles, limiting severe hail production. Nonetheless, given elongated hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates, at least small hail is possible and a sparse instance of severe hail cannot be ruled out, though the coverage seems too isolated/localized to warrant probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are still possible tomorrow (Friday) over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will traverse Ontario and Quebec, with mainly zonal flow overspreading the central and northern CONUS tomorrow (Friday). Meanwhile, a smaller mid-level trough is poised to eject into the southern High Plains at the end of the period. A surface cold front will sweep across the eastern U.S. in advance of the first mid-level trough, providing enough low-level ascent to support scattered strong thunderstorm development given adequate buoyancy and vertical wind shear preceding the front. For Friday night into Saturday morning, the approach of the southwestern mid-level trough will encourage low-level jet development over the southern Plains, with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected along the low-level jet terminus, where low-level convergence will be strongest. ...Parts of the Southeast toward the Carolina Piedmont... Surface temperatures are expected to warm above 80 F amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the surface cold front, boosting SBCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg across the warm sector. Modest westerly 500 mb flow from the glancing mid-level trough will overspread a 15-20 kt southwesterly 850 mb wind field, resulting in elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, organized multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate ahead of the cold front by afternoon, accompanied by occasional instances of hail and gusty winds. A couple instances of severe hail/wind could occur with some of the stronger storms, especially if a more pronounced supercell structure can become established. ...Central and northern Texas... A strongly capped boundary layer is expected to reside across much of TX through the period, limiting the chances for surface-based convective initiation. As the low level jet strengthens overnight, the jet terminus is expected to become situated somewhere near the Red River, where isentropic ascent should lift elevated buoyant parcels to their LFC and initiate scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms. LFCs are expected to be between 700-600 mb, which should restrict CAPE to thin profiles, limiting severe hail production. Nonetheless, given elongated hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates, at least small hail is possible and a sparse instance of severe hail cannot be ruled out, though the coverage seems too isolated/localized to warrant probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are still possible tomorrow (Friday) over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will traverse Ontario and Quebec, with mainly zonal flow overspreading the central and northern CONUS tomorrow (Friday). Meanwhile, a smaller mid-level trough is poised to eject into the southern High Plains at the end of the period. A surface cold front will sweep across the eastern U.S. in advance of the first mid-level trough, providing enough low-level ascent to support scattered strong thunderstorm development given adequate buoyancy and vertical wind shear preceding the front. For Friday night into Saturday morning, the approach of the southwestern mid-level trough will encourage low-level jet development over the southern Plains, with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected along the low-level jet terminus, where low-level convergence will be strongest. ...Parts of the Southeast toward the Carolina Piedmont... Surface temperatures are expected to warm above 80 F amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the surface cold front, boosting SBCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg across the warm sector. Modest westerly 500 mb flow from the glancing mid-level trough will overspread a 15-20 kt southwesterly 850 mb wind field, resulting in elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, organized multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate ahead of the cold front by afternoon, accompanied by occasional instances of hail and gusty winds. A couple instances of severe hail/wind could occur with some of the stronger storms, especially if a more pronounced supercell structure can become established. ...Central and northern Texas... A strongly capped boundary layer is expected to reside across much of TX through the period, limiting the chances for surface-based convective initiation. As the low level jet strengthens overnight, the jet terminus is expected to become situated somewhere near the Red River, where isentropic ascent should lift elevated buoyant parcels to their LFC and initiate scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms. LFCs are expected to be between 700-600 mb, which should restrict CAPE to thin profiles, limiting severe hail production. Nonetheless, given elongated hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates, at least small hail is possible and a sparse instance of severe hail cannot be ruled out, though the coverage seems too isolated/localized to warrant probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are still possible tomorrow (Friday) over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will traverse Ontario and Quebec, with mainly zonal flow overspreading the central and northern CONUS tomorrow (Friday). Meanwhile, a smaller mid-level trough is poised to eject into the southern High Plains at the end of the period. A surface cold front will sweep across the eastern U.S. in advance of the first mid-level trough, providing enough low-level ascent to support scattered strong thunderstorm development given adequate buoyancy and vertical wind shear preceding the front. For Friday night into Saturday morning, the approach of