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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe storms will impact the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, with wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes. Scattered to widely-scattered storms with a large hail and wind-damage threat will also be likely in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and southern Plains. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated mid-level jet, will move through the north-central U.S. today. At the surface, a low will move through Missouri as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the front, the moist sector will be in place by late morning across much of southern and central Missouri extending eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and enhanced low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to a gradual intensification of convection during the morning in western Missouri. Scattered storms will eventually organize into a line, moving eastward from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moderately unstable airmass will be in place by midday, with MLCAPE reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range over much of the moist sector. Forecast soundings near the instability axis this afternoon suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This should be sufficient for supercell development early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete. Large hail will be possible with supercells. Convective development will be driven by low-level convergence, and this should result in linear development as convective coverage increases in the early to mid afternoon. Wind damage will become likely as a nearly continuous line of storms develops. Although low-level shear is not forecast to be that strong, a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible with rotating cells embedded within the line. The severe threat will likely continue into the evening, as the line cross the Mississippi River and moves through the lower Ohio Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains... A shortwave trough will move through the Ark-La-Tex today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability across much of the moist sector by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Several clusters of storms are expected to move across the warm sector during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP forecast soundings by mid afternoon from the Texas Hill Country into north-central Texas have MLCAPE reaching the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. 0-6km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with isolated large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense and dominant supercells. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Storm coverage in many areas will remain isolated due to a weak capping inversion that is evident above 850 mb on many forecast soundings. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe storms will impact the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, with wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes. Scattered to widely-scattered storms with a large hail and wind-damage threat will also be likely in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and southern Plains. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated mid-level jet, will move through the north-central U.S. today. At the surface, a low will move through Missouri as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the front, the moist sector will be in place by late morning across much of southern and central Missouri extending eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and enhanced low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to a gradual intensification of convection during the morning in western Missouri. Scattered storms will eventually organize into a line, moving eastward from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moderately unstable airmass will be in place by midday, with MLCAPE reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range over much of the moist sector. Forecast soundings near the instability axis this afternoon suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This should be sufficient for supercell development early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete. Large hail will be possible with supercells. Convective development will be driven by low-level convergence, and this should result in linear development as convective coverage increases in the early to mid afternoon. Wind damage will become likely as a nearly continuous line of storms develops. Although low-level shear is not forecast to be that strong, a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible with rotating cells embedded within the line. The severe threat will likely continue into the evening, as the line cross the Mississippi River and moves through the lower Ohio Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains... A shortwave trough will move through the Ark-La-Tex today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability across much of the moist sector by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Several clusters of storms are expected to move across the warm sector during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP forecast soundings by mid afternoon from the Texas Hill Country into north-central Texas have MLCAPE reaching the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. 0-6km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with isolated large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense and dominant supercells. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Storm coverage in many areas will remain isolated due to a weak capping inversion that is evident above 850 mb on many forecast soundings. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe storms will impact the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, with wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes. Scattered to widely-scattered storms with a large hail and wind-damage threat will also be likely in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and southern Plains. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated mid-level jet, will move through the north-central U.S. today. At the surface, a low will move through Missouri as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the front, the moist sector will be in place by late morning across much of southern and central Missouri extending eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and enhanced low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to a gradual intensification of convection during the morning in western Missouri. Scattered storms will eventually organize into a line, moving eastward from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moderately unstable airmass will be in place by midday, with MLCAPE reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range over much of the moist sector. Forecast soundings near the instability axis this afternoon suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This should be sufficient for supercell development early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete. Large hail will be possible with supercells. Convective development will be driven by low-level convergence, and this should result in linear development as convective coverage increases in the early to mid afternoon. Wind damage will become likely as a nearly continuous line of storms develops. Although low-level shear is not forecast to be that strong, a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible with rotating cells embedded within the line. The severe threat will likely continue into the evening, as the line cross the Mississippi River and moves through the lower Ohio Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains... A shortwave trough will move through the Ark-La-Tex today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability across much of the moist sector by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Several clusters of storms are expected to move across the warm sector during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP forecast soundings by mid afternoon from the Texas Hill Country into north-central Texas have MLCAPE reaching the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. 