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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING... ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains Wednesday night. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. However, the majority of this region lacks dry fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is justified in this region. An Elevated area has been drawn similar to the prior Day3 40% outlook across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply-mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on Wednesday afternoon. Given the upper-end critical conditions expected, a Critical area has been added within the broader Elevated, where these conditions are expected to overlap the driest fuels across southeast Wyoming. ..Bentley.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING... ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains Wednesday night. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. However, the majority of this region lacks dry fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is justified in this region. An Elevated area has been drawn similar to the prior Day3 40% outlook across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply-mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on Wednesday afternoon. Given the upper-end critical conditions expected, a Critical area has been added within the broader Elevated, where these conditions are expected to overlap the driest fuels across southeast Wyoming. ..Bentley.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING... ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains Wednesday night. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. However, the majority of this region lacks dry fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is justified in this region. An Elevated area has been drawn similar to the prior Day3 40% outlook across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply-mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on Wednesday afternoon. Given the upper-end critical conditions expected, a Critical area has been added within the broader Elevated, where these conditions are expected to overlap the driest fuels across southeast Wyoming. ..Bentley.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING... ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains Wednesday night. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. However, the majority of this region lacks dry fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is justified in this region. An Elevated area has been drawn similar to the prior Day3 40% outlook across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply-mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on Wednesday afternoon. Given the upper-end critical conditions expected, a Critical area has been added within the broader Elevated, where these conditions are expected to overlap the driest fuels across southeast Wyoming. ..Bentley.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING... ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains Wednesday night. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. However, the majority of this region lacks dry fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is justified in this region. An Elevated area has been drawn similar to the prior Day3 40% outlook across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply-mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on Wednesday afternoon. Given the upper-end critical conditions expected, a Critical area has been added within the broader Elevated, where these conditions are expected to overlap the driest fuels across southeast Wyoming. ..Bentley.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... A strong area of high pressure will initially dominate the pattern across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS for the first half of the day today. However, by midday lee troughing will start to strengthen across Alberta. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains and result in gusty winds across Montana, the western Dakotas, and into the Nebraska Panhandle/northeast Colorado. The greatest confidence in 20+ mph sustained winds and low relative humidity, in the vicinity of dry fuels, is across eastern Montana and western North Dakota where the Critical delineation is present. Some strong winds are also possible across north-central Montana where relative humidity is expected to be in the low 20s. However, despite conditions that will likely meet Critical criteria, fuels are not that dry across this region and thus, an Elevated area is likely sufficient for the threat. An additional area of dry and breezy conditions is present across southern Wyoming, where winds of 15 to 20 mph are possible with single digit relative humidity. Finally, quite substantial dry and breezy conditions, meeting Critical criteria, are expected across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona. However, fuels in this region are not dry enough to support a significant fire threat. Therefore, no Elevated or Critical areas are warranted. ..Bentley.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... A strong area of high pressure will initially dominate the pattern across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS for the first half of the day today. However, by midday lee troughing will start to strengthen across Alberta. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains and result in gusty winds across Montana, the western Dakotas, and into the Nebraska Panhandle/northeast Colorado. The greatest confidence in 20+ mph sustained winds and low relative humidity, in the vicinity of dry fuels, is across eastern Montana and western North Dakota where the Critical delineation is present. Some strong winds are also possible across north-central Montana where relative humidity is expected to be in the low 20s. However, despite conditions that will likely meet Critical criteria, fuels are not that dry across this region and thus, an Elevated area is likely sufficient for the threat. An additional area of dry and breezy conditions is present across southern Wyoming, where winds of 15 to 20 mph are possible with single digit relative humidity. Finally, quite substantial dry and breezy conditions, meeting Critical criteria, are expected across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona. However, fuels in this region are not dry enough to support a significant fire threat. Therefore, no Elevated or Critical areas are warranted. ..Bentley.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... A strong area of high pressure will initially dominate the pattern across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS for the first half of the day today. However, by midday lee troughing will start to strengthen across Alberta. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains and result in gusty winds across Montana, the western Dakotas, and into the Nebraska Panhandle/northeast Colorado. The greatest confidence in 20+ mph sustained winds and low relative humidity, in the vicinity of dry fuels, is across eastern Montana and western North Dakota where the Critical delineation is present. Some strong winds are also possible across north-central Montana where relative humidity is expected to be in the low 20s. However, despite conditions that will likely meet Critical criteria, fuels are not that dry across this region and thus, an Elevated area is likely sufficient for the threat. An additional area of dry and breezy conditions is present across southern Wyoming, where winds of 15 to 20 mph are possible with single digit relative humidity. Finally, quite substantial dry and breezy conditions, meeting Critical criteria, are expected across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona. However, fuels in this region are not dry enough to support a significant fire threat. Therefore, no Elevated or Critical areas are warranted. ..Bentley.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... A strong area of high pressure will initially dominate the pattern across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS for the first half of the day today. However, by midday lee troughing will start to strengthen across Alberta. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains and result in gusty winds across Montana, the western Dakotas, and into the Nebraska Panhandle/northeast Colorado. The greatest confidence in 20+ mph sustained winds and low relative humidity, in the vicinity of dry fuels, is across eastern Montana and western North Dakota where the Critical delineation is present. Some strong winds are also possible across north-central Montana where relative humidity is expected to be in the low 20s. However, despite conditions that will likely meet Critical criteria, fuels are not that dry across this region and thus, an Elevated area is likely sufficient for the threat. An additional area of dry and breezy conditions is present across southern Wyoming, where winds of 15 to 20 mph are possible with single digit relative humidity. Finally, quite substantial dry and breezy conditions, meeting Critical criteria, are expected across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona. However, fuels in this region are not dry enough to support a significant fire threat. Therefore, no Elevated or Critical areas are warranted. ..Bentley.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... A strong area of high pressure will initially dominate the pattern across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS for the first half of the day today. However, by midday lee troughing will start to strengthen across Alberta. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains and result in gusty winds across Montana, the western Dakotas, and into the Nebraska Panhandle/northeast Colorado. The greatest confidence in 20+ mph sustained winds and low relative humidity, in the vicinity of dry fuels, is across eastern Montana and western North Dakota where the Critical delineation is present. Some strong winds are also possible across north-central Montana where relative humidity is expected to be in the low 20s. However, despite conditions that will likely meet Critical criteria, fuels are not that dry across this region and thus, an Elevated area is likely sufficient for the threat. An additional area of dry and breezy conditions is present across southern Wyoming, where winds of 15 to 20 mph are possible with single digit relative humidity. Finally, quite substantial dry and breezy conditions, meeting Critical criteria, are expected across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona. However, fuels in this region are not dry enough to support a significant fire threat. Therefore, no Elevated or Critical areas are warranted. ..Bentley.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

692
ABPZ20 KNHC 010532
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form off the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development after that
time, and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of
the week. The disturbance is forecast to meander near or just
offshore of the coast of Mexico for much of the week, and then begin
moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico by
this weekend. Regardless of development, this system is expected to
contribute to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by substantial
rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor the progress
of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (96E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have changed little in organization
during the past several hours. Although the system does not yet
appear to have a well-defined surface circulation, environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
two. This system is forecast to meander for the next couple of days
before drifting northward towards the southern coast of Mexico, and
interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along portions of
the coast of southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft will develop across the northern CONUS while upper-level ridging will be present in the south on Wednesday. Thunderstorms are most likely to occur in the Florida Peninsula where daytime heating of a moist airmass and lift from sea breeze boundaries should promote widely scattered to scattered coverage. Weak convection could develop along the Blue Ridge, but increasing ridging aloft through the day should keep thunderstorm potential well below 10%. Additional very isolated activity could develop along parts of the Mogollon Rim, but coverage should remain below 10% here as well. ..Wendt.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft will develop across the northern CONUS while upper-level ridging will be present in the south on Wednesday. Thunderstorms are most likely to occur in the Florida Peninsula where daytime heating of a moist airmass and lift from sea breeze boundaries should promote widely scattered to scattered coverage. Weak convection could develop along the Blue Ridge, but increasing ridging aloft through the day should keep thunderstorm potential well below 10%. Additional very isolated activity could develop along parts of the Mogollon Rim, but coverage should remain below 10% here as well. ..Wendt.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft will develop across the northern CONUS while upper-level ridging will be present in the south on Wednesday. Thunderstorms are most likely to occur in the Florida Peninsula where daytime heating of a moist airmass and lift from sea breeze boundaries should promote widely scattered to scattered coverage. Weak convection could develop along the Blue Ridge, but increasing ridging aloft through the day should keep thunderstorm potential well below 10%. Additional very isolated activity could develop along parts of the Mogollon Rim, but coverage should remain below 10% here as well. ..Wendt.