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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the US as a broad low-amplitude trough moves over the central CONUS. Weak ridging is expected farther south which will force stronger flow aloft to remain displaced over the northern third of the country. At the surface, a low will move eastward with the broad trough while a cold front moves south over much of the Plains. Much cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and weaker winds are expected within the post-frontal air mass. The only exception to this may be across far northeast NM and southern CO where the air mass is expected to remain drier and could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Otherwise, fire-weather concerns appear unlikely over much of the CONUS today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the US as a broad low-amplitude trough moves over the central CONUS. Weak ridging is expected farther south which will force stronger flow aloft to remain displaced over the northern third of the country. At the surface, a low will move eastward with the broad trough while a cold front moves south over much of the Plains. Much cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and weaker winds are expected within the post-frontal air mass. The only exception to this may be across far northeast NM and southern CO where the air mass is expected to remain drier and could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Otherwise, fire-weather concerns appear unlikely over much of the CONUS today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the US as a broad low-amplitude trough moves over the central CONUS. Weak ridging is expected farther south which will force stronger flow aloft to remain displaced over the northern third of the country. At the surface, a low will move eastward with the broad trough while a cold front moves south over much of the Plains. Much cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and weaker winds are expected within the post-frontal air mass. The only exception to this may be across far northeast NM and southern CO where the air mass is expected to remain drier and could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Otherwise, fire-weather concerns appear unlikely over much of the CONUS today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the US as a broad low-amplitude trough moves over the central CONUS. Weak ridging is expected farther south which will force stronger flow aloft to remain displaced over the northern third of the country. At the surface, a low will move eastward with the broad trough while a cold front moves south over much of the Plains. Much cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and weaker winds are expected within the post-frontal air mass. The only exception to this may be across far northeast NM and southern CO where the air mass is expected to remain drier and could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Otherwise, fire-weather concerns appear unlikely over much of the CONUS today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0480 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0480 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0931 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Areas affected...northern Louisiana into southern Arkansas and western Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181431Z - 181630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Risk for hail -- and eventually locally damaging wind gusts -- will gradually expand across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana this morning, spreading into western Mississippi with time. Marginal/localized nature of the risk in the short term should preclude any need for short-term WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Slightly elevated convection continues to evolve across the Arkansas/Louisiana border area this morning, within a zone of QG ascent ahead of a subtle mid-level impulse moving across east Texas per morning water vapor imagery. A few transiently stronger cores are noted, aided by moderately strong flow through the middle troposphere amidst an environment characterized by about 1000 J/kg most-unstable CAPE. The primary short-term risk remains marginally severe hail, with a couple of the more vigorous/long-lived updrafts. However, filtered insolation through an existing high-cloud deck will yield enough surface heating to allow storms to become surface-based with time. As such, risk for a couple of stronger gusts will manifest as well. With that said, risk should remain local/limited, given lack of a focused low-level ascent, suggesting that WW issuance remains unlikely through midday. ..Goss/Mosier.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 32439406 33999225 34549114 34238993 33078995 32639031 32149288 32179394 32439406 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts to 70 mph, large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, and a couple of tornadoes are expected mainly this afternoon into early tonight across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. More isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible farther south from northern Mississippi and Arkansas into central Texas. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys through tonight... An occluded cyclone will move eastward into western ON, as part of a deep mid-upper low over western ON/northern MN by the end of the period. Farther to the south, a secondary cyclone will move across MO to southeast Lower MI in association with an embedded jet on the southern periphery of the deep midlevel low to the north, as a cold front progresses southeastward across the mid MS Valley and the southern Plains. Ahead of the secondary low and cold front, a moistening warm sector will spread northeastward from MO to southern/central IL and southwest IN (boundary-layer dewpoints well into the 60s) beneath lingering midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km. The net result will be an unstable warm sector with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg and only weak convective inhibition. The remnants of morning convection across MO could be rejuvenated by midday-early afternoon, with an intensifying band of storms expected to spread east-southeastward through the afternoon across the mid MS Valley and into tonight across the lower OH Valley. The combination of moderate-strong buoyancy and sufficient hodograph length/low-level curvature will support a mix of embedded supercells and bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph, large hail of 1-2.5 inches in diameter, and a couple of tornadoes. ...AR/southeast OK/north and central TX this afternoon/evening... Surface heating within an already moist air mass (68-72 F boundary-layer dewpoints) will drive strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) this afternoon ahead of a surface cold front. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by about 21z along the front from northwest AR across southeast OK into north and central TX. