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Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 022043 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 96.5W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 96.5 West. The depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow and erratic motion is expected tonight and Thursday, followed by a northward motion Thursday night through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday night or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast, and the system could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday through Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Wed Oct 2 the center of Eleven-E was located near 14.1, -96.5 with movement SSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 96.5W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 96.5W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 96.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 96.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.5N 96.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.0N 96.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 96.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.7N 98.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 96.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin into the northern Rockies and central/northern Great Plains late this week into the weekend followed by decreasing potential for widespread fire weather concerns heading into next week. Confidence continues to increase in the arrival of an upper trough (currently noted over the northeastern Pacific in water-vapor imagery) on D3/Friday across the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to quickly progress east into the northern Plains with an associated surface cyclone and attendant dry cold front. These features will support strengthening winds over regions with very dry fuels with the potential for critical fire weather conditions. Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are forecast to continue across much of the southwest to central CONUS through the middle of next week as an upper ridge builds east in the wake of the Fri/Sat system. Widespread fuel drying is anticipated during this period due to the hot/dry conditions, but relatively benign surface gradient winds should limit the potential for widespread wind-driven fire concerns. ...D3/Friday... Widespread fire weather concerns are anticipated on Friday. The greatest fire weather threat is expected to emerge across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID where dry downslope flow will increase through the day with the arrival of strong westerly mid-level winds. Forecast guidance continues to trend towards stronger wind speeds with subsequent model runs, with the most recent GEFS showing 50-70% probability for sustained winds of 30 mph in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. This trend also suggests that the areal coverage of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be greater than previously expected, warranting not only higher risk probabilities, but an expansion of the 40% risk area into portions of southwest MT in the lee of the Bitterroot Mountains. Further east, increasing westerly flow across the WY Basin should promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions within a similar, but slightly weaker, downslope regime. Across the Plains, southerly winds are expected to strengthen across NE into the Dakotas as a surface low attendant to the approaching upper wave deepens in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. Moisture recovery is expected to be minimal in the wake of today's (Wednesday's) frontal passage across the northern Plains. RH reductions within the dry return flow regime remain somewhat uncertain, but a strong wind signal among a variety of guidance suites coupled with very dry fuels (ERCs above the 90th percentile) should promote a fire weather concern. ...D4/Saturday... A dry cold front is expected to push southeast across the northern to central Plains through the day on Saturday as the upper wave and attendant surface low progress quickly into the Great Lakes region. Sustained northwesterly winds behind the front are expected to be fairly strong, most likely between 20-30 mph, with the strongest winds expected across the Dakotas. Confidence in the fire weather potential is greatest across southern WY into western NE where the driest conditions will overlap with 20+ mph winds. Confidence in critical conditions decreases with northward extent where cooler post-frontal air may limit RH reductions. Further forecast refinements are expected, but in general this synoptic regime will likely resemble the recent frontal intrusion into the Plains on Mon, Sept 30, which resulted in widespread critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin into the northern Rockies and central/northern Great Plains late this week into the weekend followed by decreasing potential for widespread fire weather concerns heading into next week. Confidence continues to increase in the arrival of an upper trough (currently noted over the northeastern Pacific in water-vapor imagery) on D3/Friday across the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to quickly progress east into the northern Plains with an associated surface cyclone and attendant dry cold front. These features will support strengthening winds over regions with very dry fuels with the potential for critical fire weather conditions. Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are forecast to continue across much of the southwest to central CONUS through the middle of next week as an upper ridge builds east in the wake of the Fri/Sat system. Widespread fuel drying is anticipated during this period due to the hot/dry conditions, but relatively benign surface gradient winds should limit the potential for widespread wind-driven fire concerns. ...D3/Friday... Widespread fire weather concerns are anticipated on Friday. The greatest fire weather threat is expected to emerge across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID where dry downslope flow will increase through the day with the arrival of strong westerly mid-level winds. Forecast guidance continues to trend towards stronger wind speeds with subsequent model runs, with the most recent GEFS showing 50-70% probability for sustained winds of 30 mph in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. This trend also suggests that the areal coverage of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be greater than previously expected, warranting not only higher risk probabilities, but an expansion of the 40% risk area into portions of southwest MT in the lee of the Bitterroot Mountains. Further east, increasing westerly flow across the WY Basin should promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions within a similar, but slightly weaker, downslope regime. Across the Plains, southerly winds are expected to strengthen across NE into the Dakotas as a surface low attendant to the approaching upper wave deepens in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. Moisture recovery is expected to be minimal in the wake of today's (Wednesday's) frontal passage across the northern Plains. RH reductions within the dry return flow regime remain somewhat uncertain, but a strong wind signal among a variety of guidance suites coupled with very dry fuels (ERCs above the 90th percentile) should promote a fire weather concern. ...D4/Saturday... A dry cold front is expected to push southeast across the northern to central Plains through the day on Saturday as the upper wave and attendant surface low progress quickly into the Great Lakes region. Sustained northwesterly winds behind the front are expected to be fairly strong, most likely between 20-30 mph, with the strongest winds expected across the Dakotas. Confidence in the fire weather potential is greatest across southern WY into western NE where the driest conditions will overlap with 20+ mph winds. Confidence in critical conditions decreases with northward extent where cooler post-frontal air may limit RH reductions. Further forecast refinements are expected, but in general this synoptic regime will likely resemble the recent frontal intrusion into the Plains on Mon, Sept 30, which resulted in widespread critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin into the northern Rockies and central/northern Great Plains late this week into the weekend followed by decreasing potential for widespread fire weather concerns heading into next week. Confidence continues to increase in the arrival of an upper trough (currently noted over the northeastern Pacific in water-vapor imagery) on D3/Friday across the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to quickly progress east into the northern Plains with an associated surface cyclone and attendant dry cold front. These features will support strengthening winds over regions with very dry fuels with the potential for critical fire weather conditions. Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are forecast to continue across much of the southwest to central CONUS through the middle of next week as an upper ridge builds east in the wake of the Fri/Sat system. Widespread fuel drying is anticipated during this period due to the hot/dry conditions, but relatively benign surface gradient winds should limit the potential for widespread wind-driven fire concerns. ...D3/Friday... Widespread fire weather concerns are anticipated on Friday. The greatest fire weather threat is expected to emerge across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID where dry downslope flow will increase through the day with the arrival of strong westerly mid-level winds. Forecast guidance continues to trend towards stronger wind speeds with subsequent model runs, with the most recent GEFS showing 50-70% probability for sustained winds of 30 mph in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. This trend also suggests that the areal coverage of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be greater than previously expected, warranting not only higher risk probabilities, but an expansion of the 40% risk area into portions of southwest MT in the lee of the Bitterroot Mountains. Further east, increasing westerly flow across the WY Basin should promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions within a similar, but slightly weaker, downslope regime. Across the Plains, southerly winds are expected to strengthen across NE into the Dakotas as a surface low attendant to the approaching upper wave deepens in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. Moisture recovery is expected to be minimal in the wake of today's (Wednesday's) frontal passage across the northern Plains. RH reductions within the dry return flow regime remain somewhat uncertain, but a strong wind signal among a variety of guidance suites coupled with very dry fuels (ERCs above the 90th percentile) should promote a fire weather concern. ...D4/Saturday... A dry cold front is expected to push southeast across the northern to central Plains through the day on Saturday as the upper wave and attendant surface low progress quickly into the Great Lakes region. Sustained northwesterly winds behind the front are expected to be fairly strong, most likely between 20-30 mph, with the strongest winds expected across the Dakotas. Confidence in the fire weather potential is greatest across southern WY into western NE where the driest conditions will overlap with 20+ mph winds. Confidence in critical conditions decreases with northward extent where