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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will make quick progress across the northern Plains and move into the upper Mississippi Valley by early evening. A deep surface cyclone within the Canadian Prairie will move east along with its parent upper-level system. Attendant to this cyclone, a cold front will quickly through Minnesota, Wisconsin, and eventually much of Michigan by early Sunday morning. ...Upper-Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Ahead of the cold front, some moisture return is expected to occur. However, this moisture return will have no connection to the Gulf due to a previous frontal passage to near the Gulf Coast. Lack of low-level moisture will likely preclude any potential for surface-based storms. By early evening, strong mid-level ascent, linear frontal forcing, and 850 mb warm air advection should promote scattered storm development from the Mississippi Valley into parts of Wisconsin. Deep-layer winds will be strong, but effective shear will only be marginal given the elevated nature of the convection. 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE could support some stronger updrafts that could produce small hail. The marginal effective shear and messy storm modes should preclude any greater risk. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will make quick progress across the northern Plains and move into the upper Mississippi Valley by early evening. A deep surface cyclone within the Canadian Prairie will move east along with its parent upper-level system. Attendant to this cyclone, a cold front will quickly through Minnesota, Wisconsin, and eventually much of Michigan by early Sunday morning. ...Upper-Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Ahead of the cold front, some moisture return is expected to occur. However, this moisture return will have no connection to the Gulf due to a previous frontal passage to near the Gulf Coast. Lack of low-level moisture will likely preclude any potential for surface-based storms. By early evening, strong mid-level ascent, linear frontal forcing, and 850 mb warm air advection should promote scattered storm development from the Mississippi Valley into parts of Wisconsin. Deep-layer winds will be strong, but effective shear will only be marginal given the elevated nature of the convection. 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE could support some stronger updrafts that could produce small hail. The marginal effective shear and messy storm modes should preclude any greater risk. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will make quick progress across the northern Plains and move into the upper Mississippi Valley by early evening. A deep surface cyclone within the Canadian Prairie will move east along with its parent upper-level system. Attendant to this cyclone, a cold front will quickly through Minnesota, Wisconsin, and eventually much of Michigan by early Sunday morning. ...Upper-Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Ahead of the cold front, some moisture return is expected to occur. However, this moisture return will have no connection to the Gulf due to a previous frontal passage to near the Gulf Coast. Lack of low-level moisture will likely preclude any potential for surface-based storms. By early evening, strong mid-level ascent, linear frontal forcing, and 850 mb warm air advection should promote scattered storm development from the Mississippi Valley into parts of Wisconsin. Deep-layer winds will be strong, but effective shear will only be marginal given the elevated nature of the convection. 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE could support some stronger updrafts that could produce small hail. The marginal effective shear and messy storm modes should preclude any greater risk. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will make quick progress across the northern Plains and move into the upper Mississippi Valley by early evening. A deep surface cyclone within the Canadian Prairie will move east along with its parent upper-level system. Attendant to this cyclone, a cold front will quickly through Minnesota, Wisconsin, and eventually much of Michigan by early Sunday morning. ...Upper-Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Ahead of the cold front, some moisture return is expected to occur. However, this moisture return will have no connection to the Gulf due to a previous frontal passage to near the Gulf Coast. Lack of low-level moisture will likely preclude any potential for surface-based storms. By early evening, strong mid-level ascent, linear frontal forcing, and 850 mb warm air advection should promote scattered storm development from the Mississippi Valley into parts of Wisconsin. Deep-layer winds will be strong, but effective shear will only be marginal given the elevated nature of the convection. 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE could support some stronger updrafts that could produce small hail. The marginal effective shear and messy storm modes should preclude any greater risk. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON...NORTHERN NEVADA...FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this trough, a strong surface cyclone will develop in Alberta, which will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across much of the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. In addition, 60+ mph of mid-level flow will move across the Northwest and northern Great Basin. This stronger mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across southeast Oregon and northern Nevada and vicinity, which will result in even stronger winds across this region. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with relative humidity ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent. Given the critically dry nature of the fuels in this area, a Critical delineation was warranted. As the pressure gradient tightens across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, strong winds are expected to develop both across southern Wyoming and from the Nebraska Panhandle northward across the western Dakotas. Single-digit relative humidities are forecast across southern Wyoming with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity in the Plains. An Elevated delineation is warranted for both areas, and if winds trend stronger in Wyoming or relative humidity drier in the Plains, a Critical area may also need to be considered in these areas in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON...NORTHERN NEVADA...FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this trough, a strong surface cyclone will develop in Alberta, which will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across much of the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. In addition, 60+ mph of mid-level flow will move across the Northwest and northern Great Basin. This stronger mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across southeast Oregon and northern Nevada and vicinity, which will result in even stronger winds across this region. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with relative humidity ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent. Given the critically dry nature of the fuels in this area, a Critical delineation was warranted. As the pressure gradient tightens across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, strong winds are expected to develop both across southern Wyoming and from the Nebraska Panhandle northward across the western Dakotas. Single-digit relative humidities are forecast across southern Wyoming with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity in the Plains. An Elevated delineation is warranted for both areas, and if winds trend stronger in Wyoming or relative humidity drier in the Plains, a Critical area may also need to be considered in these areas in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON...NORTHERN NEVADA...FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this trough, a strong surface cyclone will develop in Alberta, which will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across much of the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. In addition, 60+ mph of mid-level flow will move across the Northwest and northern Great Basin. This stronger mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across southeast Oregon and northern Nevada and vicinity, which will result in even stronger winds across this region. