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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may still occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary changes to the outlook have been to: 1) Add 5 percent wind and hail probabilities to portions of the TX Hill Country to parts of northwestern TX. 2) Remove the Marginal Risk from the Southeast. 3) Add 5 percent wind probabilities to portions of central NE. 4) Clear probabilities behind the main band of storms over the OH Valley. Though confidence is still not overly high in organized thunderstorm development across central into northern TX this afternoon, agitated cumulus over central TX has recently developed, suggesting that a sparse storm or two is possible. Given adequate buoyancy and shear over central TX, any storms that can develop and mature into supercells may be accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat, warranting the introduction of 5 percent wind/hail probabilities. Please see MCD #475 for more information. Storms have percolated in intensity across AL, but have not yet become overly robust. A strong wind gust or instance of small hail cannot be completely ruled out, but current thinking is that the severe threat will be too sparse to warrant categorical highlights. A well-mixed boundary layer is becoming established across central NE, where storms are expected to develop later today. Given the mixed boundary layer, 5 percent wind probabilities have been added to account for the possibility of a severe gust or two. Otherwise, the rest of the outlook remains on track, with severe probabilities maintained in eastern parts of the OH Valley ahead of ongoing storms. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may still occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary changes to the outlook have been to: 1) Add 5 percent wind and hail probabilities to portions of the TX Hill Country to parts of northwestern TX. 2) Remove the Marginal Risk from the Southeast. 3) Add 5 percent wind probabilities to portions of central NE. 4) Clear probabilities behind the main band of storms over the OH Valley. Though confidence is still not overly high in organized thunderstorm development across central into northern TX this afternoon, agitated cumulus over central TX has recently developed, suggesting that a sparse storm or two is possible. Given adequate buoyancy and shear over central TX, any storms that can develop and mature into supercells may be accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat, warranting the introduction of 5 percent wind/hail probabilities. Please see MCD #475 for more information. Storms have percolated in intensity across AL, but have not yet become overly robust. A strong wind gust or instance of small hail cannot be completely ruled out, but current thinking is that the severe threat will be too sparse to warrant categorical highlights. A well-mixed boundary layer is becoming established across central NE, where storms are expected to develop later today. Given the mixed boundary layer, 5 percent wind probabilities have been added to account for the possibility of a severe gust or two. Otherwise, the rest of the outlook remains on track, with severe probabilities maintained in eastern parts of the OH Valley ahead of ongoing storms. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may still occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary changes to the outlook have been to: 1) Add 5 percent wind and hail probabilities to portions of the TX Hill Country to parts of northwestern TX. 2) Remove the Marginal Risk from the Southeast. 3) Add 5 percent wind probabilities to portions of central NE. 4) Clear probabilities behind the main band of storms over the OH Valley. Though confidence is still not overly high in organized thunderstorm development across central into northern TX this afternoon, agitated cumulus over central TX has recently developed, suggesting that a sparse storm or two is possible. Given adequate buoyancy and shear over central TX, any storms that can develop and mature into supercells may be accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat, warranting the introduction of 5 percent wind/hail probabilities. Please see MCD #475 for more information. Storms have percolated in intensity across AL, but have not yet become overly robust. A strong wind gust or instance of small hail cannot be completely ruled out, but current thinking is that the severe threat will be too sparse to warrant categorical highlights. A well-mixed boundary layer is becoming established across central NE, where storms are expected to develop later today. Given the mixed boundary layer, 5 percent wind probabilities have been added to account for the possibility of a severe gust or two. Otherwise, the rest of the outlook remains on track, with severe probabilities maintained in eastern parts of the OH Valley ahead of ongoing storms. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may still occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary changes to the outlook have been to: 1) Add 5 percent wind and hail probabilities to portions of the TX Hill Country to parts of northwestern TX. 2) Remove the Marginal Risk from the Southeast. 3) Add 5 percent wind probabilities to portions of central NE. 4) Clear probabilities behind the main band of storms over the OH Valley. Though confidence is still not overly high in organized thunderstorm development across central into northern TX this afternoon, agitated cumulus over central TX has recently developed, suggesting that a sparse storm or two is possible. Given adequate buoyancy and shear over central TX, any storms that can develop and mature into supercells may be accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat, warranting the introduction of 5 percent wind/hail probabilities. Please see MCD #475 for more information. Storms have percolated in intensity across AL, but have not yet become overly robust. A strong wind gust or instance of small hail cannot be completely ruled out, but current thinking is that the severe threat will be too sparse to warrant categorical highlights. A well-mixed boundary layer is becoming established across central NE, where storms are expected to develop later today. Given the mixed boundary layer, 5 percent wind probabilities have been added to account for the possibility of a severe gust or two. Otherwise, the rest of the outlook remains on track, with severe probabilities maintained in eastern parts of the OH Valley ahead of ongoing storms. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may still occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary changes to the outlook have been to: 1) Add 5 percent wind and hail probabilities to portions of the TX Hill Country to parts of northwestern TX. 2) Remove the Marginal Risk from the Southeast. 3) Add 5 percent wind probabilities to portions of central NE. 4) Clear probabilities behind the main band of storms over the OH Valley. Though confidence is still not overly high in organized thunderstorm development across central into northern TX this afternoon, agitated cumulus over central TX has recently developed, suggesting that a sparse storm or two is possible. Given adequate buoyancy and shear over central TX, any storms that can develop and mature into supercells may be accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat, warranting the introduction of 5 percent wind/hail probabilities. Please see MCD #475 for more information. Storms have percolated in intensity across AL, but have not yet become overly robust. A strong wind gust or instance of small hail cannot be completely ruled out, but current thinking is that the severe threat will be too sparse to warrant categorical highlights. A well-mixed boundary layer is becoming established across central NE, where storms are expected to develop later today. Given the mixed boundary layer, 5 percent wind probabilities have been added to account for the possibility of a severe gust or two. Otherwise, the rest of the outlook remains on track, with severe probabilities maintained in eastern parts of the OH Valley ahead of ongoing storms. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may still occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...20Z Update... Primary changes to the outlook have been to: 1) Add 5 percent wind and hail probabilities to portions of the TX Hill Country to parts of northwestern TX. 2) Remove the Marginal Risk from the Southeast. 3) Add 5 percent wind probabilities to portions of central NE. 4) Clear probabilities behind the main band of storms over the OH Valley. Though confidence is still not overly high in organized thunderstorm development across central into northern TX this afternoon, agitated cumulus over central TX has recently developed, suggesting that a sparse storm or two is possible. Given adequate buoyancy and shear over central TX, any storms that can develop and mature into supercells may be accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat, warranting the introduction of 5 percent wind/hail probabilities. Please see MCD #475 for more information. Storms have percolated in intensity across AL, but have not yet become overly robust. A strong wind gust or instance of small hail cannot be completely ruled out, but current thinking is that the severe threat will be too sparse to warrant categorical highlights. A well-mixed boundary layer is becoming established across central NE, where storms are expected to develop later today. Given the mixed boundary layer, 5 percent wind probabilities have been added to account for the possibility of a severe gust or two. Otherwise, the rest of the outlook remains on track, with severe probabilities maintained in eastern parts of the OH Valley ahead of ongoing storms. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. Read more

