SPC Jun 14, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Severe Storms
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to locally severe storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through about dusk. ...20Z Update... Convection from New England to the Upper OH Valley has largely struggled to greatly intensify beyond a marginally severe status as of yet. Still, where boundary-layer warming has been more pronounced from parts of the Upper OH Valley, DE Valley, and southern to eastern New England, a few clusters may yet produce strong to localized severe gust before convection diminishes after dusk. The central states severe threat appears on-track. Deepening convection from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains northward along the Front Range should intensify as it impinges on the strengthening buoyancy plume over the central High Plains. For additional short-term information, see MCD 1262. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Severe Storms
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to locally severe storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through about dusk. ...20Z Update... Convection from New England to the Upper OH Valley has largely struggled to greatly intensify beyond a marginally severe status as of yet. Still, where boundary-layer warming has been more pronounced from parts of the Upper OH Valley, DE Valley, and southern to eastern New England, a few clusters may yet produce strong to localized severe gust before convection diminishes after dusk. The central states severe threat appears on-track. Deepening convection from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains northward along the Front Range should intensify as it impinges on the strengthening buoyancy plume over the central High Plains. For additional short-term information, see MCD 1262. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Severe Storms
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to locally severe storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through about dusk. ...20Z Update... Convection from New England to the Upper OH Valley has largely struggled to greatly intensify beyond a marginally severe status as of yet. Still, where boundary-layer warming has been more pronounced from parts of the Upper OH Valley, DE Valley, and southern to eastern New England, a few clusters may yet produce strong to localized severe gust before convection diminishes after dusk. The central states severe threat appears on-track. Deepening convection from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains northward along the Front Range should intensify as it impinges on the strengthening buoyancy plume over the central High Plains. For additional short-term information, see MCD 1262. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Severe Storms
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to locally severe storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through about dusk. ...20Z Update... Convection from New England to the Upper OH Valley has largely struggled to greatly intensify beyond a marginally severe status as of yet. Still, where boundary-layer warming has been more pronounced from parts of the Upper OH Valley, DE Valley, and southern to eastern New England, a few clusters may yet produce strong to localized severe gust before convection diminishes after dusk. The central states severe threat appears on-track. Deepening convection from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains northward along the Front Range should intensify as it impinges on the strengthening buoyancy plume over the central High Plains. For additional short-term information, see MCD 1262. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Severe Storms
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to locally severe storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through about dusk. ...20Z Update... Convection from New England to the Upper OH Valley has largely struggled to greatly intensify beyond a marginally severe status as of yet. Still, where boundary-layer warming has been more pronounced from parts of the Upper OH Valley, DE Valley, and southern to eastern New England, a few clusters may yet produce strong to localized severe gust before convection diminishes after dusk. The central states severe threat appears on-track. Deepening convection from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains northward along the Front Range should intensify as it impinges on the strengthening buoyancy plume over the central High Plains. For additional short-term information, see MCD 1262. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Severe Storms
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to locally severe storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through about dusk. ...20Z Update... Convection from New England to the Upper OH Valley has largely struggled to greatly intensify beyond a marginally severe status as of yet. Still, where boundary-layer warming has been more pronounced from parts of the Upper OH Valley, DE Valley, and southern to eastern New England, a few clusters may yet produce strong to localized severe gust before convection diminishes after dusk. The central states severe threat appears on-track. Deepening convection from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains northward along the Front Range should intensify as it impinges on the strengthening buoyancy plume over the central High Plains. For additional short-term information, see MCD 1262. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Severe Storms
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to locally severe storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through about dusk. ...20Z Update... Convection from New England to the Upper OH Valley has largely struggled to greatly intensify beyond a marginally severe status as of yet. Still, where boundary-layer warming has been more pronounced from parts of the Upper OH Valley, DE Valley, and southern to eastern New England, a few clusters may yet produce strong to localized severe gust before convection diminishes after dusk. The central states severe threat appears on-track. Deepening convection from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains northward along the Front Range should intensify as it impinges on the strengthening buoyancy plume over the central High Plains. For additional short-term information, see MCD 1262. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Severe Storms
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to locally severe storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through about dusk. ...20Z Update... Convection from New England to the Upper OH Valley has largely struggled to greatly intensify beyond a marginally severe status as of yet. Still, where boundary-layer warming has been more pronounced from parts of the Upper OH Valley, DE Valley, and southern to eastern New England, a few clusters may yet produce strong to localized severe gust before convection diminishes after dusk. The central states severe threat appears on-track. Deepening convection from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains northward along the Front Range should intensify as it impinges on the strengthening buoyancy plume over the central High Plains. For additional short-term information, see MCD 1262. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Severe Storms
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to locally severe storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through about dusk. ...20Z Update... Convection from New England to the Upper OH Valley has largely struggled to greatly intensify beyond a marginally severe status as of yet. Still, where boundary-layer warming has been more pronounced from parts of the Upper OH Valley, DE Valley, and southern to eastern New England, a few clusters may yet produce strong to localized severe gust before convection diminishes after dusk. The central states severe threat appears on-track. Deepening convection from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains northward along the Front Range should intensify as it impinges on the strengthening buoyancy plume over the central High Plains. For additional short-term information, see MCD 1262. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Severe Storms
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to locally severe storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through about dusk. ...20Z Update... Convection from New England to the Upper OH Valley has largely struggled to greatly intensify beyond a marginally severe status as of yet. Still, where boundary-layer warming has been more pronounced from parts of the Upper OH Valley, DE Valley, and southern to eastern New England, a few clusters may yet produce strong to localized severe gust before convection diminishes after dusk. The central states severe threat appears on-track. Deepening convection from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains northward along the Front Range should intensify as it impinges on the strengthening buoyancy plume over the central High Plains. For additional short-term information, see MCD 1262. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Severe Storms
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to locally severe storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through about dusk. ...20Z Update... Convection from New England to the Upper OH Valley has largely struggled to greatly intensify beyond a marginally severe status as of yet. Still, where boundary-layer warming has been more pronounced from parts of the Upper OH Valley, DE Valley, and southern to eastern New England, a few clusters may yet produce strong to localized severe gust before convection diminishes after dusk. The central states severe threat appears on-track. Deepening convection from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains northward along the Front Range should intensify as it impinges on the strengthening buoyancy plume over the central High Plains. For additional short-term information, see MCD 1262. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Severe Storms
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to locally severe storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through about dusk. ...20Z Update... Convection from New England to the Upper OH Valley has largely struggled to greatly intensify beyond a marginally severe status as of yet. Still, where boundary-layer warming has been more pronounced from parts of the Upper OH Valley, DE Valley, and southern to eastern New England, a few clusters may yet produce strong to localized severe gust before convection diminishes after dusk. The central states severe threat appears on-track. Deepening convection from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains northward along the Front Range should intensify as it impinges on the strengthening buoyancy plume over the central High Plains. For additional short-term information, see MCD 1262. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Severe Storms
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to locally severe storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through about dusk. ...20Z Update... Convection from New England to the Upper OH Valley has largely struggled to greatly intensify beyond a marginally severe status as of yet. Still, where boundary-layer warming has been more pronounced from parts of the Upper OH Valley, DE Valley, and southern to eastern New England, a few clusters may yet produce strong to localized severe gust before convection diminishes after dusk. The central states severe threat appears on-track. Deepening convection from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains northward along the Front Range should intensify as it impinges on the strengthening buoyancy plume over the central High Plains. For additional short-term information, see MCD 1262. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. Read more

