Aggregator

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening within the moist air mass over the FL Peninsula, where wind fields aloft are light. Storm coverage should gradually decrease as the air mass is overturned and boundary layer cools. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out in association with the upper trough moving across eastern Ontario and affecting the lower Great Lakes. Lapse rates and instability remain weak in this region. Easterly winds aloft will also carry isolated thunderstorms over far southern AZ westward along the Mexican border this evening, where they may persist in association with Gulf of CA moisture. Any marginally severe threat thus appears most likely across the international border. ..Jewell.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening within the moist air mass over the FL Peninsula, where wind fields aloft are light. Storm coverage should gradually decrease as the air mass is overturned and boundary layer cools. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out in association with the upper trough moving across eastern Ontario and affecting the lower Great Lakes. Lapse rates and instability remain weak in this region. Easterly winds aloft will also carry isolated thunderstorms over far southern AZ westward along the Mexican border this evening, where they may persist in association with Gulf of CA moisture. Any marginally severe threat thus appears most likely across the international border. ..Jewell.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening within the moist air mass over the FL Peninsula, where wind fields aloft are light. Storm coverage should gradually decrease as the air mass is overturned and boundary layer cools. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out in association with the upper trough moving across eastern Ontario and affecting the lower Great Lakes. Lapse rates and instability remain weak in this region. Easterly winds aloft will also carry isolated thunderstorms over far southern AZ westward along the Mexican border this evening, where they may persist in association with Gulf of CA moisture. Any marginally severe threat thus appears most likely across the international border. ..Jewell.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening within the moist air mass over the FL Peninsula, where wind fields aloft are light. Storm coverage should gradually decrease as the air mass is overturned and boundary layer cools. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out in association with the upper trough moving across eastern Ontario and affecting the lower Great Lakes. Lapse rates and instability remain weak in this region. Easterly winds aloft will also carry isolated thunderstorms over far southern AZ westward along the Mexican border this evening, where they may persist in association with Gulf of CA moisture. Any marginally severe threat thus appears most likely across the international border. ..Jewell.. 10/02/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 1 23:41:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 1 23:41:02 UTC 2024.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 23:36:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 21:28:59 GMT

Issued at 600 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 012334 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 600 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN WESTERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 94.6W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Boca de Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala Border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 94.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion should continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the depression is likely to approach the coast of Mexico within the warning area through tonight and move inland on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight, with further intensification possible until landfall. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area Wednesday morning and are possible in the watch area on Wednesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with this system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN WESTERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 PM CST Tue Oct 1 the center of Eleven-E was located near 15.3, -94.6 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012326
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of southeastern
Mexico.

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP97):
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast
of Acapulco continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. While environmental conditions are generally
conducive for development, the close proximity of Tropical
Depression Eleven-E could limit development during the next day or
two. Late this week, the system is forecast to begin moving slowly
west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico, and gradual
development seems likely. This system is expected to contribute to
heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico
that were already adversely affected by substantial rainfall last
week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 012055 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 The small area of low pressure we have been monitoring for the past couple of days has become well-defined on satellite imagery this afternoon and was confirmed with recent scatterometer data. There has been enough organized deep convection today to consider this a tropical depression, as suggested by the Data-T estimate from TAFB, and the initial wind speed is set to 30 kt in accordance with the max believable scatterometer values. The initial motion is an uncertain 360/4 kt. The depression has been moving northward on the eastern end of the monsoon trough, and this general track is anticipated through landfall with little change seen in the steering flow for the next day or two. However, the model guidance is all over the place, owing to differences in the initial depth of the tropical depression and strength of the circulation associated with the monsoon trough and Invest 97E. The ECMWF model seems to have the best representation of the initial vortex, and the track forecast heavily leans on that model solution, especially given its recent successes with cyclones in that area. However, there is considerable spread in the guidance, and the tropical storm warning is larger than typical based on that uncertainty. Northeasterly shear is expected to continue to affect the depression through landfall, though very warm SSTs and a moist mid-level environment should promote some strengthening. These conditions would seem to favor intensification through landfall, and the first forecast shows a mid-range tropical storm, above most of the model guidance. At this point, extreme rainfall and flash flooding seem to be the biggest threats from this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the coastline of southern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 15.1N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 15.5N 94.