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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not currently forecast on Saturday. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Texas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Saturday, a large upper trough will move quickly east across the Great Lakes and Northeast, while an upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. A relatively wide zone of moderate midlevel westerlies will remain south of these entities, from the central Plains to the East Coast. Elsewhere, a southern-stream wave will move into the southern Plains, providing cooling aloft. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure may linger over SC, with a front extending westward into southern TX during the day. This front will slowly shift south, reaching the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday morning. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, resulting in elevated instability over the southern Plains, and areas of surface-based instability over the Southeast. The strongest pocket of instability may exist from GA into SC coincident with steeper low-level lapse rates. Given relatively week shear, severe storms are not currently forecast. However, a few strong storms will be possible assuming antecedent convection has not pushed the effective boundary offshore prior to peak heating. Over TX and OK, models indicate substantial elevated CAPE will exist, but also widespread clouds, rain and thunderstorms throughout the period. A few storms could potentially support marginal hail, however, predictability is a bit low given expected widespread precipitation. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not currently forecast on Saturday. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Texas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Saturday, a large upper trough will move quickly east across the Great Lakes and Northeast, while an upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. A relatively wide zone of moderate midlevel westerlies will remain south of these entities, from the central Plains to the East Coast. Elsewhere, a southern-stream wave will move into the southern Plains, providing cooling aloft. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure may linger over SC, with a front extending westward into southern TX during the day. This front will slowly shift south, reaching the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday morning. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, resulting in elevated instability over the southern Plains, and areas of surface-based instability over the Southeast. The strongest pocket of instability may exist from GA into SC coincident with steeper low-level lapse rates. Given relatively week shear, severe storms are not currently forecast. However, a few strong storms will be possible assuming antecedent convection has not pushed the effective boundary offshore prior to peak heating. Over TX and OK, models indicate substantial elevated CAPE will exist, but also widespread clouds, rain and thunderstorms throughout the period. A few storms could potentially support marginal hail, however, predictability is a bit low given expected widespread precipitation. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not currently forecast on Saturday. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Texas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Saturday, a large upper trough will move quickly east across the Great Lakes and Northeast, while an upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. A relatively wide zone of moderate midlevel westerlies will remain south of these entities, from the central Plains to the East Coast. Elsewhere, a southern-stream wave will move into the southern Plains, providing cooling aloft. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure may linger over SC, with a front extending westward into southern TX during the day. This front will slowly shift south, reaching the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday morning. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, resulting in elevated instability over the southern Plains, and areas of surface-based instability over the Southeast. The strongest pocket of instability may exist from GA into SC coincident with steeper low-level lapse rates. Given relatively week shear, severe storms are not currently forecast. However, a few strong storms will be possible assuming antecedent convection has not pushed the effective boundary offshore prior to peak heating. Over TX and OK, models indicate substantial elevated CAPE will exist, but also widespread clouds, rain and thunderstorms throughout the period. A few storms could potentially support marginal hail, however, predictability is a bit low given expected widespread precipitation. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2024 Read more

Drought and the pine beetle infestation in Mississippi in 2023 ravaged the state’s forests, leading the U.S. Department of Agriculture Farm Service Agency to declare a state of emergency. Landowners may receive up to $500,000 each to save private tree farms through a forest restoration program. WAPT Channel 16 (Jackson, Miss.), April 17, 2024

WW 0124 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 124 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..04/18/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 124 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-013-027-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-117-121-131-139- 149-161-177-197-201-209-180740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CLAY DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH MARSHALL MIAMI NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-037-047-049-063-087-095-165-180740- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CASS CLAY CLINTON DEKALB HOLT JACKSON PLATTE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible on Friday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will deepen as it moves across Ontario, with strong flow across the Great Lakes with a 90+ kt, elongated midlevel speed max. Well to the south, 30-40 kt midlevel winds will exist across northern portions of MS/AL/GA/Carolinas. This flow will be juxtaposed with a destabilizing air mass ahead of a cold front, with MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg developing where heating is strongest. Storms are likely to develop over the Appalachians, extending southwestward along the front into northern GA, AL, and into central MS. A subsidence inversion below 700 mb will be a concern for the lower elevations, but at least isolated marginally severe storms will be possible coincident with peak heating and with sufficient frontal convergence. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates but relatively weak low-level winds. However, modest west/northwest flow aloft and sufficiently long hodographs may favor a few cells capable of marginal hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible on Friday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will deepen as it moves across Ontario, with strong flow across the Great Lakes with a 90+ kt, elongated midlevel speed max. Well to the south, 30-40 kt midlevel winds will exist across northern portions of MS/AL/GA/Carolinas. This flow will be juxtaposed with a destabilizing air mass ahead of a cold front, with MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg developing where heating is strongest. Storms are likely to develop over the Appalachians, extending southwestward along the front into northern GA, AL, and into central MS. A subsidence inversion below 700 mb will be a concern for the lower elevations, but at least isolated marginally severe storms will be possible coincident with peak heating and with sufficient frontal convergence. