1 year ago
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 122043 CCA
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 2...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024
Corrected for rainfall statement
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM ILEANA...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ILEANA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 108.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from La Paz to San
Evaristo.
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
east coast of the Baja California Peninsula north of San Evaristo to
Loreto.
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
coast of mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo
southward
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to
Loreto
* Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical
Storm Ileana.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 108.0 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn to the north
at a slightly slower forward speed is expected Friday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Ileana should pass near or over the
southern portion of Baja California Sur Friday and Friday night
before emerging over the southern Gulf of California late Friday
night or early Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours until
Ileana reaches Baja California Sur. After that, some weakening is
possible while the cyclone is near or over land.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches
with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal
areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From
Friday through Sunday, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in 4-6
inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across
southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical
Storm Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher
amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of
flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the
warning area Friday morning, making outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by early Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Ileana will affect
portions of the coast of west-central Mexico during the next day or
so, and will spread northward along the coasts of the southern Baja
California Peninsula and mainland Mexico beginning tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
NHC Webmaster
1 year ago
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 122038
TCDEP4
Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024
The overall cloud pattern as seen in GOES-18 visible and infrared
imagery does not appear to have changed very much from earlier
today. While the RMW still seems to be a bit large, the cyclone
displays a large area of cold cloud tops with some evidence of
curved banding. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
are a consensus T-2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, while recent
objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 33 to 42 kt.
Based on the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the
depression is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Ileana with an
initial intensity estimate of 35 kt.
The initial motion estimate is north-northwest, or 340/8 kt, which
is a bit faster than before. The overall synoptic steering pattern
is unchanged in the models from earlier. A deep-layer trough
located over the western United States will continue to steer the
cyclone toward the north-northwest through Friday, bringing the
system near the southern portion of Baja California Sur. After that
time, this trough is forecast to weaken, which should cause steering
currents to weaken. This evolution should induce a slower motion
toward the north, likely over the waters of the southern Gulf of
California. There were no major changes to the guidance for the
first 36 to 48 h of the forecast, and very little change was made to
the previous official forecast. Thereafter, the guidance is a bit
farther west, with some of the models keeping the cyclone moving
north-northwestward over the Gulf of California rather than moving
inland over mainland Mexico. The NHC forecast was only nudged
slightly west of the previous forecast, not as far west as the
consensus aids during the 48 to 96 h time period.
Ileana is currently located within an environment of warm ocean
waters, moderate vertical wind shear, and within a fairly moist low-
to mid-level troposphere. However, very dry air is evident on water
vapor imagery to the northwest of the cyclone. These conditions are
unlikely to change before the cyclone reaches Baja California Sur on
Friday, and the NHC forecast shows some strengthening before then.
Land interaction with the peninsula should cause some weakening.
When the center reaches the Gulf of California, the sea surface
temperatures are quite warm. While some restrengthening is possible
after the cyclone emerges back over water, Ileana will encounter
increasing westerly wind shear and drier air by hour 48, so it won't
have much time to restrengthen. After that time, weakening is
expected as Ileana's convection is sheared off, and the cyclone is
forecast to become a remnant low in about 72 h. It should be noted
that the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show the cyclone
becoming a remnant low a bit earlier around hour 60. Although the
cyclone will likely dissipate prior to 96 h, a 96 h point is carried
as a remnant low for continuity.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions
of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend.
This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and
mudslides to portions of the area.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of
the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 19.9N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 21.1N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 22.7N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 24.1N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/1800Z 25.3N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 15/0600Z 26.3N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 27.2N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1800Z 29.4N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hagen
NHC Webmaster
1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
In general, fire weather concerns will be on a downward trend across
most areas. Upper-level zonal flow will begin to amplify this
weekend. A series of troughs will impact the West while ridging will
generally remain across the East through the period. Precipitation
and cooler temperatures over a broad area of what have been dry
fuels should moderate the fire environment for many areas west of
the Divide and into some of the Plains.
