Aggregator

Issued at 1100 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 130543 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 1100 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 108.6W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 108.6 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and over the Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight additional strengthening is possible before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula. However, weakening is expected to begin by late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, Ileana may result in 4-6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area Friday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM MST Thu Sep 12 the center of Ileana was located near 21.2, -108.6 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 05:43:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 03:28:35 GMT

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Central High Plains to central/western SD... As a Pacific cold front stalls and decays Friday night over the northern Great Plains, a north/south-oriented surface trough should redevelop west by late Saturday afternoon from northeast CO to the western Dakotas. While a minority of models suggest isolated thunderstorms may form along this boundary, the majority suggests isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon in the modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime ahead of the trough. This regime may be aided by a low-amplitude upper-level trough trailing southward from the Canadian Prairies, but neutral to weak mid-level height rises are forecast during the period. Upper flow will be weak near the trough, but sufficient veering of low to mid-level winds with height may yield effective bulk shear of 25-30 kts. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, a couple of storms could produce marginally severe hail. Moderate spatial uncertainty with this corridor of risk, along with the marginal nature of the conditional severe threat, precludes an areal delineation. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-TC Francine should slowly weaken and remain nearly stationary in the Lower MS Valley. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across FL into south GA and southeast AL on Saturday afternoon. Weaknesses in both deep-layer shear and lapse rates above the boundary layer suggest the threat for organized severe storms is negligible. ..Grams.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Central High Plains to central/western SD... As a Pacific cold front stalls and decays Friday night over the northern Great Plains, a north/south-oriented surface trough should redevelop west by late Saturday afternoon from northeast CO to the western Dakotas. While a minority of models suggest isolated thunderstorms may form along this boundary, the majority suggests isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon in the modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime ahead of the trough. This regime may be aided by a low-amplitude upper-level trough trailing southward from the Canadian Prairies, but neutral to weak mid-level height rises are forecast during the period. Upper flow will be weak near the trough, but sufficient veering of low to mid-level winds with height may yield effective bulk shear of 25-30 kts. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, a couple of storms could produce marginally severe hail. Moderate spatial uncertainty with this corridor of risk, along with the marginal nature of the conditional severe threat, precludes an areal delineation. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-TC Francine should slowly weaken and remain nearly stationary in the Lower MS Valley. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across FL into south GA and southeast AL on Saturday afternoon. Weaknesses in both deep-layer shear and lapse rates above the boundary layer suggest the threat for organized severe storms is negligible. ..Grams.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Central High Plains to central/western SD... As a Pacific cold front stalls and decays Friday night over the northern Great Plains, a north/south-oriented surface trough should redevelop west by late Saturday afternoon from northeast CO to the western Dakotas. While a minority of models suggest isolated thunderstorms may form along this boundary, the majority suggests isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon in the modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime ahead of the trough. This regime may be aided by a low-amplitude upper-level trough trailing southward from the Canadian Prairies, but neutral to weak mid-level height rises are forecast during the period. Upper flow will be weak near the trough, but sufficient veering of low to mid-level winds with height may yield effective bulk shear of 25-30 kts. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, a couple of storms could produce marginally severe hail. Moderate spatial uncertainty with this corridor of risk, along with the marginal nature of the conditional severe threat, precludes an areal delineation. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-TC Francine should slowly weaken and remain nearly stationary in the Lower MS Valley. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across FL into south GA and southeast AL on Saturday afternoon. Weaknesses in both deep-layer shear and lapse rates above the boundary layer suggest the threat for organized severe storms is negligible. ..Grams.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Central High Plains to central/western SD... As a Pacific cold front stalls and decays Friday night over the northern Great Plains, a north/south-oriented surface trough should redevelop west by late Saturday afternoon from northeast CO to the western Dakotas. While a minority of models suggest isolated thunderstorms may form along this boundary, the majority suggests isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon in the modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime ahead of the trough. This regime may be aided by a low-amplitude upper-level trough trailing southward from the Canadian Prairies, but neutral to weak mid-level height rises are forecast during the period. Upper flow will be weak near the trough, but sufficient veering of low to mid-level winds with height may yield effective bulk shear of 25-30 kts. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, a couple of storms could produce marginally severe hail. Moderate spatial uncertainty with this corridor of risk, along with the marginal nature of the conditional severe threat, precludes an areal delineation. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-TC Francine should slowly weaken and remain nearly stationary in the Lower MS Valley. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across FL into south GA and southeast AL on Saturday afternoon. Weaknesses in both deep-layer shear and lapse rates above the boundary layer suggest the threat for organized severe storms is negligible. ..Grams.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Central High Plains to central/western SD... As a Pacific cold front stalls and decays Friday night over the northern Great Plains, a north/south-oriented surface trough should redevelop west by late Saturday afternoon from northeast CO to the western Dakotas. While a minority of models suggest isolated thunderstorms may form along this boundary, the majority suggests isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon in the modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime ahead of the trough. This regime may be aided by a low-amplitude upper-level trough trailing southward from the Canadian Prairies, but neutral to weak mid-level height rises are forecast during the period. Upper flow will be weak near the trough, but sufficient veering of low to mid-level winds with height may yield effective bulk shear of 25-30 kts. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, a couple of storms could produce marginally severe hail. Moderate spatial uncertainty with this corridor of risk, along with the marginal nature of the conditional severe threat, precludes an areal delineation. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-TC Francine should slowly weaken and remain nearly stationary in the Lower MS Valley. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across FL into south GA and southeast AL on Saturday afternoon. Weaknesses in both deep-layer shear and lapse rates above the boundary layer suggest the threat for organized severe storms is negligible. ..Grams.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat is expected to develop this morning and afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia and middle Tennessee. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine are expected to move slowly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley today. To the southeast of the upper low, an axis of instability is forecast to be in place across eastern Alabama this morning. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development be likely along and near the instability axis. Storms will move northward across eastern Alabama and middle Tennessee, along and near a corridor of maximized low-level winds. RAP forecast soundings this morning near this corridor have 0-1 km shear near 20 knots in northeast Alabama and around 25 knots in middle Tennessee. This suggests a low-end potential for tornadoes associated with semi-discrete rotating cells. The threat may continue into the afternoon as instability maximizes across the region. A potential for severe gusts will also be possible across Alabama extending southward into the Florida Panhandle, where low-level shear may not be as strong but moderate instability is expected to develop. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat is expected to develop this morning and afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia and middle Tennessee. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine are expected to move slowly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley today. To the southeast of the upper low, an axis of instability is forecast to be in place across eastern Alabama this morning. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development be likely along and near the instability axis. Storms will move northward across eastern Alabama and middle Tennessee, along and near a corridor of maximized low-level winds. RAP forecast soundings this morning near this corridor have 0-1 km shear near 20 knots in northeast Alabama and around 25 knots in middle Tennessee. This suggests a low-end potential for tornadoes associated with semi-discrete rotating cells. The threat may continue into the afternoon as instability maximizes across the region. A potential for severe gusts will also be possible across Alabama extending southward into the Florida Panhandle, where low-level shear may not be as strong but moderate instability is expected to develop. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat is expected to develop this morning and afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia and middle Tennessee. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine are expected to move slowly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley today. To the southeast of the upper low, an axis of instability is forecast to be in place across eastern Alabama this morning. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development be likely along and near the instability axis. Storms will move northward across eastern Alabama and middle Tennessee, along and near a corridor of maximized low-level winds. RAP forecast soundings this morning near this corridor have 0-1 km shear near 20 knots in northeast Alabama and around 25 knots in middle Tennessee. This suggests a low-end potential for tornadoes associated with semi-discrete rotating cells. The threat may continue into the afternoon as instability maximizes across the region. A potential for severe gusts will also be possible across Alabama extending southward into the Florida Panhandle, where low-level shear may not be as strong but moderate instability is expected to develop. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat is expected to develop this morning and afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia and middle Tennessee. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine are expected to move slowly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley today. To the southeast of the upper low, an axis of instability is forecast to be in place across eastern Alabama this morning. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development be likely along and near the instability axis. Storms will move northward across eastern Alabama and middle Tennessee, along and near a corridor of maximized low-level winds. RAP forecast soundings this morning near this corridor have 0-1 km shear near 20 knots in northeast Alabama and around 25 knots in middle Tennessee. This suggests a low-end potential for tornadoes associated with semi-discrete rotating cells. The threat may continue into the afternoon as instability maximizes across the region. A potential for severe gusts will also be possible across Alabama extending southward into the Florida Panhandle, where low-level shear may not be as strong but moderate instability is expected to develop. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat is expected to develop this morning and afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia and middle Tennessee. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine are expected to move slowly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley today. To the southeast of the upper low, an axis of instability is forecast to be in place across eastern Alabama this morning. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development be likely along and near the instability axis. Storms will move northward across eastern Alabama and middle Tennessee, along and near a corridor of maximized low-level winds. RAP forecast soundings this morning near this corridor have 0-1 km shear near 20 knots in northeast Alabama and around 25 knots in middle Tennessee. This suggests a low-end potential for tornadoes associated with semi-discrete rotating cells. The threat may continue into the afternoon as instability maximizes across the region. A potential for severe gusts will also be possible across Alabama extending southward into the Florida Panhandle, where low-level shear may not be as strong but moderate instability is expected to develop. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 130534
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 12 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ileana, located southeast of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Ileana are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Ileana are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 02:36:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 03:28:35 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 130233 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 Ileana continues to slowly gain strength. Deep convection has been increasing near the center and in some fragmented curved bands around the central dense overcast. The latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 40 kt. Some of the outer bands are moving across west-central Mexico and nearing the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The storm is moving north-northwestward at 10 kt toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A north-northwestward to northward motion but at a slower pace is expected during the next few days, taking Ileana across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and into the Gulf of California this weekend. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the HCCA and TVCE aids. Some additional strengthening is possible before Ileana reaches Baja California and most of the models show the storm peaking in intensity in about 12 hours. Around the time the cyclone makes landfall in Baja, a pronounced increase in wind shear and intrusions of dry air, along with land interaction, should cause steady weakening. The shear is expected to increase to near 30 kt in a couple of days, and that should cause Ileana to degenerate to a remnant low by 60 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the majority of the models. Key Messages: 1. Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through the weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 21.0N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 22.3N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 23.7N 109.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 16/0000Z 27.9N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 130232 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 17 17(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 19 25(44) X(44) X(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 1 13(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) LA PAZ 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 130232 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...ILEANA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 108.5W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 108.5 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and over the Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula. However, weakening is expected to begin by late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in 4-6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area Friday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...ILEANA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM MST Thu Sep 12 the center of Ileana was located near 21.0, -108.5 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 130231 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 108.5W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 108.5W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 108.3W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.3N 109.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.7N 109.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.9N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 108.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI