SPC MD 732

1 year 2 months ago
MD 0732 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FROM FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0732 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Areas affected...From far northeast Texas across southern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 092026Z - 092300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of large hail are expected to move east across the ArkLaTex and into much of southern Arkansas through evening. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows an extensive stationary front across northern TX and into southern AR and toward the MS/TN border. South of this boundary, a very moist and unstable air mass exists with MLCAPE exceeding 4000 J/kg. While low-level winds are weak, moderate mid to high levels winds will help move storms eastward along and north of the boundary, with deep layer shear of 60-70 kt Forward-propagating cells or eventual bows will be possible, and the strongest cells may produce very large damaging hail. ..Jewell/Smith.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34439590 34549124 34289117 33899115 33499190 33169244 32919314 32879576 33599586 34199587 34439590 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224

1 year 2 months ago
WW 224 SEVERE TSTM LA TX 092245Z - 100500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 224 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 545 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Central Louisiana Central and East Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 545 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated supercell thunderstorms over central Texas will track eastward and become more numerous through the evening, spreading across the watch area. Very large hail and perhaps a tornado are the main threats early, with an increasing risk of damaging winds by late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles either side of a line from 75 miles west of Austin TX to 105 miles east northeast of Lufkin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 219...WW 220...WW 221...WW 222...WW 223... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 221 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0221 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SJT TO 35 SSW BWD TO 30 E SEP TO 30 SE DAL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0735 ..SQUITIERI..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC035-099-139-193-217-251-267-281-307-309-319-327-333-411- 092340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE CORYELL ELLIS HAMILTON HILL JOHNSON KIMBLE LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MASON MENARD MILLS SAN SABA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 221 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0221 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SJT TO 35 SSW BWD TO 30 E SEP TO 30 SE DAL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0735 ..SQUITIERI..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC035-099-139-193-217-251-267-281-307-309-319-327-333-411- 092340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE CORYELL ELLIS HAMILTON HILL JOHNSON KIMBLE LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MASON MENARD MILLS SAN SABA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 221

1 year 2 months ago
WW 221 TORNADO TX 091835Z - 100200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North-Central and Central Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon into the early evening. Several intense supercells are likely and will be capable of large to giant hail (max diameter 2 to 4 inches) and severe gusts. The tornado risk may focus along the west to east oriented wind shift draped across parts of north-central Texas. Eventual growth into a severe cluster of supercells with accompanying significant hail and wind hazards may evolve towards the evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles south southeast of Dallas TX to 70 miles south southwest of Abilene TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 217...WW 218...WW 219...WW 220... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Smith Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 219 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0219 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DAL TO 20 S GYI TO 10 N GYI TO 35 NNW PRX. WW 219 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100000Z. ..SQUITIERI..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC013-100000- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN TXC147-181-100000- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FANNIN GRAYSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 219 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0219 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DAL TO 20 S GYI TO 10 N GYI TO 35 NNW PRX. WW 219 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100000Z. ..SQUITIERI..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC013-100000- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN TXC147-181-100000- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FANNIN GRAYSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 219

1 year 2 months ago
WW 219 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 091725Z - 100000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 219 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Oklahoma North Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Several supercells are forecast to move across the Watch area this afternoon into the early evening. Large to giant hail will be likely with any robust supercell and severe gusts are also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX to 30 miles east southeast of Durant OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 217...WW 218... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Smith Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 220 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE TOI TO 30 E DHN TO 20 NNE TLH. ..GOSS..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-067-069-092340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE HENRY HOUSTON GAC087-099-185-201-253-092340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR EARLY LOWNDES MILLER SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 220 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE TOI TO 30 E DHN TO 20 NNE TLH. ..GOSS..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-067-069-092340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE HENRY HOUSTON GAC087-099-185-201-253-092340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR EARLY LOWNDES MILLER SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 220