...Great Basin...
As the trough approaches the region this weekend into early next
week, some areas of dry and windy conditions are possible both along
the Sierra Front as well as into the southern/eastern Basin. Ongoing
large fire activity near the Sierra could experience stronger winds,
but RH may also be higher along with the winds on Sunday. Further
complicating the forecast, cooler temperatures and precipitation
along with the initial weekend trough and another trough by the
middle of next week will reduce fire weather concerns. These areas
will continue to be monitored, but the overall pattern suggests
critical fire weather potential is too low for highlights at this
time.
...Plains...
With troughing expected in the West, troughing along the Rockies is
expected to persist into at least the middle of next week. Winds
across the Plains may increase periodically as the trough/surface
lows intensify. At present, the strongest winds are expected on
Tuesday when the initial trough ejects into the central/northern
Plains. While there are dry fine fuels in place in some areas, there
is also precipitation possible. Unlike the previous southerly flow
from the last several days, greater surface moisture will already be
present and will likely increase to some degree with the persistent
flow from the open Gulf. That said, it is not clear where the
greatest fire weather concerns will develop. Trends will continue to
be monitored in the coming days.
..Wendt.. 09/12/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
In general, fire weather concerns will be on a downward trend across
most areas. Upper-level zonal flow will begin to amplify this
weekend. A series of troughs will impact the West while ridging will
generally remain across the East through the period. Precipitation
and cooler temperatures over a broad area of what have been dry
fuels should moderate the fire environment for many areas west of
the Divide and into some of the Plains.
...Great Basin...
As the trough approaches the region this weekend into early next
week, some areas of dry and windy conditions are possible both along
the Sierra Front as well as into the southern/eastern Basin. Ongoing
large fire activity near the Sierra could experience stronger winds,
but RH may also be higher along with the winds on Sunday. Further
complicating the forecast, cooler temperatures and precipitation
along with the initial weekend trough and another trough by the
middle of next week will reduce fire weather concerns. These areas
will continue to be monitored, but the overall pattern suggests
critical fire weather potential is too low for highlights at this
time.
...Plains...
With troughing expected in the West, troughing along the Rockies is
expected to persist into at least the middle of next week. Winds
across the Plains may increase periodically as the trough/surface
lows intensify. At present, the strongest winds are expected on
Tuesday when the initial trough ejects into the central/northern
Plains. While there are dry fine fuels in place in some areas, there
is also precipitation possible. Unlike the previous southerly flow
from the last several days, greater surface moisture will already be
present and will likely increase to some degree with the persistent
flow from the open Gulf. That said, it is not clear where the
greatest fire weather concerns will develop. Trends will continue to
be monitored in the coming days.
..Wendt.. 09/12/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
In general, fire weather concerns will be on a downward trend across
most areas. Upper-level zonal flow will begin to amplify this
weekend. A series of troughs will impact the West while ridging will
generally remain across the East through the period. Precipitation
and cooler temperatures over a broad area of what have been dry
fuels should moderate the fire environment for many areas west of
the Divide and into some of the Plains.
...Great Basin...
As the trough approaches the region this weekend into early next
week, some areas of dry and windy conditions are possible both along
the Sierra Front as well as into the southern/eastern Basin. Ongoing
large fire activity near the Sierra could experience stronger winds,
but RH may also be higher along with the winds on Sunday. Further
complicating the forecast, cooler temperatures and precipitation
along with the initial weekend trough and another trough by the
middle of next week will reduce fire weather concerns. These areas
will continue to be monitored, but the overall pattern suggests
critical fire weather potential is too low for highlights at this
time.
...Plains...
