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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect central/eastern North Carolina through early evening. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, with isolated strong storms possible across eastern North Carolina through early evening. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...NC... Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA, albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible, with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...Northern High Plains... The primary change for this forecast update is to introduce a Critical risk area to portions of northeast MT into northwestern ND. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in several hours of sustained 20-25 mph with RH reductions into the low 20s and possibly upper teens under the low-level thermal trough. Critical conditions are possible further south along the High Plains into western SD and far northwest NE, but recent high-res guidance suggests such conditions may be more localized compared to areas further north. ...southern New Mexico and Arizona... Breezy, 15-20 mph pressure gradient winds are expected across southern NM into AZ tomorrow afternoon as surface high pressure builds along the southern High Plains. Unseasonably warm temperatures will promote 15-20% RH values by late afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, but fuel status remains somewhat uncertain with ERCs generally near the 50-60th percentile based on recent fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, lee troughing will resume across Alberta, which will result in a strengthening pressure gradient and another cold front moving across the northern Rockies/northern Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible ahead of and behind this cold front. Some drier/windier conditions are possible within the broader Elevated area which extends from north-central Montana to far northeast Colorado. However, confidence in where this may occur is too low at this time to add a Critical delineation. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored regions of southern Wyoming. Fuels are also critically dry in this region and will dry further with dry and breezy conditions Monday. An Elevated area has been added to address this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...Northern High Plains... The primary change for this forecast update is to introduce a Critical risk area to portions of northeast MT into northwestern ND. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in several hours of sustained 20-25 mph with RH reductions into the low 20s and possibly upper teens under the low-level thermal trough. Critical conditions are possible further south along the High Plains into western SD and far northwest NE, but recent high-res guidance suggests such conditions may be more localized compared to areas further north. ...southern New Mexico and Arizona... Breezy, 15-20 mph pressure gradient winds are expected across southern NM into AZ tomorrow afternoon as surface high pressure builds along the southern High Plains. Unseasonably warm temperatures will promote 15-20% RH values by late afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, but fuel status remains somewhat uncertain with ERCs generally near the 50-60th percentile based on recent fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, lee troughing will resume across Alberta, which will result in a strengthening pressure gradient and another cold front moving across the northern Rockies/northern Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible ahead of and behind this cold front. Some drier/windier conditions are possible within the broader Elevated area which extends from north-central Montana to far northeast Colorado. However, confidence in where this may occur is too low at this time to add a Critical delineation. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored regions of southern Wyoming. Fuels are also critically dry in this region and will dry further with dry and breezy conditions Monday. An Elevated area has been added to address this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...Northern High Plains... The primary change for this forecast update is to introduce a Critical risk area to portions of northeast MT into northwestern ND. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in several hours of sustained 20-25 mph with RH reductions into the low 20s and possibly upper teens under the low-level thermal trough. Critical conditions are possible further south along the High Plains into western SD and far northwest NE, but recent high-res guidance suggests such conditions may be more localized compared to areas further north. ...southern New Mexico and Arizona... Breezy, 15-20 mph pressure gradient winds are expected across southern NM into AZ tomorrow afternoon as surface high pressure builds along the southern High Plains. Unseasonably warm temperatures will promote 15-20% RH values by late afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, but fuel status remains somewhat uncertain with ERCs generally near the 50-60th percentile based on recent fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, lee troughing will resume across Alberta, which will result in a strengthening pressure gradient and another cold front moving across the northern Rockies/northern Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible ahead of and behind this cold front. Some drier/windier conditions are possible within the broader Elevated area which extends from north-central Montana to far northeast Colorado. However, confidence in where this may occur is too low at this time to add a Critical delineation. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored regions of southern Wyoming. Fuels are also critically dry in this region and will dry further with dry and breezy conditions Monday. An Elevated area has been added to address this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...Northern High Plains... The primary change for this forecast update is to introduce a Critical risk area to portions of northeast MT into northwestern ND. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in several hours of sustained 20-25 mph with RH reductions into the low 20s and possibly upper teens under the low-level thermal trough. Critical conditions are possible further south along the High Plains into western SD and far northwest NE, but recent high-res guidance suggests such conditions may be more localized compared to areas further north. ...southern New Mexico and Arizona... Breezy, 15-20 mph pressure gradient winds are expected across southern NM into AZ tomorrow afternoon as surface high pressure builds along the southern High Plains. Unseasonably warm temperatures will promote 15-20% RH values by late afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, but fuel status remains somewhat uncertain with ERCs generally near the 50-60th percentile based on recent fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, lee troughing will resume across Alberta, which will result in a strengthening pressure gradient and another cold front moving across the northern Rockies/northern Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible ahead of and behind this cold front. Some drier/windier conditions are possible within the broader Elevated area which extends from north-central Montana to far northeast Colorado. However, confidence in where this may occur is too low at this time to add a Critical delineation. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored regions of southern Wyoming. Fuels are also critically dry in this region and will dry further with dry and breezy conditions Monday. An Elevated area has been added to address this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...Northern High Plains... The primary change for this forecast update is to introduce a Critical risk area to portions of northeast MT into northwestern ND. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in several hours of sustained 20-25 mph with RH reductions into the low 20s and possibly upper teens under the low-level thermal trough. Critical conditions are possible further south along the High Plains into western SD and far northwest NE, but recent high-res guidance suggests such conditions may be more localized compared to areas further north. ...southern New Mexico and Arizona... Breezy, 15-20 mph pressure gradient winds are expected across southern NM into AZ tomorrow afternoon as surface high pressure builds along the southern High Plains. Unseasonably warm temperatures will promote 15-20% RH values by late afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, but fuel status remains somewhat uncertain with ERCs generally near the 50-60th percentile based on recent fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, lee troughing will resume across Alberta, which will result in a strengthening pressure gradient and another cold front moving across the northern Rockies/northern Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible ahead of and behind this cold front. Some drier/windier conditions are possible within the broader Elevated area which extends from north-central Montana to far northeast Colorado. However, confidence in where this may occur is too low at this time to add a Critical delineation. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored regions of southern Wyoming. Fuels are also critically dry in this region and will dry further with dry and breezy conditions Monday. An Elevated area has been added to address this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...Northern High Plains... The primary change for this forecast update is to introduce a Critical risk area to portions of northeast MT into northwestern ND. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in several hours of sustained 20-25 mph with RH reductions into the low 20s and possibly upper teens under the low-level thermal trough. Critical conditions are possible further south along the High Plains into western SD and far northwest NE, but recent high-res guidance suggests such conditions may be more localized compared to areas further north. ...southern New Mexico and Arizona... Breezy, 15-20 mph pressure gradient winds are expected across southern NM into AZ tomorrow afternoon as surface high pressure builds along the southern High Plains. Unseasonably warm temperatures will promote 15-20% RH values by late afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, but fuel status remains somewhat uncertain with ERCs generally near the 50-60th percentile based on recent fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, lee troughing will resume across Alberta, which will result in a strengthening pressure gradient and another cold front moving across the northern Rockies/northern Plains. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible ahead of and behind this cold front. Some drier/windier conditions are possible within the broader Elevated area which extends from north-central Montana to far northeast Colorado. However, confidence in where this may occur is too low at this time to add a Critical delineation. In addition, dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored regions of southern Wyoming. Fuels are also critically dry in this region and will dry further with dry and breezy conditions Monday. An Elevated area has been added to address this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. After that time,
environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by the middle or latter portions of this week. The disturbance is
forecast to meander near or just offshore the Mexican coast for much
of the week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward,
parallel to the coast of Mexico by this weekend. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to contribute to heavy rainfall
across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico already
adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week, and interests
there should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Another area of low pressure in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is currently
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly offshore of