0-6km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with isolated large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense and dominant supercells. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Storm coverage in many areas will remain isolated due to a weak capping inversion that is evident above 850 mb on many forecast soundings. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe storms will impact the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, with wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes. Scattered to widely-scattered storms with a large hail and wind-damage threat will also be likely in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and southern Plains. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated mid-level jet, will move through the north-central U.S. today. At the surface, a low will move through Missouri as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the front, the moist sector will be in place by late morning across much of southern and central Missouri extending eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and enhanced low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to a gradual intensification of convection during the morning in western Missouri. Scattered storms will eventually organize into a line, moving eastward from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moderately unstable airmass will be in place by midday, with MLCAPE reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range over much of the moist sector. Forecast soundings near the instability axis this afternoon suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This should be sufficient for supercell development early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete. Large hail will be possible with supercells. Convective development will be driven by low-level convergence, and this should result in linear development as convective coverage increases in the early to mid afternoon. Wind damage will become likely as a nearly continuous line of storms develops. Although low-level shear is not forecast to be that strong, a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible with rotating cells embedded within the line. The severe threat will likely continue into the evening, as the line cross the Mississippi River and moves through the lower Ohio Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains... A shortwave trough will move through the Ark-La-Tex today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability across much of the moist sector by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Several clusters of storms are expected to move across the warm sector during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP forecast soundings by mid afternoon from the Texas Hill Country into north-central Texas have MLCAPE reaching the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. 0-6km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with isolated large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense and dominant supercells. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Storm coverage in many areas will remain isolated due to a weak capping inversion that is evident above 850 mb on many forecast soundings. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe storms will impact the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, with wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes. Scattered to widely-scattered storms with a large hail and wind-damage threat will also be likely in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and southern Plains. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated mid-level jet, will move through the north-central U.S. today. At the surface, a low will move through Missouri as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the front, the moist sector will be in place by late morning across much of southern and central Missouri extending eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and enhanced low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to a gradual intensification of convection during the morning in western Missouri. Scattered storms will eventually organize into a line, moving eastward from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moderately unstable airmass will be in place by midday, with MLCAPE reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range over much of the moist sector. Forecast soundings near the instability axis this afternoon suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This should be sufficient for supercell development early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete. Large hail will be possible with supercells. Convective development will be driven by low-level convergence, and this should result in linear development as convective coverage increases in the early to mid afternoon. Wind damage will become likely as a nearly continuous line of storms develops. Although low-level shear is not forecast to be that strong, a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible with rotating cells embedded within the line. The severe threat will likely continue into the evening, as the line cross the Mississippi River and moves through the lower Ohio Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains... A shortwave trough will move through the Ark-La-Tex today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability across much of the moist sector by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Several clusters of storms are expected to move across the warm sector during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP forecast soundings by mid afternoon from the Texas Hill Country into north-central Texas have MLCAPE reaching the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. 0-6km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with isolated large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense and dominant supercells. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Storm coverage in many areas will remain isolated due to a weak capping inversion that is evident above 850 mb on many forecast soundings. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe storms will impact the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, with wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes. Scattered to widely-scattered storms with a large hail and wind-damage threat will also be likely in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and southern Plains. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated mid-level jet, will move through the north-central U.S. today. At the surface, a low will move through Missouri as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the front, the moist sector will be in place by late morning across much of southern and central Missouri extending eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and enhanced low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to a gradual intensification of convection during the morning in western Missouri. Scattered storms will eventually organize into a line, moving eastward from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moderately unstable airmass will be in place by midday, with MLCAPE reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range over much of the moist sector. Forecast soundings near the instability axis this afternoon suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This should be sufficient for supercell development early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete. Large hail will be possible with supercells. Convective development will be driven by low-level convergence, and this should result in linear development as convective coverage increases in the early to mid afternoon. Wind damage will become likely as a nearly continuous line of storms develops. Although low-level shear is not forecast to be that strong, a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible with rotating cells embedded within the line. The severe threat will likely continue into the evening, as the line cross the Mississippi River and moves through the lower Ohio Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains... A shortwave trough will move through the Ark-La-Tex today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability across much of the moist sector by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Several clusters of storms are expected to move across the warm sector during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP forecast soundings by mid afternoon from the Texas Hill Country into north-central Texas have MLCAPE reaching the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. 