With troughing expected in the West, troughing along the Rockies is
expected to persist into at least the middle of next week. Winds
across the Plains may increase periodically as the trough/surface
lows intensify. At present, the strongest winds are expected on
Tuesday when the initial trough ejects into the central/northern
Plains. While there are dry fine fuels in place in some areas, there
is also precipitation possible. Unlike the previous southerly flow
from the last several days, greater surface moisture will already be
present and will likely increase to some degree with the persistent
flow from the open Gulf. That said, it is not clear where the
greatest fire weather concerns will develop. Trends will continue to
be monitored in the coming days.
..Wendt.. 09/12/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
In general, fire weather concerns will be on a downward trend across
most areas. Upper-level zonal flow will begin to amplify this
weekend. A series of troughs will impact the West while ridging will
generally remain across the East through the period. Precipitation
and cooler temperatures over a broad area of what have been dry
fuels should moderate the fire environment for many areas west of
the Divide and into some of the Plains.
...Great Basin...
As the trough approaches the region this weekend into early next
week, some areas of dry and windy conditions are possible both along
the Sierra Front as well as into the southern/eastern Basin. Ongoing
large fire activity near the Sierra could experience stronger winds,
but RH may also be higher along with the winds on Sunday. Further
complicating the forecast, cooler temperatures and precipitation
along with the initial weekend trough and another trough by the
middle of next week will reduce fire weather concerns. These areas
will continue to be monitored, but the overall pattern suggests
critical fire weather potential is too low for highlights at this
time.
...Plains...
With troughing expected in the West, troughing along the Rockies is
expected to persist into at least the middle of next week. Winds
across the Plains may increase periodically as the trough/surface
lows intensify. At present, the strongest winds are expected on
Tuesday when the initial trough ejects into the central/northern
Plains. While there are dry fine fuels in place in some areas, there
is also precipitation possible. Unlike the previous southerly flow
from the last several days, greater surface moisture will already be
present and will likely increase to some degree with the persistent
flow from the open Gulf. That said, it is not clear where the
greatest fire weather concerns will develop. Trends will continue to
be monitored in the coming days.
..Wendt.. 09/12/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
In general, fire weather concerns will be on a downward trend across
most areas. Upper-level zonal flow will begin to amplify this
weekend. A series of troughs will impact the West while ridging will
generally remain across the East through the period. Precipitation
and cooler temperatures over a broad area of what have been dry
fuels should moderate the fire environment for many areas west of
the Divide and into some of the Plains.
...Great Basin...
As the trough approaches the region this weekend into early next
week, some areas of dry and windy conditions are possible both along
the Sierra Front as well as into the southern/eastern Basin. Ongoing
large fire activity near the Sierra could experience stronger winds,
but RH may also be higher along with the winds on Sunday. Further
complicating the forecast, cooler temperatures and precipitation
along with the initial weekend trough and another trough by the
middle of next week will reduce fire weather concerns. These areas
will continue to be monitored, but the overall pattern suggests
critical fire weather potential is too low for highlights at this
time.
...Plains...
With troughing expected in the West, troughing along the Rockies is
expected to persist into at least the middle of next week. Winds
across the Plains may increase periodically as the trough/surface
lows intensify. At present, the strongest winds are expected on
Tuesday when the initial trough ejects into the central/northern
Plains. While there are dry fine fuels in place in some areas, there
is also precipitation possible. Unlike the previous southerly flow
from the last several days, greater surface moisture will already be
present and will likely increase to some degree with the persistent
flow from the open Gulf. That said, it is not clear where the
greatest fire weather concerns will develop. Trends will continue to
be monitored in the coming days.
..Wendt.. 09/12/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
In general, fire weather concerns will be on a downward trend across
most areas. Upper-level zonal flow will begin to amplify this
weekend. A series of troughs will impact the West while ridging will
generally remain across the East through the period. Precipitation
and cooler temperatures over a broad area of what have been dry
fuels should moderate the fire environment for many areas west of
the Divide and into some of the Plains.
...Great Basin...
As the trough approaches the region this weekend into early next
week, some areas of dry and windy conditions are possible both along
the Sierra Front as well as into the southern/eastern Basin. Ongoing
large fire activity near the Sierra could experience stronger winds,
but RH may also be higher along with the winds on Sunday. Further
complicating the forecast, cooler temperatures and precipitation
along with the initial weekend trough and another trough by the
middle of next week will reduce fire weather concerns. These areas
will continue to be monitored, but the overall pattern suggests
critical fire weather potential is too low for highlights at this
time.
...Plains...
With troughing expected in the West, troughing along the Rockies is
expected to persist into at least the middle of next week. Winds
across the Plains may increase periodically as the trough/surface
lows intensify. At present, the strongest winds are expected on
Tuesday when the initial trough ejects into the central/northern
Plains. While there are dry fine fuels in place in some areas, there
is also precipitation possible. Unlike the previous southerly flow
from the last several days, greater surface moisture will already be
present and will likely increase to some degree with the persistent
flow from the open Gulf. That said, it is not clear where the
greatest fire weather concerns will develop. Trends will continue to
be monitored in the coming days.
..Wendt.. 09/12/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
In general, fire weather concerns will be on a downward trend across
most areas. Upper-level zonal flow will begin to amplify this
weekend. A series of troughs will impact the West while ridging will
generally remain across the East through the period. Precipitation
and cooler temperatures over a broad area of what have been dry
fuels should moderate the fire environment for many areas west of
the Divide and into some of the Plains.
...Great Basin...
As the trough approaches the region this weekend into early next
week, some areas of dry and windy conditions are possible both along
the Sierra Front as well as into the southern/eastern Basin. Ongoing
large fire activity near the Sierra could experience stronger winds,
but RH may also be higher along with the winds on Sunday. Further
complicating the forecast, cooler temperatures and precipitation
along with the initial weekend trough and another trough by the
middle of next week will reduce fire weather concerns. These areas
will continue to be monitored, but the overall pattern suggests
critical fire weather potential is too low for highlights at this
time.
...Plains...
With troughing expected in the West, troughing along the Rockies is
expected to persist into at least the middle of next week. Winds
across the Plains may increase periodically as the trough/surface
lows intensify. At present, the strongest winds are expected on
Tuesday when the initial trough ejects into the central/northern
Plains. While there are dry fine fuels in place in some areas, there
is also precipitation possible. Unlike the previous southerly flow
from the last several days, greater surface moisture will already be
present and will likely increase to some degree with the persistent
flow from the open Gulf. That said, it is not clear where the
greatest fire weather concerns will develop. Trends will continue to
be monitored in the coming days.
..Wendt.. 09/12/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
In general, fire weather concerns will be on a downward trend across
most areas. Upper-level zonal flow will begin to amplify this
weekend. A series of troughs will impact the West while ridging will
generally remain across the East through the period. Precipitation
and cooler temperatures over a broad area of what have been dry
fuels should moderate the fire environment for many areas west of
the Divide and into some of the Plains.
...Great Basin...
As the trough approaches the region this weekend into early next
week, some areas of dry and windy conditions are possible both along
the Sierra Front as well as into the southern/eastern Basin. Ongoing
large fire activity near the Sierra could experience stronger winds,
but RH may also be higher along with the winds on Sunday. Further
complicating the forecast, cooler temperatures and precipitation
along with the initial weekend trough and another trough by the
middle of next week will reduce fire weather concerns. These areas
will continue to be monitored, but the overall pattern suggests
critical fire weather potential is too low for highlights at this
time.
...Plains...
With troughing expected in the West, troughing along the Rockies is
expected to persist into at least the middle of next week. Winds
across the Plains may increase periodically as the trough/surface
lows intensify. At present, the strongest winds are expected on
Tuesday when the initial trough ejects into the central/northern
Plains. While there are dry fine fuels in place in some areas, there
is also precipitation possible. Unlike the previous southerly flow
from the last several days, greater surface moisture will already be
present and will likely increase to some degree with the persistent
flow from the open Gulf. That said, it is not clear where the
greatest fire weather concerns will develop. Trends will continue to
be monitored in the coming days.
