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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Stronger flow aloft will continue to be confined to the northern tier of the CONUS on Friday. Two shortwave troughs will progress through this corridor. One will move from the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast while another will shift through the Northwest into the northern Rockies. Ridging aloft will be maintained in the southern two-thirds of the CONUS. A remnant surface boundary will be situated along the Gulf Coast. Another cold front will be draped from the Great Lakes into the central Plains. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing early Friday morning in the Mid-Mississippi Valley, as modest cooling aloft occurs on the southern flank of the passing shortwave and weak warm advection occurs with the low-level jet. Additional thunderstorms are possible with a weak northward-moving disturbance in the central/southern Appalachians as well as along the weak Gulf Coast boundary. Diurnally driven storms are likely in the Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with any of this activity. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Stronger flow aloft will continue to be confined to the northern tier of the CONUS on Friday. Two shortwave troughs will progress through this corridor. One will move from the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast while another will shift through the Northwest into the northern Rockies. Ridging aloft will be maintained in the southern two-thirds of the CONUS. A remnant surface boundary will be situated along the Gulf Coast. Another cold front will be draped from the Great Lakes into the central Plains. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing early Friday morning in the Mid-Mississippi Valley, as modest cooling aloft occurs on the southern flank of the passing shortwave and weak warm advection occurs with the low-level jet. Additional thunderstorms are possible with a weak northward-moving disturbance in the central/southern Appalachians as well as along the weak Gulf Coast boundary. Diurnally driven storms are likely in the Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with any of this activity. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Stronger flow aloft will continue to be confined to the northern tier of the CONUS on Friday. Two shortwave troughs will progress through this corridor. One will move from the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast while another will shift through the Northwest into the northern Rockies. Ridging aloft will be maintained in the southern two-thirds of the CONUS. A remnant surface boundary will be situated along the Gulf Coast. Another cold front will be draped from the Great Lakes into the central Plains. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing early Friday morning in the Mid-Mississippi Valley, as modest cooling aloft occurs on the southern flank of the passing shortwave and weak warm advection occurs with the low-level jet. Additional thunderstorms are possible with a weak northward-moving disturbance in the central/southern Appalachians as well as along the weak Gulf Coast boundary. Diurnally driven storms are likely in the Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with any of this activity. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

Kentucky’s Level 1 Drought Declarations for all counties was lifted due to rainfall from the remnants of Hurricane Helene. WNKY-TV (Bowling Green, Ky.), Oct 3, 2024 The Office of the State Climatologist and the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet, in coordination with the Kentucky Drought Mitigation Team, have issued a Level 1 Drought Declaration for the commonwealth. The parts of the state most affected are portions of Western and Central Kentucky and parts of the Bluegrass region. TristateHomepage.com (Evansville, Ind.), Sept 23, 2024

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Weak deep layer flow will persist across the southern half of the CONUS, where mean upper level ridging will remain in place. A more amplified/fast upper flow patter will develop over the northern U.S./Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will sag south and east across much of the Midwest. Meager boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will limit instability, but a few thunderstorms may develop overnight across IA/IL. Severe storms are not expected. Isolated thunderstorm are expected further south across the central Gulf Coast region where deeper boundary layer moisture will be in place. Sufficient instability and a weak disturbance moving northward across the Gulf into the South will support isolated to scatter thunderstorms from the central Gulf Coast into FL. Weak deep layer flow and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Weak deep layer flow will persist across the southern half of the CONUS, where mean upper level ridging will remain in place. A more amplified/fast upper flow patter will develop over the northern U.S./Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will sag south and east across much of the Midwest. Meager boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will limit instability, but a few thunderstorms may develop overnight across IA/IL. Severe storms are not expected. Isolated thunderstorm are expected further south across the central Gulf Coast region where deeper boundary layer moisture will be in place. Sufficient instability and a weak disturbance moving northward across the Gulf into the South will support isolated to scatter thunderstorms from the central Gulf Coast into FL. Weak deep layer flow and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Weak deep layer flow will persist across the southern half of the CONUS, where mean upper level ridging will remain in place. A more amplified/fast upper flow patter will develop over the northern U.S./Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will sag south and east across much of the Midwest. Meager boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will limit instability, but a few thunderstorms may develop overnight across IA/IL. Severe storms are not expected. Isolated thunderstorm are expected further south across the central