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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes should develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes should develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes should develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes should develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes should develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes should develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes should develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes should develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/17/2024 Read more

MD 0470 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0470 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Areas affected...portions of Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 171525Z - 171700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase over the next couple of hours. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main hazards with storms through the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be need by 16-17z/12-1pm EDT. DISCUSSION...Convection developing near Lake Michigan will shift northeast and intensify over the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints have increased into the upper 50s to low 60s F as a warm front continues to lift north across southern Lower Michigan. Heating of this moistening airmass has aided in weak destabilization late this morning, with around 500 J/kg MLCAPE noted in 15z mesoanalysis. Effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt should allow for organized cells or small line segments. Damaging gusts to 65 mph and hail to 1.5 inches in diameter will be possible with this activity through the afternoon. Forecast hodographs and current region VWP data indicated modestly enlarged and curved low-level hodographs are present. However, instability will remain limited. While a tornado can not be entirely ruled out, the prevailing risk potential should remain confined to damaging gusts and hail. Severe potential will increase from south to northeast with time over the next few hours, and severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD area. ..Leitman/Mosier.. 04/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 43678462 43848399 43908303 43278264 42828261 42248307 41838345 41738369 41768512 41788559 42068569 43398518 43578478 43678462 Read more

WW 0122 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0122 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Behind the weakening upper low, flow aloft is forecast to trend more zonal and weaken as the general pattern de-amplifies. Still, some stronger westerly flow will linger over parts of the southern Rockies through the forecast period. A lee low will bolster low-level surface flow off the Rockies and into the adjacent High Plains this afternoon and evening. Warm temperatures are expected along with the dry downslope flow. This should support afternoon min RH values of 10-15% across much of eastern NM and southern CO. While winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph) a few hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible. With area fuels dry, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Behind the weakening upper low, flow aloft is forecast to trend more zonal and weaken as the general pattern de-amplifies. Still, some stronger westerly flow will linger over parts of the southern Rockies through the forecast period. A lee low will bolster low-level surface flow off the Rockies and into the adjacent High Plains this afternoon and evening. Warm temperatures are expected along with the dry downslope flow. This should support afternoon min RH values of 10-15% across much of eastern NM and southern CO. While winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph) a few hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible. With area fuels dry, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Behind the weakening upper low, flow aloft is forecast to trend more zonal and weaken as the general pattern de-amplifies. Still, some stronger westerly flow will linger over parts of the southern Rockies through the forecast period. A lee low will bolster low-level surface flow off the Rockies and into the adjacent High Plains this afternoon and evening. Warm temperatures are expected along with the dry downslope flow. This should support afternoon min RH values of 10-15% across much of eastern NM and southern CO. While winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph) a few hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible. With area fuels dry, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Behind the weakening upper low, flow aloft is forecast to trend more zonal and weaken as the general pattern de-amplifies. Still, some stronger westerly flow will linger over parts of the southern Rockies through the forecast period. A lee low will bolster low-level surface flow off the Rockies and into the adjacent High Plains this afternoon and evening. Warm temperatures are expected along with the dry downslope flow. This should support afternoon min RH values of 10-15% across much of eastern NM and southern CO. While winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph) a few hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible. With area fuels dry, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Behind the weakening upper low, flow aloft is forecast to trend more zonal and weaken as the general pattern de-amplifies. Still, some stronger westerly flow will linger over parts of the southern Rockies through the forecast period. A lee low will bolster low-level surface flow off the Rockies and into the adjacent High Plains this afternoon and evening. Warm temperatures are expected along with the dry downslope flow. This should support afternoon min RH values of 10-15% across much of eastern NM and southern CO. While winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph) a few hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible. With area fuels dry, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Behind the weakening upper low, flow aloft is forecast to trend more zonal and weaken as the general pattern de-amplifies. Still, some stronger westerly flow will linger over parts of the southern Rockies through the forecast period. A lee low will bolster low-level surface flow off the Rockies and into the adjacent High Plains this afternoon and evening. Warm temperatures are expected along with the dry downslope flow. This should support afternoon min RH values of 10-15% across much of eastern NM and southern CO. While winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph) a few hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible. With area fuels dry, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Behind the weakening upper low, flow aloft is forecast to trend more zonal and weaken as the general pattern de-amplifies. Still, some stronger westerly flow will linger over parts of the southern Rockies through the forecast period. A lee low will bolster low-level surface flow off the Rockies and into the adjacent High Plains this afternoon and evening. Warm temperatures are expected along with the dry downslope flow. This should support afternoon min RH values of 10-15% across much of eastern NM and southern CO. While winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph) a few hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible. With area fuels dry, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Behind the weakening upper low, flow aloft is forecast to trend more zonal and weaken as the general pattern de-amplifies. Still, some stronger westerly flow will linger over parts of the southern Rockies through the forecast period. A lee low will bolster low-level surface flow off the Rockies and into the adjacent High Plains this afternoon and evening. Warm temperatures are expected along with the dry downslope flow. This should support afternoon min RH values of 10-15% across much of eastern NM and southern CO. While winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph) a few hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible. With area fuels dry, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Behind the weakening upper low, flow aloft is forecast to trend more zonal and weaken as the general pattern de-amplifies. Still, some stronger westerly flow will linger over parts of the southern Rockies through the forecast period. A lee low will bolster low-level surface flow off the Rockies and into the adjacent High Plains this afternoon and evening. Warm temperatures are expected along with the dry downslope flow. This should support afternoon min RH values of 10-15% across much of eastern NM and southern CO. While winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph) a few hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible. With area fuels dry, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Behind the weakening upper low, flow aloft is forecast to trend more zonal and weaken as the general pattern de-amplifies. Still, some stronger westerly flow will linger over parts of the southern Rockies through the forecast period. A lee low will bolster low-level surface flow off the Rockies and into the adjacent High Plains this afternoon and evening. Warm temperatures are expected along with the dry downslope flow. This should support afternoon min RH values of 10-15% across much of eastern NM and southern CO. While winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph) a few hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible. With area fuels dry, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more