Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122334
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 12 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Ileana, located a couple of hundred miles
southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Ileana are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Ileana are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 23:33:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 21:28:53 GMT

Issued at 500 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 122332 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 500 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...ILEANA HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 108.2W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 108.2 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn to the north at a slightly slower forward speed is expected Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana should pass near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur Friday and Friday night before emerging over the southern Gulf of California by early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before the storm reaches Baja California Sur. After that, gradual weakening is forecast while the cyclone is near or over land. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in 4-6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area Friday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...ILEANA HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE ON FRIDAY... As of 5:00 PM MST Thu Sep 12 the center of Ileana was located near 20.5, -108.2 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

MD 2063 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2063 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0536 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Wyoming and southeastern Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670... Valid 122236Z - 130000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of severe gusts and isolated large hail continues across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KBLX depicts a north/south-oriented band of organized thunderstorms (including a semi-discrete supercell structures and a small bowing segment) tracking northward across portions of northeastern WY and southeastern MT. One of these supercells produced 2-inch hail near Sheridan WY at around 21Z. A long/straight hodograph (around 60 kt of deep-layer shear per RIW VWP) and weak (albeit sufficient) surface-based buoyancy will continue to support semi-discrete supercells and small bowing structures, capable of producing severe gusts and isolated large hail. As strong large-scale ascent within the left-exit region of a midlevel jet continues to cross the area, there may be some tendency for localized upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind risk (aided by steep midlevel lapse rates and the strong deep-layer flow/shear). Severe gusts of 70-80 mph are possible with any upscale-grown convection. ..Weinman.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 44620673 45060681 45540654 46310602 46460576 46390538 46160517 45280544 44650599 44570631 44620673 Read more

MD 2062 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2062 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northeastern Montana and western North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 122158Z - 122330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The potential for severe gusts and instances of large hail will gradually increase over the next few hours across northeastern Montana and western North Dakota. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely within an hour or so. DISCUSSION...Latest water-vapor imagery and regional VWP data indicate the left-exit region of a midlevel jet streak overspreading portions of north-central WY -- ahead of a deep midlevel low centered over southwestern MT. Over the next few hours, related large-scale ascent will overspread northeastern MT, promoting a gradual increase in convective development. Around 50-60 kt of midlevel south-southwesterly flow is contributing to a long/mostly straight hodograph -- characterized by 45-55 kt of effective shear. Despite somewhat cool post-frontal boundary-layer conditions, and lingering inhibition at the base of a robust EML, the strong deep-layer shear and steep midlevel lapse rates will still favor organized clusters and embedded supercells. These storms will be capable of producing severe gusts and instances of large hail. Significant severe gusts (75-85 mph) will be possible, especially with any congealing cold pools that evolve. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for portions of the area within an hour or so. ..Weinman/Smith.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 47170755 47760759 48830747 49030725 49150660 49080371 48920330 47820298 46750333 46590388 46670668 46800734 47170755 Read more

WW 0672 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0672 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0672 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0672 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 672 SEVERE TSTM MT ND 122235Z - 130400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 672 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeastern and Eastern Montana Western North Dakota * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify late this afternoon and evening and spread northeast into the Watch area. The stronger thunderstorms, including a mix of cells and linear clusters, will be potentially capable of a severe threat. Severe gusts will probably be the primary severe hazard (60-85 mph), but large hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorm cores as well (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Glasgow MT to 55 miles northeast of Dickinson ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 670...WW 671... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 21050. ...Smith Read more

WW 0670 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 670 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE CPR TO 25 SW GCC TO 25 WNW GCC TO 30 ESE SHR TO 10 SSE SHR TO 25 W SHR TO 55 WNW SHR TO 40 SSE BIL. ..JEWELL..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 670 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-011-017-025-075-087-103-122240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE WYC005-033-122240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL SHERIDAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0670 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 670 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE CPR TO 25 SW GCC TO 25 WNW GCC TO 30 ESE SHR TO 10 SSE SHR TO 25 W SHR TO 55 WNW SHR TO 40 SSE BIL. ..JEWELL..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 670 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-011-017-025-075-087-103-122240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE WYC005-033-122240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL SHERIDAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0670 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 670 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE CPR TO 25 SW GCC TO 25 WNW GCC TO 30 ESE SHR TO 10 SSE SHR TO 25 W SHR TO 55 WNW SHR TO 40 SSE BIL. ..JEWELL..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 670 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-011-017-025-075-087-103-122240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE WYC005-033-122240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL SHERIDAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 670 SEVERE TSTM MT WY 121855Z - 130100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 670 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 700 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...At least widely scattered severe storms including supercells will initially develop generally near the Montana/Wyoming border vicinity this afternoon, spreading northeastward through the afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles east southeast of Worland WY to 25 miles north of Miles City MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22040. ...Guyer Read more

MD 2061 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTH AL
Mesoscale Discussion 2061 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Areas affected...Parts of central into south AL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121940Z - 122215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some tornado threat could evolve this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Persistent cloudiness has thus far limited destabilization north of a warm front draped across south AL. However, some modest destabilization (with MLCAPE approaching or exceeding 500 J/kg) will be possible from south to north this afternoon as the warm front moves slowly northward. One persistent cell is ongoing northeast of Montgomery, and additional low-topped supercell development will be possible along/north of the warm front through the afternoon. Stronger low-level flow/shear will gradually shift northward in conjunction with the warm front through the afternoon, but will generally remain favorable, with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 150-300 m2/s2 range in areas where modest destabilization is possible. Some tornado threat could evolve with time this afternoon, contingent on the development of additional low-topped supercells. Observational trends will be monitored regarding the need for a Tornado Watch. ..Dean/Guyer.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 32018746 32638764 33078779 33918793 33548696 33218620 32888563 32598540 32088512 31848518 31718528 31708551 31768600 31858669 31958717 32018746 Read more

WW 0671 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0671 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0671 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0671 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0671 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0671 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 671 TORNADO AL 122135Z - 130300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 671 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Alabama * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible SUMMARY...A convective band within a moist and strongly sheared environment will feature embedded quasi-discrete updrafts late this afternoon into the evening. Several supercells will potentially pose a tornado risk before instability wanes late this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Selma AL to 45 miles northeast of Montgomery AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 670... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 20020. ...Smith Read more

Residents of Bellbrook were asked to conserve water as drought has caused the water table to drop swiftly in recent weeks. WHIO-TV Dayton (Ohio), Sept 12, 2024

Apples in a Monroeville orchard were smaller than they ought to be so crews were watering the trees. Pastures near Salem were becoming browner and drier from the lack of rain and need rain for additional grass growth. Farmers are praying for rain. KYW-TV CBS 3 Philadelphia (Pa.), Sept 12, 2024