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for some supercell structures capable of producing isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter), along with damaging outflow gusts given the potential for strong downdrafts. These storms will last a few hours into late evening and then weaken as convective inhibition increases. ...Southeast AR into northern MS this afternoon/evening... An embedded speed max noted over north TX in the subtropical stream will progress eastward toward the MS River by late afternoon. Weak ascent preceding the wave within an unstable warm sector, along with surface heating in cloud breaks, could be sufficient for widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. If a few storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts to 70 mph, large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, and a couple of tornadoes are expected mainly this afternoon into early tonight across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. More isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible farther south from northern Mississippi and Arkansas into central Texas. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys through tonight... An occluded cyclone will move eastward into western ON, as part of a deep mid-upper low over western ON/northern MN by the end of the period. Farther to the south, a secondary cyclone will move across MO to southeast Lower MI in association with an embedded jet on the southern periphery of the deep midlevel low to the north, as a cold front progresses southeastward across the mid MS Valley and the southern Plains. Ahead of the secondary low and cold front, a moistening warm sector will spread northeastward from MO to southern/central IL and southwest IN (boundary-layer dewpoints well into the 60s) beneath lingering midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km. The net result will be an unstable warm sector with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg and only weak convective inhibition. The remnants of morning convection across MO could be rejuvenated by midday-early afternoon, with an intensifying band of storms expected to spread east-southeastward through the afternoon across the mid MS Valley and into tonight across the lower OH Valley. The combination of moderate-strong buoyancy and sufficient hodograph length/low-level curvature will support a mix of embedded supercells and bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph, large hail of 1-2.5 inches in diameter, and a couple of tornadoes. ...AR/southeast OK/north and central TX this afternoon/evening... Surface heating within an already moist air mass (68-72 F boundary-layer dewpoints) will drive strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) this afternoon ahead of a surface cold front. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by about 21z along the front from northwest AR across southeast OK into north and central TX. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for some supercell structures capable of producing isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter), along with damaging outflow gusts given the potential for strong downdrafts. These storms will last a few hours into late evening and then weaken as convective inhibition increases. ...Southeast AR into northern MS this afternoon/evening... An embedded speed max noted over north TX in the subtropical stream will progress eastward toward the MS River by late afternoon. Weak ascent preceding the wave within an unstable warm sector, along with surface heating in cloud breaks, could be sufficient for widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. If a few storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts to 70 mph, large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, and a couple of tornadoes are expected mainly this afternoon into early tonight across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. More isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible farther south from northern Mississippi and Arkansas into central Texas. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys through tonight... An occluded cyclone will move eastward into western ON, as part of a deep mid-upper low over western ON/northern MN by the end of the period. Farther to the south, a secondary cyclone will move across MO to southeast Lower MI in association with an embedded jet on the southern periphery of the deep midlevel low to the north, as a cold front progresses southeastward across the mid MS Valley and the southern Plains. Ahead of the secondary low and cold front, a moistening warm sector will spread northeastward from MO to southern/central IL and southwest IN (boundary-layer dewpoints well into the 60s) beneath lingering midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km. The net result will be an unstable warm sector with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg and only weak convective inhibition. The remnants of morning convection across MO could be rejuvenated by midday-early afternoon, with an intensifying band of storms expected to spread east-southeastward through the afternoon across the mid MS Valley and into tonight across the lower OH Valley. The combination of moderate-strong buoyancy and sufficient hodograph length/low-level curvature will support a mix of embedded supercells and bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph, large hail of 1-2.5 inches in diameter, and a couple of tornadoes. ...AR/southeast OK/north and central TX this afternoon/evening... Surface heating within an already moist air mass (68-72 F boundary-layer dewpoints) will drive strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) this afternoon ahead of a surface cold front. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by about 21z along the front from northwest AR across southeast OK into north and central TX. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for some supercell structures capable of producing isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter), along with damaging outflow gusts given the potential for strong downdrafts. These storms will last a few hours into late evening and then weaken as convective inhibition increases. ...Southeast AR into northern MS this afternoon/evening... An embedded speed max noted over north TX in the subtropical stream will progress eastward toward the MS River by late afternoon. Weak ascent preceding the wave within an unstable warm sector, along with surface heating in cloud breaks, could be sufficient for widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. If a few storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts to 70 mph, large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, and a couple of tornadoes are expected mainly this afternoon into early tonight across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. More isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible farther south from northern Mississippi and Arkansas into central Texas. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys through tonight... An occluded cyclone will move eastward into western ON, as part of a deep mid-upper low over western ON/northern MN by the end of the period. Farther to the south, a secondary cyclone will move across MO to southeast Lower MI in association with an embedded jet on the southern periphery of the deep midlevel low to the north, as a cold front progresses southeastward across the mid MS Valley and the southern Plains. Ahead of the secondary low and cold front, a moistening warm sector will spread northeastward from MO to southern/central IL and southwest IN (boundary-layer dewpoints well into the 60s) beneath lingering midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km. The net result will be an unstable warm sector with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg and only weak convective inhibition. The remnants of morning convection across MO could be rejuvenated by midday-early afternoon, with an intensifying band of storms expected to spread east-southeastward through the afternoon across the mid MS Valley and into tonight across the lower OH Valley. The combination of moderate-strong buoyancy and sufficient hodograph length/low-level curvature will support a mix of embedded supercells and bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph, large hail of 1-2.5 inches in diameter, and a couple of tornadoes. ...AR/southeast OK/north and central TX this afternoon/evening... Surface heating within an already moist air mass (68-72 F boundary-layer dewpoints) will drive strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) this afternoon ahead of a surface cold front. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by about 21z along the front from northwest AR across southeast OK into north and central TX. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for some supercell structures capable of producing isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter), along with damaging outflow gusts given the potential for strong downdrafts. These storms will last a few hours into late evening and then weaken as convective inhibition increases. ...Southeast AR into northern MS this afternoon/evening... An embedded speed max noted over north TX in the subtropical stream will progress eastward toward the MS River by late afternoon. Weak ascent preceding the wave within an unstable warm sector, along with surface heating in cloud breaks, could be sufficient for widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. If a few storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts to 70 mph, large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, and a couple of tornadoes are expected mainly this afternoon into early tonight across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. More isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible farther south from northern Mississippi and Arkansas into central Texas. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys through tonight... An occluded cyclone will move eastward into western ON, as part of a deep mid-upper low over western ON/northern MN by the end of the period. Farther to the south, a secondary cyclone will move across MO to southeast Lower MI in association with an embedded jet on the southern periphery of the deep midlevel low to the north, as a cold front progresses southeastward across the mid MS Valley and the southern Plains. Ahead of the secondary low and cold front, a moistening warm sector will spread northeastward from MO to southern/central IL and southwest IN (boundary-layer dewpoints well into the 60s) beneath lingering midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km. The net result will be an unstable warm sector with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg and only weak convective inhibition. The remnants of morning convection across MO could be rejuvenated by midday-early afternoon, with an intensifying band of storms expected to spread east-southeastward through the afternoon across the mid MS Valley and into tonight across the lower OH Valley. The combination of moderate-strong buoyancy and sufficient hodograph length/low-level curvature will support a mix of embedded supercells and bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph, large hail of 1-2.5 inches in diameter, and a couple of tornadoes. ...AR/southeast OK/north and central TX this afternoon/evening... Surface heating within an already moist air mass (68-72 F boundary-layer dewpoints) will drive strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) this afternoon ahead of a surface cold front. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by about 21z along the front from northwest AR across southeast OK into north and central TX. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for some supercell structures capable of producing isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter), along with damaging outflow gusts given the potential for strong downdrafts. These storms will last a few hours into late evening and then weaken as convective inhibition increases. ...Southeast AR into northern MS this afternoon/evening... An embedded speed max noted over north TX in the subtropical stream will progress eastward toward the MS River by late afternoon. Weak ascent preceding the wave within an unstable warm sector, along with surface heating in cloud breaks, could be sufficient for widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. If a few storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts to 70 mph, large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, and a couple of tornadoes are expected mainly this afternoon into early tonight across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. More isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible farther south from northern Mississippi and Arkansas into central Texas. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys through tonight... An occluded cyclone will move eastward into western ON, as part of a deep mid-upper low over western ON/northern MN by the end of the period. Farther to the south, a secondary cyclone will move across MO to southeast Lower MI in association with an embedded jet on the southern periphery of the deep midlevel low to the north, as a cold front progresses southeastward across the mid MS Valley and the southern Plains. Ahead of the secondary low and cold front, a moistening warm sector will spread northeastward from MO to southern/central IL and southwest IN (boundary-layer dewpoints well into the 60s) beneath lingering midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km. The net result will be an unstable warm sector with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg and only weak convective inhibition. The remnants of morning convection across MO could be rejuvenated by midday-early afternoon, with an intensifying band of storms expected to spread east-southeastward through the afternoon across the mid MS Valley and into tonight across the lower OH Valley. The combination of moderate-strong buoyancy and sufficient hodograph length/low-level curvature will support a mix of embedded supercells and bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph, large hail of 1-2.5 inches in diameter, and a couple of tornadoes. ...AR/southeast OK/north and central TX this afternoon/evening... Surface heating within an already moist air mass (68-72 F boundary-layer dewpoints) will drive strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) this afternoon ahead of a surface cold front. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by about 21z along the front from northwest AR across southeast OK into north and central TX. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for some supercell structures capable of producing isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter), along with damaging outflow gusts given the potential for strong downdrafts. These storms will last a few hours into late evening and then weaken as convective inhibition increases. ...Southeast AR into northern MS this afternoon/evening... An embedded speed max noted over north TX in the subtropical stream will progress eastward toward the MS River by late afternoon. Weak ascent preceding the wave within an unstable warm sector, along with surface heating in cloud breaks, could be sufficient for widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. If a few storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 04/18/2024 Read more