..Wendt.. 09/12/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
In general, fire weather concerns will be on a downward trend across
most areas. Upper-level zonal flow will begin to amplify this
weekend. A series of troughs will impact the West while ridging will
generally remain across the East through the period. Precipitation
and cooler temperatures over a broad area of what have been dry
fuels should moderate the fire environment for many areas west of
the Divide and into some of the Plains.
...Great Basin...
As the trough approaches the region this weekend into early next
week, some areas of dry and windy conditions are possible both along
the Sierra Front as well as into the southern/eastern Basin. Ongoing
large fire activity near the Sierra could experience stronger winds,
but RH may also be higher along with the winds on Sunday. Further
complicating the forecast, cooler temperatures and precipitation
along with the initial weekend trough and another trough by the
middle of next week will reduce fire weather concerns. These areas
will continue to be monitored, but the overall pattern suggests
critical fire weather potential is too low for highlights at this
time.
...Plains...
With troughing expected in the West, troughing along the Rockies is
expected to persist into at least the middle of next week. Winds
across the Plains may increase periodically as the trough/surface
lows intensify. At present, the strongest winds are expected on
Tuesday when the initial trough ejects into the central/northern
Plains. While there are dry fine fuels in place in some areas, there
is also precipitation possible. Unlike the previous southerly flow
from the last several days, greater surface moisture will already be
present and will likely increase to some degree with the persistent
flow from the open Gulf. That said, it is not clear where the
greatest fire weather concerns will develop. Trends will continue to
be monitored in the coming days.
..Wendt.. 09/12/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
In general, fire weather concerns will be on a downward trend across
most areas. Upper-level zonal flow will begin to amplify this
weekend. A series of troughs will impact the West while ridging will
generally remain across the East through the period. Precipitation
and cooler temperatures over a broad area of what have been dry
fuels should moderate the fire environment for many areas west of
the Divide and into some of the Plains.
...Great Basin...
As the trough approaches the region this weekend into early next
week, some areas of dry and windy conditions are possible both along
the Sierra Front as well as into the southern/eastern Basin. Ongoing
large fire activity near the Sierra could experience stronger winds,
but RH may also be higher along with the winds on Sunday. Further
complicating the forecast, cooler temperatures and precipitation
along with the initial weekend trough and another trough by the
middle of next week will reduce fire weather concerns. These areas
will continue to be monitored, but the overall pattern suggests
critical fire weather potential is too low for highlights at this
time.
...Plains...
With troughing expected in the West, troughing along the Rockies is
expected to persist into at least the middle of next week. Winds
across the Plains may increase periodically as the trough/surface
lows intensify. At present, the strongest winds are expected on
Tuesday when the initial trough ejects into the central/northern
Plains. While there are dry fine fuels in place in some areas, there
is also precipitation possible. Unlike the previous southerly flow
from the last several days, greater surface moisture will already be
present and will likely increase to some degree with the persistent
flow from the open Gulf. That said, it is not clear where the
greatest fire weather concerns will develop. Trends will continue to
be monitored in the coming days.
..Wendt.. 09/12/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
In general, fire weather concerns will be on a downward trend across
most areas. Upper-level zonal flow will begin to amplify this
weekend. A series of troughs will impact the West while ridging will
generally remain across the East through the period. Precipitation
and cooler temperatures over a broad area of what have been dry
fuels should moderate the fire environment for many areas west of
the Divide and into some of the Plains.
...Great Basin...
As the trough approaches the region this weekend into early next
week, some areas of dry and windy conditions are possible both along
the Sierra Front as well as into the southern/eastern Basin. Ongoing
large fire activity near the Sierra could experience stronger winds,
but RH may also be higher along with the winds on Sunday. Further
complicating the forecast, cooler temperatures and precipitation
along with the initial weekend trough and another trough by the
middle of next week will reduce fire weather concerns. These areas
will continue to be monitored, but the overall pattern suggests
critical fire weather potential is too low for highlights at this
time.