SPC Jun 14, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Severe Storms
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to locally severe storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through about dusk. ...20Z Update... Convection from New England to the Upper OH Valley has largely struggled to greatly intensify beyond a marginally severe status as of yet. Still, where boundary-layer warming has been more pronounced from parts of the Upper OH Valley, DE Valley, and southern to eastern New England, a few clusters may yet produce strong to localized severe gust before convection diminishes after dusk. The central states severe threat appears on-track. Deepening convection from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains northward along the Front Range should intensify as it impinges on the strengthening buoyancy plume over the central High Plains. For additional short-term information, see MCD 1262. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ ...Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially. A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast. Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential. Read more

SPC MD 1259

Severe Storms
1 year 2 months ago
MD 1259 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST VT...NORTHERN/CENTRAL NH...ME
Mesoscale Discussion 1259 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Areas affected...Northeast VT...Northern/Central NH...ME Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141718Z - 141915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible today from northeast Vermont and northern/central New Hampshire across much of Maine. Hail and damaging gusts are possible with the strongest storms, and trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows thunderstorms are beginning to develop along and ahead of the cold front progressing southeastward into the region. Development thus far has occurred just along the leading edge of the better large-scale forcing for ascent, coincident with where modest low-level convergence within the vicinity of a weak pre-frontal trough is augmenting the more synoptic lift. The downstream air mass is only modestly buoyant, with current mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. Heating has been limited thus far, but cloud cover is beginning to thin, suggesting additional heating may occur in the region between the warm conveyor and the surface cold front. Additional heating would boost buoyancy, with stronger updrafts then more likely. Moderate vertical shear is in place, with regional VADs recently sampling 40 to 45 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear. Given the linear forcing and modest buoyancy, a linear multicellular mode will likely be the primary storm mode. However, vertical shear is strong enough to support supercell structures within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. Additionally, with the primary front still west of the region, multiple rounds of development along axes of low-level convergence are possible. Both hail and/damaging gusts are possible, but the hail threat will likely be confined to the more discrete storms. Overall severe coverage is uncertain, so convective trends will be monitored closely for potential watch issuance. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... LAT...LON 44956828 44306911 44056956 43787022 43637094 43617219 44157248 45017163 46247037 47056943 47006806 46106788 44956828 Read more