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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 05:41:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 03:28:40 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020522
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Oct 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of southeastern
Mexico.

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP97):
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast
of Acapulco, Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. While environmental conditions are generally
conducive for development, the close proximity of Tropical
Depression Eleven-E could limit development during the next day or
two. Late this week, the system is forecast to begin moving slowly
west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico, and gradual
development seems likely. This system is expected to add to heavy
rainfall across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico that
were already adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week,
and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level jet will be present across the northern CONUS on Thursday. Southern portions of the CONUS will experience modest upper-level ridging. At the surface, a remnant cold front will remain along the Gulf Coast with a secondary, stronger cold front moving into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms are most likely to the south of the Gulf Coast boundary. Scattered storms can be expected during the afternoon in the Florida Peninsula. Towards Friday morning, a weak disturbance should promote thunderstorms from southeast Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. An isolated storm or two is possible in northern Missouri overnight Thursday as elevated instability develops in the area. Very weak forcing will keep coverage below 10% should initiation occur. Severe weather is not expected with any activity. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level jet will be present across the northern CONUS on Thursday. Southern portions of the CONUS will experience modest upper-level ridging. At the surface, a remnant cold front will remain along the Gulf Coast with a secondary, stronger cold front moving into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms are most likely to the south of the Gulf Coast boundary. Scattered storms can be expected during the afternoon in the Florida Peninsula. Towards Friday morning, a weak disturbance should promote thunderstorms from southeast Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. An isolated storm or two is possible in northern Missouri overnight Thursday as elevated instability develops in the area. Very weak forcing will keep coverage below 10% should initiation occur. Severe weather is not expected with any activity. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level jet will be present across the northern CONUS on Thursday. Southern portions of the CONUS will experience modest upper-level ridging. At the surface, a remnant cold front will remain along the Gulf Coast with a secondary, stronger cold front moving into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms are most likely to the south of the Gulf Coast boundary. Scattered storms can be expected during the afternoon in the Florida Peninsula. Towards Friday morning, a weak disturbance should promote thunderstorms from southeast Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. An isolated storm or two is possible in northern Missouri overnight Thursday as elevated instability develops in the area. Very weak forcing will keep coverage below 10% should initiation occur. Severe weather is not expected with any activity. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level jet will be present across the northern CONUS on Thursday. Southern portions of the CONUS will experience modest upper-level ridging. At the surface, a remnant cold front will remain along the Gulf Coast with a secondary, stronger cold front moving into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms are most likely to the south of the Gulf Coast boundary. Scattered storms can be expected during the afternoon in the Florida Peninsula. Towards Friday morning, a weak disturbance should promote thunderstorms from southeast Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. An isolated storm or two is possible in northern Missouri overnight Thursday as elevated instability develops in the area. Very weak forcing will keep coverage below 10% should initiation occur. Severe weather is not expected with any activity. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level jet will be present across the northern CONUS on Thursday. Southern portions of the CONUS will experience modest upper-level ridging. At the surface, a remnant cold front will remain along the Gulf Coast with a secondary, stronger cold front moving into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms are most likely to the south of the Gulf Coast boundary. Scattered storms can be expected during the afternoon in the Florida Peninsula. Towards Friday morning, a weak disturbance should promote thunderstorms from southeast Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. An isolated storm or two is possible in northern Missouri overnight Thursday as elevated instability develops in the area. Very weak forcing will keep coverage below 10% should initiation occur. Severe weather is not expected with any activity. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A relatively dry and/or stable pattern will exist across most of the CONUS today, with high pressure centered over the Great Basin and lower MO/mid MS Valleys. Strong west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern tier of states, around the southern periphery of a large upper-level cyclone over central Canada. The greatest chance for general thunderstorms will be relegated to the FL Peninsula, where a stalled boundary will exist. Here, mid 70s F dewpoints and daytime heating will yield around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and midlevel lapse rates will be poor. Shear will be weak, but outflow will likely be produced as storm coverage increases during the afternoon over the interior. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A relatively dry and/or stable pattern will exist across most of the CONUS today, with high pressure centered over the Great Basin and lower MO/mid MS Valleys. Strong west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern tier of states, around the southern periphery of a large upper-level cyclone over central Canada. The greatest chance for general thunderstorms will be relegated to the FL Peninsula, where a stalled boundary will exist. Here, mid 70s F dewpoints and daytime heating will yield around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and midlevel lapse rates will be poor. Shear will be weak, but outflow will likely be produced as storm coverage increases during the afternoon over the interior. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A relatively dry and/or stable pattern will exist across most of the CONUS today, with high pressure centered over the Great Basin and lower MO/mid MS Valleys. Strong west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern tier of states, around the southern periphery of a large upper-level cyclone over central Canada. The greatest chance for general thunderstorms will be relegated to the FL Peninsula, where a stalled boundary will exist. Here, mid 70s F dewpoints and daytime heating will yield around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and midlevel lapse rates will be poor. Shear will be weak, but outflow will likely be produced as storm coverage increases during the afternoon over the interior. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A relatively dry and/or stable pattern will exist across most of the CONUS today, with high pressure centered over the Great Basin and lower MO/mid MS Valleys. Strong west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern tier of states, around the southern periphery of a large upper-level cyclone over central Canada. The greatest chance for general thunderstorms will be relegated to the FL Peninsula, where a stalled boundary will exist. Here, mid 70s F dewpoints and daytime heating will yield around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and midlevel lapse rates will be poor. Shear will be weak, but outflow will likely be produced as storm coverage increases during the afternoon over the interior. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A relatively dry and/or stable pattern will exist across most of the CONUS today, with high pressure centered over the Great Basin and lower MO/mid MS Valleys. Strong west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern tier of states, around the southern periphery of a large upper-level cyclone over central Canada. The greatest chance for general thunderstorms will be relegated to the FL Peninsula, where a stalled boundary will exist. Here, mid 70s F dewpoints and daytime heating will yield around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and midlevel lapse rates will be poor. Shear will be weak, but outflow will likely be produced as storm coverage increases during the afternoon over the interior. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A relatively dry and/or stable pattern will exist across most of the CONUS today, with high pressure centered over the Great Basin and lower MO/mid MS Valleys. Strong west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern tier of states, around the southern periphery of a large upper-level cyclone over central Canada. The greatest chance for general thunderstorms will be relegated to the FL Peninsula, where a stalled boundary will exist. Here, mid 70s F dewpoints and daytime heating will yield around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and midlevel lapse rates will be poor. Shear will be weak, but outflow will likely be produced as storm coverage increases during the afternoon over the interior. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 10/02/2024 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 02:35:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 03:28:40 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020234 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 The depression has not become better organized this evening. Deep convection has been separating from the low-level center, which is now exposed to the east of the thunderstorms. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, near the high end of the satellite estimates. The system is close to the coast, currently over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and appears to be moving northward at about 5 kt. The models don't have a good handle on this system, likely because it is weak and relatively small. The official track forecast continues to lean heavily on the ECMWF solution, taking the system inland over southern Mexico on Wednesday. There could be a little strengthening before the depression reaches the coast, but given its current structure, significant intensification is not expected. The main impact from the system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it moves inland over southern or southeastern Mexico on Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for that area. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 15.6N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 15.9N 94.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 16.5N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 03/1200Z 17.0N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 989 FOPZ11 KNHC 020234 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ANGEL 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 95W 34 14 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SALINA CRUZ 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 265 WTPZ21 KNHC 020233 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 94.6W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 94.6W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 94.6W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.9N 94.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.5N 94.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.0N 94.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 94.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 900 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 264 WTPZ31 KNHC 020233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN WESTERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 94.6W ABOUT 55 MI...95 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Boca de Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala Border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the depression will likely move inland on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible before the system reaches the coast, and it could become a tropical storm by early Wednesday. Weakening is expected after landfall. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area Wednesday morning and are possible in the watch area on Wednesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with this system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN WESTERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 9:00 PM CST Tue Oct 1 the center of Eleven-E was located near 15.6, -94.6 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening within the moist air mass over the FL Peninsula, where wind fields aloft are light. Storm coverage should gradually decrease as the air mass is overturned and boundary layer cools. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out in association with the upper trough moving across eastern Ontario and affecting the lower Great Lakes. Lapse rates and instability remain weak in this region. Easterly winds aloft will also carry isolated thunderstorms over far southern AZ westward along the Mexican border this evening, where they may persist in association with Gulf of CA moisture. Any marginally severe threat thus appears most likely across the international border. ..Jewell.. 10/02/2024 Read more