cooler post-frontal air may limit RH reductions. Further forecast refinements are expected, but in general this synoptic regime will likely resemble the recent frontal intrusion into the Plains on Mon, Sept 30, which resulted in widespread critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin into the northern Rockies and central/northern Great Plains late this week into the weekend followed by decreasing potential for widespread fire weather concerns heading into next week. Confidence continues to increase in the arrival of an upper trough (currently noted over the northeastern Pacific in water-vapor imagery) on D3/Friday across the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to quickly progress east into the northern Plains with an associated surface cyclone and attendant dry cold front. These features will support strengthening winds over regions with very dry fuels with the potential for critical fire weather conditions. Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are forecast to continue across much of the southwest to central CONUS through the middle of next week as an upper ridge builds east in the wake of the Fri/Sat system. Widespread fuel drying is anticipated during this period due to the hot/dry conditions, but relatively benign surface gradient winds should limit the potential for widespread wind-driven fire concerns. ...D3/Friday... Widespread fire weather concerns are anticipated on Friday. The greatest fire weather threat is expected to emerge across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID where dry downslope flow will increase through the day with the arrival of strong westerly mid-level winds. Forecast guidance continues to trend towards stronger wind speeds with subsequent model runs, with the most recent GEFS showing 50-70% probability for sustained winds of 30 mph in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. This trend also suggests that the areal coverage of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be greater than previously expected, warranting not only higher risk probabilities, but an expansion of the 40% risk area into portions of southwest MT in the lee of the Bitterroot Mountains. Further east, increasing westerly flow across the WY Basin should promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions within a similar, but slightly weaker, downslope regime. Across the Plains, southerly winds are expected to strengthen across NE into the Dakotas as a surface low attendant to the approaching upper wave deepens in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. Moisture recovery is expected to be minimal in the wake of today's (Wednesday's) frontal passage across the northern Plains. RH reductions within the dry return flow regime remain somewhat uncertain, but a strong wind signal among a variety of guidance suites coupled with very dry fuels (ERCs above the 90th percentile) should promote a fire weather concern. ...D4/Saturday... A dry cold front is expected to push southeast across the northern to central Plains through the day on Saturday as the upper wave and attendant surface low progress quickly into the Great Lakes region. Sustained northwesterly winds behind the front are expected to be fairly strong, most likely between 20-30 mph, with the strongest winds expected across the Dakotas. Confidence in the fire weather potential is greatest across southern WY into western NE where the driest conditions will overlap with 20+ mph winds. Confidence in critical conditions decreases with northward extent where cooler post-frontal air may limit RH reductions. Further forecast refinements are expected, but in general this synoptic regime will likely resemble the recent frontal intrusion into the Plains on Mon, Sept 30, which resulted in widespread critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin into the northern Rockies and central/northern Great Plains late this week into the weekend followed by decreasing potential for widespread fire weather concerns heading into next week. Confidence continues to increase in the arrival of an upper trough (currently noted over the northeastern Pacific in water-vapor imagery) on D3/Friday across the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to quickly progress east into the northern Plains with an associated surface cyclone and attendant dry cold front. These features will support strengthening winds over regions with very dry fuels with the potential for critical fire weather conditions. Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are forecast to continue across much of the southwest to central CONUS through the middle of next week as an upper ridge builds east in the wake of the Fri/Sat system. Widespread fuel drying is anticipated during this period due to the hot/dry conditions, but relatively benign surface gradient winds should limit the potential for widespread wind-driven fire concerns. ...D3/Friday... Widespread fire weather concerns are anticipated on Friday. The greatest fire weather threat is expected to emerge across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID where dry downslope flow will increase through the day with the arrival of strong westerly mid-level winds. Forecast guidance continues to trend towards stronger wind speeds with subsequent model runs, with the most recent GEFS showing 50-70% probability for sustained winds of 30 mph in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. This trend also suggests that the areal coverage of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be greater than previously expected, warranting not only higher risk probabilities, but an expansion of the 40% risk area into portions of southwest MT in the lee of the Bitterroot Mountains. Further east, increasing westerly flow across the WY Basin should promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions within a similar, but slightly weaker, downslope regime. Across the Plains, southerly winds are expected to strengthen across NE into the Dakotas as a surface low attendant to the approaching upper wave deepens in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. Moisture recovery is expected to be minimal in the wake of today's (Wednesday's) frontal passage across the northern Plains. RH reductions within the dry return flow regime remain somewhat uncertain, but a strong wind signal among a variety of guidance suites coupled with very dry fuels (ERCs above the 90th percentile) should promote a fire weather concern. ...D4/Saturday... A dry cold front is expected to push southeast across the northern to central Plains through the day on Saturday as the upper wave and attendant surface low progress quickly into the Great Lakes region. Sustained northwesterly winds behind the front are expected to be fairly strong, most likely between 20-30 mph, with the strongest winds expected across the Dakotas. Confidence in the fire weather potential is greatest across southern WY into western NE where the driest conditions will overlap with 20+ mph winds. Confidence in critical conditions decreases with northward extent where cooler post-frontal air may limit RH reductions. Further forecast refinements are expected, but in general this synoptic regime will likely resemble the recent frontal intrusion into the Plains on Mon, Sept 30, which resulted in widespread critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin into the northern Rockies and central/northern Great Plains late this week into the weekend followed by decreasing potential for widespread fire weather concerns heading into next week. Confidence continues to increase in the arrival of an upper trough (currently noted over the northeastern Pacific in water-vapor imagery) on D3/Friday across the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to quickly progress east into the northern Plains with an associated surface cyclone and attendant dry cold front. These features will support strengthening winds over regions with very dry fuels with the potential for critical fire weather conditions. Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are forecast to continue across much of the southwest to central CONUS through the middle of next week as an upper ridge builds east in the wake of the Fri/Sat system. Widespread fuel drying is anticipated during this period due to the hot/dry conditions, but relatively benign surface gradient winds should limit the potential for widespread wind-driven fire concerns. ...D3/Friday... Widespread fire weather concerns are anticipated on Friday. The greatest fire weather threat is expected to emerge across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID where dry downslope flow will increase through the day with the arrival of strong westerly mid-level winds. Forecast guidance continues to trend towards stronger wind speeds with subsequent model runs, with the most recent GEFS showing 50-70% probability for sustained winds of 30 mph in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. This trend also suggests that the areal coverage of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be greater than previously expected, warranting not only higher risk probabilities, but an expansion of the 40% risk area into portions of southwest MT in the lee of the Bitterroot Mountains. Further east, increasing westerly flow across the WY Basin should promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions within a similar, but slightly weaker, downslope regime. Across the Plains, southerly winds are expected to strengthen across NE into the Dakotas as a surface low attendant to the approaching upper wave deepens in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. Moisture recovery is expected to be minimal in the wake of today's (Wednesday's) frontal passage across the northern Plains. RH reductions within the dry return flow regime remain somewhat uncertain, but a strong wind signal among a variety of guidance suites coupled with very dry fuels (ERCs above the 90th percentile) should promote a fire weather concern. ...D4/Saturday... A dry cold front is expected to push southeast across the northern to central Plains through the day on Saturday as the upper wave and attendant surface low progress quickly into the Great Lakes region. Sustained northwesterly winds behind the front are expected to be fairly strong, most likely between 20-30 mph, with the strongest winds expected across the Dakotas. Confidence in the fire weather potential is greatest across southern WY into western NE where the driest conditions will overlap with 20+ mph winds. Confidence in critical conditions decreases with northward extent where cooler post-frontal air may limit RH reductions. Further forecast refinements are expected, but in general this synoptic regime will likely resemble the recent frontal intrusion into the Plains on Mon, Sept 30, which resulted in widespread critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin into the northern Rockies and central/northern Great Plains late this week into the weekend followed by decreasing potential for widespread fire weather concerns heading into next week. Confidence continues to increase in the arrival of an upper trough (currently noted over the northeastern Pacific in water-vapor imagery) on D3/Friday across the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to quickly progress east into the northern Plains with an associated surface cyclone and attendant dry cold front. These features will support strengthening winds over regions with very dry fuels with the potential for critical fire weather conditions. Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are forecast to continue across much of the southwest to central CONUS through the middle of next week as an upper ridge builds east in the wake of the Fri/Sat system. Widespread fuel drying is anticipated during this period due to the hot/dry conditions, but relatively benign surface gradient winds should limit the potential for widespread wind-driven fire concerns. ...D3/Friday... Widespread fire weather concerns are anticipated on Friday. The greatest fire weather threat is expected to emerge across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID where dry downslope flow will increase through the day with the arrival of strong westerly mid-level winds. Forecast guidance continues to trend towards stronger wind speeds with subsequent model runs, with the most recent GEFS showing 50-70% probability for sustained winds of 30 mph in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. This trend also suggests that the areal coverage of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be greater than previously expected, warranting not only higher risk probabilities, but an expansion of the 40% risk area into portions of southwest MT in the lee of the Bitterroot Mountains. Further east, increasing westerly flow across the WY Basin should promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions within a similar, but slightly weaker, downslope regime. Across the Plains, southerly winds are expected to strengthen across NE into the Dakotas as a surface low attendant to the approaching upper wave deepens in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. Moisture recovery is expected to be minimal in the wake of today's (Wednesday's) frontal passage across the northern Plains. RH reductions within the dry return flow regime remain somewhat uncertain, but a strong wind signal among a variety of guidance suites coupled with very dry fuels (ERCs above the 90th percentile) should promote a fire weather concern. ...D4/Saturday... A dry cold front is expected to push southeast across the northern to central Plains through the day on Saturday as the upper wave and attendant surface low progress quickly into the Great Lakes region. Sustained northwesterly winds behind the front are expected to be fairly strong, most likely between 20-30 mph, with the strongest winds expected across the Dakotas. Confidence in the fire weather potential is greatest across southern WY into western NE where the driest conditions will overlap with 20+ mph winds. Confidence in critical conditions decreases with northward extent where cooler post-frontal air may limit RH reductions. Further forecast refinements are expected, but in general this synoptic regime will likely resemble the recent frontal intrusion into the Plains on Mon, Sept 30, which resulted in widespread critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the outlook. Previous forecast discussion appended below. ..Mosier.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the outlook. Previous forecast discussion appended below. ..Mosier.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the outlook. Previous forecast discussion appended below. ..Mosier.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the outlook. Previous forecast discussion appended below. ..Mosier.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the outlook. Previous forecast discussion appended below. ..Mosier.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the outlook. Previous forecast discussion appended below. ..Mosier.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the outlook. Previous forecast discussion appended below. ..Mosier.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... Stronger flow aloft will remain confined to the northern half of the U.S. Friday, with a couple of troughs progressing through this belt of flow -- one moving across the northwestern quarter of the country, and a second crossing the Great Lakes and eventually reaching New England. While both of these upper systems will be accompanied by a surface cold front, low-level moisture -- and thus any appreciable instability -- will remain confined to the southeastern quarter of the CONUS. Showers and a few thunderstorms will again be possible -- mainly across the Gulf Coast states. However, with flow aloft remaining weak in tandem with synoptic-scale upper ridging, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... Stronger flow aloft will remain confined to the northern half of the U.S. Friday, with a couple of troughs progressing through this belt of flow -- one moving across the northwestern quarter of the country, and a second crossing the Great Lakes and eventually reaching New England. While both of these upper systems will be accompanied by a surface cold front, low-level moisture -- and thus any appreciable instability -- will remain confined to the southeastern quarter of the CONUS. Showers and a few thunderstorms will again be possible -- mainly across the Gulf Coast states. However, with flow aloft remaining weak in tandem with synoptic-scale upper ridging, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... Stronger flow aloft will remain confined to the northern half of the U.S. Friday, with a couple of troughs progressing through this belt of flow -- one moving across the northwestern quarter of the country, and a second crossing the Great Lakes and eventually reaching New England. While both of these upper systems will be accompanied by a surface cold front, low-level moisture -- and thus any appreciable instability -- will remain confined to the southeastern quarter of the CONUS. Showers and a few thunderstorms will again be possible -- mainly across the Gulf Coast states. However, with flow aloft remaining weak in tandem with synoptic-scale upper ridging, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 10/02/2024 Read more