0-6km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with isolated large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense and dominant supercells. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Storm coverage in many areas will remain isolated due to a weak capping inversion that is evident above 850 mb on many forecast soundings. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe storms will impact the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, with wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes. Scattered to widely-scattered storms with a large hail and wind-damage threat will also be likely in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and southern Plains. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated mid-level jet, will move through the north-central U.S. today. At the surface, a low will move through Missouri as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the front, the moist sector will be in place by late morning across much of southern and central Missouri extending eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and enhanced low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to a gradual intensification of convection during the morning in western Missouri. Scattered storms will eventually organize into a line, moving eastward from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moderately unstable airmass will be in place by midday, with MLCAPE reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range over much of the moist sector. Forecast soundings near the instability axis this afternoon suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This should be sufficient for supercell development early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete. Large hail will be possible with supercells. Convective development will be driven by low-level convergence, and this should result in linear development as convective coverage increases in the early to mid afternoon. Wind damage will become likely as a nearly continuous line of storms develops. Although low-level shear is not forecast to be that strong, a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible with rotating cells embedded within the line. The severe threat will likely continue into the evening, as the line cross the Mississippi River and moves through the lower Ohio Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains... A shortwave trough will move through the Ark-La-Tex today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability across much of the moist sector by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Several clusters of storms are expected to move across the warm sector during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP forecast soundings by mid afternoon from the Texas Hill Country into north-central Texas have MLCAPE reaching the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. 0-6km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with isolated large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense and dominant supercells. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Storm coverage in many areas will remain isolated due to a weak capping inversion that is evident above 850 mb on many forecast soundings. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe storms will impact the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, with wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes. Scattered to widely-scattered storms with a large hail and wind-damage threat will also be likely in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and southern Plains. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated mid-level jet, will move through the north-central U.S. today. At the surface, a low will move through Missouri as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the front, the moist sector will be in place by late morning across much of southern and central Missouri extending eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and enhanced low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to a gradual intensification of convection during the morning in western Missouri. Scattered storms will eventually organize into a line, moving eastward from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moderately unstable airmass will be in place by midday, with MLCAPE reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range over much of the moist sector. Forecast soundings near the instability axis this afternoon suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This should be sufficient for supercell development early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete. Large hail will be possible with supercells. Convective development will be driven by low-level convergence, and this should result in linear development as convective coverage increases in the early to mid afternoon. Wind damage will become likely as a nearly continuous line of storms develops. Although low-level shear is not forecast to be that strong, a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible with rotating cells embedded within the line. The severe threat will likely continue into the evening, as the line cross the Mississippi River and moves through the lower Ohio Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains... A shortwave trough will move through the Ark-La-Tex today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability across much of the moist sector by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Several clusters of storms are expected to move across the warm sector during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP forecast soundings by mid afternoon from the Texas Hill Country into north-central Texas have MLCAPE reaching the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. 0-6km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with isolated large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense and dominant supercells. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Storm coverage in many areas will remain isolated due to a weak capping inversion that is evident above 850 mb on many forecast soundings. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe storms will impact the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, with wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes. Scattered to widely-scattered storms with a large hail and wind-damage threat will also be likely in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and southern Plains. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated mid-level jet, will move through the north-central U.S. today. At the surface, a low will move through Missouri as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the front, the moist sector will be in place by late morning across much of southern and central Missouri extending eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and enhanced low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to a gradual intensification of convection during the morning in western Missouri. Scattered storms will eventually organize into a line, moving eastward from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moderately unstable airmass will be in place by midday, with MLCAPE reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range over much of the moist sector. Forecast soundings near the instability axis this afternoon suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This should be sufficient for supercell development early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete. Large hail will be possible with supercells. Convective development will be driven by low-level convergence, and this should result in linear development as convective coverage increases in the early to mid afternoon. Wind damage will become likely as a nearly continuous line of storms develops. Although low-level shear is not forecast to be that strong, a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible with rotating cells embedded within the line. The severe threat will likely continue into the evening, as the line cross the Mississippi River and moves through the lower Ohio Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains... A shortwave trough will move through the Ark-La-Tex today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability across much of the moist sector by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Several clusters of storms are expected to move across the warm sector during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP forecast soundings by mid afternoon from the Texas Hill Country into north-central Texas have MLCAPE reaching the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. 