the southwestern mid-level trough will encourage low-level jet development over the southern Plains, with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected along the low-level jet terminus, where low-level convergence will be strongest. ...Parts of the Southeast toward the Carolina Piedmont... Surface temperatures are expected to warm above 80 F amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the surface cold front, boosting SBCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg across the warm sector. Modest westerly 500 mb flow from the glancing mid-level trough will overspread a 15-20 kt southwesterly 850 mb wind field, resulting in elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, organized multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate ahead of the cold front by afternoon, accompanied by occasional instances of hail and gusty winds. A couple instances of severe hail/wind could occur with some of the stronger storms, especially if a more pronounced supercell structure can become established. ...Central and northern Texas... A strongly capped boundary layer is expected to reside across much of TX through the period, limiting the chances for surface-based convective initiation. As the low level jet strengthens overnight, the jet terminus is expected to become situated somewhere near the Red River, where isentropic ascent should lift elevated buoyant parcels to their LFC and initiate scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms. LFCs are expected to be between 700-600 mb, which should restrict CAPE to thin profiles, limiting severe hail production. Nonetheless, given elongated hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates, at least small hail is possible and a sparse instance of severe hail cannot be ruled out, though the coverage seems too isolated/localized to warrant probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are still possible tomorrow (Friday) over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will traverse Ontario and Quebec, with mainly zonal flow overspreading the central and northern CONUS tomorrow (Friday). Meanwhile, a smaller mid-level trough is poised to eject into the southern High Plains at the end of the period. A surface cold front will sweep across the eastern U.S. in advance of the first mid-level trough, providing enough low-level ascent to support scattered strong thunderstorm development given adequate buoyancy and vertical wind shear preceding the front. For Friday night into Saturday morning, the approach of the southwestern mid-level trough will encourage low-level jet development over the southern Plains, with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected along the low-level jet terminus, where low-level convergence will be strongest. ...Parts of the Southeast toward the Carolina Piedmont... Surface temperatures are expected to warm above 80 F amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the surface cold front, boosting SBCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg across the warm sector. Modest westerly 500 mb flow from the glancing mid-level trough will overspread a 15-20 kt southwesterly 850 mb wind field, resulting in elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, organized multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate ahead of the cold front by afternoon, accompanied by occasional instances of hail and gusty winds. A couple instances of severe hail/wind could occur with some of the stronger storms, especially if a more pronounced supercell structure can become established. ...Central and northern Texas... A strongly capped boundary layer is expected to reside across much of TX through the period, limiting the chances for surface-based convective initiation. As the low level jet strengthens overnight, the jet terminus is expected to become situated somewhere near the Red River, where isentropic ascent should lift elevated buoyant parcels to their LFC and initiate scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms. LFCs are expected to be between 700-600 mb, which should restrict CAPE to thin profiles, limiting severe hail production. Nonetheless, given elongated hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates, at least small hail is possible and a sparse instance of severe hail cannot be ruled out, though the coverage seems too isolated/localized to warrant probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are still possible tomorrow (Friday) over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will traverse Ontario and Quebec, with mainly zonal flow overspreading the central and northern CONUS tomorrow (Friday). Meanwhile, a smaller mid-level trough is poised to eject into the southern High Plains at the end of the period. A surface cold front will sweep across the eastern U.S. in advance of the first mid-level trough, providing enough low-level ascent to support scattered strong thunderstorm development given adequate buoyancy and vertical wind shear preceding the front. For Friday night into Saturday morning, the approach of the southwestern mid-level trough will encourage low-level jet development over the southern Plains, with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected along the low-level jet terminus, where low-level convergence will be strongest. ...Parts of the Southeast toward the Carolina Piedmont... Surface temperatures are expected to warm above 80 F amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the surface cold front, boosting SBCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg across the warm sector. Modest westerly 500 mb flow from the glancing mid-level trough will overspread a 15-20 kt southwesterly 850 mb wind field, resulting in elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, organized multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate ahead of the cold front by afternoon, accompanied by occasional instances of hail and gusty winds. A couple instances of severe hail/wind could occur with some of the stronger