southern Mexico. The system is forecast to move erratically through
mid-week before drifting northward towards the southern Mexican
coast, and environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development while the system remains offshore. Regardless of
development, heavy rain is possible along most of the coast of
southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

MD 2128 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2128 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Areas affected...eastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301724Z - 301930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across eastern North Carolina. This activity should mostly be sub-severe, but sporadic strong gusts 45-60 mph and perhaps a brief spin-up or two will be possible. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the next couple of hours in the vicinity of a surface boundary draped across eastern NC. Temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s F amid dewpoints in the low 70s F are contributing to modest MLCAPE across the region. Poor midlevel lapse rates should largely limit updraft intensity. However, pockets of steeper low-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear should allow for transient organized cells capable of producing gusty winds. Vertically veering low-level winds amid locally enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the surface boundary will be responsible for somewhat enlarged, curved hodographs. Ongoing convection has shown some signs of weak rotation, and this should continue through the afternoon. Given the moist boundary-layer, a brief spin-up or two could occur. The overall environment is expected to remain marginal, and any stronger/organized convection will be sporadic/transient, precluding watch issuance. ..Leitman/Hart.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34407763 35047917 35367948 35987920 36327771 36257675 35787646 34797663 34407763 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A quiet mid-level pattern for thunderstorms is expected across much of the CONUS with zonal flow over the north and a series of anticyclones/ridging across the south. Stable conditions in the north should preclude thunderstorm development with embedded low-amplitude shortwave impulses. Across the south, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over the FL Peninsula, centered on the central portion, where the sea breeze should provide sufficient lift during the afternoon. Very isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where limited mid-level moisture remains. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A quiet mid-level pattern for thunderstorms is expected across much of the CONUS with zonal flow over the north and a series of anticyclones/ridging across the south. Stable conditions in the north should preclude thunderstorm development with embedded low-amplitude shortwave impulses. Across the south, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over the FL Peninsula, centered on the central portion, where the sea breeze should provide sufficient lift during the afternoon. Very isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where limited mid-level moisture remains. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A quiet mid-level pattern for thunderstorms is expected across much of the CONUS with zonal flow over the north and a series of anticyclones/ridging across the south. Stable conditions in the north should preclude thunderstorm development with embedded low-amplitude shortwave impulses. Across the south, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over the FL Peninsula, centered on the central portion, where the sea breeze should provide sufficient lift during the afternoon. Very isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where limited mid-level moisture remains. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A quiet mid-level pattern for thunderstorms is expected across much of the CONUS with zonal flow over the north and a series of anticyclones/ridging across the south. Stable conditions in the north should preclude thunderstorm development with embedded low-amplitude shortwave impulses. Across the south, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over the FL Peninsula, centered on the central portion, where the sea breeze should provide sufficient lift during the afternoon. Very isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where limited mid-level moisture remains. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A quiet mid-level pattern for thunderstorms is expected across much of the CONUS with zonal flow over the north and a series of anticyclones/ridging across the south. Stable conditions in the north should preclude thunderstorm development with embedded low-amplitude shortwave impulses. Across the south, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over the FL Peninsula, centered on the central portion, where the sea breeze should provide sufficient lift during the afternoon. Very isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where limited mid-level moisture remains. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A quiet mid-level pattern for thunderstorms is expected across much of the CONUS with zonal flow over the north and a series of anticyclones/ridging across the south. Stable conditions in the north should preclude thunderstorm development with embedded low-amplitude shortwave impulses. Across the south, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over the FL Peninsula, centered on the central portion, where the sea breeze should provide sufficient lift during the afternoon. Very isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where limited mid-level moisture remains. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday afternoon across the central FL Peninsula where a moderately buoyant air mass persists. A low-amplitude upper impulse will pass to its north across the Southeast, but deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak. In combination with marginal mid-level lapse rates, the severe-storm threat appears negligible. Across eastern NC to far southeast VA, a weakening shortwave trough will progress across the region and offshore Tuesday evening/night. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon. Over the central to lower Great Lakes, a vigorous shortwave trough will move across ON and the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front ahead of this trough will similarly move eastward, reaching Lower MI to IN by afternoon. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, meager surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the front. But warm 700-mb temperatures and weak mid-level lapse rates, especially with southern extent along the front, suggest instability will remain limited and thunderstorm coverage will be sparse. With the bulk of stronger mid/upper flow lagging behind the front, severe storms are not anticipated. Limited mid-level moisture from the Mogollon Rim into southern AZ may promote very isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday afternoon across the central FL Peninsula where a moderately buoyant air mass persists. A low-amplitude upper impulse will pass to its north across the Southeast, but deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak. In combination with marginal mid-level lapse rates, the severe-storm threat appears negligible. Across eastern NC to far southeast VA, a weakening shortwave trough will progress across the region and offshore Tuesday evening/night. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon. Over the central to lower Great Lakes, a vigorous shortwave trough will move across ON and the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front ahead of this trough will similarly move eastward, reaching Lower MI to IN by afternoon. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, meager surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the front. But warm 700-mb temperatures and weak mid-level lapse rates, especially with southern extent along the front, suggest instability will remain limited and thunderstorm coverage will be sparse. With the bulk of stronger mid/upper flow lagging behind the front, severe storms are not anticipated. Limited mid-level moisture from the Mogollon Rim into southern AZ may promote very isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday afternoon across the central FL Peninsula where a moderately buoyant air mass persists. A low-amplitude upper impulse will pass to its north across the Southeast, but deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak. In combination with marginal mid-level lapse rates, the severe-storm threat appears negligible. Across eastern NC to far southeast VA, a weakening shortwave trough will progress across the region and offshore Tuesday evening/night. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon. Over the central to lower Great Lakes, a vigorous shortwave trough will move across ON and the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front ahead of this trough will similarly move eastward, reaching Lower MI to IN by afternoon. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, meager surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the front. But warm 700-mb temperatures and weak mid-level lapse rates, especially with southern extent along the front, suggest instability will remain limited and thunderstorm coverage will be sparse. With the bulk of stronger mid/upper flow lagging behind the front, severe storms are not anticipated. Limited mid-level moisture from the Mogollon Rim into southern AZ may promote very isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday afternoon across the central FL Peninsula where a moderately buoyant air mass persists. A low-amplitude upper impulse will pass to its north across the Southeast, but deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak. In combination with marginal mid-level lapse rates, the severe-storm threat appears negligible. Across eastern NC to far southeast VA, a weakening shortwave trough will progress across the region and offshore Tuesday evening/night. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon. Over the central to lower Great Lakes, a vigorous shortwave trough will move across ON and the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front ahead of this trough will similarly move eastward, reaching Lower MI to IN by afternoon. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, meager surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the front. But warm 700-mb temperatures and weak mid-level lapse rates, especially with southern extent along the front, suggest instability will remain limited and thunderstorm coverage will be sparse. With the bulk of stronger mid/upper flow lagging behind the front, severe storms are not anticipated. Limited mid-level moisture from the Mogollon Rim into southern AZ may promote very isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday afternoon across the central FL Peninsula where a moderately buoyant air mass persists. A low-amplitude upper impulse will pass to its north across the Southeast, but deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak. In combination with marginal mid-level lapse rates, the severe-storm threat appears negligible. Across eastern NC to far southeast VA, a weakening shortwave trough will progress across the region and offshore Tuesday evening/night. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon. Over the central to lower Great Lakes, a vigorous shortwave trough will move across ON and the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front ahead of this trough will similarly move eastward, reaching Lower MI to IN by afternoon. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, meager surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the front. But warm 700-mb temperatures and weak mid-level lapse rates, especially with southern extent along the front, suggest instability will remain limited and thunderstorm coverage will be sparse. With the bulk of stronger mid/upper flow lagging behind the front, severe storms are not anticipated. Limited mid-level moisture from the Mogollon Rim into southern AZ may promote very isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024 Read more