Gulf Coast region where deeper boundary layer moisture will be in place. Sufficient instability and a weak disturbance moving northward across the Gulf into the South will support isolated to scatter thunderstorms from the central Gulf Coast into FL. Weak deep layer flow and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Weak deep layer flow will persist across the southern half of the CONUS, where mean upper level ridging will remain in place. A more amplified/fast upper flow patter will develop over the northern U.S./Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will sag south and east across much of the Midwest. Meager boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will limit instability, but a few thunderstorms may develop overnight across IA/IL. Severe storms are not expected. Isolated thunderstorm are expected further south across the central Gulf Coast region where deeper boundary layer moisture will be in place. Sufficient instability and a weak disturbance moving northward across the Gulf into the South will support isolated to scatter thunderstorms from the central Gulf Coast into FL. Weak deep layer flow and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Weak deep layer flow will persist across the southern half of the CONUS, where mean upper level ridging will remain in place. A more amplified/fast upper flow patter will develop over the northern U.S./Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will sag south and east across much of the Midwest. Meager boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will limit instability, but a few thunderstorms may develop overnight across IA/IL. Severe storms are not expected. Isolated thunderstorm are expected further south across the central Gulf Coast region where deeper boundary layer moisture will be in place. Sufficient instability and a weak disturbance moving northward across the Gulf into the South will support isolated to scatter thunderstorms from the central Gulf Coast into FL. Weak deep layer flow and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 02:41:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 03:34:49 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030239 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 The depression has changed little during the past several hours, and it remains embedded in a larger-scale trough that extends from offshore of Manzanillo northeastward to the central Gulf of Mexico. The system itself continues to produce patches of deep convection, and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with 2.0 Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression has been drifting southwestward, but the models generally agree that an abrupt turn to the north should occur on Thursday, with that motion bringing the system to the coast of southern Mexico Thursday night or Friday. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the east to be in better agreement with the latest models, but this prediction still lies to the west of most of the model solutions. Strengthening is possible before the cyclone reaches the coast, but since the system remains disorganized and embedded in a larger trough, significant intensification seems unlikely. The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the model guidance. The main threat from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall that will likely continue in portions of southern Mexico during the next day or two. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.2N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 14.4N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 14.9N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 15.8N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0000Z 16.8N 96.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 030239 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ANGEL 34 3 13(16) 11(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) P ANGEL 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATULCO 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 95W 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 030239 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 96.7W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 96.7 West. The depression is moving toward the southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn to the north is expected on Thursday with that motion continuing through Friday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move toward southern Mexico and make landfall there Thursday night or Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is possible until the system reaches the coast of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area late Thursday and Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... As of 9:00 PM CST Wed Oct 2 the center of Eleven-E was located near 14.2, -96.7 with movement SW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 833 WTPZ21 KNHC 030238 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 96.7W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 96.7W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 96.7W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.4N 96.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.9N 96.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.8N 96.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.8N 96.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 96.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...01z Update... Isolated thunderstorms may continue across portions of the FL Peninsula the next few hours. Weak vertical shear and poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...01z Update... Isolated thunderstorms may continue across portions of the FL Peninsula the next few hours. Weak vertical shear and poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...01z Update... Isolated thunderstorms may continue across portions of the FL Peninsula the next few hours. Weak vertical shear and poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...01z Update... Isolated thunderstorms may continue across portions of the FL Peninsula the next few hours. Weak vertical shear and poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 23:50:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 21:35:00 GMT