0-6km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with isolated large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense and dominant supercells. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Storm coverage in many areas will remain isolated due to a weak capping inversion that is evident above 850 mb on many forecast soundings. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe storms will impact the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, with wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes. Scattered to widely-scattered storms with a large hail and wind-damage threat will also be likely in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and southern Plains. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated mid-level jet, will move through the north-central U.S. today. At the surface, a low will move through Missouri as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the front, the moist sector will be in place by late morning across much of southern and central Missouri extending eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and enhanced low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to a gradual intensification of convection during the morning in western Missouri. Scattered storms will eventually organize into a line, moving eastward from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moderately unstable airmass will be in place by midday, with MLCAPE reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range over much of the moist sector. Forecast soundings near the instability axis this afternoon suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This should be sufficient for supercell development early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete. Large hail will be possible with supercells. Convective development will be driven by low-level convergence, and this should result in linear development as convective coverage increases in the early to mid afternoon. Wind damage will become likely as a nearly continuous line of storms develops. Although low-level shear is not forecast to be that strong, a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible with rotating cells embedded within the line. The severe threat will likely continue into the evening, as the line cross the Mississippi River and moves through the lower Ohio Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains... A shortwave trough will move through the Ark-La-Tex today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability across much of the moist sector by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Several clusters of storms are expected to move across the warm sector during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP forecast soundings by mid afternoon from the Texas Hill Country into north-central Texas have MLCAPE reaching the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. 0-6km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with isolated large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense and dominant supercells. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Storm coverage in many areas will remain isolated due to a weak capping inversion that is evident above 850 mb on many forecast soundings. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 04/18/2024 Read more

WW 0124 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 124 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..04/18/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 124 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-013-027-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-117-121-131-139- 149-161-177-197-201-209-180640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CLAY DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH MARSHALL MIAMI NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-037-047-049-063-087-095-165-180640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CASS CLAY CLINTON DEKALB HOLT JACKSON PLATTE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0124 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0124 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0477 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 0477 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0831 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Areas affected...Parts of eastern KS...northwest MO...extreme southeast NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 180131Z - 180400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storm development is possible later this evening. Large hail and localized damaging gusts will be the primary hazards. DISCUSSION...The 01Z surface analysis depicts a surface low over eastern CO, with a confluence zone/dryline extending southeastward into south-central KS, then southward across western OK. While rather strong diurnal heating occurred across the region this afternoon, richer low-level moisture (with surface dewpoints in the 60s F) currently remains confined to parts of OK/TX. However, an increasing low-level jet (as noted in regional VWPs) will aid in low-level moisture transport into central/eastern KS later this evening. Moderate MLCAPE already noted over OK will spread northward into parts of central/eastern KS, though MLCINH will likely remain rather stout, rendering surface-based development unlikely. However, increasing moisture around 850 mb will support MUCAPE increasing above 1000 J/kg later this evening, with decreasing MUCINH as moisture deepens above the surface. Elevated thunderstorm development has recently been noted west of Concordia, and the combined influence of warm advection attendant to the increasing low-level jet and a low-amplitude shortwave trough traversing the region will support increasing thunderstorm coverage later this evening. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear (generally in the 40-50 kt range) will support potential for an elevated supercell or two. Large hail is the most likely hazard, though the residual well-mixed boundary layer beneath returning elevated moisture could also support localized damaging gusts. Coverage of the severe threat remains somewhat uncertain, but watch issuance is possible later this evening, if a substantial hail threat appears imminent. ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 38969387 37649490 37429581 37879693 38159774 39079904 39479948 39739878 40229635 40289601 40179499 39769412 39369389 38969387 Read more

WW 0123 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 123 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N UNI TO 30 NE PKB TO 25 N MGW TO 20 NNE LBE TO 5 W DUJ TO 20 ENE JHW. ..LYONS..04/18/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...RLX...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 123 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC009-167-180240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATHENS WASHINGTON PAC051-180240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE WVC017-033-049-061-073-077-085-091-095-107-180240- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODDRIDGE HARRISON MARION MONONGALIA PLEASANTS PRESTON RITCHIE TAYLOR TYLER WOOD Read more

WW 0123 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 123 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N UNI TO 30 NE PKB TO 25 N MGW TO 20 NNE LBE TO 5 W DUJ TO 20 ENE JHW. ..LYONS..04/18/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...RLX...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 123 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC009-167-180240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATHENS WASHINGTON PAC051-180240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE WVC017-033-049-061-073-077-085-091-095-107-180240- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODDRIDGE HARRISON MARION MONONGALIA PLEASANTS PRESTON RITCHIE TAYLOR TYLER WOOD Read more

WW 0123 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 123 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N UNI TO 30 NE PKB TO 25 N MGW TO 20 NNE LBE TO 5 W DUJ TO 20 ENE JHW. ..LYONS..04/18/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...RLX...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 123 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC009-167-180240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATHENS WASHINGTON PAC051-180240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE WVC017-033-049-061-073-077-085-091-095-107-180240- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODDRIDGE HARRISON MARION MONONGALIA PLEASANTS PRESTON RITCHIE TAYLOR TYLER WOOD Read more

WW 0123 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 123 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N UNI TO 30 NE PKB TO 25 N MGW TO 20 NNE LBE TO 5 W DUJ TO 20 ENE JHW. ..LYONS..04/18/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...RLX...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 123 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC009-167-180240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATHENS WASHINGTON PAC051-180240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE WVC017-033-049-061-073-077-085-091-095-107-180240- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODDRIDGE HARRISON MARION MONONGALIA PLEASANTS PRESTON RITCHIE TAYLOR TYLER WOOD Read more

WW 123 TORNADO OH PA WV LE 171945Z - 180400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 123 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Ohio Far Western Pennsylvania Far Northern West Virginia Lake Erie * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 345 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms currently ongoing across central Ohio are expected to continue progressing eastward this afternoon and evening. The environment ahead of these storms will remain supportive of supercells capable of tornadoes, hail from 1" to 1.5", and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east southeast of Parkersburg WV to 45 miles north of Youngstown OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 121...WW 122... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and wind damage will be possible over the next couple of hours in the upper Ohio Valley. Marginally severe storms will be possible this evening in parts of the central Appalachians and Rio Grande Valley. Very large hail may occur late this evening into the overnight period across parts of the central Plains and Ozarks. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians... A line of strong to severe storms, arching from western Pennsylvania into southern Ohio, will continue to move eastward this evening into the higher terrain of the central Appalachians. The storms are located along an axis of instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. In addition to the instability, a vorticity max over eastern Ohio is supporting convective development along the line. The HRRR suggests that the line will continue to hold together for a few more hours as it moves into the central Appalachians. RAP forecast soundings ahead of the line from southeast of Pittsburgh, PA to Charleston, WV have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment should continue to support a wind-damage threat with the stronger cells embedded in the line. Isolated large hail could also accompany the stronger cells that rotate. The severe threat should become increasingly marginal as the evening progresses. ...Central Plains/Ozarks... An upper-level trough, and an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet, will move through the central and northern Plains tonight. In response, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will strengthen across Kansas this evening. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop along the northern edge of the low-level jet this evening in southern Nebraska. Additional storms are expected to initiate in southeast Kansas. This activity will spread northeastward into northeast Kansas by late evening, where a warm front will be in place from west-northwest to east-southeast. RAP forecast soundings near and just south of the front by 06Z have MUCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with effective shear near 40 knots. Also, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This will be favorable environment for supercells with large hail. The strongest of storms could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The storms are expected to move into northwest Missouri and far southeast Nebraska around or just after midnight. ...Rio Grande Valley... At the surface, a trough is located across west-central Texas extending southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Near the surface trough, widely scattered thunderstorms have developed along and near an axis of moderate instability. The RAP has MLCAPE along the instability axis in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the RAP has 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km range, with 0-6 km shear generally in the 50 to 60 knot range. This will continue to support isolated supercell development for a few more hours this evening. Isolated large hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and wind damage will be possible over the next couple of hours in the upper Ohio Valley. Marginally severe storms will be possible this evening in parts of the central Appalachians and Rio Grande Valley. Very large hail may occur late this evening into the overnight period across parts of the central Plains and Ozarks. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians... A line of strong to severe storms, arching from western Pennsylvania into southern Ohio, will continue to move eastward this evening into the higher terrain of the central Appalachians. The storms are located along an axis of instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. In addition to the instability, a vorticity max over eastern Ohio is supporting convective development along the line. The HRRR suggests that the line will continue to hold together for a few more hours as it moves into the central Appalachians. RAP forecast soundings ahead of the line from southeast of Pittsburgh, PA to Charleston, WV have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment should continue to support a wind-damage threat with the stronger cells embedded in the line. Isolated large hail could also accompany the stronger cells that rotate. The severe threat should become increasingly marginal as the evening progresses. ...Central Plains/Ozarks... An upper-level trough, and an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet, will move through the central and northern Plains tonight. In response, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will strengthen across Kansas this evening. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop along the northern edge of the low-level jet this evening in southern Nebraska. Additional storms are expected to initiate in southeast Kansas. This activity will spread northeastward into northeast Kansas by late evening, where a warm front will be in place from west-northwest to east-southeast. RAP forecast soundings near and just south of the front by 06Z have MUCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with effective shear near 40 knots. Also, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This will be favorable environment for supercells with large hail. The strongest of storms could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The storms are expected to move into northwest Missouri and far southeast Nebraska around or just after midnight. ...Rio Grande Valley... At the surface, a trough is located across west-central Texas extending southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Near the surface trough, widely scattered thunderstorms have developed along and near an axis of moderate instability. The RAP has MLCAPE along the instability axis in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the RAP has 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km range, with 0-6 km shear generally in the 50 to 60 knot range. This will continue to support isolated supercell development for a few more hours this evening. Isolated large hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 04/18/2024 Read more