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WW 0124 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 124 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE SLN TO 25 N MHK TO 25 W FNB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0479 ..GLEASON..04/18/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 124 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-013-027-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-117-121-131-139- 149-161-177-197-209-180940- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CLAY DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH MARSHALL MIAMI NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-037-047-049-063-087-095-165-180940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CASS CLAY CLINTON DEKALB HOLT JACKSON PLATTE Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For much of the extended period, a deep upper low and expansive trough will exist over eastern Canada, with moderate northwest flow across the central and eastern CONUS with various embedded waves. A cold front will be located roughly along the Gulf Coast on Sunday/D4, with areas of rain and thunderstorms from eastern TX toward the northern Gulf Coast and across northern FL. High pressure will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For much of the extended period, a deep upper low and expansive trough will exist over eastern Canada, with moderate northwest flow across the central and eastern CONUS with various embedded waves. A cold front will be located roughly along the Gulf Coast on Sunday/D4, with areas of rain and thunderstorms from eastern TX toward the northern Gulf Coast and across northern FL. High pressure will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For much of the extended period, a deep upper low and expansive trough will exist over eastern Canada, with moderate northwest flow across the central and eastern CONUS with various embedded waves. A cold front will be located roughly along the Gulf Coast on Sunday/D4, with areas of rain and thunderstorms from eastern TX toward the northern Gulf Coast and across northern FL. High pressure will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For much of the extended period, a deep upper low and expansive trough will exist over eastern Canada, with moderate northwest flow across the central and eastern CONUS with various embedded waves. A cold front will be located roughly along the Gulf Coast on Sunday/D4, with areas of rain and thunderstorms from eastern TX toward the northern Gulf Coast and across northern FL. High pressure will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For much of the extended period, a deep upper low and expansive trough will exist over eastern Canada, with moderate northwest flow across the central and eastern CONUS with various embedded waves. A cold front will be located roughly along the Gulf Coast on Sunday/D4, with areas of rain and thunderstorms from eastern TX toward the northern Gulf Coast and across northern FL. High pressure will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For much of the extended period, a deep upper low and expansive trough will exist over eastern Canada, with moderate northwest flow across the central and eastern CONUS with various embedded waves. A cold front will be located roughly along the Gulf Coast on Sunday/D4, with areas of rain and thunderstorms from eastern TX toward the northern Gulf Coast and across northern FL. High pressure will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For much of the extended period, a deep upper low and expansive trough will exist over eastern Canada, with moderate northwest flow across the central and eastern CONUS with various embedded waves. A cold front will be located roughly along the Gulf Coast on Sunday/D4, with areas of rain and thunderstorms from eastern TX toward the northern Gulf Coast and across northern FL. High pressure will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For much of the extended period, a deep upper low and expansive trough will exist over eastern Canada, with moderate northwest flow across the central and eastern CONUS with various embedded waves. A cold front will be located roughly along the Gulf Coast on Sunday/D4, with areas of rain and thunderstorms from eastern TX toward the northern Gulf Coast and across northern FL. High pressure will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For much of the extended period, a deep upper low and expansive trough will exist over eastern Canada, with moderate northwest flow across the central and eastern CONUS with various embedded waves. A cold front will be located roughly along the Gulf Coast on Sunday/D4, with areas of rain and thunderstorms from eastern TX toward the northern Gulf Coast and across northern FL. High pressure will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For much of the extended period, a deep upper low and expansive trough will exist over eastern Canada, with moderate northwest flow across the central and eastern CONUS with various embedded waves. A cold front will be located roughly along the Gulf Coast on Sunday/D4, with areas of rain and thunderstorms from eastern TX toward the northern Gulf Coast and across northern FL. High pressure will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles. Read more

MD 0478 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KS INTO WESTERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0478 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northeast KS into western MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124... Valid 180700Z - 180830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail and gusty wind threat continues early this morning. DISCUSSION...Ascent associated with a 40-50 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet noted on KTWX VWP will continue to support elevated supercell potential early this morning across parts of northeast KS and western MO. The primary supercell of interest at the moment near Topeka KS is north of a surface warm front over east-central KS. This thunderstorm should remain elevated in the short term while progressing eastward towards the Kansas City metro. Given adequate MUCAPE and around 40 kt of deep-layer shear, isolated supercells across this area should continue to pose a threat for mainly large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds around 50-60 mph may also be realized, as the depth of the near-surface stable layer does not appear prohibitively deep in RAP forecast soundings. ..Gleason.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39369636 39679604 39669501 39489438 39109408 38489416 38459486 38869593 39079638 39369636 Read more

WW 0124 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 124 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0478 ..GLEASON..04/18/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 124 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-013-027-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-117-121-131-139- 149-161-177-197-201-209-180840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CLAY DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH MARSHALL MIAMI NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-037-047-049-063-087-095-165-180840- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CASS CLAY CLINTON DEKALB HOLT JACKSON PLATTE Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more