storms, especially if a more pronounced supercell structure can become established. ...Central and northern Texas... A strongly capped boundary layer is expected to reside across much of TX through the period, limiting the chances for surface-based convective initiation. As the low level jet strengthens overnight, the jet terminus is expected to become situated somewhere near the Red River, where isentropic ascent should lift elevated buoyant parcels to their LFC and initiate scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms. LFCs are expected to be between 700-600 mb, which should restrict CAPE to thin profiles, limiting severe hail production. Nonetheless, given elongated hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates, at least small hail is possible and a sparse instance of severe hail cannot be ruled out, though the coverage seems too isolated/localized to warrant probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are still possible tomorrow (Friday) over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will traverse Ontario and Quebec, with mainly zonal flow overspreading the central and northern CONUS tomorrow (Friday). Meanwhile, a smaller mid-level trough is poised to eject into the southern High Plains at the end of the period. A surface cold front will sweep across the eastern U.S. in advance of the first mid-level trough, providing enough low-level ascent to support scattered strong thunderstorm development given adequate buoyancy and vertical wind shear preceding the front. For Friday night into Saturday morning, the approach of the southwestern mid-level trough will encourage low-level jet development over the southern Plains, with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected along the low-level jet terminus, where low-level convergence will be strongest. ...Parts of the Southeast toward the Carolina Piedmont... Surface temperatures are expected to warm above 80 F amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the surface cold front, boosting SBCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg across the warm sector. Modest westerly 500 mb flow from the glancing mid-level trough will overspread a 15-20 kt southwesterly 850 mb wind field, resulting in elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, organized multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate ahead of the cold front by afternoon, accompanied by occasional instances of hail and gusty winds. A couple instances of severe hail/wind could occur with some of the stronger storms, especially if a more pronounced supercell structure can become established. ...Central and northern Texas... A strongly capped boundary layer is expected to reside across much of TX through the period, limiting the chances for surface-based convective initiation. As the low level jet strengthens overnight, the jet terminus is expected to become situated somewhere near the Red River, where isentropic ascent should lift elevated buoyant parcels to their LFC and initiate scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms. LFCs are expected to be between 700-600 mb, which should restrict CAPE to thin profiles, limiting severe hail production. Nonetheless, given elongated hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates, at least small hail is possible and a sparse instance of severe hail cannot be ruled out, though the coverage seems too isolated/localized to warrant probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are still possible tomorrow (Friday) over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will traverse Ontario and Quebec, with mainly zonal flow overspreading the central and northern CONUS tomorrow (Friday). Meanwhile, a smaller mid-level trough is poised to eject into the southern High Plains at the end of the period. A surface cold front will sweep across the eastern U.S. in advance of the first mid-level trough, providing enough low-level ascent to support scattered strong thunderstorm development given adequate buoyancy and vertical wind shear preceding the front. For Friday night into Saturday morning, the approach of the southwestern mid-level trough will encourage low-level jet development over the southern Plains, with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected along the low-level jet terminus, where low-level convergence will be strongest. ...Parts of the Southeast toward the Carolina Piedmont... Surface temperatures are expected to warm above 80 F amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the surface cold front, boosting SBCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg across the warm sector. Modest westerly 500 mb flow from the glancing mid-level trough will overspread a 15-20 kt southwesterly 850 mb wind field, resulting in elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, organized multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate ahead of the cold front by afternoon, accompanied by occasional instances of hail and gusty winds. A couple instances of severe hail/wind could occur with some of the stronger storms, especially if a more pronounced supercell structure can become established. ...Central and northern Texas... A strongly capped boundary layer is expected to reside across much of TX through the period, limiting the chances for surface-based convective initiation. As the low level jet strengthens overnight, the jet terminus is expected to become situated somewhere near the Red River, where isentropic ascent should lift elevated buoyant parcels to their LFC and initiate scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms. LFCs are expected to be between 700-600 mb, which should restrict CAPE to thin profiles, limiting severe hail production. Nonetheless, given elongated hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates, at least small hail is possible and a sparse instance of severe hail cannot be ruled out, though the coverage seems too isolated/localized to warrant probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 04/18/2024 Read more