...Plains...
With troughing expected in the West, troughing along the Rockies is
expected to persist into at least the middle of next week. Winds
across the Plains may increase periodically as the trough/surface
lows intensify. At present, the strongest winds are expected on
Tuesday when the initial trough ejects into the central/northern
Plains. While there are dry fine fuels in place in some areas, there
is also precipitation possible. Unlike the previous southerly flow
from the last several days, greater surface moisture will already be
present and will likely increase to some degree with the persistent
flow from the open Gulf. That said, it is not clear where the
greatest fire weather concerns will develop. Trends will continue to
be monitored in the coming days.
..Wendt.. 09/12/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more1 year ago
MD 2060 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2060
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Areas affected...Northern Wyoming into eastern Montana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 121812Z - 122015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Organized thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage and intensity through the afternoon and evening posing a
threat of large hail and damaging wind. A severe thunderstorm watch
is likely in the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...An upper-level jet max evident in water-vapor imagery
is currently nosing into southern Montana. The large-scale ascent
associated with the approaching upper-level trough is encouraging
early thunderstorm initiation in northern Wyoming. Although this
development is preceding peak diurnal heating, strong forcing is
likely to encourage maintenance and additional development over the
next few hours. Continued destabilization across eastern Montana
will result in a modestly unstable environment (~1000 J/kg MUCAPE)
this afternoon with favorable deep-layer shear (~50 knots)
characterized by long, straight hodographs.
Convection-allowing models suggest that storms will initially be
supercellular posing a threat for severe hail and isolated wind
gusts. Over time, the storms are expected to evolve into hybrid
bowing clusters as they move to the north-northeast. Eventually,
storms are expected to grow upscale further posing a threat for
severe winds, including the potential for significant severe gusts
(i.e., 65 knots). Thus, a severe thunderstorm watch is likely to
address this threat.
..Jirak/Guyer.. 09/12/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...
LAT...LON 44740870 45980793 46840743 47370657 47510543 47250477
46900428 46190419 45410441 44760524 44270601 43650779
43920852 44740870
Read more1 year ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Valid 122000Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible today from northern Florida to
north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe wind gusts
(some significant) are expected across eastern Montana into western
North Dakota this afternoon through early/mid-evening.
...20z...
The D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no updates needed.
A narrow corridor of tornado risk associated with Tropical
Depression Francine and the mid/upper low across the southeast will
continue across central/southern Alabama this afternoon and evening.
See MCD#2061 for more information.
Across the northern Great Plains, potential for significant damaging
winds will increase through the afternoon and evening as ongoing
convection across Montana and Wyoming increases in coverage and tend
to grow upscale through the evening. See previous discussion for
more information on this threat.
..Thornton.. 09/12/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024/
...Northern Great Plains including eastern MT/western ND...
Have upgraded portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota
for a heightened/focused potential for severe storms capable of
large hail and potentially significant-caliber severe wind gusts
later this afternoon through around mid-evening.
Strong-severe thunderstorms are expected, along and behind the
front, as early as early/mid-afternoon, with the most probable
severe potential arising from activity moving north-northeastward
from northern Wyoming and far southern Montana. High-based
supercells and multicells are possible, offering large hail and
severe wind gusts. These storms may aggregate and grow upscale into
one or two bowing clusters, racing north-northeastward accompanied
by a swath of better-organized, potentially significant (65+ kt)
gust potential.
This scenario will be supported by trough-related cooling mid-level
temperatures and steep low/mid-level rates atop a modestly moist
boundary layer, as the exit region of a strong upper-level jet
overspreads the region. MLCAPE of 500-1200 J/kg and 45-55 kt
effective-shear magnitudes will support the severe potential
including fast-moving and relatively long-lived storms into western
North Dakota. The near-surface airmass over the central Dakotas
should stabilize with time and eastward extent tonight, limiting
duration and eastward shift of the threat.