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with relative humidity ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent. Given the critically dry nature of the fuels in this area, a Critical delineation was warranted. As the pressure gradient tightens across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, strong winds are expected to develop both across southern Wyoming and from the Nebraska Panhandle northward across the western Dakotas. Single-digit relative humidities are forecast across southern Wyoming with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity in the Plains. An Elevated delineation is warranted for both areas, and if winds trend stronger in Wyoming or relative humidity drier in the Plains, a Critical area may also need to be considered in these areas in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON...NORTHERN NEVADA...FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this trough, a strong surface cyclone will develop in Alberta, which will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across much of the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. In addition, 60+ mph of mid-level flow will move across the Northwest and northern Great Basin. This stronger mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across southeast Oregon and northern Nevada and vicinity, which will result in even stronger winds across this region. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with relative humidity ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent. Given the critically dry nature of the fuels in this area, a Critical delineation was warranted. As the pressure gradient tightens across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, strong winds are expected to develop both across southern Wyoming and from the Nebraska Panhandle northward across the western Dakotas. Single-digit relative humidities are forecast across southern Wyoming with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity in the Plains. An Elevated delineation is warranted for both areas, and if winds trend stronger in Wyoming or relative humidity drier in the Plains, a Critical area may also need to be considered in these areas in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON...NORTHERN NEVADA...FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this trough, a strong surface cyclone will develop in Alberta, which will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across much of the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. In addition, 60+ mph of mid-level flow will move across the Northwest and northern Great Basin. This stronger mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across southeast Oregon and northern Nevada and vicinity, which will result in even stronger winds across this region. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with relative humidity ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent. Given the critically dry nature of the fuels in this area, a Critical delineation was warranted. As the pressure gradient tightens across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, strong winds are expected to develop both across southern Wyoming and from the Nebraska Panhandle northward across the western Dakotas. Single-digit relative humidities are forecast across southern Wyoming with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity in the Plains. An Elevated delineation is warranted for both areas, and if winds trend stronger in Wyoming or relative humidity drier in the Plains, a Critical area may also need to be considered in these areas in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will traverse the western CONUS today. As this occurs, high pressure will also build into the northern Plains. Some breezy conditions are probable this afternoon in the wake of a cold front across the central Plains. However, relative humidities will not be that low (25-30 percent), and the strongest winds will likely be displaced south of the driest fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is warranted today. However, warm and dry conditions will prevail across most of the western CONUS and result in continued drying of fuels. ..Bentley.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will traverse the western CONUS today. As this occurs, high pressure will also build into the northern Plains. Some breezy conditions are probable this afternoon in the wake of a cold front across the central Plains. However, relative humidities will not be that low (25-30 percent), and the strongest winds will likely be displaced south of the driest fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is warranted today. However, warm and dry conditions will prevail across most of the western CONUS and result in continued drying of fuels. ..Bentley.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will traverse the western CONUS today. As this occurs, high pressure will also build into the northern Plains. Some breezy conditions are probable this afternoon in the wake of a cold front across the central Plains. However, relative humidities will not be that low (25-30 percent), and the strongest winds will likely be displaced south of the driest fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is warranted today. However, warm and dry conditions will prevail across most of the western CONUS and result in continued drying of fuels. ..Bentley.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will traverse the western CONUS today. As this occurs, high pressure will also build into the northern Plains. Some breezy conditions are probable this afternoon in the wake of a cold front across the central Plains. However, relative humidities will not be that low (25-30 percent), and the strongest winds will likely be displaced south of the driest fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is warranted today. However, warm and dry conditions will prevail across most of the western CONUS and result in continued drying of fuels. ..Bentley.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 06:00:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 03:34:49 GMT

Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 030539 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 1200 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 96.6W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 96.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slow northward motion is expected to continue through Friday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move toward southern Mexico and make landfall within the warning area tonight or Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is possible until the system reaches the coast of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area later today and Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... As of 12:00 AM CST Thu Oct 3 the center of Eleven-E was located near 14.3, -96.6 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 05:39:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 03:34:49 GMT

133
ABPZ20 KNHC 030528
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Oct 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of southeastern
Mexico.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some limited
development is possible while the low moves slowly northward or
north-northeastward during the next couple of days. Atmospheric
conditions should become less conducive and prevent further
development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Stronger flow aloft will continue to be confined to the northern tier of the CONUS on Friday. Two shortwave troughs will progress through this corridor. One will move from the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast while another will shift through the Northwest into the northern Rockies. Ridging aloft will be maintained in the southern two-thirds of the CONUS. A remnant surface boundary will be situated along the Gulf Coast. Another cold front will be draped from the Great Lakes into the central Plains. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing early Friday morning in the Mid-Mississippi Valley, as modest cooling aloft occurs on the southern flank of the passing shortwave and weak warm advection occurs with the low-level jet. Additional thunderstorms are possible with a weak northward-moving disturbance in the central/southern Appalachians as well as along the weak Gulf Coast boundary. Diurnally driven storms are likely in the Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with any of this activity. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Stronger flow aloft will continue to be confined to the northern tier of the CONUS on Friday. Two shortwave troughs will progress through this corridor. One will move from the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast while another will shift through the Northwest into the northern Rockies. Ridging aloft will be maintained in the southern two-thirds of the CONUS. A remnant surface boundary will be situated along the Gulf Coast. Another cold front will be draped from the Great Lakes into the central Plains. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing early Friday morning in the Mid-Mississippi Valley, as modest cooling aloft occurs on the southern flank of the passing shortwave and weak warm advection occurs with the low-level jet. Additional thunderstorms are possible with a weak northward-moving disturbance in the central/southern Appalachians as well as along the weak Gulf Coast boundary. Diurnally driven storms are likely in the Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with any of this activity. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more