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates but relatively weak low-level winds. However, modest west/northwest flow aloft and sufficiently long hodographs may favor a few cells capable of marginal hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible on Friday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will deepen as it moves across Ontario, with strong flow across the Great Lakes with a 90+ kt, elongated midlevel speed max. Well to the south, 30-40 kt midlevel winds will exist across northern portions of MS/AL/GA/Carolinas. This flow will be juxtaposed with a destabilizing air mass ahead of a cold front, with MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg developing where heating is strongest. Storms are likely to develop over the Appalachians, extending southwestward along the front into northern GA, AL, and into central MS. A subsidence inversion below 700 mb will be a concern for the lower elevations, but at least isolated marginally severe storms will be possible coincident with peak heating and with sufficient frontal convergence. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates but relatively weak low-level winds. However, modest west/northwest flow aloft and sufficiently long hodographs may favor a few cells capable of marginal hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible on Friday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will deepen as it moves across Ontario, with strong flow across the Great Lakes with a 90+ kt, elongated midlevel speed max. Well to the south, 30-40 kt midlevel winds will exist across northern portions of MS/AL/GA/Carolinas. This flow will be juxtaposed with a destabilizing air mass ahead of a cold front, with MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg developing where heating is strongest. Storms are likely to develop over the Appalachians, extending southwestward along the front into northern GA, AL, and into central MS. A subsidence inversion below 700 mb will be a concern for the lower elevations, but at least isolated marginally severe storms will be possible coincident with peak heating and with sufficient frontal convergence. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates but relatively weak low-level winds. However, modest west/northwest flow aloft and sufficiently long hodographs may favor a few cells capable of marginal hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible on Friday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will deepen as it moves across Ontario, with strong flow across the Great Lakes with a 90+ kt, elongated midlevel speed max. Well to the south, 30-40 kt midlevel winds will exist across northern portions of MS/AL/GA/Carolinas. This flow will be juxtaposed with a destabilizing air mass ahead of a cold front, with MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg developing where heating is strongest. Storms are likely to develop over the Appalachians, extending southwestward along the front into northern GA, AL, and into central MS. A subsidence inversion below 700 mb will be a concern for the lower elevations, but at least isolated marginally severe storms will be possible coincident with peak heating and with sufficient frontal convergence. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates but relatively weak low-level winds. However, modest west/northwest flow aloft and sufficiently long hodographs may favor a few cells capable of marginal hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible on Friday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will deepen as it moves across Ontario, with strong flow across the Great Lakes with a 90+ kt, elongated midlevel speed max. Well to the south, 30-40 kt midlevel winds will exist across northern portions of MS/AL/GA/Carolinas. This flow will be juxtaposed with a destabilizing air mass ahead of a cold front, with MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg developing where heating is strongest. Storms are likely to develop over the Appalachians, extending southwestward along the front into northern GA, AL, and into central MS. A subsidence inversion below 700 mb will be a concern for the lower elevations, but at least isolated marginally severe storms will be possible coincident with peak heating and with sufficient frontal convergence. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates but relatively weak low-level winds. However, modest west/northwest flow aloft and sufficiently long hodographs may favor a few cells capable of marginal hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible on Friday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will deepen as it moves across Ontario, with strong flow across the Great Lakes with a 90+ kt, elongated midlevel speed max. Well to the south, 30-40 kt midlevel winds will exist across northern portions of MS/AL/GA/Carolinas. This flow will be juxtaposed with a destabilizing air mass ahead of a cold front, with MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg developing where heating is strongest. Storms are likely to develop over the Appalachians, extending southwestward along the front into northern GA, AL, and into central MS. A subsidence inversion below 700 mb will be a concern for the lower elevations, but at least isolated marginally severe storms will be possible coincident with peak heating and with sufficient frontal convergence. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates but relatively weak low-level winds. However, modest west/northwest flow aloft and sufficiently long hodographs may favor a few cells capable of marginal hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible on Friday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will deepen as it moves across Ontario, with strong flow across the Great Lakes with a 90+ kt, elongated midlevel speed max. Well to the south, 30-40 kt midlevel winds will exist across northern portions of MS/AL/GA/Carolinas. This flow will be juxtaposed with a destabilizing air mass ahead of a cold front, with MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg developing where heating is strongest. Storms are likely to develop over the Appalachians, extending southwestward along the front into northern GA, AL, and into central MS. A subsidence inversion below 700 mb will be a concern for the lower elevations, but at least isolated marginally severe storms will be possible coincident with peak heating and with sufficient frontal convergence. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates but relatively weak low-level winds. However, modest west/northwest flow aloft and sufficiently long hodographs may favor a few cells capable of marginal hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible on Friday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will deepen as it moves across Ontario, with strong flow across the Great Lakes with a 90+ kt, elongated midlevel speed max. Well to the south, 30-40 kt midlevel winds will exist across northern portions of MS/AL/GA/Carolinas. This flow will be juxtaposed with a destabilizing air mass ahead of a cold front, with MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg developing where heating is strongest. Storms are likely to develop over the Appalachians, extending southwestward along the front into northern GA, AL, and into central MS. A subsidence inversion below 700 mb will be a concern for the lower elevations, but at least isolated marginally severe storms will be possible coincident with peak heating and with sufficient frontal convergence. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates but relatively weak low-level winds. However, modest west/northwest flow aloft and sufficiently long hodographs may favor a few cells capable of marginal hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe storms will impact the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, with wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes. Scattered to widely-scattered storms with a large hail and wind-damage threat will also be likely in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and southern Plains. