Aggregator

WW 0221 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N SJT TO 25 SSE ABI TO 35 N BWD TO 20 W MWL TO 25 NNE MWL. ..JEWELL..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC035-049-059-083-093-095-099-113-133-139-143-193-217-221-251- 267-281-307-309-319-327-333-363-367-399-411-425-429-439- 092140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO CORYELL DALLAS EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH HAMILTON HILL HOOD JOHNSON KIMBLE LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MASON MENARD MILLS PALO PINTO PARKER RUNNELS SAN SABA SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0222 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0222 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0219 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW SPS TO 45 SW ADM TO 15 NNE DUA TO 40 N PRX. ..JEWELL..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC013-085-095-092140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN LOVE MARSHALL TXC009-077-085-097-121-147-181-237-337-497-503-092140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CLAY COLLIN COOKE DENTON FANNIN GRAYSON JACK MONTAGUE WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW ABY TO 20 NE ABY TO 25 E ABY TO 25 ENE MGR TO 20 W AYS TO 15 NE AYS TO 45 SE VDI. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-067-069-092140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE HENRY HOUSTON FLC031-089-092140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUVAL NASSAU GAC007-025-027-037-039-049-061-065-071-075-087-095-099-101-127- 131-173-177-185-201-205-229-239-243-253-273-275-299-305-321- 092140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER BRANTLEY BROOKS Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period, though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions. Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions will continue into the middle portions of next week over the Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond this weekend. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more