...Southeast...
Current Tropical Depression Francine is forecast to continue moving
generally northward over Mississippi, and to lose definition as it
interacts more closely with the mid/upper-level low. Associated
deep-layer winds will continue to weaken, but low-level shear will
remain favorable through most of the day, well to the east-southeast
of its center. A destabilizing airmass along and south of the
warm/marine front will support a continued, slow inland shift of
supercell potential amid enlarged hodographs. The favorable
environment will be bounded on the west by a dry slot and veering
low-level flow, on the northeast by more stable air in heavy precip
north of the front, and on the south by a gradual weakening of
low-level winds and shear as the cyclone center pulls away and
fills. In the favorable corridor, where inflow parcels are
surface-based, expect effective SRH in the 200-500 m2/s2 range, very
rich moisture, low LCL, and weak MLCINH. In the shorter term, a
tornado threat may persist this afternoon across northern Florida,
while potentially increasing later this afternoon through early
evening near the warm front across southern into central Alabama.
Read more1 year ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Valid 122000Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible today from northern Florida to
north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe wind gusts
(some significant) are expected across eastern Montana into western
North Dakota this afternoon through early/mid-evening.
...20z...
The D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no updates needed.
A narrow corridor of tornado risk associated with Tropical
Depression Francine and the mid/upper low across the southeast will
continue across central/southern Alabama this afternoon and evening.
See MCD#2061 for more information.
Across the northern Great Plains, potential for significant damaging
winds will increase through the afternoon and evening as ongoing
convection across Montana and Wyoming increases in coverage and tend
to grow upscale through the evening. See previous discussion for
more information on this threat.
..Thornton.. 09/12/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024/
...Northern Great Plains including eastern MT/western ND...
Have upgraded portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota
for a heightened/focused potential for severe storms capable of
large hail and potentially significant-caliber severe wind gusts
later this afternoon through around mid-evening.
Strong-severe thunderstorms are expected, along and behind the
front, as early as early/mid-afternoon, with the most probable
severe potential arising from activity moving north-northeastward
from northern Wyoming and far southern Montana. High-based
supercells and multicells are possible, offering large hail and
severe wind gusts. These storms may aggregate and grow upscale into
one or two bowing clusters, racing north-northeastward accompanied
by a swath of better-organized, potentially significant (65+ kt)
gust potential.
This scenario will be supported by trough-related cooling mid-level
temperatures and steep low/mid-level rates atop a modestly moist
boundary layer, as the exit region of a strong upper-level jet
overspreads the region. MLCAPE of 500-1200 J/kg and 45-55 kt
effective-shear magnitudes will support the severe potential
including fast-moving and relatively long-lived storms into western
North Dakota. The near-surface airmass over the central Dakotas
should stabilize with time and eastward extent tonight, limiting
duration and eastward shift of the threat.
...Southeast...
Current Tropical Depression Francine is forecast to continue moving
generally northward over Mississippi, and to lose definition as it
interacts more closely with the mid/upper-level low. Associated
deep-layer winds will continue to weaken, but low-level shear will
remain favorable through most of the day, well to the east-southeast
of its center. A destabilizing airmass along and south of the
warm/marine front will support a continued, slow inland shift of
supercell potential amid enlarged hodographs. The favorable
environment will be bounded on the west by a dry slot and veering
low-level flow, on the northeast by more stable air in heavy precip
north of the front, and on the south by a gradual weakening of
low-level winds and shear as the cyclone center pulls away and
fills. In the favorable corridor, where inflow parcels are
surface-based, expect effective SRH in the 200-500 m2/s2 range, very
rich moisture, low LCL, and weak MLCINH. In the shorter term, a
tornado threat may persist this afternoon across northern Florida,
while potentially increasing later this afternoon through early
evening near the warm front across southern into central Alabama.
Read more