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated mid-level jet, will move through the north-central U.S. today. At the surface, a low will move through Missouri as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the front, the moist sector will be in place by late morning across much of southern and central Missouri extending eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and enhanced low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to a gradual intensification of convection during the morning in western Missouri. Scattered storms will eventually organize into a line, moving eastward from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moderately unstable airmass will be in place by midday, with MLCAPE reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range over much of the moist sector. Forecast soundings near the instability axis this afternoon suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This should be sufficient for supercell development early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete. Large hail will be possible with supercells. Convective development will be driven by low-level convergence, and this should result in linear development as convective coverage increases in the early to mid afternoon. Wind damage will become likely as a nearly continuous line of storms develops. Although low-level shear is not forecast to be that strong, a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible with rotating cells embedded within the line. The severe threat will likely continue into the evening, as the line cross the Mississippi River and moves through the lower Ohio Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains... A shortwave trough will move through the Ark-La-Tex today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability across much of the moist sector by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Several clusters of storms are expected to move across the warm sector during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP forecast soundings by mid afternoon from the Texas Hill Country into north-central Texas have MLCAPE reaching the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. 0-6km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with isolated large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense and dominant supercells. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Storm coverage in many areas will remain isolated due to a weak capping inversion that is evident above 850 mb on many forecast soundings. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe storms will impact the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, with wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes. Scattered to widely-scattered storms with a large hail and wind-damage threat will also be likely in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and southern Plains. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated mid-level jet, will move through the north-central U.S. today. At the surface, a low will move through Missouri as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the front, the moist sector will be in place by late morning across much of southern and central Missouri extending eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and enhanced low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to a gradual intensification of convection during the morning in western Missouri. Scattered storms will eventually organize into a line, moving eastward from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moderately unstable airmass will be in place by midday, with MLCAPE reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range over much of the moist sector. Forecast soundings near the instability axis this afternoon suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This should be sufficient for supercell development early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete. Large hail will be possible with supercells. Convective development will be driven by low-level convergence, and this should result in linear development as convective coverage increases in the early to mid afternoon. Wind damage will become likely as a nearly continuous line of storms develops. Although low-level shear is not forecast to be that strong, a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible with rotating cells embedded within the line. The severe threat will likely continue into the evening, as the line cross the Mississippi River and moves through the lower Ohio Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains... A shortwave trough will move through the Ark-La-Tex today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability across much of the moist sector by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Several clusters of storms are expected to move across the warm sector during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP forecast soundings by mid afternoon from the Texas Hill Country into north-central Texas have MLCAPE reaching the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. 0-6km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with isolated large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense and dominant supercells. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Storm coverage in many areas will remain isolated due to a weak capping inversion that is evident above 850 mb on many forecast soundings. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe storms will impact the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, with wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes. Scattered to widely-scattered storms with a large hail and wind-damage threat will also be likely in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and southern Plains. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated mid-level jet, will move through the north-central U.S. today. At the surface, a low will move through Missouri as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the front, the moist sector will be in place by late morning across much of southern and central Missouri extending eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and enhanced low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to a gradual intensification of convection during the morning in western Missouri. Scattered storms will eventually organize into a line, moving eastward from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moderately unstable airmass will be in place by midday, with MLCAPE reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range over much of the moist sector. Forecast soundings near the instability axis this afternoon suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This should be sufficient for supercell development early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete. Large hail will be possible with supercells. Convective development will be driven by low-level convergence, and this should result in linear development as convective coverage increases in the early to mid afternoon. Wind damage will become likely as a nearly continuous line of storms develops. Although low-level shear is not forecast to be that strong, a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible with rotating cells embedded within the line. The severe threat will likely continue into the evening, as the line cross the Mississippi River and moves through the lower Ohio Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains... A shortwave trough will move through the Ark-La-Tex today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability across much of the moist sector by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Several clusters of storms are expected to move across the warm sector during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP forecast soundings by mid afternoon from the Texas Hill Country into north-central Texas have MLCAPE reaching the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. 0-6km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with isolated large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense and dominant supercells. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Storm coverage in many areas will remain isolated due to a weak capping inversion that is evident above 850 mb on many forecast soundings. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe storms will impact the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, with wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes. Scattered to widely-scattered storms with a large hail and wind-damage threat will also be likely in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and southern Plains. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated mid-level jet, will move through the north-central U.S. today. At the surface, a low will move through Missouri as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the front, the moist sector will be in place by late morning across much of southern and central Missouri extending eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and enhanced low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to a gradual intensification of convection during the morning in western Missouri. Scattered storms will eventually organize into a line, moving eastward from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moderately unstable airmass will be in place by midday, with MLCAPE reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range over much of the moist sector. Forecast soundings near the instability axis this afternoon suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This should be sufficient for supercell development early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete. Large hail will be possible with supercells. Convective development will be driven by low-level convergence, and this should result in linear development as convective coverage increases in the early to mid afternoon. Wind damage will become likely as a nearly continuous line of storms develops. Although low-level shear is not forecast to be that strong, a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible with rotating cells embedded within the line. The severe threat will likely continue into the evening, as the line cross the Mississippi River and moves through the lower Ohio Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains... A shortwave trough will move through the Ark-La-Tex today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability across much of the moist sector by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Several clusters of storms are expected to move across the warm sector during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP forecast soundings by mid afternoon from the Texas Hill Country into north-central Texas have MLCAPE reaching the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. 0-6km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with isolated large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense and dominant supercells. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Storm coverage in many areas will remain isolated due to a weak capping inversion that is evident above 850 mb on many forecast soundings. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe storms will impact the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, with wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes. Scattered to widely-scattered storms with a large hail and wind-damage threat will also be likely in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and southern Plains. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated mid-level jet, will move through the north-central U.S. today. At the surface, a low will move through Missouri as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the front, the moist sector will be in place by late morning across much of southern and central Missouri extending eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and enhanced low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to a gradual intensification of convection during the morning in western Missouri. Scattered storms will eventually organize into a line, moving eastward from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moderately unstable airmass will be in place by midday, with MLCAPE reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range over much of the moist sector. Forecast soundings near the instability axis this afternoon suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This should be sufficient for supercell development early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete. Large hail will be possible with supercells. Convective development will be driven by low-level convergence, and this should result in linear development as convective coverage increases in the early to mid afternoon. Wind damage will become likely as a nearly continuous line of storms develops. Although low-level shear is not forecast to be that strong, a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible with rotating cells embedded within the line. The severe threat will likely continue into the evening, as the line cross the Mississippi River and moves through the lower Ohio Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains... A shortwave trough will move through the Ark-La-Tex today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability across much of the moist sector by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Several clusters of storms are expected to move across the warm sector during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP forecast soundings by mid afternoon from the Texas Hill Country into north-central Texas have MLCAPE reaching the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. 0-6km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with isolated large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense and dominant supercells. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Storm coverage in many areas will remain isolated due to a weak capping inversion that is evident above 850 mb on many forecast soundings. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe storms will impact the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening, with wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes. Scattered to widely-scattered storms with a large hail and wind-damage threat will also be likely in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and southern Plains. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated mid-level jet, will move through the north-central U.S. today. At the surface, a low will move through Missouri as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the front, the moist sector will be in place by late morning across much of southern and central Missouri extending eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and enhanced low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to a gradual intensification of convection during the morning in western Missouri. Scattered storms will eventually organize into a line, moving eastward from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moderately unstable airmass will be in place by midday, with MLCAPE reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range over much of the moist sector. Forecast soundings near the instability axis this afternoon suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This should be sufficient for supercell development early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete. Large hail will be possible with supercells. Convective development will be driven by low-level convergence, and this should result in linear development as convective coverage increases in the early to mid afternoon. Wind damage will become likely as a nearly continuous line of storms develops. Although low-level shear is not forecast to be that strong, a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible with rotating cells embedded within the line. The severe threat will likely continue into the evening, as the line cross the Mississippi River and moves through the lower Ohio Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Southern Plains... A shortwave trough will move through the Ark-La-Tex today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability across much of the moist sector by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front will lead to the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Several clusters of storms are expected to move across the warm sector during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP forecast soundings by mid afternoon from the Texas Hill Country into north-central Texas have MLCAPE reaching the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. 0-6km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with isolated large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense and dominant supercells. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Storm coverage in many areas will remain isolated due to a weak capping inversion that is evident above 850 mb on many forecast soundings. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 04/18/2024 Read more