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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper ridge will extend from CA across the Four Corners region and into the southern Plains today, as multiple strong troughs develop across Canada. One such lead trough will affect parts of the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, eventually weakening the upper ridge over the Northeast. Behind this feature, a broad belt of strong westerlies will develop across the Canadian Rockies, sinking south across the US/CN border late. At the surface, high pressure will affect much of the intermountain West and Plains, with falling pressures across MT during the late afternoon. This developing surface trough will move into the Dakotas overnight, but will remain free of thunderstorms due to dry air. Dry air behind a cold front associated with the aforementioned surface high will push east across the Midwest and toward the lower MS Valley late, further stabilizing the air mass. Strong ascent moving across Lower MI and toward the lower Great Lakes may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms along the cold front, despite limited instability. Otherwise, the most favorable environment for general thunderstorms will be from FL into the eastern Carolinas where upper 60s F to 70s F dewpoints will remain. Shear will weaken over the Southeast throughout the day, but daytime heating as well as areas of weak surface convergence may support scattered thunderstorms over the interior FL Peninsula and near the coastal Carolinas. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected for the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity over parts of the CONUS will continue to dwindle through tonight due to loss of heating and weak lift. Scattered storms persist over parts of VA and eastern NC, within a weak surface trough. Much of the unstable air has been overturned from earlier storms, and the gradually cooling boundary layer should preclude any severe chances here. Scattered storms also persist over parts of FL this evening, and a general decrease is expected here as well. To the west, isolated thunderstorms may continue for a couple hours over northeast NM and into the far western OK/TX Panhandles within a weak instability plume and near a cold front. ..Jewell.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected for the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity over parts of the CONUS will continue to dwindle through tonight due to loss of heating and weak lift. Scattered storms persist over parts of VA and eastern NC, within a weak surface trough. Much of the unstable air has been overturned from earlier storms, and the gradually cooling boundary layer should preclude any severe chances here. Scattered storms also persist over parts of FL this evening, and a general decrease is expected here as well. To the west, isolated thunderstorms may continue for a couple hours over northeast NM and into the far western OK/TX Panhandles within a weak instability plume and near a cold front. ..Jewell.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected for the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity over parts of the CONUS will continue to dwindle through tonight due to loss of heating and weak lift. Scattered storms persist over parts of VA and eastern NC, within a weak surface trough. Much of the unstable air has been overturned from earlier storms, and the gradually cooling boundary layer should preclude any severe chances here. Scattered storms also persist over parts of FL this evening, and a general decrease is expected here as well. To the west, isolated thunderstorms may continue for a couple hours over northeast NM and into the far western OK/TX Panhandles within a weak instability plume and near a cold front. ..Jewell.. 10/01/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302346
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to gradually form off the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development after that
time, and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of
the week. The disturbance is forecast to meander near or just
offshore of the coast of Mexico for much of the week, and then
begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of
Mexico by this weekend. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to contribute to heavy rainfall across portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by
substantial rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor
the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (96E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have continued to become better
organized this afternoon. Although the system does not yet appear to
have a well-defined surface circulation, environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form as soon as tonight or
tomorrow. This system is forecast to meander for the next couple of
days before drifting northward towards the southern coast of Mexico,
and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along most of the
coast of southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 30 22:41:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 30 22:41:02 UTC 2024.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302159
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
300 PM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Outlook issued to increase the probability of tropical
cyclone formation for the disturbance near the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. After that time,
environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by the middle or latter portions of this week. The disturbance is
forecast to meander near or just offshore the Mexican coast for much
of the week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward,
parallel to the coast of Mexico by this weekend. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to contribute to heavy rainfall
across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico already
adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week, and interests
there should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (96E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have quickly become better organized
during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression could form as soon as tonight or tomorrow. This system is
forecast to meander for the next couple of days before drifting
northward towards the southern coast of Mexico, and interests there
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rain is possible along most of the coast of
southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Fires and campfires within the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness were restricted as of Tuesday, October 1 due to dry conditions. Visitors to the BWCAW may not ignite, build, maintain, attend or use a fire or campfire in an effort to lower the chances of a wildfire. KARE 11 (Minneapolis, Minn.), Sept 30, 2024

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns will persist intermittently through the extended period across the western half of the CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a general ridging pattern over the southern half of the country, which will continue to favor stronger mid/upper-level flow along the U.S./Canadian border. This regime will favor seasonal to above-normal temperatures for the Plains into the West and mostly dry conditions. Consequently, dry fuels will likely be maintained and gradually expand in coverage for many locations. Fire weather concerns will emerge as shortwave troughs embedded within the mean zonal flow (and their attendant surface lows/fronts) propagate across the northern CONUS. ...D3/Wednesday - Southern Wyoming... Strong zonal flow is expected to persist across the northern CONUS through late D3/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime into the WY Basin with afternoon RH values forecast to reach into the teens to low 20s. Deterministic and ensemble guidance show a signal for 15-25 mph winds, and with ERCs generally near the 90th percentile, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. ...D3/Wednesday - Coastal Southern CA... Upper ridging over the Great Basin combined with a weak coastal low will promote a modest offshore flow regime across southern CA. Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue to dry fuels and maintain very dry conditions. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible - mainly within the higher coastal terrain - late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. ...D5/Friday - northern Great Basin... Latest water-vapor imagery reveals a broad upper trough over the central Pacific, which is forecast to reach the West Coast by D5/Friday. Stronger flow overspreading the Pacific Northwest will promote downslope winds and surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada. While run-to-run trends continue to show some variability regarding the strength of the winds, recent European solutions, which typically under-forecast winds, align with latest GEFS wind probabilities and suggests fire weather concerns may emerge during D5/Friday afternoon. ...D6/Saturday - northern Rockies/High Plains... The upper trough that is forecast to reach the Pacific Northwest on D5/Friday is expected to migrate into the northern Plains through D6/Saturday. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is probable and should support strengthening low-level pressure gradient winds both ahead of and behind the primary surface trough/cold front. While some uncertainty remains regarding the degree of RH reductions across the region, very dry fuels already in place (ERCs well above the 90th percentile) combined with a strong wind signal hint that a fire concern is possible. Further adjustments/expansions into the Plains are possible as guidance continues to come into better alignment. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns will persist intermittently through the extended period across the western half of the CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a general ridging pattern over the southern half of the country, which will continue to favor stronger mid/upper-level flow along the U.S./Canadian border. This regime will favor seasonal to above-normal temperatures for the Plains into the West and mostly dry conditions. Consequently, dry fuels will likely be maintained and gradually expand in coverage for many locations. Fire weather concerns will emerge as shortwave troughs embedded within the mean zonal flow (and their attendant surface lows/fronts) propagate across the northern CONUS. ...D3/Wednesday - Southern Wyoming... Strong zonal flow is expected to persist across the northern CONUS through late D3/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime into the WY Basin with afternoon RH values forecast to reach into the teens to low 20s. Deterministic and ensemble guidance show a signal for 15-25 mph winds, and with ERCs generally near the 90th percentile, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. ...D3/Wednesday - Coastal Southern CA... Upper ridging over the Great Basin combined with a weak coastal low will promote a modest offshore flow regime across southern CA. Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue to dry fuels and maintain very dry conditions. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible - mainly within the higher coastal terrain - late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. ...D5/Friday - northern Great Basin... Latest water-vapor imagery reveals a broad upper trough over the central Pacific, which is forecast to reach the West Coast by D5/Friday. Stronger flow overspreading the Pacific Northwest will promote downslope winds and surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada. While run-to-run trends continue to show some variability regarding the strength of the winds, recent European solutions, which typically under-forecast winds, align with latest GEFS wind probabilities and suggests fire weather concerns may emerge during D5/Friday afternoon. ...D6/Saturday - northern Rockies/High Plains... The upper trough that is forecast to reach the Pacific Northwest on D5/Friday is expected to migrate into the northern Plains through D6/Saturday. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is probable and should support strengthening low-level pressure gradient winds both ahead of and behind the primary surface trough/cold front. While some uncertainty remains regarding the degree of RH reductions across the region, very dry fuels already in place (ERCs well above the 90th percentile) combined with a strong wind signal hint that a fire concern is possible. Further adjustments/expansions into the Plains are possible as guidance continues to come into better alignment. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns will persist intermittently through the extended period across the western half of the CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a general ridging pattern over the southern half of the country, which will continue to favor stronger mid/upper-level flow along the U.S./Canadian border. This regime will favor seasonal to above-normal temperatures for the Plains into the West and mostly dry conditions. Consequently, dry fuels will likely be maintained and gradually expand in coverage for many locations. Fire weather concerns will emerge as shortwave troughs embedded within the mean zonal flow (and their attendant surface lows/fronts) propagate across the northern CONUS. ...D3/Wednesday - Southern Wyoming... Strong zonal flow is expected to persist across the northern CONUS through late D3/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime into the WY Basin with afternoon RH values forecast to reach into the teens to low 20s. Deterministic and ensemble guidance show a signal for 15-25 mph winds, and with ERCs generally near the 90th percentile, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. ...D3/Wednesday - Coastal Southern CA... Upper ridging over the Great Basin combined with a weak coastal low will promote a modest offshore flow regime across southern CA. Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue to dry fuels and maintain very dry conditions. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible - mainly within the higher coastal terrain - late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. ...D5/Friday - northern Great Basin... Latest water-vapor imagery reveals a broad upper trough over the central Pacific, which is forecast to reach the West Coast by D5/Friday. Stronger flow overspreading the Pacific Northwest will promote downslope winds and surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada. While run-to-run trends continue to show some variability regarding the strength of the winds, recent European solutions, which typically under-forecast winds, align with latest GEFS wind probabilities and suggests fire weather concerns may emerge during D5/Friday afternoon. ...D6/Saturday - northern Rockies/High Plains... The upper trough that is forecast to reach the Pacific Northwest on D5/Friday is expected to migrate into the northern Plains through D6/Saturday. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is probable and should support strengthening low-level pressure gradient winds both ahead of and behind the primary surface trough/cold front. While some uncertainty remains regarding the degree of RH reductions across the region, very dry fuels already in place (ERCs well above the 90th percentile) combined with a strong wind signal hint that a fire concern is possible. Further adjustments/expansions into the Plains are possible as guidance continues to come into better alignment. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns will persist intermittently through the extended period across the western half of the CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a general ridging pattern over the southern half of the country, which will continue to favor stronger mid/upper-level flow along the U.S./Canadian border. This regime will favor seasonal to above-normal temperatures for the Plains into the West and mostly dry conditions. Consequently, dry fuels will likely be maintained and gradually expand in coverage for many locations. Fire weather concerns will emerge as shortwave troughs embedded within the mean zonal flow (and their attendant surface lows/fronts) propagate across the northern CONUS. ...D3/Wednesday - Southern Wyoming... Strong zonal flow is expected to persist across the northern CONUS through late D3/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime into the WY Basin with afternoon RH values forecast to reach into the teens to low 20s. Deterministic and ensemble guidance show a signal for 15-25 mph winds, and with ERCs generally near the 90th percentile, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. ...D3/Wednesday - Coastal Southern CA... Upper ridging over the Great Basin combined with a weak coastal low will promote a modest offshore flow regime across southern CA. Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue to dry fuels and maintain very dry conditions. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible - mainly within the higher coastal terrain - late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. ...D5/Friday - northern Great Basin... Latest water-vapor imagery reveals a broad upper trough over the central Pacific, which is forecast to reach the West Coast by D5/Friday. Stronger flow overspreading the Pacific Northwest will promote downslope winds and surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada. While run-to-run trends continue to show some variability regarding the strength of the winds, recent European solutions, which typically under-forecast winds, align with latest GEFS wind probabilities and suggests fire weather concerns may emerge during D5/Friday afternoon. ...D6/Saturday - northern Rockies/High Plains... The upper trough that is forecast to reach the Pacific Northwest on D5/Friday is expected to migrate into the northern Plains through D6/Saturday. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is probable and should support strengthening low-level pressure gradient winds both ahead of and behind the primary surface trough/cold front. While some uncertainty remains regarding the degree of RH reductions across the region, very dry fuels already in place (ERCs well above the 90th percentile) combined with a strong wind signal hint that a fire concern is possible. Further adjustments/expansions into the Plains are possible as guidance continues to come into better alignment. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns will persist intermittently through the extended period across the western half of the CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a general ridging pattern over the southern half of the country, which will continue to favor stronger mid/upper-level flow along the U.S./Canadian border. This regime will favor seasonal to above-normal temperatures for the Plains into the West and mostly dry conditions. Consequently, dry fuels will likely be maintained and gradually expand in coverage for many locations. Fire weather concerns will emerge as shortwave troughs embedded within the mean zonal flow (and their attendant surface lows/fronts) propagate across the northern CONUS. ...D3/Wednesday - Southern Wyoming... Strong zonal flow is expected to persist across the northern CONUS through late D3/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime into the WY Basin with afternoon RH values forecast to reach into the teens to low 20s. Deterministic and ensemble guidance show a signal for 15-25 mph winds, and with ERCs generally near the 90th percentile, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. ...D3/Wednesday - Coastal Southern CA... Upper ridging over the Great Basin combined with a weak coastal low will promote a modest offshore flow regime across southern CA. Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue to dry fuels and maintain very dry conditions. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible - mainly within the higher coastal terrain - late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. ...D5/Friday - northern Great Basin... Latest water-vapor imagery reveals a broad upper trough over the central Pacific, which is forecast to reach the West Coast by D5/Friday. Stronger flow overspreading the Pacific Northwest will promote downslope winds and surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada. While run-to-run trends continue to show some variability regarding the strength of the winds, recent European solutions, which typically under-forecast winds, align with latest GEFS wind probabilities and suggests fire weather concerns may emerge during D5/Friday afternoon. ...D6/Saturday - northern Rockies/High Plains... The upper trough that is forecast to reach the Pacific Northwest on D5/Friday is expected to migrate into the northern Plains through D6/Saturday. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is probable and should support strengthening low-level pressure gradient winds both ahead of and behind the primary surface trough/cold front. While some uncertainty remains regarding the degree of RH reductions across the region, very dry fuels already in place (ERCs well above the 90th percentile) combined with a strong wind signal hint that a fire concern is possible. Further adjustments/expansions into the Plains are possible as guidance continues to come into better alignment. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns will persist intermittently through the extended period across the western half of the CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a general ridging pattern over the southern half of the country, which will continue to favor stronger mid/upper-level flow along the U.S./Canadian border. This regime will favor seasonal to above-normal temperatures for the Plains into the West and mostly dry conditions. Consequently, dry fuels will likely be maintained and gradually expand in coverage for many locations. Fire weather concerns will emerge as shortwave troughs embedded within the mean zonal flow (and their attendant surface lows/fronts) propagate across the northern CONUS. ...D3/Wednesday - Southern Wyoming... Strong zonal flow is expected to persist across the northern CONUS through late D3/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow regime into the WY Basin with afternoon RH values forecast to reach into the teens to low 20s. Deterministic and ensemble guidance show a signal for 15-25 mph winds, and with ERCs generally near the 90th percentile, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. ...D3/Wednesday - Coastal Southern CA... Upper ridging over the Great Basin combined with a weak coastal low will promote a modest offshore flow regime across southern CA. Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue to dry fuels and maintain very dry conditions. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible - mainly within the higher coastal terrain - late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. ...D5/Friday - northern Great Basin... Latest water-vapor imagery reveals a broad upper trough over the central Pacific, which is forecast to reach the West Coast by D5/Friday. Stronger flow overspreading the Pacific Northwest will promote downslope winds and surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada. While run-to-run trends continue to show some variability regarding the strength of the winds, recent European solutions, which typically under-forecast winds, align with latest GEFS wind probabilities and suggests fire weather concerns may emerge during D5/Friday afternoon. ...D6/Saturday - northern Rockies/High Plains... The upper trough that is forecast to reach the Pacific Northwest on D5/Friday is expected to migrate into the northern Plains through D6/Saturday. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is probable and should support strengthening low-level pressure gradient winds both ahead of and behind the primary surface trough/cold front. While some uncertainty remains regarding the degree of RH reductions across the region, very dry fuels already in place (ERCs well above the 90th percentile) combined with a strong wind signal hint that a fire concern is possible. Further adjustments/expansions into the Plains are possible as guidance continues to come into better alignment. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect central/eastern North Carolina through early evening. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, with isolated strong storms possible across eastern North Carolina through early evening. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...NC... Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA, albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible, with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect central/eastern North Carolina through early evening. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, with isolated strong storms possible across eastern North Carolina through early evening. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...NC... Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA, albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible, with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect central/eastern North Carolina through early evening. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, with isolated strong storms possible across eastern North Carolina through early evening. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...NC... Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA, albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible, with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect central/eastern North Carolina through early evening. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, with isolated strong storms possible across eastern North Carolina through early evening. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...NC... Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA, albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible, with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect central/eastern North Carolina through early evening. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, with isolated strong storms possible across eastern North Carolina through early evening. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...NC... Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA, albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible, with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary. Read more