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft will develop across the northern CONUS while upper-level ridging will be present in the south on Wednesday. Thunderstorms are most likely to occur in the Florida Peninsula where daytime heating of a moist airmass and lift from sea breeze boundaries should promote widely scattered to scattered coverage. Weak convection could develop along the Blue Ridge, but increasing ridging aloft through the day should keep thunderstorm potential well below 10%. Additional very isolated activity could develop along parts of the Mogollon Rim, but coverage should remain below 10% here as well. ..Wendt.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft will develop across the northern CONUS while upper-level ridging will be present in the south on Wednesday. Thunderstorms are most likely to occur in the Florida Peninsula where daytime heating of a moist airmass and lift from sea breeze boundaries should promote widely scattered to scattered coverage. Weak convection could develop along the Blue Ridge, but increasing ridging aloft through the day should keep thunderstorm potential well below 10%. Additional very isolated activity could develop along parts of the Mogollon Rim, but coverage should remain below 10% here as well. ..Wendt.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper ridge will extend from CA across the Four Corners region and into the southern Plains today, as multiple strong troughs develop across Canada. One such lead trough will affect parts of the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, eventually weakening the upper ridge over the Northeast. Behind this feature, a broad belt of strong westerlies will develop across the Canadian Rockies, sinking south across the US/CN border late. At the surface, high pressure will affect much of the intermountain West and Plains, with falling pressures across MT during the late afternoon. This developing surface trough will move into the Dakotas overnight, but will remain free of thunderstorms due to dry air. Dry air behind a cold front associated with the aforementioned surface high will push east across the Midwest and toward the lower MS Valley late, further stabilizing the air mass. Strong ascent moving across Lower MI and toward the lower Great Lakes may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms along the cold front, despite limited instability. Otherwise, the most favorable environment for general thunderstorms will be from FL into the eastern Carolinas where upper 60s F to 70s F dewpoints will remain. Shear will weaken over the Southeast throughout the day, but daytime heating as well as areas of weak surface convergence may support scattered thunderstorms over the interior FL Peninsula and near the coastal Carolinas. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper ridge will extend from CA across the Four Corners region and into the southern Plains today, as multiple strong troughs develop across Canada. One such lead trough will affect parts of the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, eventually weakening the upper ridge over the Northeast. Behind this feature, a broad belt of strong westerlies will develop across the Canadian Rockies, sinking south across the US/CN border late. At the surface, high pressure will affect much of the intermountain West and Plains, with falling pressures across MT during the late afternoon. This developing surface trough will move into the Dakotas overnight, but will remain free of thunderstorms due to dry air. Dry air behind a cold front associated with the aforementioned surface high will push east across the Midwest and toward the lower MS Valley late, further stabilizing the air mass. Strong ascent moving across Lower MI and toward the lower Great Lakes may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms along the cold front, despite limited instability. Otherwise, the most favorable environment for general thunderstorms will be from FL into the eastern Carolinas where upper 60s F to 70s F dewpoints will remain. Shear will weaken over the Southeast throughout the day, but daytime heating as well as areas of weak surface convergence may support scattered thunderstorms over the interior FL Peninsula and near the coastal Carolinas. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper ridge will extend from CA across the Four Corners region and into the southern Plains today, as multiple strong troughs develop across Canada. One such lead trough will affect parts of the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, eventually weakening the upper ridge over the Northeast. Behind this feature, a broad belt of strong westerlies will develop across the Canadian Rockies, sinking south across the US/CN border late. At the surface, high pressure will affect much of the intermountain West and Plains, with falling pressures across MT during the late afternoon. This developing surface trough will move into the Dakotas overnight, but will remain free of thunderstorms due to dry air. Dry air behind a cold front associated with the aforementioned surface high will push east across the Midwest and toward the lower MS Valley late, further stabilizing the air mass. Strong ascent moving across Lower MI and toward the lower Great Lakes may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms along the cold front, despite limited instability. Otherwise, the most favorable environment for general thunderstorms will be from FL into the eastern Carolinas where upper 60s F to 70s F dewpoints will remain. Shear will weaken over the Southeast throughout the day, but daytime heating as well as areas of weak surface convergence may support scattered thunderstorms over the interior FL Peninsula and near the coastal Carolinas. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper ridge will extend from CA across the Four Corners region and into the southern Plains today, as multiple strong troughs develop across Canada. One such lead trough will affect parts of the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, eventually weakening the upper ridge over the Northeast. Behind this feature, a broad belt of strong westerlies will develop across the Canadian Rockies, sinking south across the US/CN border late. At the surface, high pressure will affect much of the intermountain West and Plains, with falling pressures across MT during the late afternoon. This developing surface trough will move into the Dakotas overnight, but will remain free of thunderstorms due to dry air. Dry air behind a cold front associated with the aforementioned surface high will push east across the Midwest and toward the lower MS Valley late, further stabilizing the air mass. Strong ascent moving across Lower MI and toward the lower Great Lakes may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms along the cold front, despite limited instability. Otherwise, the most favorable environment for general thunderstorms will be from FL into the eastern Carolinas where upper 60s F to 70s F dewpoints will remain. Shear will weaken over the Southeast throughout the day, but daytime heating as well as areas of weak surface convergence may support scattered thunderstorms over the interior FL Peninsula and near the coastal Carolinas. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 10/01/2024 Read more