SPC Tornado Watch 220 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE TOI TO 30 E DHN TO 20 NNE TLH. ..GOSS..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-067-069-092340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE HENRY HOUSTON GAC087-099-185-201-253-092340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR EARLY LOWNDES MILLER SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 220 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE TOI TO 30 E DHN TO 20 NNE TLH. ..GOSS..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-067-069-092340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE HENRY HOUSTON GAC087-099-185-201-253-092340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR EARLY LOWNDES MILLER SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 220

1 year 2 months ago
WW 220 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 091745Z - 100100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Alabama Northeast Florida Southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Several strong to severe thunderstorm bands will likely progressively move east-southeastward into the Watch area this afternoon and early evening. In addition to the possibility for damaging gusts with the thunderstorm bands, embedded supercells or embedded mesovortices may pose a tornado risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles northwest of Dothan AL to 30 miles southeast of Brunswick GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 217...WW 218...WW 219... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0223 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 223 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 223 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-005-007-011-017-021-027-037-047-051-057-063-065-073-075- 081-085-087-091-101-105-107-109-113-117-119-121-123-125-127- 092340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB BULLOCK CHAMBERS CHILTON CLAY COOSA DALLAS ELMORE FAYETTE GREENE HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR LEE LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MONTGOMERY PERRY PICKENS PIKE RUSSELL SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER MSC013-017-019-025-069-087-095-099-103-105-155-159-092340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CHICKASAW CHOCTAW CLAY KEMPER LOWNDES Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 219 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0219 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE MWL TO 45 N FTW TO 20 S ADM TO 25 S MLC. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC013-085-095-092240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN LOVE MARSHALL TXC085-097-121-147-181-497-092240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN COOKE DENTON FANNIN GRAYSON WISE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 220 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE TOI TO 30 SW ABY TO 10 W VLD TO 35 SE AYS TO 50 ENE SSI. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-067-069-092240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE HENRY HOUSTON FLC031-089-092240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUVAL NASSAU GAC027-039-049-061-087-099-101-131-185-201-239-253-275-092240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS CAMDEN CHARLTON CLAY DECATUR EARLY ECHOLS GRADY LOWNDES MILLER QUITMAN SEMINOLE Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 221 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0221 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SJT TO 35 W BWD TO 15 NNE SEP TO 10 NW FTW TO 35 WSW GYI. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC035-049-083-093-095-099-113-139-143-193-217-221-251-267-281- 307-309-319-327-333-367-411-425-439-092240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE BROWN COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO CORYELL DALLAS ELLIS ERATH HAMILTON HILL HOOD JOHNSON KIMBLE LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MASON MENARD MILLS PARKER SAN SABA SOMERVELL TARRANT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0222 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 222 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 222 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-019-025-027-039-057-061-073-081-091-099-103-109-133- 139-092240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE SEVIER UNION LAC013-015-017-027-049-061-073-111-119-092240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA UNION WEBSTER OKC023-089-127-092240- Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0222 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 222 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 222 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-019-025-027-039-057-061-073-081-091-099-103-109-133- 139-092240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE SEVIER UNION LAC013-015-017-027-049-061-073-111-119-092240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA UNION WEBSTER OKC023-089-127-092240- Read more

SPC MD 733

1 year 2 months ago
MD 0733 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 220... FOR NORTH FL AND FAR SOUTH GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0733 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Areas affected...North FL and far south GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 220... Valid 092036Z - 092130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 220 continues. SUMMARY...While the bulk of damaging wind/brief tornado threat appears to be shifting off the Georgia coast, localized strong gusts may linger into parts of northeast Florida. A downstream watch issuance appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...The southeastward-propagating portion of the broad arcing MCS across south GA has recently moved just offshore to along the far southeast GA coast. This was responsible for a swath of damaging winds and brief tornado reports, with measured gusts up to 48 kts. Given modest low-level shear in the 18Z TLH sounding, and even weaker values noted in the more recent VWP data, convective outflow has surged well ahead of the MCS, especially with western extent. Still, with the presence of low to mid 90s surface temperatures and ample buoyancy ahead of the outflow, it is plausible that locally strong gusts may accompany deeper convection before it likely wanes during the early evening. ..Grams.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 31368144 31308095 30388121 29978132 29628169 29688232 29788302 30378387 30728389 30808328 31368144 Read more

SPC MD 731

1 year 2 months ago
MD 0731 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/UPPER OH VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0731 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Areas affected...Central/Upper OH Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092006Z - 092130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail of 0.75 to 1.25 inches and locally damaging wind gusts from 45 to 60 mph will be possible with lower-topped scattered thunderstorms. A severe thunderstorm watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...To the southeast of a shortwave trough across the Upper Great Lakes/MS Valley, a belt of strong mid-level westerlies persists across most of the Lower to Central OH Valley. Despite this favorable upper flow regime, low-level winds remain weak and decidedly westerly, to the south of a pair of occluded surface lows over east-central IN and central OH. Meanwhile, destabilization has struggled with pervasive clouds/cool temperatures north of the occluded front. But an area of greater insolation is spreading east, to the west of the occluded lows over southern IN. Low-topped thunderstorms have developed within this post-frontal regime and should deepen somewhat over the next few hours as they spread east. Additional storms might form farther east ahead of the ill-defined occluded front/surface trough. Convection should struggle to greatly intensify, but given the presence of moderate to strong speed shear, a few more robust updrafts will be capable of producing marginal severe hail/wind threats into early evening. ..Grams/Smith.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND... LAT...LON 39568673 39968516 40098323 40198196 40148107 39918077 39588077 39038106 38498189 38358265 38408407 38468525 38578642 38628689 38988690 39568673 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 221 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0221 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N SJT TO 25 SSE ABI TO 35 N BWD TO 20 W MWL TO 25 NNE MWL. ..JEWELL..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC035-049-059-083-093-095-099-113-133-139-143-193-217-221-251- 267-281-307-309-319-327-333-363-367-399-411-425-429-439- 092140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO CORYELL DALLAS EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH HAMILTON HILL HOOD JOHNSON KIMBLE LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MASON MENARD MILLS PALO PINTO PARKER RUNNELS SAN SABA SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 219 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0219 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW SPS TO 45 SW ADM TO 15 NNE DUA TO 40 N PRX. ..JEWELL..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC013-085-095-092140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN LOVE MARSHALL TXC009-077-085-097-121-147-181-237-337-497-503-092140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CLAY COLLIN COOKE DENTON FANNIN GRAYSON JACK MONTAGUE WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 220 Status Reports

1 year 2 months ago
WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW ABY TO 20 NE ABY TO 25 E ABY TO 25 ENE MGR TO 20 W AYS TO 15 NE AYS TO 45 SE VDI. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-067-069-092140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE HENRY HOUSTON FLC031-089-092140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUVAL NASSAU GAC007-025-027-037-039-049-061-065-071-075-087-095-099-101-127- 131-173-177-185-201-205-229-239-243-253-273-275-299-305-321- 092140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER BRANTLEY BROOKS Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more