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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... At least isolated thunderstorm potential is evident across a larger portion of the CONUS on D3, but the threat for organized severe storms remains negligible. A blocking upper pattern will hold in the East, with a stout mid-level anticyclone over the Lower Great Lakes and the remnants of post-TC Francine anchored in the Lower MS Valley. A strong mid/upper jet approaching the Pacific Coast will amplify a closed mid/upper low over northern/central CA by Monday morning. Strengthening large-scale ascent downstream may yield a broadening swath of low-probability thunderstorm potential in the West with only scant/meager buoyancy north of AZ. Afternoon buoyancy should be largest across parts of the central High to northern Great Plains. This could support a few strong, sub-severe storms around to just after peak heating, amid weak/modest deep-layer shear and a benign synoptic pattern. ..Grams.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 1100 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 130543 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 1100 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 108.6W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 108.6 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and over the Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight additional strengthening is possible before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula. However, weakening is expected to begin by late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, Ileana may result in 4-6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area Friday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM MST Thu Sep 12 the center of Ileana was located near 21.2, -108.6 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 05:43:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 03:28:35 GMT

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Central High Plains to central/western SD... As a Pacific cold front stalls and decays Friday night over the northern Great Plains, a north/south-oriented surface trough should redevelop west by late Saturday afternoon from northeast CO to the western Dakotas. While a minority of models suggest isolated thunderstorms may form along this boundary, the majority suggests isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon in the modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime ahead of the trough. This regime may be aided by a low-amplitude upper-level trough trailing southward from the Canadian Prairies, but neutral to weak mid-level height rises are forecast during the period. Upper flow will be weak near the trough, but sufficient veering of low to mid-level winds with height may yield effective bulk shear of 25-30 kts. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, a couple of storms could produce marginally severe hail. Moderate spatial uncertainty with this corridor of risk, along with the marginal nature of the conditional severe threat, precludes an areal delineation. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-TC Francine should slowly weaken and remain nearly stationary in the Lower MS Valley. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across FL into south GA and southeast AL on Saturday afternoon. Weaknesses in both deep-layer shear and lapse rates above the boundary layer suggest the threat for organized severe storms is negligible. ..Grams.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Central High Plains to central/western SD... As a Pacific cold front stalls and decays Friday night over the northern Great Plains, a north/south-oriented surface trough should redevelop west by late Saturday afternoon from northeast CO to the western Dakotas. While a minority of models suggest isolated thunderstorms may form along this boundary, the majority suggests isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon in the modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime ahead of the trough. This regime may be aided by a low-amplitude upper-level trough trailing southward from the Canadian Prairies, but neutral to weak mid-level height rises are forecast during the period. Upper flow will be weak near the trough, but sufficient veering of low to mid-level winds with height may yield effective bulk shear of 25-30 kts. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, a couple of storms could produce marginally severe hail. Moderate spatial uncertainty with this corridor of risk, along with the marginal nature of the conditional severe threat, precludes an areal delineation. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-TC Francine should slowly weaken and remain nearly stationary in the Lower MS Valley. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across FL into south GA and southeast AL on Saturday afternoon. Weaknesses in both deep-layer shear and lapse rates above the boundary layer suggest the threat for organized severe storms is negligible. ..Grams.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Central High Plains to central/western SD... As a Pacific cold front stalls and decays Friday night over the northern Great Plains, a north/south-oriented surface trough should redevelop west by late Saturday afternoon from northeast CO to the western Dakotas. While a minority of models suggest isolated thunderstorms may form along this boundary, the majority suggests isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon in the modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime ahead of the trough. This regime may be aided by a low-amplitude upper-level trough trailing southward from the Canadian Prairies, but neutral to weak mid-level height rises are forecast during the period. Upper flow will be weak near the trough, but sufficient veering of low to mid-level winds with height may yield effective bulk shear of 25-30 kts. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, a couple of storms could produce marginally severe hail. Moderate spatial uncertainty with this corridor of risk, along with the marginal nature of the conditional severe threat, precludes an areal delineation. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-TC Francine should slowly weaken and remain nearly stationary in the Lower MS Valley. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across FL into south GA and southeast AL on Saturday afternoon. Weaknesses in both deep-layer shear and lapse rates above the boundary layer suggest the threat for organized severe storms is negligible. ..Grams.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Central High Plains to central/western SD... As a Pacific cold front stalls and decays Friday night over the northern Great Plains, a north/south-oriented surface trough should redevelop west by late Saturday afternoon from northeast CO to the western Dakotas. While a minority of models suggest isolated thunderstorms may form along this boundary, the majority suggests isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon in the modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime ahead of the trough. This regime may be aided by a low-amplitude upper-level trough trailing southward from the Canadian Prairies, but neutral to weak mid-level height rises are forecast during the period. Upper flow will be weak near the trough, but sufficient veering of low to mid-level winds with height may yield effective bulk shear of 25-30 kts. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, a couple of storms could produce marginally severe hail. Moderate spatial uncertainty with this corridor of risk, along with the marginal nature of the conditional severe threat, precludes an areal delineation. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-TC Francine should slowly weaken and remain nearly stationary in the Lower MS Valley. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across FL into south GA and southeast AL on Saturday afternoon. Weaknesses in both deep-layer shear and lapse rates above the boundary layer suggest the threat for organized severe storms is negligible. ..Grams.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Central High Plains to central/western SD... As a Pacific cold front stalls and decays Friday night over the northern Great Plains, a north/south-oriented surface trough should redevelop west by late Saturday afternoon from northeast CO to the western Dakotas. While a minority of models suggest isolated thunderstorms may form along this boundary, the majority suggests isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon in the modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime ahead of the trough. This regime may be aided by a low-amplitude upper-level trough trailing southward from the Canadian Prairies, but neutral to weak mid-level height rises are forecast during the period. Upper flow will be weak near the trough, but sufficient veering of low to mid-level winds with height may yield effective bulk shear of 25-30 kts. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, a couple of storms could produce marginally severe hail. Moderate spatial uncertainty with this corridor of risk, along with the marginal nature of the conditional severe threat, precludes an areal delineation. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-TC Francine should slowly weaken and remain nearly stationary in the Lower MS Valley. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across FL into south GA and southeast AL on Saturday afternoon. Weaknesses in both deep-layer shear and lapse rates above the boundary layer suggest the threat for organized severe storms is negligible. ..Grams.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat is expected to develop this morning and afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia and middle Tennessee. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine are expected to move slowly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley today. To the southeast of the upper low, an axis of instability is forecast to be in place across eastern Alabama this morning. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development be likely along and near the instability axis. Storms will move northward across eastern Alabama and middle Tennessee, along and near a corridor of maximized low-level winds. RAP forecast soundings this morning near this corridor have 0-1 km shear near 20 knots in northeast Alabama and around 25 knots in middle Tennessee. This suggests a low-end potential for tornadoes associated with semi-discrete rotating cells. The threat may continue into the afternoon as instability maximizes across the region. A potential for severe gusts will also be possible across Alabama extending southward into the Florida Panhandle, where low-level shear may not be as strong but moderate instability is expected to develop. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat is expected to develop this morning and afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia and middle Tennessee. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine are expected to move slowly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley today. To the southeast of the upper low, an axis of instability is forecast to be in place across eastern Alabama this morning. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development be likely along and near the instability axis. Storms will move northward across eastern Alabama and middle Tennessee, along and near a corridor of maximized low-level winds. RAP forecast soundings this morning near this corridor have 0-1 km shear near 20 knots in northeast Alabama and around 25 knots in middle Tennessee. This suggests a low-end potential for tornadoes associated with semi-discrete rotating cells. The threat may continue into the afternoon as instability maximizes across the region. A potential for severe gusts will also be possible across Alabama extending southward into the Florida Panhandle, where low-level shear may not be as strong but moderate instability is expected to develop. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat is expected to develop this morning and afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia and middle Tennessee. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine are expected to move slowly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley today. To the southeast of the upper low, an axis of instability is forecast to be in place across eastern Alabama this morning. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development be likely along and near the instability axis. Storms will move northward across eastern Alabama and middle Tennessee, along and near a corridor of maximized low-level winds. RAP forecast soundings this morning near this corridor have 0-1 km shear near 20 knots in northeast Alabama and around 25 knots in middle Tennessee. This suggests a low-end potential for tornadoes associated with semi-discrete rotating cells. The threat may continue into the afternoon as instability maximizes across the region. A potential for severe gusts will also be possible across Alabama extending southward into the Florida Panhandle, where low-level shear may not be as strong but moderate instability is expected to develop. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat is expected to develop this morning and afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia and middle Tennessee. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine are expected to move slowly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley today. To the southeast of the upper low, an axis of instability is forecast to be in place across eastern Alabama this morning. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development be likely along and near the instability axis. Storms will move northward across eastern Alabama and middle Tennessee, along and near a corridor of maximized low-level winds. RAP forecast soundings this morning near this corridor have 0-1 km shear near 20 knots in northeast Alabama and around 25 knots in middle Tennessee. This suggests a low-end potential for tornadoes associated with semi-discrete rotating cells. The threat may continue into the afternoon as instability maximizes across the region. A potential for severe gusts will also be possible across Alabama extending southward into the Florida Panhandle, where low-level shear may not be as strong but moderate instability is expected to develop. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/13/2024 Read more