Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the US as a broad low-amplitude trough moves over the central CONUS. Weak ridging is expected farther south which will force stronger flow aloft to remain displaced over the northern third of the country. At the surface, a low will move eastward with the broad trough while a cold front moves south over much of the Plains. Much cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and weaker winds are expected within the post-frontal air mass. The only exception to this may be across far northeast NM and southern CO where the air mass is expected to remain drier and could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Otherwise, fire-weather concerns appear unlikely over much of the CONUS today. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the US as a broad low-amplitude trough moves over the central CONUS. Weak ridging is expected farther south which will force stronger flow aloft to remain displaced over the northern third of the country. At the surface, a low will move eastward with the broad trough while a cold front moves south over much of the Plains. Much cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and weaker winds are expected within the post-frontal air mass. The only exception to this may be across far northeast NM and southern CO where the air mass is expected to remain drier and could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Otherwise, fire-weather concerns appear unlikely over much of the CONUS today. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the US as a broad low-amplitude trough moves over the central CONUS. Weak ridging is expected farther south which will force stronger flow aloft to remain displaced over the northern third of the country. At the surface, a low will move eastward with the broad trough while a cold front moves south over much of the Plains. Much cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and weaker winds are expected within the post-frontal air mass. The only exception to this may be across far northeast NM and southern CO where the air mass is expected to remain drier and could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Otherwise, fire-weather concerns appear unlikely over much of the CONUS today. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the US as a broad low-amplitude trough moves over the central CONUS. Weak ridging is expected farther south which will force stronger flow aloft to remain displaced over the northern third of the country. At the surface, a low will move eastward with the broad trough while a cold front moves south over much of the Plains. Much cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and weaker winds are expected within the post-frontal air mass. The only exception to this may be across far northeast NM and southern CO where the air mass is expected to remain drier and could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Otherwise, fire-weather concerns appear unlikely over much of the CONUS today. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the US as a broad low-amplitude trough moves over the central CONUS. Weak ridging is expected farther south which will force stronger flow aloft to remain displaced over the northern third of the country. At the surface, a low will move eastward with the broad trough while a cold front moves south over much of the Plains. Much cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and weaker winds are expected within the post-frontal air mass. The only exception to this may be across far northeast NM and southern CO where the air mass is expected to remain drier and could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Otherwise, fire-weather concerns appear unlikely over much of the CONUS today. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the US as a broad low-amplitude trough moves over the central CONUS. Weak ridging is expected farther south which will force stronger flow aloft to remain displaced over the northern third of the country. At the surface, a low will move eastward with the broad trough while a cold front moves south over much of the Plains. Much cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and weaker winds are expected within the post-frontal air mass. The only exception to this may be across far northeast NM and southern CO where the air mass is expected to remain drier and could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Otherwise, fire-weather concerns appear unlikely over much of the CONUS today. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the US as a broad low-amplitude trough moves over the central CONUS. Weak ridging is expected farther south which will force stronger flow aloft to remain displaced over the northern third of the country. At the surface, a low will move eastward with the broad trough while a cold front moves south over much of the Plains. Much cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and weaker winds are expected within the post-frontal air mass. The only exception to this may be across far northeast NM and southern CO where the air mass is expected to remain drier and could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Otherwise, fire-weather concerns appear unlikely over much of the CONUS today. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the US as a broad low-amplitude trough moves over the central CONUS. Weak ridging is expected farther south which will force stronger flow aloft to remain displaced over the northern third of the country. At the surface, a low will move eastward with the broad trough while a cold front moves south over much of the Plains. Much cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and weaker winds are expected within the post-frontal air mass. The only exception to this may be across far northeast NM and southern CO where the air mass is expected to remain drier and could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Otherwise, fire-weather concerns appear unlikely over much of the CONUS today. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the US as a broad low-amplitude trough moves over the central CONUS. Weak ridging is expected farther south which will force stronger flow aloft to remain displaced over the northern third of the country. At the surface, a low will move eastward with the broad trough while a cold front moves south over much of the Plains. Much cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and weaker winds are expected within the post-frontal air mass. The only exception to this may be across far northeast NM and southern CO where the air mass is expected to remain drier and could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Otherwise, fire-weather concerns appear unlikely over much of the CONUS today. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the US as a broad low-amplitude trough moves over the central CONUS. Weak ridging is expected farther south which will force stronger flow aloft to remain displaced over the northern third of the country. At the surface, a low will move eastward with the broad trough while a cold front moves south over much of the Plains. Much cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and weaker winds are expected within the post-frontal air mass. The only exception to this may be across far northeast NM and southern CO where the air mass is expected to remain drier and could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Otherwise, fire-weather concerns appear unlikely over much of the CONUS today. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not currently forecast on Saturday. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Texas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Saturday, a large upper trough will move quickly east across the Great Lakes and Northeast, while an upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. A relatively wide zone of moderate midlevel westerlies will remain south of these entities, from the central Plains to the East Coast. Elsewhere, a southern-stream wave will move into the southern Plains, providing cooling aloft. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure may linger over SC, with a front extending westward into southern TX during the day. This front will slowly shift south, reaching the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday morning. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, resulting in elevated instability over the southern Plains, and areas of surface-based instability over the Southeast. The strongest pocket of instability may exist from GA into SC coincident with steeper low-level lapse rates. Given relatively week shear, severe storms are not currently forecast. However, a few strong storms will be possible assuming antecedent convection has not pushed the effective boundary offshore prior to peak heating. Over TX and OK, models indicate substantial elevated CAPE will exist, but also widespread clouds, rain and thunderstorms throughout the period. A few storms could potentially support marginal hail, however, predictability is a bit low given expected widespread precipitation. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not currently forecast on Saturday. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Texas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Saturday, a large upper trough will move quickly east across the Great Lakes and Northeast, while an upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. A relatively wide zone of moderate midlevel westerlies will remain south of these entities, from the central Plains to the East Coast. Elsewhere, a southern-stream wave will move into the southern Plains, providing cooling aloft. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure may linger over SC, with a front extending westward into southern TX during the day. This front will slowly shift south, reaching the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday morning. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, resulting in elevated instability over the southern Plains, and areas of surface-based instability over the Southeast. The strongest pocket of instability may exist from GA into SC coincident with steeper low-level lapse rates. Given relatively week shear, severe storms are not currently forecast. However, a few strong storms will be possible assuming antecedent convection has not pushed the effective boundary offshore prior to peak heating. Over TX and OK, models indicate substantial elevated CAPE will exist, but also widespread clouds, rain and thunderstorms throughout the period. A few storms could potentially support marginal hail, however, predictability is a bit low given expected widespread precipitation. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not currently forecast on Saturday. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Texas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Saturday, a large upper trough will move quickly east across the Great Lakes and Northeast, while an upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. A relatively wide zone of moderate midlevel westerlies will remain south of these entities, from the central Plains to the East Coast. Elsewhere, a southern-stream wave will move into the southern Plains, providing cooling aloft. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure may linger over SC, with a front extending westward into southern TX during the day. This front will slowly shift south, reaching the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday morning. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, resulting in elevated instability over the southern Plains, and areas of surface-based instability over the Southeast. The strongest pocket of instability may exist from GA into SC coincident with steeper low-level lapse rates. Given relatively week shear, severe storms are not currently forecast. However, a few strong storms will be possible assuming antecedent convection has not pushed the effective boundary offshore prior to peak heating. Over TX and OK, models indicate substantial elevated CAPE will exist, but also widespread clouds, rain and thunderstorms throughout the period. A few storms could potentially support marginal hail, however, predictability is a bit low given expected widespread precipitation. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not currently forecast on Saturday. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Texas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Saturday, a large upper trough will move quickly east across the Great Lakes and Northeast, while an upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. A relatively wide zone of moderate midlevel westerlies will remain south of these entities, from the central Plains to the East Coast. Elsewhere, a southern-stream wave will move into the southern Plains, providing cooling aloft. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure may linger over SC, with a front extending westward into southern TX during the day. This front will slowly shift south, reaching the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday morning. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, resulting in elevated instability over the southern Plains, and areas of surface-based instability over the Southeast. The strongest pocket of instability may exist from GA into SC coincident with steeper low-level lapse rates. Given relatively week shear, severe storms are not currently forecast. However, a few strong storms will be possible assuming antecedent convection has not pushed the effective boundary offshore prior to peak heating. Over TX and OK, models indicate substantial elevated CAPE will exist, but also widespread clouds, rain and thunderstorms throughout the period. A few storms could potentially support marginal hail, however, predictability is a bit low given expected widespread precipitation. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not currently forecast on Saturday. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Texas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Saturday, a large upper trough will move quickly east across the Great Lakes and Northeast, while an upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. A relatively wide zone of moderate midlevel westerlies will remain south of these entities, from the central Plains to the East Coast. Elsewhere, a southern-stream wave will move into the southern Plains, providing cooling aloft. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure may linger over SC, with a front extending westward into southern TX during the day. This front will slowly shift south, reaching the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday morning. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, resulting in elevated instability over the southern Plains, and areas of surface-based instability over the Southeast. The strongest pocket of instability may exist from GA into SC coincident with steeper low-level lapse rates. Given relatively week shear, severe storms are not currently forecast. However, a few strong storms will be possible assuming antecedent convection has not pushed the effective boundary offshore prior to peak heating. Over TX and OK, models indicate substantial elevated CAPE will exist, but also widespread clouds, rain and thunderstorms throughout the period. A few storms could potentially support marginal hail, however, predictability is a bit low given expected widespread precipitation. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not currently forecast on Saturday. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Texas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Saturday, a large upper trough will move quickly east across the Great Lakes and Northeast, while an upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. A relatively wide zone of moderate midlevel westerlies will remain south of these entities, from the central Plains to the East Coast. Elsewhere, a southern-stream wave will move into the southern Plains, providing cooling aloft. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure may linger over SC, with a front extending westward into southern TX during the day. This front will slowly shift south, reaching the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday morning. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, resulting in elevated instability over the southern Plains, and areas of surface-based instability over the Southeast. The strongest pocket of instability may exist from GA into SC coincident with steeper low-level lapse rates. Given relatively week shear, severe storms are not currently forecast. However, a few strong storms will be possible assuming antecedent convection has not pushed the effective boundary offshore prior to peak heating. Over TX and OK, models indicate substantial elevated CAPE will exist, but also widespread clouds, rain and thunderstorms throughout the period. A few storms could potentially support marginal hail, however, predictability is a bit low given expected widespread precipitation. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2024 Read more