WW 0124 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 124 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW EMP TO 10 NE FLV TO 20 E STJ TO 30 W CDJ. WW 124 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 181100Z. ..GLEASON..04/18/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 124 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC045-059-091-103-121-139-209-181100- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH MIAMI OSAGE WYANDOTTE MOC021-025-037-047-049-095-101-107-165-177-181100- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUCHANAN CALDWELL CASS CLAY CLINTON JACKSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE PLATTE RAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 124 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 180440Z - 181100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 124 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Kansas Western and Northwest Missouri * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1140 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Storms will continue to increase and intensify across northeast Kansas into western/northwest Missouri overnight, including the I-70 corridor and potentially the Kansas City Metro area. Large hail can be expected with the most intense storms, and locally strong wind gusts could also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles northwest of Manhattan KS to 20 miles east northeast of Kansas City MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0479 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0479 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northeast KS into western/central MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124... Valid 180825Z - 181000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124 continues. SUMMARY...The severe/damaging wind threat has increased with a small bow moving eastward. An isolated hail threat also continues. Local watch extension (in area) is possible. DISCUSSION...Mainly supercell structures over northeast KS have evolved into a small bowing complex over the past hour or so. This convection is approaching the Kansas City metro in the near term, and should pose a continued severe/damaging wind threat. Gusts up to around 70 mph may occur given the well organized nature of the bow, even as low-level static stability attempts to hinder convective downdrafts from reaching the surface. Isolated severe hail also appears possible, as strong reflectivity aloft associated with an embedded supercell persists on the southern flank of the bow. Given a current eastward motion around 35-40 kt, a local extension in area for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124 to include more of western/central MO may be needed. Still, the eastward extent of the severe threat remain somewhat uncertain, as less MUCAPE is present farther east. However, greater DCAPE is present into central MO, which may support a continued severe wind threat through the early morning hours. ..Gleason.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39179527 39529496 39829484 39739388 39209253 38579348 38619463 38909550 39179527 Read more

WW 0124 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 124 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W MHK TO 35 NE MHK TO 30 WSW STJ TO 35 NE STJ. ..GLEASON..04/18/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 124 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-121-139-149-161-177-197- 209-181040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH MIAMI OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-025-037-047-049-063-095-101-107-165-177-181040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL CASS CLAY CLINTON DEKALB JACKSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE PLATTE RAY Read more

WW 0124 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 124 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE SLN TO 25 N MHK TO 25 W FNB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0479 ..GLEASON..04/18/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 124 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-013-027-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-117-121-131-139- 149-161-177-197-209-180940- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CLAY DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH MARSHALL MIAMI NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-037-047-049-063-087-095-165-180940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CASS CLAY CLINTON DEKALB HOLT JACKSON PLATTE Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For much of the extended period, a deep upper low and expansive trough will exist over eastern Canada, with moderate northwest flow across the central and eastern CONUS with various embedded waves. A cold front will be located roughly along the Gulf Coast on Sunday/D4, with areas of rain and thunderstorms from eastern TX toward the northern Gulf Coast and across northern FL. High pressure will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For much of the extended period, a deep upper low and expansive trough will exist over eastern Canada, with moderate northwest flow across the central and eastern CONUS with various embedded waves. A cold front will be located roughly along the Gulf Coast on Sunday/D4, with areas of rain and thunderstorms from eastern TX toward the northern Gulf Coast and across northern FL. High pressure will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For much of the extended period, a deep upper low and expansive trough will exist over eastern Canada, with moderate northwest flow across the central and eastern CONUS with various embedded waves. A cold front will be located roughly along the Gulf Coast on Sunday/D4, with areas of rain and thunderstorms from eastern TX toward the northern Gulf Coast and across northern FL. High pressure will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For much of the extended period, a deep upper low and expansive trough will exist over eastern Canada, with moderate northwest flow across the central and eastern CONUS with various embedded waves. A cold front will be located roughly along the Gulf Coast on Sunday/D4, with areas of rain and thunderstorms from eastern TX toward the northern Gulf Coast and across northern FL. High pressure will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles. Read more