1 year 2 months ago
WW 220 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 091745Z - 100100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Alabama Northeast Florida Southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Several strong to severe thunderstorm bands will likely progressively move east-southeastward into the Watch area this afternoon and early evening. In addition to the possibility for damaging gusts with the thunderstorm bands, embedded supercells or embedded mesovortices may pose a tornado risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles northwest of Dothan AL to 30 miles southeast of Brunswick GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 217...WW 218...WW 219... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0223 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 223 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 223 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-005-007-011-017-021-027-037-047-051-057-063-065-073-075- 081-085-087-091-101-105-107-109-113-117-119-121-123-125-127- 092340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB BULLOCK CHAMBERS CHILTON CLAY COOSA DALLAS ELMORE FAYETTE GREENE HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR LEE LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MONTGOMERY PERRY PICKENS PIKE RUSSELL SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER MSC013-017-019-025-069-087-095-099-103-105-155-159-092340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CHICKASAW CHOCTAW CLAY KEMPER LOWNDES Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 219 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0219 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE MWL TO 45 N FTW TO 20 S ADM TO 25 S MLC. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC013-085-095-092240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN LOVE MARSHALL TXC085-097-121-147-181-497-092240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN COOKE DENTON FANNIN GRAYSON WISE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 220 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE TOI TO 30 SW ABY TO 10 W VLD TO 35 SE AYS TO 50 ENE SSI. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-067-069-092240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE HENRY HOUSTON FLC031-089-092240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUVAL NASSAU GAC027-039-049-061-087-099-101-131-185-201-239-253-275-092240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS CAMDEN CHARLTON CLAY DECATUR EARLY ECHOLS GRADY LOWNDES MILLER QUITMAN SEMINOLE Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 221 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0221 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SJT TO 35 W BWD TO 15 NNE SEP TO 10 NW FTW TO 35 WSW GYI. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC035-049-083-093-095-099-113-139-143-193-217-221-251-267-281- 307-309-319-327-333-367-411-425-439-092240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE BROWN COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO CORYELL DALLAS ELLIS ERATH HAMILTON HILL HOOD JOHNSON KIMBLE LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MASON MENARD MILLS PARKER SAN SABA SOMERVELL TARRANT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0222 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 222 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 222 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-019-025-027-039-057-061-073-081-091-099-103-109-133- 139-092240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE SEVIER UNION LAC013-015-017-027-049-061-073-111-119-092240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA UNION WEBSTER OKC023-089-127-092240- Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0222 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 222 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 222 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-019-025-027-039-057-061-073-081-091-099-103-109-133- 139-092240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE SEVIER UNION LAC013-015-017-027-049-061-073-111-119-092240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA UNION WEBSTER OKC023-089-127-092240- Read more

SPC MD 733

1 year 2 months ago
MD 0733 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 220... FOR NORTH FL AND FAR SOUTH GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0733 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Areas affected...North FL and far south GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 220... Valid 092036Z - 092130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 220 continues. SUMMARY...While the bulk of damaging wind/brief tornado threat appears to be shifting off the Georgia coast, localized strong gusts may linger into parts of northeast Florida. A downstream watch issuance appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...The southeastward-propagating portion of the broad arcing MCS across south GA has recently moved just offshore to along the far southeast GA coast. This was responsible for a swath of damaging winds and brief tornado reports, with measured gusts up to 48 kts. Given modest low-level shear in the 18Z TLH sounding, and even weaker values noted in the more recent VWP data, convective outflow has surged well ahead of the MCS, especially with western extent. Still, with the presence of low to mid 90s surface temperatures and ample buoyancy ahead of the outflow, it is plausible that locally strong gusts may accompany deeper convection before it likely wanes during the early evening. ..Grams.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 31368144 31308095 30388121 29978132 29628169 29688232 29788302 30378387 30728389 30808328 31368144 Read more

SPC MD 731

1 year 2 months ago
MD 0731 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/UPPER OH VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0731 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Areas affected...Central/Upper OH Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092006Z - 092130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail of 0.75 to 1.25 inches and locally damaging wind gusts from 45 to 60 mph will be possible with lower-topped scattered thunderstorms. A severe thunderstorm watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...To the southeast of a shortwave trough across the Upper Great Lakes/MS Valley, a belt of strong mid-level westerlies persists across most of the Lower to Central OH Valley. Despite this favorable upper flow regime, low-level winds remain weak and decidedly westerly, to the south of a pair of occluded surface lows over east-central IN and central OH. Meanwhile, destabilization has struggled with pervasive clouds/cool temperatures north of the occluded front. But an area of greater insolation is spreading east, to the west of the occluded lows over southern IN. Low-topped thunderstorms have developed within this post-frontal regime and should deepen somewhat over the next few hours as they spread east. Additional storms might form farther east ahead of the ill-defined occluded front/surface trough. Convection should struggle to greatly intensify, but given the presence of moderate to strong speed shear, a few more robust updrafts will be capable of producing marginal severe hail/wind threats into early evening. ..Grams/Smith.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND... LAT...LON 39568673 39968516 40098323 40198196 40148107 39918077 39588077 39038106 38498189 38358265 38408407 38468525 38578642 38628689 38988690 39568673 Read more