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 15.9N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 16.5N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 03/1800Z 17.1N 94.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 20:54:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 21:28:59 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 012053 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ANGEL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 95W 34 17 9(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) SALINA CRUZ 34 1 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 012053 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING LIKELY FOR THAT AREA AND WESTERN GUATEMALA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 94.6W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of southern Mexico from east of Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan and a Tropical Storm Watch from east of Boca de Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala Border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Boca de Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala Border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 94.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the depression is likely to approach the coast of Mexico within the warning area through tonight and move inland on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm this evening or overnight, with further intensification possible until landfall. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on Wednesday morning and are possible in the watch area on Wednesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with this system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING LIKELY FOR THAT AREA AND WESTERN GUATEMALA... As of 3:00 PM CST Tue Oct 1 the center of Eleven-E was located near 15.1, -94.6 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 576 WTPZ21 KNHC 012052 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 94.6W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 94.6W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 94.6W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.5N 94.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.9N 94.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.5N 94.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N 94.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 94.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to persist into the weekend across the north/northwestern CONUS with critical fire weather conditions possible. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the gradual building of an anomalously strong upper ridge over the southern/southwestern CONUS through early next week. This will maintain hot/dry conditions across much of the central and western CONUS that should continue to promote drying fuels. Additionally, this will maintain the strongest mid-level flow largely along the U.S./Canadian border. Fire weather concerns will be possible across the northern two-thirds of the country as shortwave troughs embedded within the mean flow (and their associated surface lows/cold fronts) propagate east along the international border. The most prominent of these will likely impact the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains D4/Friday into D5/Saturday. ...D3/Friday - Northern Great Basin and southern WY... Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper disturbance along and south of the Aleutian Islands. Long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement that this feature will undergo some amplification as it approaches the Pacific Northwest by Friday afternoon. The combination of surface pressure falls ahead of the upper wave and increasing westerly flow over the southern Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will promote dry and windy conditions across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID. Similarly, strengthening westerly winds across the northern Rockies will induce a dry/windy downslope regime through the WY basin. Ensemble guidance continues to show some spread regarding the exact timing of the upper wave, which will influence the overlap of the strongest mid-level winds with peak heating and precludes higher risk probabilities at this time. ...D5/Saturday - Southern WY into the central/northern Plains... A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains through D5/Saturday in tandem with the passage of the upper-level trough. A regime similar to yesterday (Monday) appears likely with dry conditions and only modest temperature reductions behind the front accompanied by very strong (20-30 mph) winds. With no appreciable rainfall forecast for the Plains through the weekend, fuels should remain receptive and will support the fire weather concern. Confidence in reaching critical-criteria RH reductions is highest across southern WY into adjacent parts of NE/CO, but the coverage of sub-20% RH across much of the Plains is somewhat uncertain at this range. Regardless, the overall synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least a wind-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to persist into the weekend across the north/northwestern CONUS with critical fire weather conditions possible. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the gradual building of an anomalously strong upper ridge over the southern/southwestern CONUS through early next week. This will maintain hot/dry conditions across much of the central and western CONUS that should continue to promote drying fuels. Additionally, this will maintain the strongest mid-level flow largely along the U.S./Canadian border. Fire weather concerns will be possible across the northern two-thirds of the country as shortwave troughs embedded within the mean flow (and their associated surface lows/cold fronts) propagate east along the international border. The most prominent of these will likely impact the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains D4/Friday into D5/Saturday. ...D3/Friday - Northern Great Basin and southern WY... Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper disturbance along and south of the Aleutian Islands. Long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement that this feature will undergo some amplification as it approaches the Pacific Northwest by Friday afternoon. The combination of surface pressure falls ahead of the upper wave and increasing westerly flow over the southern Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will promote dry and windy conditions across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID. Similarly, strengthening westerly winds across the northern Rockies will induce a dry/windy downslope regime through the WY basin. Ensemble guidance continues to show some spread regarding the exact timing of the upper wave, which will influence the overlap of the strongest mid-level winds with peak heating and precludes higher risk probabilities at this time. ...D5/Saturday - Southern WY into the central/northern Plains... A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains through D5/Saturday in tandem with the passage of the upper-level trough. A regime similar to yesterday (Monday) appears likely with dry conditions and only modest temperature reductions behind the front accompanied by very strong (20-30 mph) winds. With no appreciable rainfall forecast for the Plains through the weekend, fuels should remain receptive and will support the fire weather concern. Confidence in reaching critical-criteria RH reductions is highest across southern WY into adjacent parts of NE/CO, but the coverage of sub-20% RH across much of the Plains is somewhat uncertain at this range. Regardless, the overall synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least a wind-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to persist into the weekend across the north/northwestern CONUS with critical fire weather conditions possible. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the gradual building of an anomalously strong upper ridge over the southern/southwestern CONUS through early next week. This will maintain hot/dry conditions across much of the central and western CONUS that should continue to promote drying fuels. Additionally, this will maintain the strongest mid-level flow largely along the U.S./Canadian border. Fire weather concerns will be possible across the northern two-thirds of the country as shortwave troughs embedded within the mean flow (and their associated surface lows/cold fronts) propagate east along the international border. The most prominent of these will likely impact the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains D4/Friday into D5/Saturday. ...D3/Friday - Northern Great Basin and southern WY... Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper disturbance along and south of the Aleutian Islands. Long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement that this feature will undergo some amplification as it approaches the Pacific Northwest by Friday afternoon. The combination of surface pressure falls ahead of the upper wave and increasing westerly flow over the southern Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will promote dry and windy conditions across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID. Similarly, strengthening westerly winds across the northern Rockies will induce a dry/windy downslope regime through the WY basin. Ensemble guidance continues to show some spread regarding the exact timing of the upper wave, which will influence the overlap of the strongest mid-level winds with peak heating and precludes higher risk probabilities at this time. ...D5/Saturday - Southern WY into the central/northern Plains... A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains through D5/Saturday in tandem with the passage of the upper-level trough. A regime similar to yesterday (Monday) appears likely with dry conditions and only modest temperature reductions behind the front accompanied by very strong (20-30 mph) winds. With no appreciable rainfall forecast for the Plains through the weekend, fuels should remain receptive and will support the fire weather concern. Confidence in reaching critical-criteria RH reductions is highest across southern WY into adjacent parts of NE/CO, but the coverage of sub-20% RH across much of the Plains is somewhat uncertain at this range. Regardless, the overall synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least a wind-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to persist into the weekend across the north/northwestern CONUS with critical fire weather conditions possible. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the gradual building of an anomalously strong upper ridge over the southern/southwestern CONUS through early next week. This will maintain hot/dry conditions across much of the central and western CONUS that should continue to promote drying fuels. Additionally, this will maintain the strongest mid-level flow largely along the U.S./Canadian border. Fire weather concerns will be possible across the northern two-thirds of the country as shortwave troughs embedded within the mean flow (and their associated surface lows/cold fronts) propagate east along the international border. The most prominent of these will likely impact the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains D4/Friday into D5/Saturday. ...D3/Friday - Northern Great Basin and southern WY... Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper disturbance along and south of the Aleutian Islands. Long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement that this feature will undergo some amplification as it approaches the Pacific Northwest by Friday afternoon. The combination of surface pressure falls ahead of the upper wave and increasing westerly flow over the southern Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will promote dry and windy conditions across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID. Similarly, strengthening westerly winds across the northern Rockies will induce a dry/windy downslope regime through the WY basin. Ensemble guidance continues to show some spread regarding the exact timing of the upper wave, which will influence the overlap of the strongest mid-level winds with peak heating and precludes higher risk probabilities at this time. ...D5/Saturday - Southern WY into the central/northern Plains... A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains through D5/Saturday in tandem with the passage of the upper-level trough. A regime similar to yesterday (Monday) appears likely with dry conditions and only modest temperature reductions behind the front accompanied by very strong (20-30 mph) winds. With no appreciable rainfall forecast for the Plains through the weekend, fuels should remain receptive and will support the fire weather concern. Confidence in reaching critical-criteria RH reductions is highest across southern WY into adjacent parts of NE/CO, but the coverage of sub-20% RH across much of the Plains is somewhat uncertain at this range. Regardless, the overall synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least a wind-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more