MD 0473 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 121... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0473 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Areas affected...central and eastern Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 121... Valid 171837Z - 172000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 121 continues. SUMMARY...A large hail and damaging wind threat persists across eastern Michigan. DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms continues to move east across Lower Michigan. Only a few damaging wind gust reports have been received thus far with measured gusts of 28 and 35 knots at KLAN and KJXN as the line moved through. Therefore, the majority of this line is likely producing sub-severe wind gusts with occasional severe or near severe wind gusts possible, particularly with any mesovorticies within the line. Otherwise, the only large hail was reported from the supercell which developed ahead of the line and moved through the south side of Lansing. The window for additional supercell development ahead of the line is closing as the line moves into increasingly stable air across eastern Michigan with a somewhat Lake Erie modified airmass. However, stronger cores may be possible across far southeast Michigan where greater instability is present. ..Bentley.. 04/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 41758453 41988449 42628456 43198465 43858488 44038429 44238303 43998261 43448246 43008236 42648245 42288278 42168290 41688321 41758453 Read more

WW 0123 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0123 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0123 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0123 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0123 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0123 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0123 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0123 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0472 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 122... FOR EXTREME EASTERN IN...MUCH OF OH...AND WESTERN PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0472 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Areas affected...extreme eastern IN...much of OH...and western PA Concerning...Tornado Watch 122... Valid 171812Z - 171945Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 122 continues. SUMMARY...Storms moving into northwest OH may intensify the next 1-2 hours. All severe hazards remain possible across Tornado Watch 122. A downstream watch will likely be needed in the next couple of hours across eastern OH into western PA. DISCUSSION...Convection has slowly intensified into early afternoon as storms move into a somewhat more unstable airmass. Stronger heating has allowed low-level lapse rates to steepen ahead of the line of convection. This will support potential for increasing gusts. Furthermore, low-level instability remains quite large, with 0-3 km MLCAPE greater than 125 J/kg. Regional VWP data shows enlarged, and favorably curved low-level hodographs, and low-level rotation has been noted in velocity signatures via region radars. Further intensification of these cells is expected over the next couple hours across northwest into central Ohio. As convection continues eastward, a similar environment is expected to extend across parts of eastern OH into western PA. A downstream watch will likely be needed by 20z/4pm EDT. ..Leitman.. 04/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 39348363 39508478 39688521 40048524 40988496 41668463 41988007 40957978 39798025 39418115 39288274 39348363 Read more

WW 0122 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW LUK TO 25 N DAY TO 20 SE FDY TO 20 E TOL TO 25 SSE ARB. ..LEITMAN..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-017-021-023-027-033-035-041-043-045-047-049-057-065-075- 077-083-089-091-093-097-101-103-109-113-117-123-129-135-139-143- 147-149-159-165-169-175-172040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BUTLER CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLINTON CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA DELAWARE ERIE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HARDIN HOLMES HURON KNOX LICKING LOGAN LORAIN MADISON MARION MEDINA MIAMI MONTGOMERY MORROW OTTAWA PICKAWAY PREBLE RICHLAND SANDUSKY SENECA SHELBY UNION WARREN WAYNE WYANDOT LEZ142-143-144-145-146-172040- CW Read more

WW 0121 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE TOL TO 25 S FNT TO 20 SE MBS TO 15 NNE MBS. ..LEITMAN..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC049-063-087-099-115-125-147-151-157-163-172040- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GENESEE HURON LAPEER MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR SANILAC TUSCOLA WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-172040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER DETROIT RIVER LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION) MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the current forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here, the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the current forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here, the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the current forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here, the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the current forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here, the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the current forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here, the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the current forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here, the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more